CNN declares that "compared with March a year earlier, Americans drove an estimated 4.3 percent less– that's 11 billion fewer miles." The Federal Highway Administration called it "the sharpest yearly drop for any month… since 1942" (when they started keeping records). At the same time, public transportation ridership has hit the highest level in 50 years. The AAA pegs average regular gas prices at $3.936/gallon this Memorial Day, compared to $3.23 last year. Now a sixty cent increase over a year really isn't very much in the grand scheme of things, but the magic number of $4 per gallon seems to have hit the nation's collective panic button. One thing doesn't add up. The Energy Information Center says fuel use is down only 0.6 percent for the first three months of the year. The D.O.T. says March miles traveled are down 4.3 percent. Those two numbers don't seem to jibe, but who says government agency numbers ever make sense? Pick whichever numbers you like, the trend is clear: $4+ per gallon gasoline is curtailing the world's most mobile nation's mobility.
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I think the word you want is “jibe,” not “jive.”
And this was back in March. We’ll see what the numbers look like for May.
Buick61:
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I think the word you want is “jibe,” not “jive.”
My bad. Text amended. Although I think jive is funnier…
Well, I guess anything is an improvement. I wonder if the disparity between miles driven and fuel used is due to the E10 mandate that’s becoming ever more widespread…I can’t think of any other factor that would account for such a large discrepancy, unless everyone was suddenly flooring it.
Yep, E10 really should make a difference. My state will switch 100% to it over the course of this year, and has already done so for the most populous areas. A 10% decrease in the amount of “oil” in your gasoline can’t be something to sneeze at.
Plus, you bet that “miles driven” is going way down. It’s like the increase in the use of mass transit — hell, yes, we want to drive our own cars, dammit! Right up to the point where we just plain can’t AFFORD to do it! Or, at the least to the point where we comprehend that it’s counter-productive to the rapid increase in gas prices to do so.
Now, if only a few of the anti-mass-transit types could begin to understand this dynamic some day….
$4/gallon gasoline will be a threshold that folks will eventually accept, just like we were all shocked when gasoline went to $3/gallon.
It doesn’t surprise me in the least that people drive less, as they have to adjust to this new reality. Our family is not immune to this new circumstance, either. We didn’t travel home for our traditional Indy 500 parties, and when we drop our child off for her summer semester, we’ll be renting the smallest minivan we can shove all of her stuff into.
If I hit it wrong, in one week we could conceivably go through $150 filling up all three cars. I have parked one until I can repair it (although the timing of the repair works well), and my wife has taken to carpooling with a co-worker to soften the dent to our budget.
I would hazard to guess that most regular folks are doing the same things we are.
thoots
Let me clarify re: E10…I meant that since it reduces your fuel economy by several percent, it could account for why people are driving less, yet still using almost as much fuel.
But to your point, it should reduce the use of oil specifically.
I wonder if the disparity between miles driven and fuel used is due to the E10 mandate that’s becoming ever more widespread…
I haven’t looked at the data, but I doubt that’s it.
It may be explained by the fact that all driving is not created equal, the cuts are not likely to have been evenly distributed among vehicle types and usage. If drivers have been reducing their disposable miles, such as pleasure travel, then you can presume that it is some of the most efficient driving — highway cruising — that has been pared down, while much of the inefficient stop-and-go commuting and fuel-intensive heavy trucking continues.
Over the holiday weekend, I got together with my long-time friend for some motorcycle riding in Elizabethtown, Kentucky. Traffic overall seemed pretty light through the entire weekend.
That said, one thing I did notice was folks with SUV’s towing jet-skis. I wonder how gas prices are going to affect the jet ski makers, boat makers, trailer makers etc?
It had to happen eventually. A perpetual increase in gas consumption is simply not a sustainable proposition. Nor is a perpetual growth in population or per capita consumption. Every great party has to come to an end eventually (usually with a massive hangover).
Pch101
Good call on the type of driving being reduced, I hadn’t thought of that. I guess I just have the E10 chip on my shoulder at the moment…it just started showing up here about a month ago and most stations carry it now.
Pch101 has it right, if you reduce a ton of miles travelled by more efficient vehicles, the effect on fuel consumption won’t be as great as the effect on miles.
Here in Canada I understand the price has become the equivelant of over $5.00 a gallon. $1.37 a litre. My wife and I’s vacation camping trip to the Gaspe about 1200 miles, has become a Staycation. (Stay closer to home) $800.00 in gas for a camping trip is now a budget line item.
Minivan and a hard top camper.
A lot of households have rationalized their “fleets” to have the guzzlers on the least intensive commute.
A supervisor at my work used to use his Toyota Tundra as his commuter, now his wife uses it while he drives the Honda.
This spring we are seeing more scooters (not just motorcycles) on the roads around here than before. Also seeing the big vehicles rolling around with lighter feet on the pedals, I am outrunning them in my little VW easily. Would like to see some of the local restaurant numbers b/c they look a little lighter too.
We’re not driving around as much. I am taking note of the fuel costs anytime we go somewhere. I know how much it takes to drive to work, what that Sunday drive costs, how much it costs to go to Grandma’s house, etc.
When the politicians (Hillary) starts talking about universal health care in the USA get out your calculator and start doing some numbers. It’s a noble pursuit but can you/we/I afford it? The money has to come from somewhere. Europe does it with huge taxes on everything including fuel.
We COULD be smarter from these price increases but I’ve got a feeling that if prices ever dip again some folks will run out for the biggest, thirstiest vehicles they can find.
Anybody got a link to the current fuel prices around the world? All I can find are out of date prices.
One thing doesn’t add up. The Energy Information Center says fuel use is down only 0.6 percent for the first three months of the year. The D.O.T. says March miles traveled are down 4.3 percent.
Not much of a paradox, probably just imprecise reportage involving two dissimilar metrics. Most likely the Energy Information Admin’s number includes diesel fuel burned by semi-tractor trailers, trains, and mass transit — all of which are going flat out despite the weak consumer economy. That’s my guess.
The price of gas isn’t high enough. The other day I walked to the coffee shop (to save gas and reduce my ass) and more than one big honkin’ SUV pulled up, Suzie Selle-Fowne hopped out, went inside to get her skim, half-caf, no-whip, nutmeg-powdered, double-cupped latte’ and left the monster running!
My girlfriend’s car has had gas tank trouble, and her mechanic suggested it could be all the E10. I hope not.
Anyway, I’m kind of glad this is happening. I hope the car has a long life, but not as a commute vehicle… it’s where most of our gas goes but let’s face it, commuting isn’t pleasant. Traffic’s been getting worse throughout the country, we can’t build roads fast enough to keep up, and it’s a waste. All that freeway commuting should be done by mass transit, with personal transportation at both ends of that trip. Obviously that leaves a few details to be worked out (what to drive between home and transit hub 1, and between transit hub 2 and your office) but we can do that. Then on weekends the car will continue to give us the freedom we enjoy and those drives will be a lot more enjoyable.
I’m taking the train to work these days and it’s quite nice. I’ve been reading a lot of books now. Yes, there are downsides, but driving in gridlock was one too.
“$4/gallon gasoline will be a threshold that folks will eventually accept, just like we were all shocked when gasoline went to $3/gallon.”
The difference is that when we hit $3 people made noise, but didn’t change their collective behavior. $4, on the other hand, has induced a documented behavioral change.
The roads definitely have less vehicle traffic on them now during evenings and weekends. Also, way more cars then trucks/suvs now.
One nice side effect of the high fuel prices: There aren’t ~50 police cars driving around anymore! I rarely see any when I’m out these days.
I was out one day in my efficient fuel burner(burns lots of fuel!), and noticed it seemed that most were also out just for a pleasure cruise.
Burn it while you can.
KixStart, I think “the price of gas isn’t high enough” isn’t quite right. That should read “for some people, the price of gas isn’t high enough [to change their behavior to be more efficient].”
Rich people often waste gargantuan amounts of energy. Most of their energy is wasted out of sight of the less-than-rich, so it goes unnoticed. With the higher price of gasoline, the less-than-rich are now starting to notice more of the driving waste.
Here are a couple of rich-people activities to consider. (And also consider that CAFE is merely a tax on the not-so-rich so that the rich can continue their non-CAFE affected activities.) Private jets typically burn gallons per mile, not miles per gallon. McMansions built in the blazing desert or tropics can use $1000 of electricity just for a month of A/C. The Queen Elizabeth II burns 82 thousand gallons of “bunker fuel” (aka: really dirty diesel) per day while at cruising speed with a mere 1900 paying passengers. That comes to 43 gallons per day per passenger and
doesn’t even count using its full 128000 horsepower. See: http://www.qe2.org.uk/engine.html#faq
Anyway, the new fuel costs are going to create a situation where the less-than-rich and the formerly-rich of the USA are suddenly going to wake up and take note of the fact they have been left far far far behind the rich.
Of course, if China and India continue to drive more, slight drops in American’s driving habits won’t matter much, at least in terms of the price of oil.
SunnyvaleCA :
Anyway, the new fuel costs are going to create a situation where the less-than-rich and the formerly-rich of the USA are suddenly going to wake up and take note of the fact they have been left far far far behind the rich.
Absolutely. We are truly headed toward the day when “personal vehicular transportation” will be unaffordable for the average citizen. Vote for the candidate who’s willing to start World War III so we can TAKE all of the oil that should rightfully be ours.
Geotpf :
Of course, if China and India continue to drive more, slight drops in American’s driving habits won’t matter much, at least in terms of the price of oil.
Sad, but I sure agree with that assessment….
@# Geotpf :
May 28th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Of course, if China and India continue to drive more, slight drops in American’s driving habits won’t matter much, at least in terms of the price of oil.
===
Fuel will be too expensive for Indians and Chinese to build the roads and infrastructure they need for all those projected cars …
“Vote for the candidate who’s willing to start World War III so we can TAKE all of the oil that should rightfully be ours.”
I hope that was an attempt at a joke, but World Wars are no joking matter.
“Most likely the Energy Information Admin’s number includes diesel fuel burned by semi-tractor trailers, trains, and mass transit — all of which are going flat out despite the weak consumer economy.”
That might be, but other news reports have said that truckers are going bust and taking rigs off the road, airlines are reducing speeds and cutting flights, trucking lines are reducing speeds to improve fuel economy and the economy is slowing, reducing the need for shipping. Building materials in particular are in a slow down from the lowest new housing construction pace in years. Mass transit use is certainly up, but I don’t think running the trains closer to capacity has a big impact on fuel use.
It is probably more a case of two different sets of people and adding machines looking at two different sets of data and estimates.
California has had monthly declines in fuel consumption for nearly two years, so this response to escalating fuel prices isn’t so new. I see a very slight reduction in traffic in Los Angeles, but much less than is apparent in a recession induced by sharp increase in job loss. What is far more noticeable is that many more people are driving more moderately. Prevailing speed is down a bit, and there’s less cowboying and fewer stoplight derbies. There’s still a lot of elasticity in the typical American family spending mix, for funds to shift to fuel, but $4.00 does seem to kick in a perception of crisis worth some degree of response.
Of course, we saw the same patterns twice in the 1970s, when fuel doubled overnight in both instances, so time will tell whether Americans absorb $4.00+ gasoline with their extant preferences intact, or adapt with a real change in habits and practices.
It makes no difference to me. I drive considerably less than I did eight or ten years ago simply because I work much closer to where I live. If I had other reasons to change that, I’d be driving more. I think many if not most other people are in the same situation. And our multi-vehicle family fleets allow many people to juggle what vehicle absorbs most of their mileage.
Meanwhile, there is more than 20 cents difference in the price of premium gasoline between two gas stations of the same brand less than 2 miles apart in my neighborhood in Los Angeles, so there the price of fuel is obviously not objectively determined, nor grounded in any cost-plus economics. I just buy it at the most convenient dispenser when I need it. We see Robert tracking the erosion of pickup and SUV sales volumes. There’s nothing interesting in that. What’s interesting is that the combined categories will still sell in the millions this year.
Phil
Americans must look rather selfish with the image shown in this sort of article. What about the rising middle-classes of India and China who were on the brink of being able to afford a car and now cannot? For them, a car is the key to a new kind of life. I have seen the availability of a single personal vehicle within a several-square mile geographical region save a life in the third world. People die if they cannot get gas.
If personal transportation is good for America then it is good for all people in the world. Most Americans will not lose their personal transportation, but will drive less.
Is there more of an injustice from the “haves” (Americans) somewhat losing their cheap adn unnecessary transportation or the “not-haves” not getting that transportation to begin with?
I hope that was an attempt at a joke, but World Wars are no joking matter.
What? War is no joking matter? Especially for the losers. :-)
At least if we did bomb the countries that hate us and take the oil, we would at least live up to the hate of all those anti-American groups, thugs, and dictators. No, we prefer to just buy their oil and support their oppressive regimes.
After I posted, “The price of gas isn’t high enough… [to stop people pointlessly idling their cars…],” SunnyvaleCA took me to task for it, reasonably enough.
And I really should have said, “for SOME PEOPLE, the price of gas isn’t high enough.” For others, I’m sure it’s already very painful.
However, we could discuss what “waste,” is. Sure, the QE2 uses a lot of oil. However, it’s not being “wasted,” in an absolute sense. There is a point to its use – luxury travel. I’d hate to see the end of luxury travel, I hope to enjoy some of it myself, someday. If we found other substitutes for oil, it would seem to me to be a perfectly reasonable thing to continue to use some of it for luxury travel.
What provoked my outburst was that the people at the coffee shop were pointlessly wasting gas. Temps are moderate, there wasn’t even any value to running the A/C to keep the car from getting hot while they were inside.
Also, few in my town are part of “the rich.” Many have large incomes but, aside from whatever home equity they may still have in the face of significant home price declines, close to nothing in assets. Outgo around here is usually equal to or greater than the income.
thoots :
Vote for the candidate who’s willing to start World War III so we can TAKE all of the oil that should rightfully be ours.
It’s more like we need another Civil War to get at the oil contained within our borders…
KixStart: The other day I walked to the coffee shop (to save gas and reduce my ass) and more than one big honkin’ SUV pulled up, Suzie Selle-Fowne hopped out, went inside to get her skim, half-caf, no-whip, nutmeg-powdered, double-cupped latte’ and left the monster running!
That sounds like an invitation to car theft.
Maybe she was hoping that someone would steal it, and she could collect the insurance money and get something else.
I see now that the news reports also claim the Russian car market is “red hot”. I guess they will be driving further too.
Sad, but perhaps part of the decline is from people losing their jobs or getting wiped out on their underwater mortgages. Simple things like gas would be a luxury.
I know I now think twice, and thrice, before just driving somewhere. I am trying really, really hard to keep from filling up the tank more than once every 10 days.