What is it with Friday? Every time I think I've crossed the finish line, the bad news arrives like an uninvited guest. Of course, it's not all about me. It's about an entire industry facing cataclysmic change. Bloomberg reports: "Oil rose $11.33 to an all-time high $139.12 a barrel during trading. Crude oil surged more than $10 a barrel to a record as the dollar weakened after the U.S. unemployment rate grew the most in two decades and Morgan Stanley said prices may reach $150 within a month." As far as GM's concerned, causation don't 't make no never mind. The bottom line: the automaker's stock price ended the day at $16.22, a 33-year low. Automotive News [sub] attempts to put a brave face on it, spinning the loss as part of the larger stock market drop. No matter how you parse it, GM's still a high-cost, cash-burning, truck-heavy manufacturer leaking red ink from every pore of its North American ops, with no escape plan (although its CEO and top brass are well-protected). As this blog from the Wall Street Journal indicates, the Street is waking up to GM's death spiral, and it ain't that pretty at all. "By contrast, GM — which seemed to have covered itself well by selling assets before the buyout markets skidded to a halt last year — could end up with less than $1 billion by 2010, thanks to a combination of cash-draining losses and debt repayments, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings. Even if it tapped bank credit lines, it would by then have less on hand than the $10 billion or so analysts reckon it needs to support its everyday business."
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As Share Goes Bye
Jim Dollinger
Monday, January 2, 2006
You must remember this,
A loss is just a loss.
The pie is still in the sky.
Fundamental marketing does apply,
As share goes bye.
And when Toyota’s up by two,
We only get Daewoo,
On Rick Wagoner we cannot rely.
No matter what the economy brings,
As share goes bye.
Rebates and confusion, way out of date,
Execs full of themselves, ready for their fate,
Buyers want self image, hope it’s not too late,
For it’s that we must supply.
It’s still the same old story,
The flight of sales and glory,
A case of change or die.
The world will always respect a winner,
As share goes bye.
Second Verse:
Now also remember this,
Their ass I will not kiss.
The numbers tell no lie.
Good times no longer apply,
As share goes bye.
And when we drop another two,
The Board will not say boo.
On just who can we rely?
No matter what Bob Lutz sings,
As share goes bye.
Plenty of new products, seen their next update.
Execs shuffled around, really same old slate.
Buyers shopping elsewhere, regardless of the rate.
Competition growing stronger, that we can’t deny.
Its really getting boring,
Toyota and Nissan soaring,
A case of reality defy.
The industry is losing its leader,
As share goes bye.
Best played in S (as in sales) Flat.
Just another nail to the coffin.
Very poor prognosis.
the automaker’s stock price ended the day at $16.22, a 33-year low
On an inflation adjusted basis, the stock is already well below any previous lows except for perhaps in the ‘teens.
Incidentally, a couple of things:
1. How did Ford’s stock fare with the jump in oil prices?
2. How did Toyota, Honda and Nissan fare, too?
I don’t see why GM always gets caned when oil prices jump. They are weaning themselves of gas guzzlers and it’s not, as if, the others are independent of oil and gas guzzlers, too…..
One day changes:
Honda -2.59%, Toyota -3.84%, GM -4.87%, Ford -5.97%
I’ve been looking at this too wanting to jump into Honda when the time seems right. Over the recent longer term, it seems Honda’s greater focus on fuel efficiency is paying off in their stock price vs. even Toyota. Lots of other factors involved too of course.
Of course the problem is that GM has nowhere to run at this point. Although Lutz once said the Cobalt was profitable, we can’t depend on him for facts, and they can’t make much on a $15k or so car that most people would buy as a second choice if not last resort. Even if they sell another Cobalt or five for every loss of a Silverado, that won’t keep the lights on
I’m wondering if the Sisters will pull out of GM, and if we’ll be able to see it in the price. Sisters can be market movers if they get riled.
mel23: “I’ve been looking at this too wanting to jump into Honda when the time seems right.”Seems like kind of a toss-up between Honda and Toyota. While Honda might seem to have the edge with nothing like the big V8 Toyota Tundra, Sequoia, 4Runner, etc., they also don’t have coverage quite as good on the other end of the spectrum, either (Prius, Yaris).
OTOH, the fuel economy mix for the Big 2.8 is simply abysmal by all accounts when the best they can offer for small cars is low-volume, after-thought crap like the Aveo, Cobalt, Focus, and Caliber (and nothing but the vaporware, $48k Volt on the horizon), with an entire flotilla of high-volume, super-sized, big-engined, gas-guzzling monsters on the other.
Simply put, the domestic manufacturers bet the farm on the easy profits of big, full-size SUVs and pickups and now they’re paying the price for such short-sighted thinking.
” … don’t have coverage quite as good on the other end of the spectrum, either (Prius, Yaris).”
I agree Toyota’s Prius is the leader in hybrids, big time, but the Honda Fit kicks the Yaris’ butt already and a Fit redesign is due next year. Hopefully Fit will stay fit and not put on weight like most recent redesigns have.
John Horner: “I agree Toyota’s Prius is the leader in hybrids, big time, but the Honda Fit kicks the Yaris’ butt already and a Fit redesign is due next year. Hopefully Fit will stay fit and not put on weight like most recent redesigns have.”True, but the impending Yaris 5-door could give the Fit some needed competition.
OTOH, the upcoming stand-alone Honda hybrid designed to compete directly with the Prius could even that playing field, as well.
What impending Yaris five door?
You want a Yaris five door, you buy a Scion xD. (The five door exists in Canada because Scion doesn’t.)
Geotpf: “You want a Yaris five door, you buy a Scion xD. (The five door exists in Canada because Scion doesn’t.)”Seems like I read somewhere that the 5-door Vitz was coming to the US soon.
Even if it’s not, considering the current market due to skyrocketing fuel prices, a 5-door Yaris and Scion xD could both exist in the same market and sell quite well.
Good news for the General, the Indians are circling the Humvee this time. But what price are they offering to the General?
U think they can buld them in India and sell to US market again?
With record oil price how else to sell them here.
A fnd’s fnd said that they bought Oil future back in last November. It went from $1,00 to $6.00 now.
Had the General bought some oil contract at least the landng will be much softer.
Glad to see RF and I are now on the same page. It is Peak Oil that will finish off GM not bad management. Rick can always come up with some spin to keep the game going a little longer, but Peak Oil is out of his control.
It is happening and Rick can not spin it to drag out the clock. North American customers are finally waking up to Peak Oil and the even more devastating Export Land Model and dumping gas guzzling pickups and SUVs.
As pointed out in the above posts, GM NA has nothing but mediocre product except for the Toyota-Vibe to sell in the small car segment. The cash flow implications are devastating.