Automotive News [AN] reports that the Wall Street Journal has got a hold of a J.D. Power report on June's sales stats. As you can see above, it ain't pretty. In fact, it's ugly as Hell. If J.D.'s mob are even remotely accurate, the U.S. market is undergoing a contraction violent enough to make a mother of five think twice. "J.D. Power and Associates is predicting the June seasonally adjusted annual sales rate will plunge to 12.5 million vehicles, down from 16.3 million last June. That is far below what other analysts have projected for the month's sales." Especially GM, which predicted (at last count) 14m new vehicle sales for the year. J.D. Power expects Toyota's sales to tank by 6.6 percent. "That would give it a market share of 18.7 percent, near GM's predicted 19.2 percent share." Yes, well, there is no way GM can sustain itself at a 19.2 percent market share of 12.5m vehicles. Chrysler? Again, I reckon their company-wide summer break will be terminal. Meanwhile, the real numbers will be released on Tuesday, and TTAC will be there.
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OUCH
Very appropriate picture.
What will we call this one? Blacker Tuesday?
Black Hole Tuesday.
What is GM selling that they are only off 26% compared to Ford and Chrysler being off 30% plus?
The only thing GM has that could remotely interest me would be the Malibu or Corvette.
Robert, don’t do it while I’m eating breakfast. You owe me a new keyboard.
What will we call the day when next month’s figures are released?
That 0% financing might explain why GM isn’t as bad as the others.
I’m not surprised by Ford’s numbers. They are actually more dependent on (real) truck sales than either GM or Chrysler.
Do we know the other numbers, or is it “beat up on the domestics” day here at TTAC?
GM could also have thrown a bunch of vehicles into fleets – gotta get rid of inventory somehow – ain’t making any money sitting outside of the factory for 3-4 months.
As for who has the best standard cars of the D2.8 – I’d rate Ford first, GM second, Chrysler third. I’m not including luxury or those made for low volume.
Ford (does not include the myriad of rebadges)
– Focus is a decent car but very long in the tooth for a real redesign.
– Fusion is a decent car b/c it’s basically a more Americanized Mazda6.
– Taurus is basically a cheaper version of Volvo S80 and still a decent large car.
– Flex looks like a nice interpretation of the people mover.
GM
Opel rebadged cars are decent Aura / Astra / Malibu
– Aveo is a cheap Korean rebadged small car
– Cobalt and all its versions are basically fleet vehicles
– Really no other standard car worth mentioning.
Chrysler
– Caliber is a cheaply made car
– Avenger or Sebring are cheaply made cars
– 300 or Charger are long in the tooth and gas guzzlers
Of all Chrysler is most dependent upon trucks / SUVs b/c their cars are not competitive and poorly built. GM is still highly dependent on trucks b/c they have little competitive cars. Ford has at least some competitive cars but they relied too heavily on trucks in the past.
we’re leasing trucks to employees under $200/mo. giving zero for 72 and $2000 if you pull ahead your lease. this isn’t selling, it’s gift giving. worse yet, wwe’re spending tens of millions advertising the deals. GM has no clue how to sell cars and it shows clearly.
Do we know the other numbers, or is it “beat up on the domestics” day here at TTAC?
Since when did quoting hard numbers constitute beating up on anyone?
Besides, which ones out of all the automakers are the monthly sales numbers most critical for? If Toyota’s sales tanked 100% in June it wounldn’t be near as devastating for them as -26% for GM or -30% for the other 2.
let’s allagorize!!
Toyota:
Making 30 knotts, on course, engines and all systems ready in all respects. Captain and crew
in total effective control.
GM:
On fire from bow to stern with a list to port of 10 degrees and increasing. One auxillary engine operating. Rudder jammed, ship sailing in large lazy circles. All communications with bridge out.
Crew are starting to bale. One more big hit and it’s Davy Jones’ Locker!
Personally I would be more concerned about SS GM than I would be about SS Toyota.
Well Toyota’s down by 6.6%. You can probably assume that companies with a solid lineup of small cars have roughly the same #s.
The market is shrinking and the Big 2.8 are the ones who are doing most of the downsizing.
Meanwhile the Volt doesn’t even have the battery pack prototype yet…
While sales numbers are interesting and important, profit, that’s when incomes exceeds expenses in case we can’t remember, is more important. I wonder what’s happening to Toyota and Honda profit given the very large drop offs in volume for their more profitable models.
Last I heard Toyota was expecting a 25% reduction in profit… down to 11 billion or so for the year.
If you are “only” making 11 billion dollars a year, you don’t actually have any problems. Hell, at closing price on Friday, you could buy all of Ford for 11 billion. GM is even worse, with a market cap of only 6.54 billion. Since Chrysler is not publicly traded, putting a price on it is hard, although my best guess would be zero.
Wow! -30% They are so screwed.
I used to work for a company that had year over year revenue declines of between 20 and 35%. This went on for the better part of a decade. So much effort was expended trying to right size the company for the executives’ next line in the sand that there was nothing left to use for turning the situation around. It was a depressing place to work. The upper management was openly despised by the employees for their stupidity and their spin control. The high point was joking amongst ourselves about the latest announcements. Black humor was the order of the day, every day. Working for the Big 2.8 must be very similar.
Man, just yesterday I was reading this from Reuters –
“GM is expected to post a drop of more than 15 percent in June sales, with Ford sales seen down as much as 17 percent. Sales at Chrysler are expected to be down nearly 23 percent, according to analyst forecasts.”
These JD numbers are even worse.
I’m sure sales will be down, but that sounds overly pessimistic.
As far as Toyota, I don’t find much of their vehicles very compelling, but they are functional and durable, and in bad economic times, that is what sells.
With gas at $4 and the new CAFE rules, it looks like lame vehicles will be all that will be realistically available in a few years.
Better buy that truck or SUV while you can.
Well Toyota’s down by 6.6%. You can probably assume that companies with a solid lineup of small cars have roughly the same #s.
@toxicroach:
I wouldn’t be surprised if Honda had a bit of an increase. Acura will be down massively again, but the Civic and Accord will carry the brand.
@oboylepr:
Well, since TTAC’s flagship columns are the GM Death Watch, Ford Death Watch and Chrysler Suicide Watch, I shouldn’t be too surprised if the numbers constitute consistent pessimism. I honestly think the Big 2.8, as you guys like to call them (why is Chrysler .8 now? I thought it was .5?), won’t declare bankruptcy. It may be bad now, but at least Ford is starting to get back on the right track. GM will probably get a bailout and a change at the top management (Wagoner will probably get the boot within the next 12 months, IMHO). Chrysler will eventually get their act together soon. No deaths, no suicides. GM has enough lifeboats on their ship, so it won’t be an automotive Titanic, at least…
Lets look at the term bailout. It comes sailors, who would bail out ships swamped by a wave.
The key here being that you bailed out a ship that was otherwise seaworthy but temporarily in danger because of a storm. You don’t bail out the Titanic, because its a waste of time.
The same thing here; this is not a temporary setback or a credit crisis like the last time the govt. bailed out a car company. The problem here has been brewing for decades, and the fact it has lasted this long is only a testament to how strong the Big 3 were before the ship started to sink. The American car companies were not seaworthy before this crisis and now they have run hard aground on very jagged rocks. Bailing ain’t going to save it.
Car sales are falling into the black hole of Peak Oil if the above numbers are correct. They may never return to the old highs again.
This has severe implications for the D2.8 since the falloff is mostly in trucks and SUVs where their sales are concentrated. That is their profit center.
Their few small car offerings are not as profitable nor are they very competitive. Plus a larger volume is needed to make up the lost dollars in truck/SUV sales.
As oil/gas prices continue to rise and many voice opposition to ethanol which could mitigate Peak Oil somewhat, the situation continues to deteriorate big time.
Sorry, but I couldn’t disagree with those here who want to simply ‘watch a sinking ship’.
All of these companies have the tools needed to win. The real question is whether the talent that exists within these will have the opportunity to flourish… given the framework we have within and outside these companies.
Should GM be forced to maintain eight separate divisions? We will need to have changes in the franchise laws in this country if we’re to enable a company like GM to compete.
Should Ford be subjugated by a family junta that has nearly destroyed the company? This is a very complex question that Ford’s shareholders will need to deal with in the not too distant future.
Finally, should Chrysler make a pact with the Chinese to secretly copy every single Mercedes-Benz model and sell it the world over for a fraction of the price? And would this actually represent an improvement given Mercedes’ recent quality record? Daimler is mostly responsible for the R&D starved organization that Chrysler has now become.
If you eliminate GM’s ‘legacy’ issues, Ford’s family entanglement, and give Chrysler the entire cash hoard that Mercedes currently has
(it would only be fair), you would solve a lot of woe.
Of course you would have to move these companies out of Michigan and fork over a tidy sum that would be tied to a variety of organizational goals and projects. Let our foreign debt holders and taxpayers become the new funding sources of their current pension, retirement, and medical plans. Oh, and let’s not forget getting rid of certain managers and assessing the blame game whenever possible. That should be fairly easy given the current state of our government.
All in all, I still think it would be worth far more than the current war in Iraq.
“Chrysler will eventually get their act together soon” – according to WHO? They make nothing the public wants – caliber,junk. pt cruiser, discussed yesterday. 300, sorry bling and excess are so last year. How about the thirstiest pickup the last 10 years, the Ram. A redesigned minivan that takes 2 steps back? No thanks. A $40,000 challenger? Pass. A phony gas card scam? Ditto…The local car rental where I rent for my business when I need an extra truck offers some insight. The manager tells me people request to NOT be given a chrysler product!
GM has problems. Problems of its own making, which it has ignored because it would be too costly to fix when they still had the resources to do so.
Same thing goes for all them. They made their bed, time to lie in it.
The 3 have no new vehicles lined up and fuel prices can only increase. How do they think they are going to reverse those numbers?
Remember that RAV4EV? How about an Electric Escape?
At one time, electric Rangers and S10s could be had..
As fuel prices increase, fuel will become a more and more less attractive source of energy. I think at each dollar amount, it affects a different demographic. I remember people freaking out about $2 gas, but not doing or changing anything about it. Maybe some did at $3, even more so at $4. Expect more and more at each dollar increase.
I charge all my fuel on my debt card and recently went back and added it all up:
`08
Mar: $236.87
Apr: $296.87
May: $394.14
$500, $600, $700?
Honda Insight prices are off the hook and the fact they only ever sold 13,000 of them….
Geo Metro prices are going up…
There really isn’t a third choice as far as mpg goes in the extremes.
Black Hole Tuesday? May I also suggest next month be Back in Black and finally Fade to Black?
Do we know the other numbers, or is it “beat up on the domestics” day here at TTAC?…
My sentiments exactly. No apologies for the bozos at the helm in Detroit, but I am sure the poor economy is having an effect on the foreign brands as well. Posting those numbers would provide a balanced picture. A picture that would no doubt show that the big three are in trouble indeed.
golden2husky:
Normally, we don’t allow discussions of TTAC’s editorial stance or style outside of posts on that topic (which we offer on a regular basis). It is a major distraction that can spread to ALL of our Motown coverage. That said…
The story here is, clearly, the domestics’ horrendous numbers. That’s how both The Wall Street Journal and Automotive News played it. It IS the story. And we did put Toyota’s projected sales drop in the body copy.
If you want to continue this discussion, please do so at robert.farago@thetruthaboutcars.com.
Despite the hatred put on them, the Caliber, Avenger, Sebring and Patriot are bright spots for Chrysler.
Not much else though.
If things keep going the way they are, Honda will be king of the hill.
seabrjim- The Ram doesn’t get any worse mileage than all the other full size trucks and compared to 10-15 years ago mileage is up slightly while power is almost doubled.
Consider this too (sorry if anyone has already covered this, no time to check).
Last June/July GM sales saw a sharp double digit decline (their worst last year I think). Ergo, this makes the year-over numbers look better than they should.
Bunter
July 1st will probably be known as “None more black” Tuesday. Perhaps Nigel Tufnel can even announce it.
If there’s a “best post of the day” award, brettc deserves it.
ram trucks are worse with fuel. Whatever you think of consumer reports testing, its hard to dispute mileage over the same test loop. Overall city highway: f-150 14 mpg silverado 1500 14 mpg ram 1500 11 mpg. Thats pretty bad. Even if they tie for arguments sake, how does caliber compare to mazda 3, civic? Ever rented a caliber? it will be the first and last time, I guarentee it. Chrysler minivan to odyssey? Sebring to …that piece of junk has no comparison.My first mopar was a 68 roadrunner. I would love to see chrysler corp survive, I really would but I wont drink the kool aid. They build junk and are going to die because of it. The lowest possible price for supplies = the lowest quality car. Drive by your local dealer and sit in a caliber or pt cruiser, or a sebring. My sons legos are of a higher quality plastic. How many companies have issued an interior redo order on a one year old model? I guess the sebring will be the future answer to a trivia question.