The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) at Gelsenkirchen University of Applied Sciences has released a report which claims that 2007 will have been the historical high-water mark for diesel sales in Germany. Reported in Auto Motor Und Sport, the study shows a steady climb in diesel market share over the last decade, from 14.6 percent in 1995 to 47.7 percent in 2007. But CAR calculates that market share will retreat to 44 percent by 2010 before diving back to 30 percent by 2020. With US diesel sales still a ways from a predicted 15 percent market share by 2015, Germany is still the major, which is why the projected decline is so significant. The underlying causes are simply related to the shrinking economic incentives for buying diesels. Diesel has traditionally been cheaper than gasoline in Germany, but that difference is slipping away and in America diesel is significantly more expensive. Additionally, diesels require increasingly complex particle filters and exhaust cleaners to meet new emissions standards, driving up purchase costs. Finally, gas engines are simply becoming more efficient, especially as hybrid drivetrains proliferate. In short, if diesel's most favored market is moving away from the stuff, this trend will only grow. With news coming in that VW's new Jetta TDI won't be as efficient as the Prius, don't expect diesel sales to jump stateside anytime soon.
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It’s not a religion. While I liked diesel in its day, when new technologies favor other fuels, so be it. The goal is fuel efficiency, that’s all.
Pollution rules could kill diesel, but then again, they could kill anything.
OTOH, trending out the present diesel price increases will give unreliable results.
diesel hybrids are more efficient than gasoline hybrids
until we have HCCI hybrid engines which trumps both of them…until we have fuel cell engines or perpetual engines (let’s make steam engines from all the hot air from our politicians and D2.8 management).
Good riddence.
Diesels do have their place. BMW do some cracking diesel powertrains, but they price the hell out of them, so any cost saving is lost.
Same with diesel fuel, it’s a whole £1 more expensive than petrol. So any saving is lost.
The Germans won’t let diesels die a death. National pride is at stake (They invented the technology), they’ll do one of 2 things:
1. Re-invent diesel powertrains (i.e a new “bluemotion” system)
or
2. lobby goverments to ease up pollution laws.
I’ve already seen option 2 being applied in Europe. The EU made CO2 (Not NOx, HC or CO) the main cause of car taxes (i.e charge by the amount of CO2 it releases) and guess which fuel emits less CO2…..?
Karl Otto was also German. So they invented the gasoline engine as well.
The problem auto makers will have with pollution controls is that they’ve cried wolf far too many times. They’ve said that every new law would drive the cost way up. Then it didn’t.
Governments have learned to ignore all such protests.
Michael Karesh,
The petrol engine has a much storied history than that (dating back as far as 1206)! Unlike the diesel engine which was solely created by one Rudolf Diesel.
Katie, speaking of losing any cost savings, how about in the states with the diesel bandwagon? A year ago you wouldn’t believe what VW dealers were asking for a TDI jetta over invoice. $2500, plus the cost of the diesel upgrade (another Couple thou) just to get 15% better mileage that now costs 20% more at the pump. Some people are no doubt banging their heads against the wall. Carsense and automax have lots of diesels for sale this week…
There is the little matter of the Diesel motors’ longevity. That counts for a lot with some owners.
I have always wanted a diesel Jeep. I test drove a Liberty CRD once, and wow, was that fun to drive! I already had a Liberty in the family so I passed on it for a Wrangler instead. I was last Fall thinking of a Grand Cherokee CRD, but I’ll have to see what happens with diesel prices and all.
Diesels last a long time but so does a gas/petrol engine if it is cared for.
I think that good turbos like the BMW 3.0 twin turbo are the biggest threat to diesel. Low end torque plus excellent mileage and future development potential.
My 03 Golf TDI is still more cost effective to drive than my wife’s 04 Mazda 3 5-door, but not by much.
I bought mine the weekend before katrina hit, so at least I didn’t pay the silly premiums people did after. Still wish I had flipped it though, and bought a fun car like an s2000.
Biodiesel (from used cooking grease) just takes too much time to make.
KatiePuckrik
The petrol engine has a much storied history than that (dating back as far as 1206)!
1206? Could you please elaborate–with references if possible?
David Holzman,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Jazari
This guy laid the first principles for an engine back then, with a crankshaft and piston pump.
GE Morris:
“Biodiesel (from used cooking grease) just takes too much time to make.”
It depends on the value of your time and how much diesel you use.
Airhen:
“I have always wanted a diesel Jeep. I test drove a Liberty CRD once, and wow, was that fun to drive! I already had a Liberty in the family so I passed on it for a Wrangler instead. I was last Fall thinking of a Grand Cherokee CRD, but I’ll have to see what happens with diesel prices and all.”
The KJ is a much better value than the WK.
You can get a Sport Liberty for $14-16k or a Limited for $18-20k while the relative handful or CRD Grands are still north of $35k.
IMHO You are paying twice the price for 20% more vehicle.
There’s also a simplicity element to diesel engines. Hybrids carry more complex systems which are going to be expensive to maintain, plus the battery packs are both environmentally questionable and expensive to replace. The high compression ratios in diesels mean meatier, heavier structural components, but this manifests in longer life, as already eluded to. Personally, I like the torque response you get with a diesel, although generally I agree the economic argument for diesels is not always favourable.
For me, there’s a strong psychological advantage to getting 50+mpg (imperial) and paying a bit more at the pump and the cost of the vehicle, in order to achieve low cost journeys. Also, I don’t really like going to the filling station, so I like getting 600 miles out of a tank.
This site’s interesting about Diesels, but easy to pick holes in (no references): http://www.peugeotdiesel.com/Diesel_Facts.html
Diesel engines aren’t simpler once you consider all the emissions equipment required to make them remotely acceptable. And battery replacement on mass-market hybrids has not, remotely, been an issue. (FUD).
I’ll believe that diesels are on their way out when heavy duty trucks, farm tractors, commercial fishing boats, earth moving equipment, and European taxicabs quit using them. In these applications it’s strictly economics rather than fashion/fad etc.
Note that most of those engines aren’t subject to emissions control, at least nothing a car owner would recognize as such.
What the Jetta TDI showed this week, in my estimation, is that “clean diesel”, even though it’s barely clean enough to be allowed here (much dirtier than most gas engines), is too clean to be economically competitive.
“Biodiesel (from used cooking grease) just takes too much time to make.”
That depends on the ROI, no? I spend about 3 hours a week to make 35 or so gallons. Most of the process can be automated if you are at all competent in some basic engineering and construction. It does take about 3 weeks for the whole process to work (lots of settling time) so the key is to keep a buffer of stuff in-process all the time. The ROI: my fuel costs three-quarters to two-thirds less than what you pay at the pump. That savings is worth my time.
This whole DIY part of Diesel is what makes it so attractive to me. No other current technology allows a driver to become truly decoupled from the petroleum infrastructure and its crazy market forces. People can diss my fuel, my emissions, and my choices, but I just smile when they bitch about what they pay at the pump. You can’t be truly self-reliant with a Prius. You can with a Diesel.
What chaps me about being a consumer is not having any choices when buying. How many Diesel cars are available to American consumers? Hardly any. Last I checked in fact, it was exactly two.
–chuck
http://chuck.goolsbee.org
Yes, diesel does have it’s place. That place is in trucks where diesel can provide power at an efficiency that gasoline can’t touch. I think one good segment for diesels to take over would be all light trucks 3/4 ton and over. It just makes a lot more sense considering the loads these trucks are intended for.
But in cars it just seems a bit counterproductive. Yes, you get better mpg but the emissions are worse than gasoline. Maybe the carbon output is less but particulates are much worse. You can add extra stuff and tech to to properly scrub the exhaust, but by that time it seems things have moved beyond the practical to “doing it just because you can”.
Maybe it makes sense in Europe but I still don’t see it making sense in the US. Yes, a typical US 4 banger diesel might get 40% better mpg than a gasser, but after you end up paying 25% more for the fuel you’re net savings is only 15%. Then you have to consider extra hassle of finding someone competent to repair it and added maintenance expense. And with the hype there is an increase in the price of diesel cars over gassers, so that eats in to the savings as well.
I would rather buy a hybrid. There is more complexity, but they run cleaner and the maintenance isn’t any worse.