After all the fuss and negativity (I'm looking at you, Justin) about the upcoming new Prius gaining three to four inches (still shorter than a Corolla) and some additional power, the really big news was left off the table. According to Auto, Motor Und Sport (paper version), Toyota has achieved its most important goals for the gen3 Prius: a 50 percent reduction of the hybrid components' weight and cost. In the words of a Toyota manager: "Our hybrid will then be cheaper than a modern diesel." Given that the new Prius will have a substantially more powerful electric motor and battery range than the last gen, this is impressive stuff. Despite Volt vaporware, or perhaps because of it (thanks Bob!), it looks like ToMoCo's gas – electric sedan is set to continue its domination of the American hybrid market. Last month, in a VERY down market, Prius sales rose 7.7 percent to 20,635 units.
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hmmmmm – does this mean PLUG IN??? (for ridiculously low energy consumption costs / mile)
or, is there some spin in the operating costs in relation to resale value?
(i know right now that resale of TDIs in NA are high, but i would argue they are artificially high right now…)
or, is it just cheaper in a TRUE COST TO OWN (in an edmunds sort of way)…
Does this now mean I can have a super efficient car, with top notch reliability and it won’t sound like a Massey-Ferguson tractor?
Brilliant!
What I’d find interesting is what the Germans (our diesels are ze most efficient powertrains in ze vorld! Anyone who says othervise is eine dummkopf!) will make of this. Will they go on a “diesels are lovely, hybrids are the anti-christ” offensive……again?
To clarify: Toyota is saying the hybrid cost (to build) is now cheaper than the extra cost of a diesel engine (about $2-$2.5k).
I like diesels, but mostly because of the economy and the torque. If Toyota actually has improved the car that much, I hope they and other manufacturers start selling more vehicles using technology like this at affordable prices. Maybe this means more manufacturers would be willing to use the Toyota components in their vehicles if they can get them cheaply enough. Whatever the case, we need more vehicles with much better fuel economy. A 30 MPG car to me is useless these days when it’s obvious that the technology is there to increase it from 30 to 45 or 50 or even more. GM is clueless, so I’m not looking in their direction for efficient vehicles.
I do not understand Toyota’s statement that it is less costly to “build” a hybrid verses a diesel.
I understand the initial development cost is high on a diesel, but surely it must be so for a hybrid to be developed.
Once completed, the cost to actually assemble is cheeper for the diesel…or am I missing something here?
Very cool. One of the problems with a plug-in is that it needs a whole lot more heavy and expensive batteries than does a hybrid, so I’m sure this vehicles isn’t a plug-in.
Toyota’s engineers and production managers are certainly on top of their game. Kudos.
“Once completed, the cost to actually assemble is cheeper for the diesel…or am I missing something here?”
You are mistaken. Diesel engines of a given capacity, especially clean ones, are much more costly to make than is an equivalent gasoline fueled engine. Check out the price premium for a diesel powered Ford Super Duty over it’s gasoline version or any of the many European market cars which are offered both ways.
ppellico and jthorner
Hmmmm, while diesels are more expensive than gas engines, I have a really hard time believing that a gas/electric hybrid will ever be cheaper than a diesel to build.
Since this is coming from Toyota, I have to take it with a grain of salt. The “authentic” statement could well be:
The modern hybrid after fully amortizing the cost of R&D and new materials sourcing is cheaper to build than the modern diesel if you include the R&D costs related to meeting modern US EPA regs to reduce particulates.
Again, even on direct materials and labor inputs, I can’t imagine how a series of batteries AND an IC engine is cheaper than just an IC engine (even a complex one)
50% reduction in both weight and cost is sick
ash78 and others: I’ve been following (and reporting on) the issue of hybrid vs. diesel engine costs. The “premium” (over a conventional gas engine) to build a modern diesel engine is about $2-$3k for a smallish four cylinder engine. Toyota’s “premium” over a conventioanl gas engine for their hybrid components was about $4-$5k, but has now been reduced to “less than a modern diesel”, which means less thsan a $3k premium.
This is what Toyota’s goal has been all along, and they’ve been saying they would do it. Sure, the R&D has to be amortized, as well as for diesels too. But Toyota’s huge volume on hybrids (will be 1 million per year soon) allows them to spread it out.
Any way you look at it, this is a significant mile post in Toyota’s development of their hybrids, especially when its costing GM some $10k for their two-mode system.
Can I run a Prius on waste veggie oil or homebrew?
Can I plug my Diesel into the wall at night?
How many angels can dance on a head of a pin anyway?
I don’t really care, and neither should anybody really. I am a consumer, and as a consumer I want CHOICE. I want to be able to pick a drivetrain and a body style and buy it. Want a Hybrid minivan? How about a Diesel 2-seat sports car?
The problem isn’t Hybrids vs. Diesel… the problem is that we (American) consumers don’t really have any choices in either category beyond a Prius or a Jetta.
–chuck
http://chuck.goolsbee.org
It’s all fine and good that Toyota has found a way to manufacture a better hybrid engine for a lot less money. However, the obvious question is will this savings be passed onto consumers? Or will Toyo keep Prius pricing the same and use these profits to offset lackluster SUV and full-size trucks sales?
Toyota previously announced that they were increasing Prius production capacity by 60% this year.
More recently, they described changes to the car that are very likely to make it more attractive to mainstream buyers (slightly bigger, better fuel economy, more power).
Now, they describe cost reductions they expect to achieve.
Toyota will be able build and SELL increased quantities of Priuses and make money doing it.
I hope Wagoner’s taking notes.
@cretinx:
If, as I am assuming, the 50% reduction in cost is from the time of introduction of the current gen Prius (2004 model year), to the time of introduction of the next gen Prius (2009 model year) many of the cost reductions from economy of scale have already taken place, so the true decrease in cost between the 2008 and 2009 Prius will be far less than 50%.
Also, since Toyota is measuring the total costs of Hybrid Synergy Drive, the transmission as well as the engine costs are in play. In terms of parts complexity, the planetary gear setup of a HSD is much simpler than that of a modern six speed automatic transmission, and should eventually be cheaper to build as well.
night driver-
I think your the first person other than myself that has mentioned one of the salient facts about HSD. It is VERY SIMPLE MECHANICALLY.
The trans/motor system is very elegant.
Don’t be surprised if they get HSD down to the price of a conventional engine/automatic combo.
Bunter
@ Bunter1: Elegant, yes. Simple, up to a point. It does involve two separate AC motors/generators, a battery pack, and sophisticated controllers.
I wouldn’t call Prius controllers sophisticated. 10 years ago, maybe. These days, an R/C electric airplane can have a more complex controller.
Either way, electric motors/controllers are way more reliable, simpler, and easier to service than an auto transmisson. And for 10+ year old cars, a dead transmission is the only common mechanical failure that will send an otherwise well-maintained car to a junkyard. Kudos to Toyota for eliminating yet another weak link.
“I have a really hard time believing that a gas/electric hybrid will ever be cheaper than a diesel to build”
I don’t. The electronics are riding an improving price:performance curve much like disk drives, computers, cell phones and such have been riding for decades. The gasoline engine portion of the Prius is a small and very inexpensive engine to build. The electric motor-generator portion can replace both the starter and alternator of a conventional car, so as volumes rise the cost of the electric motor should become a wash at some point. The control electronics are on the same price:performance improvement curve cell phones. The only major bit which is on a slower, but still improving cost curve is the battery pack, and the huge growth in volume of rechargeable batteries along with the fierce competition between a number of established and new players is going to keep that getting better as well. I can also believe that the “transmission” section of the HSD drivetrain can be made at least as cheaply as a modern five or six speed automatic.
On the other hand, the cost of making an emissions compliant diesel engine just keeps going up.
So, I don’t have any problem believing that there is a production cost parity point coming between high volume hybrid production and diesel powertrain production.
Chuck, you are right about it not being about which is better.
Of course we should all have the choice.
I only jump in when I think something misleading is being repeated or a slanted view is being put forth as legit.
I really don’t care who gets a hybrid and actually am happy they exist.
But I also remember they were alowed false MPG and given unfair purchase incentives from the governments.
As a taxpayer, I feel you can do what you like…just not with my help or my money.
And Toyota shouldn’t be alowed to continue this data crap when its not logical.
And I should have been forced to buy my diesels from VW when Europe has been getting theirs from Chrysler.
All because BIG government says I should buy a hybrid.
So, when do we see diesel electrics replacing gas electrics?
ppellico :
Chuck, you are right about it not being about which is better.
Of course we should all have the choice.
…
But I also remember they were alowed false MPG and given unfair purchase incentives from the governments.
The false MPG you speak of was the Government testing, not Toyota (or Honda) intentionally trying to lie, legally they can’t say anything to condradict the numbers. As for the incentives, as I understand it Toyota used up their allotment long ago, and prius sales continue to climb. You can still get a tax break (paid for by you and I) on a hybrid from other automakers though.
I really worry about the day Toyota releases a 2-door hybrid coupe with insane torque off the line. In a coupe, all that family equipment crap can either be deleted for weight savings or replaced with bigger engine/motor. Can I live in a world of silent performance?
Don’t forget, diesels tend to be twin-turbo. That certainly adds a premium!
carlisimo
All the passenger diesels in the US are single turbo, unless someone can show differently. I know BMW does a great sequential turbo I-6 diesel, but it’s not sold here.
Tired of the arguments of diesel being more expensive.
Hybrid lovers simply deny the benefits of a diesel…longevity or strength.
I need to remind all again that in the frozen north, diesels are run ALL night to keep warm. Ever try that with a hybrid?
Just see how long they last.
How come you don’t see hybrid trucks?
I mean REAL trucks.
Refusal by the US government to abide by world environmental standards and place diesels at a disadvantage is ignored.
Look, in the featured article above, the manufacturer even states that diesels have been cheaper…and ONLY in the future will Toyota achieve the goal of bettering diesels.
Please…just let ME have MY choice and my diesel.
LOvers of both hybrid (because I know you really love to save the world’s oil) and diesel lovers…
Here is the truth about diesel…
http://www.thetorquereport.com/2008/04/vw_jetta_bluetdi_for_the_us_ma.html
Sorry for the non TTAC link, but I use many car lover sights…
ppellico, i have absolutely no hate for diesels, wish my 4runner had one the small turbo diesels toyota sold them with everywhere else. Next passenger car is a hybrid though.
OK.
Here is some information to consider, along with other pros and cons…
http://www.edmunds.com/advice/strategies/articles/121734/article.html
And now, be honest…
Who would rather have a prius over this…??
Really…be honest, kids.
http://digiads.com.au/car-news/latest-VOLKSWAGEN-news/2009_Volkswagen_Jetta_TDI_SportWagon_Diesel_200711/photos_6.html
ppellico: One BIG problem with the Edmunds advice article; its a year old, and fuel prices have changed big time. They used $2,77 for gas; $2.85 for diesel. Here, diesel is running 65 cents (20%) higher than gas. Do the math; it answers change dramatically.
ppellico: I am now (as of 4/23) an ex-diesel owner. As such, during my tenure as a diesel driver I learned that these super rosey pictures people kept telling me about diesel engines wasn’t quite gospel.
Sure, I could run WVO if I would’ve gone out and bought an old MB or something, but there’s no WVO/SVO in a new TDI-PD.
Sure, I could go ahead and distill my own bio-d if I had the room and time to equip myself. Of course, when that was done I would have had to then upgrade parts of my system and void my manufacturer’s warranty, VW only allows B20 max.
Sure, there’s a 40% increase in economy, but that comes with a 30% increase in cost. It also doesn’t take into effect fuel additives, which while small do count in the long run.
Sure, they’re low maitenance and run forever, until you’ve got a problem. Then you’ve got to hope you know a good small diesel mechanic, to say nothing of expensive parts.
Sure, its a torquey engine and fun to drive, 180# of torque can only make up so much of a difference when you’re dealing with a 100HP engine. Passing on the highway? Plan ahead.
The same sort of 100HP figure comes in plenty of lowgrade, gas powered, econoboxes that really can get great mileage on the highway without the 30% fuel surcharge and maintenance worries. I wouldn’t have had to special order my 506.01 grade synthetic oil from the Internet to maintain them, either. I could’ve gone to any gas station on the planet instead of hoping the next one supported diesel fuel (which is, admittedly, mostly a red herring) and any mechanic to fix it. The gasser’s exhaust also doesn’t have a higher likelihood of causing braindamage in my infant children and also provides heat within a minute of starting my car, rather than after I’ve managed to start my car and drive to the daycar where I drop my kids off. See, my TDI would only then begin to effectively heat my cabin.
Life with a diesel isn’t all sunshine and puppy dogs.
Paul…
Yes, it is understood that the age of the feature makes sense, but the new diesels are different as well.
gfen…I do not understand the difficulty of repair cost.
Are you saying that hybrid repairs are seldom and inexpensive when they occure?
In my humble opinion, most really fun cars require premium gas.
Now folks, when I look at my gas prices here in Chicago and MO, premium is only 35 to 40 cents more.
http://www.illinoisgasprices.com/index.aspx?fuel=D
So let’s be clear here.
AND this is not natual or historical.
Let’s see how diesel changes in the summer.
AND, PLEASE, there is no 30 percent more in cost.
Please stop throwing these numbers around and expect me to accept them.
I just showed an article where hybrids cost more…so what’s up?
I have shown that VW will ask 23K for its new diesel.
Thats just above the regular with premium.
So let’s get real.
In my humble opinion, there’s plenty of fun cars that run on RUG. Fast cars require premium, and again, you can argue torque trumps horses all day long but I’m here to tell you reality is that a stock diesel car isn’t gonna be tearing up the asphalt.
“Now folks, when I look at my gas prices here in Chicago and MO, premium is only 35 to 40 cents more.” – Good for you. Here its $3.65 versus $4.59. 94c. So… “AND, PLEASE, there is no 30 percent more in cost.” You’re right, that’s not 30% at this stage. Over the winter it certainly was, though.
“Please stop throwing these numbers around and expect me to accept them.” You mean…like you’ve been doing? You’ve given us an article that’s very out of date, where the RUG/D2 difference was much lower. You’ve also made up a price that you think VW is going to charge for their new diesel. You do know that the Tiguan’s original starting price has gone up quite significantly lately due to the weak dollar, to say nothing of dealers who plan to charge “market price” for their cars and the sheer fact that I’m sure you won’t be seeing new stripped model TDIs on the lots, but only the premium models w ith all the goodies.
I’m curious, though…what do YOU drive and where do you drive it?
The only place buying a diesel car trumps a hybrid is on the highways. I’m telling you this as an ex-TDI owner. Yes, I drove an automagic version, and my real world average mileage (probably about 66%/33% city/hway) was _34 mpg_ this winter.
OTOH, I can’t say I’m displeased that people like you continue to push the diesel superiority myth because I was able to trade to a decent family car and come out barely bruised. However, the current market for TDIs is softening as several fellow forum dwellers/dealers with auction reports told me when I queried them on the realistic value of my car. They told me that a few months back I’d have come out way on top, and that the market was softening.
Again, diesel will always be an also-ran in the USA with the exception of people who truly need massive torque (towing) or spend their lives commuting on a highway, and even those are probably in doubt as the hybrid revolution continues.
I can only offer the data I have.
If you have data showing hybrids are cheaper to repair as you claim, present it.
If you have data showing diesels lose value better than hybrids, present it.
If you show data that VW has NOT proclaimed the TDI 08 price, present it.
I have presented their priceing plan in the links.
You must show otherwise.
As far as your prediction on diesel in the USA, right on.
Based upon what?
Diesels have been restricted here and required to have different standards than in Europe.
The price of gasoline in the USA has been low, not like in Europe.
Now, with gas finally rising, suddenly the diesel talk and cars have begun to show up.
So, we will see who is right about the future of diesel in the USA.
As I will once more point out, diesels account for more than 50 percent of all cars sales in Europe.
You still cannot address this, but I can.
Its called the price of gas!
I knew you would pick the Prius over the hot new Jetta Sports wagon….
I drive, although not often,
A Trailblazer 02.
(I tow often)
A Mazda3 05.
A Cavalier 01.
A Caravan 99.
I just purchased a Rav4 07 for my sister.
And I just purchased another Mazda3 07 for my brother.
So…what does this mean?
It means all this talk is meaningless Internet drivel as you haven’t actually owned a diesel car and dealt with all its unique charms.
First, you’re twisting my words…I never said a hybrid car was cheaper to repair than a diesel car, I said that a cheap gasser econobox with essentially the same power was cheaper.
Second, VW has already previously proclaimed the Tiguan price only have seriously revised it to the tune of several thousand dollars recently. They’ve also proclaimed that Jetta wagons and all manner of new TDI powered cars would be on the lots…Not so much. Finally, even if they hold the line on that price it means actually finding the stripped base modelon the lot (g’luck with that) and the dealer not augmenting the price based on “market demand” because of diesel chumps like you.
And, thirdly, the reason that there’s so many diesel cars in Europe has less to do with the economy and everything to do with the price. Diesel is taxed significantly less than gas.
Look, you’ve never experienced life with a diesel car. I have. It wasn’t nearly as pleasurable as you seem to think. Frankly, it kinda sorta really sucked and thankfully I didn’t even require any of that special VW customer care that comes with their cars, under my ownership it was trouble free.
In the United States, much to the chagrin and gnashing teeth of the “enthusiast” crowd, diesel will never rise above an also-ran if for no other reason than global economies dictate that the Eurasians want diesel fuel, and the North Americans want gasoline, and because of that we’ll continue to sell excess diesel to them and they’ll continue to sell excess gasoline to us and the barely-there diesel owners of America will just have to content themselves on the smugness of their purchases and continue to engage in the sooty circle jerk they’ve cloistered themselves in.
Um..never said I owned a diesel.
So, the rule now is if you haven’t owned a diesel, or any car we want to discuss, you cannot seak to it.
I don’t think so, gfen.
But we need to leave it here.
You are telling us the diesel will never make it here.
Well, I guess we’ll see.
And if you can, some time in the future, explain to me the economics that have the Europeans and Asian wanting diesel.
Other than the price of gas, as I explained in artificially low here and has caused Americans to think like pigs, I cannot think of any.
The fact is, we restrict diesel due to ecological rulings of ours…they don’t.
And just because Americans want things differently, they could be wrong.
Take the SUV craze, for instance.
And, as a last note, many replies were from folks who loved their diesels.
And the fact that they, and I, cannot get one is taken out of our hands.
For the record, here are some preditions for the future…and not from me.
Its been fun, though…hasn’t it?
But get ready, its not just me…
http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4237945.html?page=2
http://www.businessweek.com/autos/content/jul2007/bw20070713_699758.htm
And why is this…?
http://mydrive.roadfly.com/blog/ExJxZ3/