OK, so, I called up the Alliance of Automotive Manufacturers to chase-up a few loose ends regarding the new Energy Bill headed for the President's John Hancock. Wayde Newton sent over a pdf. I'm bushed (so to speak), so if TTAC's best and brightest can give the Energy Bill the once-over and report their major and minor findings below, I'd consider it an important demonstration of the power of citizen journalism and a bloody great weight off my shoulders. Anyway and meanwhile, Wayde gave me some important insights. It seems the actual calculations that will determine what any given manufacturer's car or truck must achieve mpg-wise is STILL up in the air, headed over to The National Highway Traffic Administration (NHTSA) for their boffins to unravel (ravel?). Truth to tell, I was wrong about two key points. First, the bumper sticker– 35mpg by 2020– refers to the entire U.S. auto industry's annual output of both cars and trucks combined. No one manufacturer has to hit that target. They all have to do it together. Second, the new regs will NOT be footprint based. They'll be based on a range of potential "attributes" as determined by NHTSA, that could include engine size, torque, payload, four wheel-drive, towing ability, etc. In other words, the regs will vary by both manufacturer AND vehicle type. And that means that the Energy Bill fuel economy provisions are a nightmare for NHTSA's hard-working bureaucrats and a bit of a con for the average citizen.
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I smell under-the-table deals…
So does that mean that Mercedes, BMW, and others that don’t really care about CAFE now can continue on their merry way not caring about CAFE? Since the auto industry collectively has to hit the target, but individuals do not, what forces ANY automaker to live up to the new standard? And, since I’m asking questions, how could a non-conforming company be held accountable, since the regulations hold the industry accountable, not individuals?
Not that it matters, as it’s all political posturing (and a dumb regulation anyway).
Just let Toyota carry the burden. After all, they have the Prius, and that’s one helluva head start!
Given the volume of this thing, this will have to be something of a group project.
A quick search found the word “mileage” on page 56.
So, like, the next guy can pick up from there.
Something to read before I go to bed, for the next year, 1000 pages, man oh man.
I had a fairly lengthy conversation with someone from the Union of Concerned Scientists on just this subject today. It’s as if they desgned the standards to be as complicated as possible. But the reason they can, in theory, achieve the 35mpg fleet average is that car mfgs have to provide NHTSA, I think it is, with their product plans, and NHTSA then is to design the fuel economy curves–separate curves for cars and for trucks–so that all the cars projected to be sold will now meet the average. I didn’t ask how the sanctions work, but this sounds like trying to steer an ocean liner with a tiller off of a sailboat. It also sounds like it’s designed to fail, which is probably why John Dingell and the automakers gave it their blessing.
I’m sorry, Farago. You must have misread something. There is no way that ANY government, even as one as chronically useless as ours, would hold a whole INDUSTRY to a standard and not individual companies. They HAVE to realize that a few companies getting greener can’t make up for the same amount that don’t. Sure, BMW and Mercedes are bringing diesels over and others are making hybrids…but Ferrari? Lamborghini? Is it averaged over the number of models? The number of cars sold? Man.
CarShark :
I am deeply embarrassed that I didn’t know the new CAFE “35 by 2020” was a combined industry-wide standard. I was rendered literally speechless when Wayde dropped the bombshell.
And then all I could say was “That’s insane.”
I keep hoping someone will post here that I’ve been duped. Fooled. Punk’d. That it’s a lie made up by The Alliance in revenge for the GM Deathwatch or something.
Say it ain’t so, Joe.
Congress tossed one son of a gun of a hot potato at the NHTSA. National Highway Traffic Safety Agency! How those poor saps got the fuel economy regulation monkey on their back must be some story. It sure seems more like the EPA’s job.
Congress just passed another massive lobbyist, lawyer and consulting engineer employment bill because all those groups are going to be crawling all over the NHTSA as it tries to do the nearly impossible job handed to it by Congress.
This is not likely to end well.
Oh well. Maybe $200/bbl wil get us to 35 mpg, allowing our leaders politicians to take full credit for their hard work and… wait for it…service. What a bunch of wimps.
So does this Energy Bill actually do anything?
Engineer: It wastes paper.
1055 pages!!! All the gasoline that’s gonna be “saved” by this fiasco will be offset by all the trees killed to print up a copy for each and every senator and representative — none of whom I’ll bet will even read more than the page or two that covers their favorite pork amendment.
It’s a delay tactic; the next President and Congress will have to work out the gory details — oh, and, Enjoy the Holidays, Legislators!
Robert: Thanks, this is a service and an opportunity for the assembled to “give back”
Just a quick perusal of the (11 page) Table of Contents yields a few interesting nuggets:
Looks like the farm lobby got their licks in….lots of incentives for biofuel and ethanol R&D and production.
Title VI discloses R&D incentives for the solar, geothermal, marine hydrokinetic (wave power?) and energy storage (batteries and capacitors) industries. Who did the wind power and nuclear industries piss off?
Title IX deserves a read….looks like we will be “assisting” developing countries in implementing “clean and efficient energy technology”. What’s up with that?
Looks like there are grants avaiable for “advanced technology locomotives” That sounds like a fun project, even as a kid i liked playing with trains…
Okay, so the government will set different MPG targets for trucks and cars.
The part that I find iffy is that the government will have to estimate in advance how many trucks and cars will be sold, to be able to get to an overall 35 MPG average.
That’s difficult. And then they will have to scramble with adjustments to the regulations when they get it wrong.
This bill has a mechanism for trading of MPG credits.
Say GM can only reach 30 MPG and Toyota can reach 40 MPG, then Toyota can sell GM credits so that the average reaches 35 MPG for both.
This could bring some nice profits to the best manufacturers.
I think Car Shark is right. But so is Farago. IT isn’t industry wide it clearly says by manufacturer for the fleet economy. What you would gather though by the use of the credit sharing/buying is that the entire industry would achieve the needed average. That’s my guess. I don’t see where it says industry wide though. Have a section or page #?
why the NHTSA is coming up with mileage rules when the EPA is finally doing a good job with it is way way beyond me.