Remember back in 2004, Ford unveiled its new Focus and announced "The Year of The Car?" FoMoCo's cash cow was (and still is) a pickup truck. Clock FoMoCo's passenger car offerings four years later, and you'd be forgiven for thinking the auto show hyperbole was just that. But now it's here for real: the year of the car. In April, passenger cars outsold trucks in the U.S. new vehicle market for the first time in two decades. This is a truly amazing moment in U.S. automotive history, representing the roll-back of the SUV boom. With federal fuel economy regulations in the offing, it's unlikely that even a huge drop in gas prices can reverse the tide. Let's take a closer look at this watershed month.
Passenger car sales rose 4.5 percent (April '07 vs. April '08). Truck sales fell by 17.2 percent. When the blood was cleaned off the carpet, U.S. new passenger vehicle sales ended-up 6.8 percent below last April's total. So far this year, car sales are down 1.5 percent and truck sales 13.4 percent, producing a 7.7 percent drop overall. That's the big picture; now let's look at a few specifics…
Pickup Trucks
The Chevy Silverado suffered a 24.7 drop from April of 2007; year-to-date (YTD) sales sank 20.8 percent. While F-Series still holds onto its "best selling vehicle" title, sales were off by 21 percent for the month, down 15.5 percent for the year. Even huge incentives and sweet deals couldn't pull the Dodge Ram out if its death spiral, finishing April 23.3 percent below last year; down 24.2 percent YTD. For the first time since the new model was introduced, the Toyota Tundra ended the month below last year; April sales slipped six percent. But they're still up 24.8 percent YTD.
Passenger Cars
The Chevy Malibu continues its sales climb, ending the month 39.5 percent above last April, 22.5 percent ahead of last year. Ford's Fusion also had a good month. Sales ascended by 22.4 percent for month, six percent on year. Chrysler wasn't so fortunate. The 300 dropped 36.8 percent for the month, down 22.2 percent on the year. The Toyota Camry managed to stay 5.6 percent ahead of last April, 2.3 percent ahead YTD. Honda Accord sales jumped 17.5 percent for the month. But that's up just 0.2 percent for the year.
Truck-based SUVs
It's no wonder that GM is shutting down SUV production for the year. Tahoe sales finished April down a whopping 29.4 percent, trailing 27.1 percent YTD. Ford and Chrysler may want to consider following GM's lead. Explorer sales declined 38.5 percent from last April; 25 percent YTD. Dodge Durango was even worse. Sales are now so low that a difference of only 2k sales from last April resulted in a 38.5 percent drop; year to date the Durango dies by 38.6 percent. Toyota's Sequoia continues selling above last year, with a 34.4 percent gain for April and a 17.9 percent growth for the year so far.
CUVs
For the first time this year, sales of GMC's Acadia dropped below the previous year's, ending the month down 8.8 percent. However, thanks to a very strong showing in the first quarter, Acadia sales are up 43.3 percent YTD. Ford's Edge edged ahead of last April by 13.1 percent, bettering last year's sales by a whopping 37.9 percent. The Toyota Highlander was down 1.1 percent for the month, but still managed to stay 5.3 percent ahead of the first four months of 2007. Honda's Pilot went the other way, ending 1.3 percent ahead of April 2007, down 5.4 percent for the year.
Prius
It's no wonder that Toyota is thinking about expanding Prius into an entire line of vehicles. Sales are booming. We're talking about a 66.6 percent surge in April and a 22.6 percent gain over this time last year. With gas prices continuing to climb, demand for Toyota's rolling computer doesn't seem to be likely to diminish any time soon.
Total Sales
Historically, overall vehicle sales tend to dip in April. When you start the year well below the previous year, dips tend to look more like a swan dive off the ten-meter board. GM ended April 16.2 percent below last April and starts May down 13.2 percent for the year. Ford did slightly better, dropping only 12.1 percent for the month and 9.8 percent for the year. Chrysler would gladly swap places with either of them, with sales down 23.5 percent compared to April '07 and down 17.6 percent for the year. The transplants fared a bit better than the natives. Toyota finished the month 3.4 percent ahead of last April but down 3.3 percent on the year. Honda had the best showing of all, increasing 6.8 percent in April and up 1.5 percent year to date.
The Future
Next month, we'll see if GM's production cutbacks (and strikes) have any impact on their sales. Toyota's announced price increases may throw a spanner in the works. (Or not.) And Chrysler's cut-rate gasoline promotion could ignite sales. (or not.) One thing's for sure: it may be the year of the car, but for the domestics, it's not the carmaker's year.
What happens to that Chrysler cut-rate gasoline when they go belly up?
Pahaska:
Gone. But that will be the least (lease?) of your problems. Trade-in value? Gone. Service department? Who knows? Parts? Who knows?
Mr Farago,
Finding parts for a Chrysler will be easy. Just find a 10 year old Mercedes-Benz and strip it down!
The Prius is storming forward. Whilst it’s doing that, may I take this opportunity to remind Bob Lutz, Carlos Ghosn and the Germans that hybrids are not a fad and diesels aren’t the panacea you think they are….
It’s no wonder that Toyota is thinking about expanding Prius into an entire line of vehicles.
Yo, Toyota!
Hyundai just announced they’re not going to build their unibody pickup, the Tacoma’s oversized, the Ranger’s dead, the Frontier’s too heavy, and the Colorado sucks.
I’m figuring on a Ford Mustang, but if you can build me your Toyota A-BAT concept and it gets 40 mpg, I’ll buy one. Just make it less ugly. I know those Hollywood yuppie types love their fashion statements, I just want a truck.
You wanna make the Prius an entire line of vehicles? Trucks are the first place to start. C’mon, you’ll have the whole compact market to yourself. Save unreliable Chinese pickups and expensive Mahindras naturally.
It is interesting that the Civic plus Civic Hybrid outsold the Accord. Is Civic the new Accord and Fit the new Civic?
Also it appears all the luxury brands dropped more than the market drop.
How about a top ten list? to put numbers on it, not just percentages. ( just an idea)
I look at the Focus sales numbers and am reminded of the Planters Super Bowl Ad…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=G4J52QaD6mw
Could “Sync” be to the less than sleek Focus that peanut oil is to ugly girl ?
“hybrids are not a fad and diesels aren’t the panacea you think they are….”
Thats more based on public ideas behind the cars than whats truely practical. I’d get a diesel any day before i’d buy a hybrid.. but i’m the type to keep a car for the long haul and not trade in right as my first battery is going dead
I’d get a diesel any day before i’d buy a hybrid.. but i’m the type to keep a car for the long haul
I am the same way – drive it until the wheels fall off. Unfortunately, the current economic realities in the US (ludicrous price – currently 65¢ higher in my area than regular unleaded) do not support diesel.
Juniper :
How about a top ten list? to put numbers on it, not just percentages. ( just an idea)
Top Ten Cars, Jan – Apr 2008
Camry – 147,018
Accord – 123,152
Civic – 110,132
Corolla/Matrix – 99,482
Altima – 99,073
Impala – 98,478
Focus – 72,920
Cobalt – 66,660
Prius – 64,664
Malibu – 59,133
Top Ten Trucks, Jan – Apr 2008
F-Series – 192,951
Silverado – 160,010
Ram – 93,068
CR-V – 72,184
Escape – 59,299
Sierra – 57,403
Tacoma – 55,363
Tundra – 54,134
Econoline – 49,196
Caravan – 47,936
Just yesterday, probably the last of the great American muscle cars drove off the line.
http://www.allpar.com/photos/dodge/challenger/2008-challenger-launch.jpg
Which is sad, as the Prius line will never look this good. :(
Toyota’s Sequoia continues selling above last year, with a 34.4 percent gain for April and a 17.9 percent growth for the year so far.
This does not make sense to me. Why is it that this monster is gaining while the other monsters are dying, unatural selection?
oboylepr
Toyota’s Sequoia continues selling above last year, with a 34.4 percent gain for April and a 17.9 percent growth for the year so far.
This does not make sense to me. Why is it that this monster is gaining while the other monsters are dying, unatural selection?
That’s a problem with dealing in percentages. Just like a loss of 2K sales makes creates a 38.5 percent drop in Durango sales due to the small numbers involved, an increase of only 684 units will show up as a 34.4 percent gain for Sequoia.
I believe the Sequioa is newly redesigned (based on the new Tundra), which explains it’s sales gains (although it still sells in fairly low numbers).
Interesting that the Tacoma is outselling the Tundra.
The old Impala still sells well…50% fleet-sales still?
Chrysler is toast.
I must say it warms my heart that car sales have finally tipped the scales and surpassed trucks. There is truly nothing worse than being a car driver in a sea of trucks on the highway.
On a side note, when Ford announced “the Year of the Car”, I recall them referring to the 500 and or Fusion….not the Focus. Maybe I need to quit drinking.
glad to see that passenger truck sales continue to fall compared with passenger cars…
though, look at those numbers…
still, a ridiculous number of f-series, silverado and rams (compared with the car numbers…)
also, the econoline outselling the caravan???
wow!
So if gas prices stay where they are or continue to trend up I can see the Prius breaking into the top 5 cars by 2010, assuming Toyota can make enough of them.
Pahaska:
What happens to that Chrysler cut-rate gasoline when they go belly up?
Like others have said, it goes away. BUT, it gets replaced by a fire sale of well equipped new Rams for $12K… (with no warranty)
We just arrived home with our 2nd Prius (still have the 2004 model) and the waiting list has recently ballooned back up to 5 months. (We waited about 3 weeks for ours; good thing I finally convinced the wife to make her color choice).
The one thing that surprised me the most in Frank’s Top Ten Trucks list is that the Toyota RAV-4 isn’t on it. I can’t even find sales numbers for it.
In April, passenger cars outsold trucks in the U.S. new vehicle market for the first time in two decades.
Thanks frickin’ God. Now all I have to do is wait for the legions of Cayennes, Ranger Rovers, and Escalades to kick the bucket and the streets will be clear of these behemoths. What’s the next choice for the pretentious elite?
I am surprised at the decline of the 300. I thought it was different enough to appeal without being polarizing or a novelty, which typically have short shelf lives. Any theories?
NickR said: “I am surprised at the decline of the 300. I thought it was different enough to appeal without being polarizing or a novelty, which typically have short shelf lives. Any theories?”
Umm, in the spirit of this topic, how about “Truck-like fuel mileage?”
Meanwhile, in the Under-The-Radar-Manufacturers Department, here’s a link to Suzuki’s US sales figures for April 2008. The Reader’s Digest version: Suzuki sales were up 5% year-over-year, compared to April 2007. On the down side, CYTD sales are down 2%. Of the firms mentioned in the TTAC editorial, only Honda seems to have done better overall.
And to think that GM sold off most of its share of Suzuki in 2006….
ETA: For the 2008 TTAC Ten Worst Automobiles competition, please note that Suzuki has actually sold two (presumably not preowned) Veronas during CY2008. Does that make the 2006 Verona eligible for consideration?
CarShark :
The one thing that surprised me the most in Frank’s Top Ten Trucks list is that the Toyota RAV-4 isn’t on it. I can’t even find sales numbers for it.
The RAV-4 was down 11.9 percent in April compared to last April and down 15.9 percent year to date. Toyota has sold 47,200 RAV-4s in the first 4 months of this year.
NickR
I am surprised at the decline of the 300. I thought it was different enough to appeal without being polarizing or a novelty, which typically have short shelf lives. Any theories?
There are a number of factors at play there. Like thoots said, less than desirable fuel economy numbers has something to do with it. Also, the flashy “gangsta” styling is beginning to get old. The 300 hit the market in 2004 as an early 2005 model, meaning it’s been on the market basically unchanged for 4 years. It’s in need of a freshening, if not a total redesign.
Chrysler is facing internal competition from Dodge, which sold more than double the number of Chargers in April than Chrysler sold 300s; Charger is outpacing 300 by over 10k units YTD. Then there are declining fleet sales as Chrysler tries to wean itself from the rental car dumping grounds.
Each one of these alone would impact sales. Add all of them together and you have a sales disaster in the making.
I just got rid of my ’04 GP GTP and got a Cobalt (GMS discount and student cash flow) because it got such horrible gas mileage. I even tried to drive, for lack of a better term, like an old lady and still could only manage 16 in the city and 24 on the interstate.
The salesman said they couldn’t keep Cobalts on the lot much longer than a few days and he traded for 3 manuals the day he got mine. As I’m sure many have noticed, there’s lots of trucks on the dealer lots as I drive by.
Add me to those happy to see the popularity of the “truck” waining. Why anyone would ever want one as a commuter to an office job is beyond me, SUV’s & CUV’s included. As for their utility, the guys at the lumberyard are always amazed how much I can haul in an Accord with the back seat folded down…or on a roof rack.
Hi Frank,
As always your charts give more clarity than all the quacking of so-called industry analysts.
One request. How about a line on the manufacturer graphs that shows equivalent of last years monthly results adjusted for the months decline industry wide (example: if the industry is down 10% there is a data point 10% down from the previous year, if the 2008 data was off 5% it would fall above it, off 15% it would fall below).
It would illustrate how the companies are doing in the buying publics eyes better, I think, than the raw numbers do.
Will we see another update on the small car numbers?
Thanks for your efforts.
Bunter