In February, lovers old and new turn their attention to matters of the heart. No 'bout a doubt it: automakers weren't feeling the love. Overall U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 6.3 percent in February and 5.3 percent for the year. With precious few exceptions, sales were down across the board. And this time, the usually impervious foreign nameplates and transplants felt the pain along with their Detroit counterparts (although not quite as badly). Let's take a closer look at the love's labor lost.
Pickup Trucks
As you'd expect, as gas topped $3 a gallon, pickup truck sales tanked. Chevy's Silverado plummeted 24.9 percent compared to last February, down 17.4 percent year-to-date. Ford's F-Series didn't suffer quite as badly, losing just 4.9 percent from last February and 6.5 percent on the year. The Dodge Ram finished the month 20.9 percent below February ‘07, dropping 19.7 percent for the year so far. Toyota's Tundra showed a 48.9 percent gain on last February. The Texas-built pickup gained 65.6 percent on the year. However, ToMoCo was introducing the new model this time last year; sales were low for the first few months.
Passenger Cars
Chevrolet must still be having production problems with their "everyone wants one" Malibu. The new 'Bu only managed to increase sales 6.5 percent over the old model's February sales (a good January pushed sales up 29.1 percent year to date). Ford's Fusion recovered from a slow start in January, finishing February 12.1 percent higher than last year, with year-to-date sales up 1.2 percent. Chrysler's 300 continues its nosedive, down 11.6 percent in February and 10.8 percent for the year. The Toyota Camry was one of the few cars showing sales growth. The perennial sales champ finished the month up 8.6 percent, 4.6 percent ahead of last year. The newly-renlarged Honda Accord isn't doing so well. Sales are down nine percent for the month and eight percent for the year.
Truck-Based SUVs
Truck-based SUVs… ouch. The Chevy Tahoe continues selling at sub-2007 levels, dropping 26.4 percent in February and 20.4 percent year-to-date. Sales of FoMoCo's Explorer showed roughly the same performance, declining 27.1 percent from the month last year and 23.7 percent so far this year. The Dodge Boys might want to put a bullet in the Durango's head before it embarrasses them any more; model sales sank by 39.5 percent for the month and 35.8 percent drop for the year. The recently reviewed Toyota Sequoia sales increased 13.2 percent for February and 14.3 percent for the year. But like the Tundra, the numbers compare the new model to the old– and sales volumes are so low that we're only talking about a difference of 300 trucks in February.
CUVs
Although overall crossover sales were down from January, GMC's Acadia was still up 38.5 percent for the month and 122.1 percent for the year. The Edge was Ford's bright spot, racking up a 45.9 percent increase over last February and increasing sales for the year by 66.1 percent. The restyled Toyota Highlander jumped 12.2 percent for the month and 16 percent for the year. The old-style Honda Pilot did even better, growing 24.3 percent compared to last February and 7.7 percent compared to last year.
Prius
Even though gas prices went up in February, Prius sales went down 10.9 percent. They're still up 8.5 percent overall above last year so far, but sales were so robust in the first half of 2007 they may continue at sub-'07 levels for the next few months. At least until gas starts climbing to the $4/gallon mark.
Total Sales
GM's turnaround must have turned around. After blowing their horn over a black January, GM turned in a Valentine-red February. They were down 12.9 percent from February of last year. So far this year, the General's down six percent from last year. Ford didn't do quite as badly, turning in a 6.7 percent drop for the month and a 5.5 percent decrease for the year . Chrysler performed about as expected sliding 14 percent in February and 13.1 percent year to date. Even normally bullet-proof Toyota suffered in February, down 2.8 percent for the month, trailing last year by 2.4 percent. Thanks to CR-V and Civic sales, Honda managed to show growth in February, up 4.9 percent in 2008. HoMoCo finished 1.5 percent ahead year to date.
The Future
Even as new versions of the F-Series and Ram warm up in the bullpen, it doesn't look like anything will pull the truck market out of its tailspin. The CUV market will continue to grow, as Honda brings on its new Pilot and Chevy steals market share from the other Lambdas with the Traverse. In the passenger car market, attention's shifting to small cars– where Ford and Chrysler are woefully lacking and GM offers the the Korean Aveo. Add in GM's and Chrysler's supplier problems and Ford's financial difficulties and the future looks pretty bleak they're pulling the shades. Can any of them tame the shrew haunting the U.S. new car market? Watch this space.
Part of the problem domestic dealers are having is public perception and expectations. Even though Ford has cut production drastically, and we have far less inventory on the lots than before – we get no allocation to order and dealers are reluctant to swap – yet customers still expect to get the exact color and options they want for invoice price. They basically see no value in the product, just $ cost.
I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why the new Accord is down.
Maybe people see the CR-V next door for the same money?
Could it be b/c it’s just too big for the proverbial family with 1.5 kids?
I know this is NA after all, but I can only hope that people will buy the car they need 99% of the time and not continue to buy huge trucks b/c they just might have to make a Home Depot run once/yr…
No good news here. Raising gas prices and a tanking stock market hurt February. Now that stocks seem to be improving, I suspect March may look a little better.
Can’t get too much worse. Can it?
SherbornSean :
I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why the new Accord is down.
Because is ugly on the outside, too busy on the inside, too big, and drives like a boat. Honda ruined a perfectly good car (previous model) with this new Accord model.
If they are smart like they say they are I expect Honda to come up with a new Accord re-design within maxium two years. Otherwise they loose their market share on that segment to ford focus and the like. It’s a shame they let that happen.
p.s. I own a CR-V. Good car overall but the quality is not nearly where it should be. I see honda going down faster than toyota unless they do something about it.
SherbornSean: As the satisfied owner of a 2003 Accord EX sedan (four cylinder), I can tell you that I am not happy with the increase in size and price of the new model. The car didn’t need to get any bigger or more expensive. Especially when we are faced with increases in both gasoline and food prices.
I’m also not happy that, in order to get satellite radio, I apparently have to buy the leather interior, which I don’t want.
The styling isn’t the greatest, either. The bulging headlight covers aren’t very attractive.
Bottom line – Honda fumbled this one. And I say this as a Honda loyalist who has owned several Civics, a Prelude and now an Accord.
The ongoing infatuation with generating numbers that are better than the previous month, and the previous year, accompanied by financial programs/incentives that often defy gravity and common sense is hopefully coming to a rational end.
Its reaching the point where one needs one spreadsheet to keep track of the other spreadsheet.
Gas is enexorably headed for $4.00 a gallon and anything that uses too much gas to usually carry one person will experience a slowdown in sales.
All these folks need a pick up with an extended cab, and a 6 foot box to haul what? Can’t even fit a sheet of plywood or drywall in the box with the tailgate up.
Raising gas prices and a tanking stock market hurt February. Now that stocks seem to be improving, I suspect March may look a little better.
Can’t get too much worse. Can it?
I think it’ll get much worse. Too many of the sales in recent years were pulled forward due to the big incentives, lease offers, and HELOCs. Everyone who wanted or needed a new car has one. Sales are just falling back to normal levels in my opinion.
Some of the brands which boomed during the good times are in for a world of hurt the next few years.
Any word on how CR-V and RAV4 sales are doing (either individually or one vs the other)?
I’m just wondering how long the larger CUV sales will continue before they start feeling the sting from rising fuel prices…some of them get practically the same mileage as the larger SUV’s that seat 7.
FYI, some interesting facts:
Hyundai sales tanked for the second month in a row. YTD Hyundai sales are down roughly 15%.
Yaris sales were up big in February.
The Pilot saw an increase thanks to an incentives push.
Average Honda incentives for February were higher than average Toyota incentives.
Any word on how CR-V and RAV4 sales are doing (either individually or one vs the other)?
CR-V: 31710
Escape: 25383
RAV-4: 21274
…throw in the Mariner sales and the Escape platform is doing very well indeed. Combined with Edge / MKX—-Ford has at least one brightspot—CUV’s. Well–make that two—Focus with Sync.
SherbornSean :
March 11th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why the new Accord is down.
Maybe people see the CR-V next door for the same money?
With all due respect with those that are critical of the Accord’s styling, in my area, lower Accord sales are directly attributable to dealers refusing to deal on the car and asking lease rates as high as $430 a month for 36 months on EX-L models despite generally high residuals on the car.
To compare, top line Camrys are leasing in the $360 range for the same 36 months and Pontiac G6s, despite carrying stickers $1000 HIGHER than the EX-L Accord (GXP versions), they’re leasing for $330 to $345 a month.
Another comparison:
A new Acura TL leases for about $380 a month for the same 36 months.
Here in Oshawa we thought the Malibu would eat
Impala sales Sat.O.T scheduled till late April
go figure.
I don’t understand why the Acadia is doing well. It gets just as bad mileage as its truck-based GM brethren and is smaller. Plus, we all know average Americans don’t care what a vehicle drives like, so it’s carlike handling can’t be the reason for sales. Maybe it is just prettier?
coupdetat :
“I don’t understand why the Acadia is doing well. It gets just as bad mileage as its truck-based GM brethren and is smaller.”
Actually, the new pretty darn realistic EPA combined number for the Acadia is 19 mpg, vs 16 for a Yukon. Doesn’t sound like much, but that’s about a 20% improvement, which on guzzlers like these works out to a difference of about $500/year. At current gas prices in most of these USA. Throw another $100 to $150/year on the barbie when gas hits $4. Which, by the way, is pretty much already happening here in the SF Bay Area.
So, a better looking better driving vehicle that saves you $50 plus a month on fuel. Not that tough of a call.
I own a 2007 CR-V and no complaints. Wonderful vehicle. The last year I’ve seen dozens of new ones on the road.
“I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why the new Accord is down.”
Did you ever really look at it? Not pretty.
It will get much worse in terms of profitable sales for most car companies. Ford chevy and dodge have made most of their money on luxury light trucks and truck framed suv’s. When you can list a truck at $40,000 a $10,000 profit is easily made. However, at say $18,000.00 for an average small car you won’t make even $5,000 profit. At say $12,000 for an econobox there is no profit at all at least for the domestic builders. Every sale that goes “small” is a loss for these big vehicle builders. Where will the profts come from to retool and build even more small (green) cars? It is this hard fact that must drive the Detroit boys crazy at night, because they can’t control the cost of fuel.
It looks like the 1950’s all over again except the role of Chevrolet is being played by Toyota, the role of Ford is being played by Honda and GM, Ford and Chrysler have become the 1950’s independents (Studebaker, Packard, Nash and Hudson).
Thanks FW. By The Numbers keeps getting clearer and more concise with every new edition.
Although I would think that Honda would prefer to be selling more Accords, their prospects aren’t all that bleak. The Accord still outsells every rival in its class except for the Camry, and at the current rate will sell about 300,000 units by the end of the year.
At the current sales rate, the Accord will outsell the Malibu by a factor of 2:1, and will outsell the Aura by a factor of 5:1. It still maintains its lead over the Altima, although both are slipping a bit.
Perhaps Mr. Williams can address this, but I see that for March that the Camry is currently being sold with $1,000 customer incentives, while Honda isn’t offering one. I’m going to guess that Toyota is using these rebates to keep its customers away from Honda, and that the Accord’s size gain is pushing some consumers toward the Camry. With pricey gas and recession on the way, large mid-market cars are falling out of favor — for example, Avalon sales are down 1/3rd from last year.
NoSubstitute:
Edmunds.com’s new comparo reports the Acadia averaging 15.4mpg and the Toyota Sequoia 4.7L at 15.2mpg. I’m not sure about what other drivers are getting but it seems that, at 5000lbs, the Acadia is fighting a losing battle against physics.
One of the chief advantages of CUV’s is that they can be much lighter than body-on-frame SUV’s… so I’m not sure what GM was thinking.
It’s looking like Hyundai is becoming the darling of rental car lots. I tend to see window bar codes on a lot of Sonatas and Azeras. Since I don’t see any information if they lump fleet sales with dealer sales, imagine the plunge without the dumping into fleets. Hyundai also has a problem with resale value so this doesn’t help matters at all.
coupdetat – no idea on what GM and Ford were thinking with 5,000+lb crossovers either. I can imagine a lot of pissed off owners any month now when the reality of better mileage never happens.
According to GMC.com, the curb weight of the Acadia with AWD is 4936. The Yukon, however, tips the scales at 5527. So the Acadia is a good deal lighter.
car shark, you are right they have taken the frame out and the acadia is lighter. But the economics are a little more complicated. First, if gas only goes to say $3.50 a driver might say that 3-4mpg better on the acadia is a good trade off. However, if gas goes to and stays at $4.00 or more most people who really never needed a truck or large cross over but bought them because they are trendy will look for a station wagon type vehicle. This will be anything from an old fashioned type like a VW passat with real mpg about 25 to a mini van with mpg about 22. Not to mention that newer stuff is on the way that is truly lighter. I believe that 3500 pounds will be the new target weight for haulers of the future. Remember chrysler’s original minivan was a four banger with a lot smaller dimensions then now. Further mazda a has similar vehicles caled an M5 which is a small minivan with a four popper. When people are really scared about fuel, they will not take a 20% improvement ala tahoe to acadia they will want more and this is why the GM and Ford idea of crossovers won’t work.
Pch101: Perhaps Mr. Williams can address this, but I see that for March that the Camry is currently being sold with $1,000 customer incentives, while Honda isn’t offering one. I’m going to guess that Toyota is using these rebates to keep its customers away from Honda, and that the Accord’s size gain is pushing some consumers toward the Camry.
Thanks for the information on Camry incentives. I hadn’t realized that Toyota was being that aggressive.
As for the Accord’s size gain – we are looking at either the Civic, or maybe even the updated 2009 Ford Fusion. We just don’t care for the Camry.
Up where I live (a northern US town known for high prices due to plenty of tourists year round) gas prices went from $3.08 to $3.29 to $3.46 in a matter of 4 or 5 days. So we’re “only” running about 25 cents more per gallon than the national average, and “only” about 15 cents more per gallon than any stations in a 50 mile radius around us. Lucky us. I know that people living on the west coast and northeast coast pay more (but then, you folks make a shovel load more money than we do here in “flyover country” so stop your whining).
It’s now taking a $50 and a $5 bill to fill up a mid-sized car here. You can’t leave your midsized to run nearly out unless you want to put your credit card in the pump twice – $50 is it. So SUV and pickup truck drivers can choose to pay multiple times at the pump or simply fill up every time the gas gauge reads 3/4 tank. A hassle. The credit card companies need to get a freaking clue?!
The other day, I “peeked” at oil prices online as I sat down at work and it was $104 per barrel, and by lunch, it was $107. Now, it’s $110, a mere 3 days later.
In other news, Hyundai says they will finally get 30,000 more compact 4 cylinder cars out of the parent company for the US. It still won’t be enough. And the Montgomery plant has a new four cylinder engine factory ready to start production by autumn. I am thinking that before this is over, there will be four cylinder Santa Fe’s back on sale, not just four cylinder Sonata’s on sale.
Remember chrysler’s original minivan was a four banger with a lot smaller dimensions then now. Further mazda a has similar vehicles caled an M5 which is a small minivan with a four popper.
Speaking of which, Mazda5 sales are up 29% for the month and year to date. Of course, the numbers are tiny in the grand scheme of things, but the 5 is like the opposite of the canary in the coal mine. It was not engineered for traditional American tastes and sales have reflected that. And yet sales are picking up. It’s a potential trend to keep an eye on.
In the Denver area I’m seeing a fairly good number of new Accords, more than the new Malibu. All things considered I don’t really see that many Ford Fusion/Mercury Milan/Lincoln Zephyr/MKZs, even though they’ve been around for like 3 years. Maybe it’s regional and they haven’t caught on around here. Or maybe they just blend into the background and I don’t notice them.
nosubstitute, coupdetat, carshark, Perhaps the CUV vs Yukaburbahoe decision is a combination of reality check, likely better fuel economy plus lower purchase price? The Acadia stickers for $5K less. If the Acadia seats enough and you don’t ever actually trailer so much as to require the bigger vehicle, why pay more?
“The newly-renlarged Honda Accord isn’t doing so well. Sales are down nine percent for the month and eight percent for the year.”
Yep, Honda blew it. The new Accord has worse fuel efficiency than the old one. The prior Accord is a very comfortable car for four full sized adults to travel in, making it bigger was dumb, and the new styling is just weird.
Honda fell into the Super Size Me trap which has engulfed so much of the auto industry.
That and the competition for Accord is improving. Camry, Altima, Fusion, Malibu and Aura are all worthwhile competitors now.
As far as trucks, we are on trend for trucks to return to the 20-25% of the US light vehicle market they held for over 50 years. The marketing driven craze for big SUVs and pickup trucks has run it’s course just like every fad does. As fuel prices keep climbing the sales of those big dogs is going to fall even more. In fact, sales of trucks could end up under the long term average for quite some time as the used vehicle market is flooded with trade-ins of lightly used trucks. Farmers and contractors rejoice.
Now, where is the modern equivalent of a 1972 Toyota Hilux? You know, a rugged little truck you can buy for the price of a stripped Corolla, take care of work with and get 30 mpg doing it with the 4 cylinder engine and 5 speed manual transmission?
GM clearly has a big problem: the honeymoon with the GMT-900 platform is over. There is no other big profit maker for them.
Toyota also has a big problem: importing 1M vehicles is no longer fun with a crashing dollar. They need to raise prices on imported small vehicles and should probably start manufacturing the Prius in the US.