The United States will have the capacity to produce 13 billion gallons of ethanol by the end of 2008. The United Sates will have the capacity to process 12 billions of ethanol by the end of 2008. Oops! This analysis comes to us from Wally Tyner. The agricultural economist for Purdue University predicts that this disparity will force some ethanol plants to reduce or halt production, and drive down the price of ethanol. Controversially, Tyner also suggests that U.S. ethanol over-production could lead to exports. And this is just E10 folks. During a phone interview [podcast below], the prof reveals that America's entire consumption of E85 could be satisfied by the output of ONE ethanol plant. How many do we have now? 100. Tyner agreed that the American ethanol industry couldn't survive without state and federal subsidies. But I suppose you kinda knew that already.
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Good to hear a fellow Boilermaker on TTAC.
An new ethanol plant is almost completed in Alexandria, IN, north of where I live. Part of the sell was all the jobs it would provide. If E85 goes belly-up, those promises won’t come true for an area already hit hard by GM and Delphi leaving.
I was thinking I maight put my Chem Eng degree to work and build me my own little ethanol plant out in the backyard. Not for fuel though, medicinal purposes only.
Will excessive ethanol supplies drive down E85 prices further? In many areas it’s more than 25% below the price of regular unleaded, meaning in spite of the ~25% fuel economy penalty, it’s cheaper to run E85.
I don’t see the logic here. How does one plant produce 12 billion gallons? How does one plant supply 1500 E85 stations, and the market for E10?
Very good interview!
Are there any links to some of the research that says that theres a 20% gain in energey when producing ethanol?
“I was thinking I maight put my Chem Eng degree to work and build me my own little ethanol plant out in the backyard. Not for fuel though, medicinal purposes only.”
The Terrorists-on-the-Potomac will toss you into a rape-cage for 10 years if you put the ethanol in your mouth…If you put it in your car’s gas tank, they will steal a bunch of my money and hand it to you.
Luther,
Congratulations! That one’s a winner.
Alex Rodriguez:
How does one plant supply 1500 E85 stations, and the market for E10?
It doesn’t. One plant supplies enough ethanol to cover our entire E85 consumption, while all the other plants work to supply the E10 market.
Note that while 1500 stations may be in the business of selling E85, my guess is that precious few of them sell only that fuel, or even a lot of it. Most of those 1500 E85 stations are normal gas stations with a single hooch-pump out back.
Here is an interesting discussion on ethanol fuel energy with numerous additional links
balancehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_energy_balance
So the price of E85 and E10 will plummet while the prices of food and beer (!!) will skyrocket.
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10337782
So the price of E85 and E10 will plummet while the prices of food and beer (!!) will skyrocket.
That’s all you get from our lousy leaders politicians.
Perhaps I expect too much from these guys, but one would think somebody in Congress would have figured out that converting FOOD into FUEL would leave us hungry AND the butt of jokes at OPEC meetings.
It’s not rocket science: we produce a lot less food than fuel. So diverting a bunch of food to fuel was always going to impact food prices long before it makes a dent in fuel prices. And that’s assuming you buy the nonsensical energy balances that the pro-ethanol lobby puts out.
Ah well, I guess it is time to recycle that well-worn excuse: (Look seriously at camera and frown for added effect) Who coulda known?
Great interview, RF. While Tyner is obviously unaccustomed to having to answer questions from the media, you still managed to get quite a bit of eye-opening information out of him. I’m not sure anybody realized that the vast majority of ethanol is being used for emissions-reduction duty given MTBE’s fall from grace, especially since ALL of the attention is now on E85.
So here in the south what do they use inplace of the ethanol in the E-10 blend when the temperature is too high? They go back to MTBE or are they using something else.
I hate that E-10 crap, it evaporates out of the tank in my bike if I don’t ride it for more than 4 days. It make the carb more finiky about the air temp too.
Redbarchetta: …what do they use in place of the ethanol in the E-10 blend…
From what little I’ve read on the subject…
The feds require oil refiners to boost the oxygen content of “summer-blend” gasoline to make it burn more completely, which is why they were adding MTBE.
They stopped using MTBE a couple of years ago when it was found seeping into ground water (possibly creating a cause of cancer).
When they don’t add ethanol (E10), refiners use an (expensive) additive called “alkylate,” which is a byproduct of refining.
That’s my (limited) understanding of it, anyway.
Despite the hefty subsidies, E85 is VERY expensive to use.
In my area, real gas is $3/gallon, while E85 is $2.5– 16% less than 100% gas. However,flex-fuel cars get only 66% of the mileage with E85 that they get with pure gas.
High taxes to cover interest on the Chinese-held government bonds financing ethanol plants PLUS 16% higher vehicle fuel expense PLUS high food costs. Are the powers-that-be stupid, corrupt, or a combination of the two?
As to the comments made about poor performance of carbureted equipment on E10, I agree wholeheartedly.
My lawnmower barely runs on the stuff and I barely get 1/2 of my yard done on a tankful of the stuff, while pure gas gets the job done down to a small “Mohawk” that I leave in front of the storage shed before going in for a drink while waiting for the mower to cool prior to refilling.
Back in the early ’90s, my oldest kids shared a big boat of a ’78 LTD, and then a carbureted Omni.
Whenever one of them complained about hard starting in hot weather my first question was, “You didn’t try to save a nickel using that ‘super’ unleaded again, did you?” And, of couse, the answer was an embarassed nod.
In my area, real gas is $3/gallon, while E85 is $2.5– 16% less than 100% gas. However,flex-fuel cars get only 66% of the mileage with E85 that they get with pure gas.
Somehow that math is way too complicated for the MSM (wonder why the paper isn’t selling?), like the time the NYT reported on traveling in the Midwest and reported gas prices and the cheaper E85 prices. They even quoted a clueless E85 buyer (don’t you hate those interviews with clueless bystanders?) who said that as long as its 30 to 40 cents cheaper, he thinks he’s saving money. Wrong! Think again.
BTW, I think E100 has 66% as much energy as gasoline. E85 is all the way up to 75%, thanks to that 15% good stuff.