Financial Times reports that Johnson Controls and Saft have joined forces to build a factory to produce lithium-ion batteries for automotive applications. The factory in Nersac, France will supply batteries to GM, Chrysler and Mecedes, amongst others. Initially, the new venture will be turning out about 5k battery packs per year, increasing production from then on as demand increases. The partnership also plans to produce batteries in Asia and other locations. Meanwhile, Toyota is making preparations with Panasonic to produce Li-Ion batteries for the Prius, while GM works with Continental and LG Chemical to develop batteries for the Volt, and Nissan partners with NEC for their electric car project in Israel. Anyone want to place a bet on how long it'll be before we're fretting over the lithium supply like we do crude oil?
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There’s someone out there claiming there’s a peak lithium problem – anyone in the know vetted this paper?
linky: http://www.evworld.com/library/lithium_shortage.pdf
@starlightmica
Oh, it’s damn if you do, damn if you don’t as far as minor metals prices are concerned. Huge shortages coming. The short term problem is not lithium, though, but cobalt.
This article is quite enlightening (and dismissive of motor executives) ) — an enjoyable and worrying read:
http://www.glgroup.com/News/The-Cost-of-Minor-Metals–The-Real-Driver-Of-Green-Car-Selling-Prices-and-KIller-Of-Profits-20744.html
An extract:
This is a huge problem about to be faced by Toyota, because it did not take into account,as neither did GM or anyone else, of the possibility of a commodity supercycle or resource nationalism and environmental activism all combining to drive the prices of the component metals of the battery sky-high while restricting the supplies of some of the key metals to only those favored by, or able to negotiate successfully with, Chinese and Congolese suppliers.
The NiMH battery pack for the Prius, which was originally made in troy, Michigan, cost less than $1000.00 per hand made unit in 1999. Today the same battery pack made in Japan costs more than $8,000.00. This increase is due entirely to the increased cost of nickel, the rare earth metals, and cobalt, mainly during the five years between 2003 and 2008.
The rare earths are so-called minor metals; they are not exchange traded, and due to activist environmentalism they are no longer produced in the USA, which in 1994 supplied 34% of the world’s needs for rare earth metals from just one mine in southern California’s Inyo County. Cobalt comes mainly from the DRC, the Democratic republic of the Congo; it is not today mined in the US. Nickel comes from Russia, Canada, Cuba, Polynesia, and Australia. One nickel mine, the first one opened in the US since World War II, has just begun operation in Michigan after fierce opposition by environmentalists. Cobalt is also considered a minor metal.
snip
If it turns out that the fire safety problem of lithium cobalt systems can be solved then, since there is no shortage of lithium, the problem will be where do you get the additional 35,000 tons of cobalt required annually from thereafter to meet Toyota’s prediction of 2 million hybrids per year by 2012?
If lithium cobalt is not the answer and it is another system how long will it take for that new system’s long term reliability, safety, cost, and recycling all to be approved and certified? Also, what metals will be needed and where will they come from, never mind how much they may cost by then?
No, no, lithium supplies are infinite, benign, and require absolutely no petroleum to extract, transport, or process.
Well I’m still holding out for the dilithium crystals.
Tiberium people. Tiberium is the answer.
It would be far too sweet to see the environmentalist dream, the electric car, frustrated by the environmentalist own actions in closing mines.
Does it seem that the battery technology consortiums are the dotcoms of 2008? So many of them coming out of nowhere offering the car companies the latest in battery technology and the means to mass produce whatever package they are looking for. Someone’s gonna get burnt. And it’s gonna be the consumer (us folk) because whatever all those different companies come up with, sure as shootin there will be no standards and you won’t be able to mix and match to suit your driving style. Beta versus VHS all over again; blu-ray vs hd-dvd, for those not old enough to remember.
Frank,
Great question about lithium resources. We haven’t even started yet and we’re already worrying about the end of it.
There is a lot of lithium in the world that can be produced cheaply. Good for millions or even a billion cars. And it’s not coming from OPEC.
Is there going to be a lithium cartel? I don’t think so, because most lithium producing countries are well-behaved members of the world trade organization. That doesn’t necessarily mean lithium will be cheap, though.
What’s the biggest cost of lithium batteries? It’s not the raw material; it’s the refining and manufacturing.
I think we’ll be okay with lithium till 2030. After that there may be a new generation of batteries. How about carbon nanotubes?