This month, a new approach. I’ve picked examples from the Big 2.5 and Toyota in four categories: passenger car, full-sized pickup truck, truck-based SUV and small SUV/CUV. I've also chosen one brand-new model from each of the 2.5. If this approach finds favor, we’ll follow these 19 vehicles through the calendar year, comparing their U.S. sales each month with sales from 2005 and 2006. I've also shown major rebates ($5K and over) and the "employee pricing" incentives from 2005. Once we’ve looked at how well these key vehicles are selling, we’ll look at overall sales to see how the individual models’ sales track with the overall sales trends from their makers. Capisco? Here we go!
[Note: Clicking on the links below will bring up a graph showing sales for that vehicle for the past two years and 2007 YTD. Use your browser's "back" button to return to the article. The graphs show sales for each month. Green links with double underlines are not linked to the graphs.]
Here are the charts for last year's best selling passenger cars from their respective manufacturers: Impala (GM), Fusion (Ford), Chrysler 300 (Chrysler Group) and last but not least by a long run, Camry (Toyota Motor Sales USA).
Passenger cars overall didn’t fare very well in April. The Fusion showed growth, but at a distinctly slower pace than it enjoyed during the first quarter of the year. The Impala, 300 and Camry– all of which had been showing sales increases for the first three months of the year– took a dive. Camry was the most surprising; April sales dipped below those of the previous two years.
Pickup Trucks
The choices here are pretty straightforward: Ford F-Series , Dodge Ram , and Toyota Tundra. GM offers its full size truck under both the Chevrolet and GMC brand names. I'm tracking the Silverado , as it’s the better-selling of the two GMT900-based pickups.
So far this year, the Ram is currently following the same sales trend (and almost same numbers) as last year. It's an interesting development for a design that’s the oldest in its class.
Ford's F-Series is also showing the same sales trend as in previous years– but at an alarmingly lower level.
The Silverado bears watching. For the second consecutive month, sales were below previous years. This despite the fact that it’s a new design; sales should be trending higher. Chevy just announced new incentives to see if they can pull sales up. If not, failure to elevate could portend some scary problems for GM.
Truck-Based SUVs
These are the traditional SUVs we all know and… uh… know them. They’re represented here by the Tahoe , Explorer , Durango and 4Runner.
The new[ish] Chevrolet Tahoe is the only SUV showing an overall sales increase over last year. However, its sales are still well below ‘06, and there was a major sales drop from March to April this year. Since the Tahoe tends to show the same drop over the last three years, there may not be a cause for alarm– except in light of the overall numbers.
This year's sales-to-date for the Ford Explorer, Dodge Durango and Toyota 4Runner are all below those for the previous years. With gas prices climbing, logic suggests sales have not yet hit rock bottom.
Small SUV/CUV's
In 2005, these models were all considered SUVs. Two years later, they’re CUVs (Crossover Utility Vehicles). Go figure. The models shown here– Equinox , Escape , Pacifica , and RAV-4 — were each manufacturer's 2006 top selling whatever-they-call-them-this-week.
All but the Pacifica show a drop from March to April. Although sales of the newly-designed Toyota RAV-4 took a sharp fall in April, they're still above the previous years’ totals.
Ford has just introduced the refreshed 2008 Escape, so sales there may grow a bit over the next few months.
Chevy's Equinox stumbles and tumbles with practically no updates since it was introduced. With newer competition from Ford and Toyota, its sales will probably continue to decline.
New Models
You never know how the market will react to a newly-introduced vehicle. Each manufacturer is trying a new model that’s somewhat of a departure from their usual offerings.
GM now offers the Lambda-platform CUVs, represented here by the GMC Acadia. These CUVs are shouldering a lot of responsibility. They must replace GM's TWAT award winning minivans, take up the slack for some of the Trailblazer-based SUVs, and provide an alternative to The General's slow-selling large SUVs.
Ford introduced the Edge amid a lot of fanfare, touting it as Ford’s [latest] “make or break” vehicle. Chrysler is also taking a chance with the Jeep Compass — the first Jeep product in a long time that isn’t “Trail Rated." We’ll keep an eye on them to see how well the market accepts each.
Total Sales
All four automakers lost sales last month. Only Chrysler ended this April in better shape than last year; GM , Ford, and Toyota all ended the month lower than a year ago. It’s a bit early to tell if April's downturn represents a broader pattern, but we’ll keep tracking it and let you know what we find.
Frank,
I like where you are taking this series — the charts help with analysis. Personally, I like YTD sales figures, due to the monthly fluctuations caused by temporary sales incentives.
Excellent. Someone asked and TTAC delivered.
The overall industry trend is very disturbing. Back in the recession of 90-91 I think that total sales dropped to 13.4MM for 91? And that was an extremely painful period. So now the economy is bigger, more people, a lot more wealth, etc. Any clue on what industry sales rate in 2007 is equivalent to the 13.4 million rate back then?
At the current level the Big 2.12344 are not viable companies no matter what their vehicle mix. If industry sales drop much more (gas, Iran, terror attack) they’re toast – like right now.
Sean, these charts do show year to year if you look at the 2005 and 2006 lines. It shows a downtrend in every US mfg for the first quarter. It also shows they all had a temporary spike in 2006 but that the decline is on again for 2007. Even if this is all “lost fleet sales” can the domestics given their supplier and union contracts go on without at least leveling off?
Do you mean like this, Sean: GM Ford Chrysler Group (Yes, there are 3 lines on the Chrysler graph. They just overlap so closely you can't see all 3.) Toyota USA
Excellent!
For several weeks, I’ve been thinking the one thing missing at TTAC were charts and graphs. They put numbers in perspective that are easier to grasp than raw data alone. (The year-to-date graphs are a nice addition, too.)
Suggestion: Think about increasing the tracking by one company, Honda, and one car: Accord. With the new Accord due in 4 months, it would add the “other” player in the field, Honda. My $0.02 (I know, more work. No rest for the weary, eh?)
Love the graphs; nice work, Frank / TTAC.
Nicely done!
The YTD charts are a nice addition.
Sid Vicious:
At the current level the Big 2.12344 are not viable companies no matter what their vehicle mix. If industry sales drop much more (gas, Iran, terror attack) they’re toast – like right now.
I think the combination of gas prices and the collapse of the housing market – which will put an end to a lot of home refinancing and cashing out of equity – will significantly depress large vehicle sales.
Sub $20k efficient cars are going to become a LOT more popular in the next 2-3 years, methinks. Maybe I’ll buy some stock in Honda…
Great article Frank.
Very nice article – looking forward to seeing the progression over time. I particularly like the overall sales figures, although being an engineer (and therefore a fan of massive amounts of data), I’d love to see overall sales for other ‘major’ car companies – the number of individual cars is just about right. The only suggestion I have would be tracking some of the higher selling sports cars – as a more truly discretionary item, it might give insight into how purchasing decisions are changing over time… Again, very nice – this is the kind of thing that I never seem to be able to find anywhere else.
Great job Frank! I’m a visual learner…..
Compelling information, Thank You.
In this age of “extreme sales management” by all manufacturers. How relevant is it really?
One wonders if its the market or the incentives that create the variations. Especially that consumers are “well trained” in the incentive games.
A captivating aspect is the “games” that are played to bolster the values of lease returns in an attempt to make them match the residuals.
Nice article, well done. I’m also quite “visual” so I liked the graphs.
I’d also add Honda, though, since Honda and Toyota are both healthy companies on the upswing.
Last year, I’d have said “add Hyundai too” but not now. I think their growth spurt has passed, as – in the past.
For all those who like to look at the raw data – these are a sample of April figures including breakout by model.
Ford
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578073&EDATE=
Toyota
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578147&EDATE=
Chrysler
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578121&EDATE=
Audi
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578006&EDATE=
Honda
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578211&EDATE=
BMW
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578255&EDATE=
Mazda
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578155&EDATE=
Nissan
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-01-2007/0004578170&EDATE=
Sorry – couldn’t find GM
Sid – I believe the # you’re talking about is the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) put out by the Dept of Commerce on a monthly basis. Last month the SAAR was 16.3 (means on a seasonally adjusted basis, 16.3mm units were sold). This # has hovered between 16-17 the last few years. IIRC, it was ~17 in 2004-2005, dropped last year to 16.5 and is projected to sink again to the low 16’s in 2007.
I like what you’re trying to do here. I wonder how much of the pass car increase relates to fleet sales. I have to believe Fusion is being heavily sold into fleet since F’s aggregate fleet sales are down less than the # of Tauruses (Tauri?) that were taken out of production… they’re pushing something else into fleet and my money’s on the Fusion.
Badger:
Until recently I worked for a large nationwide corporation – all of our fleet vehicles were Ford Fusions and Escapes. When people think fleet they tend to think rental, but corporate fleets are a large market also.
The 2005 lines show how significantly the employee pricing gimmick affected sales-and how all it did was pull ahead sales from the same manufacturer, as opposed to stealing them from Toyota or somebody else or creating them out of thin air. That is, sales for the three domestic makers went up in the summer and went down in the fall and winter by almost the same amount-so the only change was that a lot of sales were made at lower prices, hurting profits (but allowing a lot of consumers to get a lot of good deals).
carguy:
Here’s GM’s sales chart for April:
http://media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/gmnews/viewmonthlyreleasedetail.do?domain=3&docid=35919
Badger-As for Ford’s fleet sales, they simply have given those up (mainly to Chrysler and some of the minor Asian players like Kia and Mitsubishi). The Fusion is a hit at the retail level; fleet sales of it are minimal. The 500 has lots of fleet sales, but it did before the Taurus was killed, too (of course, it turns into the Taurus come model year 2008, which is admittedly goofy).
A great job. Graphs are literally the language of automotive remarketing and your presentation of the information would go over well on many levels of this business.
There is one alteration you may want to consider if the data is easily available to you. Fleet sales greatly exaggerate the performance of certain manufacturers. By removing fleet sales from the totals, the true competitiveness of the vehicles (and the manufacturer) will be more apparent. Chrysler in particular has been a stronger presence in this channel over the past year.
You may also want to consider adding the sister brands for the total. A Fusion/Milan blend will show the true market competitiveness of Ford in that segment.
If all of this is easy to do then the one other salient piece of information I would add is a Hyundai/Kia combination. Hyundai will potentially become the direct competitor to Toyota and Honda in all market segments while Kia will become positioned towards the ‘value’ oriented domestics. This has been gradually happening over the past few years and it will be interesting to see whether a Korean competitor can actually register continued growth in this industry shakeout phase.
Frank,
I like those charts, but can you show some that have the domestic car companies actually increasing sales? I’d really like to see those!
SherbornSean:
I like those charts, but can you show some that have the domestic car companies actually increasing sales? I’d really like to see those!
Sorry, but I’m not a science fiction writer. I don’t do fantasy worlds and alternate realities.
Mr. Williams;
Great information. Many media outlets quote auto sales stats in confusing manner. Simply showing the graphs is the best.
However I do have one suggestion: I am an engineer and often work with data. The best way to show the “y” (vertical) axis is start at zero. If you start at some middle number then this can exaggerate the size of changes.
Example if the Bloat-3000 SUV sales increase from 10,000 to 10,050 and if the y-axis goes from 99,90 to 10,100 then the change will visually look quite large.
To summarize my suggestion: always have the y-axis start at zero.
My opinion of the data: the explorer and the durango are way down. Most of the big trucks are not that much changed considering 3 dollar gas – which tells me gas has to go higher.
Is there any way to add another visual overlay? I suggest trying to relate changes in sales to changes in gasoline prices, if possible. It would be interesting to see how truck and full-size SUV sales especially track with gasoline at $2.50, $2.75 and now $3.00 per gallon. Just a thought.
thx_zetec: I do have one suggestion: I am an engineer and often work with data. The best way to show the “y” (vertical) axis is start at zero. If you start at some middle number then this can exaggerate the size of changes. I used the starting points I did because of the high numbers involved. If I started the y-axis at 0, the bottom 2/3 of the graph would be blank, the lines would be almost flat, and changes would be almost indiscernible because of the relatively small difference in the numbers on such a large scale.
I don’t wanna nitpick, I’ll make one more comment then let you have the final word (if you want)
“I used the starting points I did because of the high numbers involved. If I started the y-axis at 0, the bottom 2/3 of the graph would be blank, the lines would be almost flat, and changes would be almost indiscernible because of the relatively small difference in the numbers on such a large scale.”
Exactly my point – if the changes are “almost indiscernible” then the trend is not significant. The data is “in the noise”. If you started y-axis at zero most of the comparison would not show much change – *but* the explorer and durango would still show as significant.
Anyway you’re doing the work and writing the column – obviously your call.
Frank,
Nice fact based article. It is interesting to see how the companies are doing in the various segments, which are still being affected by high gas prices. The retail vs. rental fleet sales would be very interesting. Chrysler’s latest sales pick up had to include massive dumping to rental fleets of all those vehicles in inventory.
There is so many shenanigans that go on with sales data. One of the most reported/analyzed numbers is how many days a car stays on the dealer lot, but every company calculates that differently. Many of the high fleet companies include their fleet sales in these calculations. The actual retail turn period is much higher, when the fleet is taken out.
My only question; wouldn’t the Expedition and Sequoia (in lieu of the Explorer and the 4Runner) be better for comparison against the Tahoe and the Durango?
Otherwise, I think this is a great idea.
It’s fascinating how the sales incentives (rebates and employee pricing) seemed to coincide with a free fall in sales for the models represented.
For example, the Impala: at the beginning of the 2005 EIP, sales were at nearly 31K and at the end of the “promotion” sales were down 10K. After the EIP ended, sales began an upward trend. It seems they would have been better off not having any incentives.
It would be fun to have a dashboard on the homepage with real-time graphs of YTD sales figures. It would really give impact to the Death watches when you could see the trend of The Big 3 vs. Toyota.
Frank –
Really like the graphs, but suggest that the bottom of the y-axis as well as the vertical scale be the same for competitors. I agree that it can be hard to see big fluctuations if you zero the y-axis, but that this might be a visually acceptable compromise.
If you did this with, say, Impala and Camry graphs side by side (as I do in tabs in Firefox), you can’t tell without looking at the Y axis that the Camry outsells the Impala. If you set both graphcs the Y range from 15k – 45k both vehicles’ plots can be “eyeballed” quickly. I guess it doesn’t help (and not a good sign) that the Chrysler and Ford products don’t make it on that scale…
Along these lines, so to speak: I haven’t gotten a chance to read Edward Tufte’s books, but one of them, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information, is supposed to cover this subject nicely.
http://www.edwardtufte.com/
I just want to throw this out there as a “what if” scenario:
When Bernanke begins raising interest rates to stave off inflation, sales of higher end import autos (BMW, Merc, Audi, Lexus, Infinity) will begin to decline when money becomes tight. People begin buying cars not because they want them but only when they need to. This drives them to the lesser priced domestics and Japanese imports out of necessity, thus boosting sales exponentially.
Is this scenario possible, or am I just delusional? (Thanks in advance for the delusional comments.)
I too would love to see the retail only charts. The fleet market distorts the desireability index of the vehicles because even in the non-rental fleet world there is often a buy “American” rule. I know that for years many US corporations and most government buyers have had this rule.
One surprise in the graphs is that the Impala is far outselling the Fusion, but again I wonder how the retail sales of those two would compare.
Personally I think Camry is in trouble. The latest redesign is in many ways a step backwards from the model it replaced. The nose is pug ugle, the interior fit and finish are bested by some modern Fords and the driving dynamics remain lame. I test drove a Camry recently and could see and smell the ugly work of cost cutting everywhere. Even the shade of blue-green on the radio and A/C control fascias didn’t match by a lot. These are the kinds of details Toyota never used to get wrong. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Camry continue to slide. The Fusion and Accord are both superior family sedans to the Camry now IMO.
Be sure not to take these stats out of context! This only tracks the ability of the companies to push products. It does nothing to reflect the health of the underlying company. Nor does it reflect what factors trigger the purchase decisions of the customers.
If a company is selling cars at a loss, then an increase is sales volume is not a good thing. A better reflection of the financial reality is to graph the total profit made from sales each month.
A rise in sales volume can be caused by in-demand products, effective marketing, or lowered price. If the cause of the sales spikes is low price, then it might cause a aggregate reduction in profit.
bfg9k:
I almost doubt there will be a huge rise in sub $20k vehicle purchases. I think leasing may become more popular if anything. People will still have the desire for the latest & flashy. You may see families holding onto one beater longer for the daily commute and grocery runs, and a leased Thingamabob 2000 in the driveway.
US retail sales virtually collapsed last month.
Wal-Mart posted their worst monthly sales figures since 1980, when they started keeping records.
Same store sales fell nearly 4% from this time last year. Target same-store sales are down over 6% from last year. All the major retailers are hemorrhaging.
The UBS International Council of Shopping Centers, which tallies the results of more than 50 of the leading retailers in the U, said combined sales in April had declined by 2.3% across the board, the biggest drop since the index was first started in 1970. “The slowdown is at hand,” said chief economist at the council Michael Niemira.
What’s the matter?
America’s Re-Fi ATM is closed, that’s what’s the matter. Recession looms.
Costco did experience a rise, if I recall correctly (which suggests that strapped consumers are becoming more cost conscious). But your point still stands.
Frank, thanks for this fine article.
Seems like everyone has an idea for revised or new charts. Personally, I’d be interested in tracking unit sales increases/decreases by percentages (so all have the same yardstick). And market share percentage trends. And gross profit by brand and model (though the manufacturers probably would never release that data). But let’s not expect Frank to crunch numbers 24 hours a day!
The crucial facts, I think, are that the 2.5’s market share is eroding, and that gross profit per vehicle is trending downward. Industry-wide sales have been robust in recent years; a recession could be fatal for a cyclical business with high fixed costs (e.g., retiree benefits) and low or negative profit margins.
And to starlightmica and all dataphiles out there: if you ever have a chance to attend an Edward Tufte lecture, don’t miss it. He’s opinionated (he dislikes pie charts, and detests PowerPoint shows) but he’s the Leonardo daVinci of his field. His books are mind-opening works of art.
economic blindness-
can anyone honestly say, that our current US economy, isnt affected buy americans buying foriegn products? arent we putting ourselves out of jobs, arent we forcing our american companies to close down or move out? arent we making/creating our own unemployment? we should just get it over with, and hand ALL foriegn countries our not so precious money- this country is turning into a ‘consumer only’ country, hungry for non-american products- anything is better then amercian made? –sorry for the vent and nieviness– we are our own worst enemy