OK. So it turns out computing monthly auto sales is somewhat akin to doing taxes– it depends on who's doing the figuring. Using Automotive News' [sub] numbers (which we also use for the "By the Numbers" analysis), and ignoring the accounting slight-of-hand known as "sales days," Chrysler's March sales sank by 19.4 percent compared to last March, to 166,386 vehicles. GM's sales dipped by 18.7 percent, to 280,713. And Ford moved downwards by 14.1 percent, to 226,448 units. As you'd expect in these gas-conscious times, light truck sales (or lack thereof) account for the lion's share of the losses (down 15.5 percent in GM's case). As these vehicles also account for the majority of the domestics' profits (or lack thereof), that's gonna leave a BIG mark on their balance sheets. And don't get to thinking that "at least they're maintaining their market share." Although Toyota took a 10.3 percent hit in March, Honda and Nissan each dropped only 3.2 and 3.8 percent respectively. In a generally lower market (down 12 percent), they're eating someone's lunch.
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From the figures Automotive News publishes every manufacturer took a dive in March, and most of them are behind YTD too.
A challenging market for all the manufacturers,even after all the dicing and splicing its a challenging market/upstream swim with no immediate upside in sight.
Robert, Autoblog’s figures seem better than what other sources are reporting.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080401/BIZ/804010447/1148/AUTO01
There were two(7%) fewer sales days this March compared to last year, so lower unit sales for the month can still equate to a higher DSR.
Time for another GM death watch article in 3…2…1…
Bill Wade :
Robert, Autoblog’s figures seem better than what other sources are reporting.
From DetN: “There were 26 sales days last month compared to 28 in the same month a year ago. The Detroit News reports unadjusted sales figures, which means the percentage change is calculated based on the number of vehicles sold, without taking into account the number of selling days.”
At least this finally settles the whether or not ‘deliveries’ are the same as ‘sales’ when talking about GM.
The people that implied that deliveries were vehicles ‘sold’ to dealerships were wrong (no trucks produced in March should have equaled next to nothing deliveries).
How are sales days per month calculated? I would assume that sales days per month equal the number of days in the month minus the number of Sundays in that month. However, I am well aware of the fact that an assumption is merely a placeholder for actual data.
they can slice and dice the selling days however they want. The month vs month isn’t the end of the world. Some regions get hit by bad weather, holidays fall differently etc. Look at the YTD numbers.
Gm has sold 11% less vehicles than by April 1 last year. Thats -104,000 cars. There is no way to make up for that.
My favorite part of poring over the sales figures is the outliers. Ford sold 1 Freelander in 2007. To who? and why?
# Robert Farago :
April 1st, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Bill Wade :
Robert, Autoblog’s figures seem better than what other sources are reporting.
From DetN: “There were 26 sales days last month compared to 28 in the same month a year ago. The Detroit News reports unadjusted sales figures, which means the percentage change is calculated based on the number of vehicles sold, without taking into account the number of selling days.”
Another case of me not reading what’s right in front of my face. –BONK–
AuricTech:
This sales days thing doesn’t make much sense to me either. When I used to sell Fords in LA, we sold every day of the month. On the other hand, growing up in Texas, I was used to seeing the dealerships closed on Sundays. Anyone want to shed a little light on this?
We just recently celebrated Easter. That is, the miracle (MIRACLE!!) of Jesus H. HIMSELF rising from the dead.
Well, I wish to take this most opportune moment to thank GM for all the lovely “product” you have pushed onto my hapless family. I wish to personally thank you for that $40,000 piston-slapping Suburban, I wish to thank you for the blown head gaskets (to the tune of $1000+ repairs…and yes, there were multiple cases of this) and I too also wish to thank you for the seized transmissions, not to mention the “leather” trim falling off the inside of the doors (it was velcro’d on…no lie)…and I wish to thank you for the K-mart, JUNK depreciation which can only be matched by the free-fall speed of gravity of the Twin Tower collapse.
In other words, thank you for everything!!! You’re a real champ!
You sow what you reap. These are words of wisdom which Jesus HIMSELF taught his children.
Why, I ask, has GM forsaken the righteous path and chosen the dark side of sin, …repugnant sin??
I beseech you GM, repent…REPENT!!! YOU have sinned!!!! You are a bastardization of what a World Class company ought to be.
Thank you!
Kwanzaa… wow
I guess it is time for some deals! That is they need to move the sheet metal. A lot of people will shop American, but only if there is serious cash on the hood.
So far the lease and other deals out there are pretty tame, probably desperation has not set in yet. I see though some of the smaller brands (Suzuki) having a tough time in this economy.
GM and Chrysler are not even on my radar anymore. I do however believe Ford has a clue and I hope they will continue to improve their cars. The Fusion and the new Focus have seem to have taken off around here.
AlphaWolf. You’ve gotta put Mercury on your list.
Kwanzaa, you seem bitter about something?
Impala up 9% Malibu up 7%. Wait this can’t be.The Bu was suposed to eat the Impala.
mikey :
Impala up 9% Malibu up 7%. Wait this can’t be.The Bu was suposed to eat the Impala.
Fleets.
C’mon, TTAC, use the right numbers. This is supposed to be THE TRUTH ABOUT CARS. Parsing out the numbers by “selling days” is disengenious because a lot of car dealers sell cars every day of the month.
Even the Detroit News is being more honest than Autoblog, which uses a “selling days” fiddle to the figures. Here’s a quote from today’s Detroit News, and it is at least honest:
“Auto sales plummet in March
Detroit’s automakers and their top Japanese rivals all suffered March sales declines in a market that sank to its weakest level since 2005 as the dual impact of a slowing economy and a credit crunch kept consumers away from showrooms.”
They – AND the Detroit Free Press – are using the pure monthly numbers.
The auto industry itself uses the pure monthly numbers, and uses these numbers to calculate an annual sales forecast – which Toyota now have calculated at 15.5 million for the US, while GM are attempting to be optimistic by staying at 16 million. Both numbers are quite significantly below last years numbers, by the way.
The headline above should read GM and Chrysler sales tank 19%.
http://media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/gmnews/viewpressreldetail.do?domain=2&docid=44734
March Highlights
* Chevrolet Car Retail Sales Up 6 Percent Led By A 122 Percent Increase in Malibu and a 16 Percent Increase in Impala Sales
* Cadillac Retail Car Sales Up 22 Percent with a 43 Percent Increase in CTS and 6 Percent Increase in DTS
* Strong Retail Month at Saturn with Aura Up 25 Percent, Vue Up 18 Percent and Outlook Up 14 Percent, offsetting Ion
* Enclave, Acadia and Outlook Drive Mid-Utility Crossover Segment Up 45 Percent
* Saab Total Sales Up 12 Percent; GMC Total Sales Up 1 Percent
Q1 Highlights
* Retail Share Remains Stable Despite Market Pressures; Fleet Sales Down 7 Percent
* Continued Strength of Malibu, Impala, CTS and Aura Driving Passenger Car Growth
* GM’s Mid-Utility Crossover Segment Grows 47 Percent
Retail sales are reported as flat compared to last March.
U.S. light-vehicles sales totals March 2008
Maker / March Volume / % change from 2007 / % share / 2008 YTD volume / % change from 2007 / YTD % market share
GM 280,713 -18.7% 20.7% 800,376 -10.9% 22.4%
Ford 226,448 -14.0% 16.7% 581,784 -9.0% 16.3%
Toyota 217,730 -10.3% 16.0% 571,748 -5.6% 16.0%
Chrysler 166,386 -19.4% 12.3% 453,871 -15.5% 12.7%
Honda 138,734 -3.2% 10.2% 352,642 -0.4% 9.9%
Nissan 106,921 -3.8% 7.9% 269,745 -3.3% 7.5%
Hyundai 42,796 1.9% 3.2% 95,338 -8.5% 2.7%
Mazda 32,929 -12.8% 2.4% 77,689 -1.8% 2.2%
Volkswagen 27,832 7.8% 2.1% 71,967 -0.7% 2.0%
BMW 27,437 -5.4% 2.0% 68,678 -9.1% 1.9%
Kia 24,871 -9.8% 1.8% 68,214 -7.3% 1.9%
Mercedes 20,829 -3.8% 1.5% 57,706 2.9% 1.6%
Subaru 16,685 -7.4% 1.2% 40,881 -4.7% 1.1%
Mitsubishi 10,750 -14.2% 0.8% 27,081 -14.4% 0.8%
Suzuki 10,510 -4.7% 0.8% 26,426 -4.9% 0.7%
Porsche 2,467 -24.7% 0.2% 6,777 -17.6% 0.2%
Smart USA 1,734 NA 0.1% 3,476 NA 0.1%
Isuzu 683 -8.1% 0.1% 1,906 5.8% 0.1%
Maserati 250 15.2% 0.0% 585 11.2% 0.0%
Ferrari 163 9.4% 0.0% 403 0.8% 0.0%
TOTAL 1,356,868 -12.0% 100.0% 3,577,293 -8.0% 100.0%
Top 20 Selling Vehicles March 2008
Model / March 2008 / % change / 2008 YTD / % change
Ford F-Series 54,465 -23.8% 148,138 -13.7%
Chevrolet Silverado 42,561 -23.5% 122,779 -19.6%
Toyota Camry 40,487 -4.2% 107,002 1.1%
Honda Accord 36,214 -0.8% 87,802 -5.2%
Honda Civic 32,740 10.2% 77,532 13.8%
Nissan Altima 31,409 14.1% 76,407 3.2%
Chevrolet Impala 29,010 1.8% 71,750 -11.1%
Dodge Ram 26,318 -31.3% 68,862 -24.6%
Toyota Corolla/Matrix 25,109 -26.9% 67,047 -24.0%
Ford Focus 21,168 24.0% 49,070 23.2%
Toyota Prius 20,635 7.7% 42,907 8.1%
Honda CR-V 18,974 -3.5% 50,684 6.5%
Ford Escape 18,517 12.1% 43,900 11.7%
GMC Sierra 15,919 -3.5% 44,207 -7.5%
Ford Fusion 15,887 0.6% 40,050 0.9%
Toyota Tacoma 15,587 -14.6% 39,776 -14.1%
Pontiac G6 15,108 21.9% 45,951 28.9%
Chevrolet Malibu 14,931 7.2% 41,247 31.0%
Toyota Tundra 14,311 8.4% 40,784 39.7%
Dodge Caravan 14,104 -21.3% 33,271 -37.1%
Source: Autodata Corp.
And after riding in a friend’s less than 1 year old $40k+ fully loaded Surbuban, I can see why! You can’t leave the tailgate open for more than 30 minutes in that stupid thing without worrying about the battery dieing. And he’s had multiple electrical issues. This thing is brand friggin’ new! Yeah, I want to run out and buy a GM product now.
Ironically, I’ve been hankering for a 3 to5 year-old Jeep Wrangler, but given Chrysler’s propensity to fall apart, I think I’ll just look at getting a used Subaru Outback for my daily driver/camp vehicle…
OK I see a whole lot of conflicting reports here.
I’m confident that Frank is crunching the numbers,and we will see the true figures,soon enough.
With all the gloom and doom at GM the Malibu/Impala increase is great news.If the numbers are correct.
RF: I’m painfully aware that the fleets account for the increase.I know first hand how they destroy resale.Us people on the plant floor welcome the sales and the OT.
We blue collars are thinking of next weeks pay check.The long term ramifcations we leave up to the deep thinkers at the executive level,cough….gag..gag…cough.
mikey,
GM in March was behind in Canada too, although YTD in Canada GM is ahead of last year.
Numerous folks out there decipher sales numbers in different ways, depending on how they can “spin” the numbers.
In the US the overall results for the 1st quarter are low, and everyone anticipated and forecasted low numbers for the 1st quarter.
A lot is written here about fleet sales and I understand the logic. However, aren’t short term cheap leases the same thing. Is a 3 yr $199 per month lease on a Camry or a 3 yr. $189 lease on a fusion any different? They are still going to load up the used car market in a short while.
Also fleet sales to customers that use up the value, like municipalities or business etc. are good sales with little effect on future value or the resale.
I dont know who is telling the truth about sales
but 2 months running we are selling 2/3 used
compared to new, a mix that keeps us profitable
GMC,Pontiac-Buick
Smart rang up 1732 sales in March, outselling the Pontiac G5. Who saw THAT coming?
Capt.T- Wow, that’s a great stat.
Why did the General bring out the G5 again?
Wait a second, Ford sales DOWN ?? But the American Family Association lifted their ban , there were 750000 signatures on that list , where are all the Ford sales!!
Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.
Well, Wulv, many of these folks in fly-over land who signed the petition already bought Toyotas, Hondas, Hyundais and Kias and are no longer in the market for a new POS – I mean, Ford.
Just answering in kind.
Actually, I did notice that Fords sales had gone down significantly less than the 19% drop seen by GM and Chrysler, and wondered if some fly over folks were back at the Ford dealers after 18 months or whatever it was.
You can mock we fly over folks but good luck on getting anything to eat if WE all go on strike, as some truckers currently are.
@Bunter: You tell me. That one never made sense to me.
Capt-Ya’, and rebadging has always worked so well before…go figure.
Note on Ford scores.
Lately they have been tracking close to the industry level up/down most months. Somethiing like stability? Seemed to happen since they scored well in the last CR reliability survey. Not sure if it’s related. GM and the 3 headed pooch continue to sink as their reliability continues to stink. (OK, most are mediocre, but that doesn’t rhyme).
Whimsically,
Bunter
When one considers that the 2.8 are SERIOUSLY mismanaged with little hope of recovery (with current management and product mix), i’m taking bets on which will be the first to file Chapter 11? My money is on Chrysler being first followed by the even worse (is that even possible?) managed FoMoCo. FoMoCo’s troubles start at the Ford family level and go down (like the company they manage!). GM is harder to predict. But it comes down to the simple fact: The 2.8 are sinking and sinking fast!