By on June 9, 2008

uplander.jpgThe AP reports that U.S. minivan sales are down a pickup-truck like 20 percent so far this year, against an overall light vehicle market drop of eight percent. Ford has already given up on minivans; they scuttled the Freestar in 2006. GM is nearly done as well; deep-sixing the Ten Worst-winning Chevy Uplander. Some would-be minivan buyers are moving to "crossovers" and others are downsizing more radically. Some market watchers see a minivan renaissance ahead, as Generation Y starts sharing both X and Y chromosomes and Baby Boomers look to minivans to transport their grandchildren (huh?). Global Insight predicts U.S. minivan sales will settle in at around 650,000 through 2012, when they could jump back up to 700k as the market improves. Maybe. Global ignores the fickle nature of fashion-oriented buyers; there's a solid history of generational antipathy, as car buyers reject their parents' vehicles. Still, seven-passenger SUVs, mpg and gas prices… 

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30 Comments on “May Mauls Moribund Minivan Market...”


  • avatar
    OldandSlow

    In addition to high sticker prices, this segment has gained weight with each succeeding generation. The only mini-van sold in the US that gets fair to middling mpg figures around town is the the Mazda 5.

  • avatar
    Richard Chen

    My pet peeve with using the Mazda5 as a hauler is rear visibility: due to the raised 3rd row and use of big booster & child car seats, the porthole out the back is just that.

    The original DCX vans were slightly wider than a Mazda5, with less tumblehome; their weight was around 3000lbs but without all the structural reinforcement and standard equipment that pushes the Mazda up to 3400lbs. Mazda sells 5’s in other markets with diesels and smaller gas engines, but no word yet if anything else will replace the 2.3 (22/28MT, 21/27AT), and the 2.5 gets slightly worse mileage in the upcoming 09 Mazda6.

    The van I think would sell like hotcakes if it could be brought in for a $30k-ish price would be the Toyota Estima Hybrid, which uses a variant of the 2.4 4cyl HSD from the Camry (as opposed to the Highlander/RX hybrid 3.3 V6) and is a little bit narrower and shorter than a Sienna. It weighs 4000lbs, a few hundred more than the Camry Hybrid which gets EPA 34-ish.

  • avatar
    TaurusGT500

    ….there’s an old saying that advises that, “the last iceman always makes money”.

    As the OE’s race to get out of cratering segments (as fast as they raced to get in), the last minivan standing might have a decent little cash cow in a few years.

  • avatar
    guyincognito

    Ford’s last minivan was the Freestar. It was completely re-designed from the ground up to have the exact same look, performance, and dimensions but more cost to Ford than the Windstar it replaced.

    The problem with minivans re: fuel economy is that they have an inherently un-aerodynamic shape, ie tall with an abrupt transition to a flat back. Big crossovers, Flex cough, will likely not offer any improvement in this arena, though.

  • avatar
    ash78

    Well, the Windstar and the Uplander trio were pretty bad vehicles on all counts. I don’t see any lack of Japanese minivans where I live, but that doesn’t tell the whole sales story.

    I would also love to see the Mazda5 with a few tweaks and upgrades (notably either the diesel and/or turbo versions) and keep it under $25k with decent equipment. They’re really onto something with that layout–the “I usually carry four, but I sometimes need six” flexibility.

  • avatar
    ton12

    Toyota and Honda are having no problems selling vans. Yes, the overall demand might be going down, but the best options are remaining while the worse go away.
    GM and Ford never really made competitive minivans when looking at the OVER-ALL package of what a minivan buyer wants – Fuel economy (Windstar, Aerostar never good here) Safety – (most US brands always had bad roll-over ratings compared to Asian brands, also late to develop good crash test ratings) size (recent GM offerings on the small side).
    Its now possible to fit eight people in cross-overs (considered a minivan replacement), but the one minivan feature that toddler-carrying parents need is sliding doors. Nothing out there comes close to ease of use to a minivan when lifting kids in and out of cars. Another feature where the Mazda 5 has an edge over cross-overs.

  • avatar

    guyincognito :

    Ford’s last minivan was the Freestar. It was completely re-designed from the ground up to have the exact same look, performance, and dimensions but more cost to Ford than the Windstar it replaced.

    My bad. Text amended.

  • avatar
    italianstallion

    Good news!! Maybe we’ll finally see some of the right-sized mini-vans/MPVs on these shores as people move away from their giant school buses – things like the Honda Freed, Toyota Corolla Verso, Ford C-max, etc.

    Just as there are/were plenty of idiots who eschewed more sensible but “uncool” minivans for giant SUVs, there are (hopefully) many rational people who appreciate the utility and versatility of small vans. the problem is that there have been too few options to choose from.

  • avatar

    Sorry to beat the old Odyssey drum again, but damn if its not my favorite vehicle of all time! (only 40% hyperbole there)

    While it only gets 23mpg during my wife’s MassPike (metro Boston) commute, that turns into 26-27 mpg on long hauls with the family (cruise control, 65-70 mph)….and ALL of our shyte. But my favorite attribute is easily the ride quality and comfort. The long wheelbase gives the van an S-class feel to it….very smooth and confident, sucking up every bump and pothole in its path, maneuverable and very quite, even at speed.

    The Sienna we rented in South Florida was an adequate performer as well. It mostly had the same features as the Odyssey, held ALL of our shyte, but the driving dynamic wasn’t even close. If felt like a tall Corolla (videogame steering feel, small wheels, tons of road noise) to the Odyssey’s tall TL.

    The idea of a 70% Odyssey is brilliant, for those who want to only take 70% of their shyte with them. Or keep it 100%, squeeze out a few hundred pounds, throw in a small diesel, and bam! 35mpg!

  • avatar
    NickR

    The problem here is the bloating of minivans. The Kia Rondo is more akin to the original minivan than the not-so-minivans offered by the big 2.8 now. The dark horse, maybe, is the Dodge Journey, which is mini-van-ish and manages to turn the sow’s ear of the Sebring platform into a, um, cotton purse. That assumes Chrysler is around.

  • avatar

    These really are great vehicles, when you need the room. I’m not quite sure how everyone became convinced that a mini-van was “uncool” while a vehicle as homely as an Explobition or Yukohoe was attractive. One might argue for “functional”, but as a people-hauler, which is the reason most folks seemed to really buy the big SUV, a mini-van is a much more decent ride.

  • avatar

    I’m still waiting for a good looking minivan. The Odyssey comes closest, IMO, (and is the best driver of the lot), but lacks AWD, which was a deal-killer for me.

    I was an image snob and refused to consider one in my late 20s/early 30s, but I’ve embraced our Sienna Limited AWD as a very comfy mode of transportation for our family. It helps that it’s basically a luxury car inside, with nav, leather, sunroof, wood steering wheel, HIDs, laser cruise, etc.

    A stupid woman ran into it last weekend, and I miss it every time I fire up the rental Grand Caravan SXT.

    I could see the segment coming back someday, because at the end of the day, they are much easier to use with small kids than an SUV or crossover. A Sienna has more cargo space, legroom, and headroom in all rows than a Suburban does. You can’t beat every door opening by the remote (except the fronts, of course) either.

  • avatar
    carguy

    People are looking for right-sized transporation that will haul their stuff and still get good MPGs. Call them compact minivans or wagonized hatchbacks, but I think you will see a lot more of them.

    Now if only Scion could bring back the original xB.

  • avatar
    gfen

    I actually really like our Mazda5. Contrary to my original opinions, it actually drives really nicely.. I almost think it owuld be better if they just killed the 3rd row seating and put a little more room in the second row. Also, I’d absolutely thrill to a MazdaSpeed5 with the turbo or a hybrid version. Europe can keep the diesel, though. The city advantage over a gasser is barely there, and I don’t need diesel-exhaust causing any potential respitory or brain issues in the tykes we haul in our 5.

    The only place the 5 depresses me is when I see it from the outside where it proudly declares its Minivan lineage, inside, though, its a vastly different animal.

  • avatar
    taxman100

    Chrysler dropped the SWB Caravan and Voyager at exactly the wrong time. The sliding doors are nonnegotiable – I don’t want my little ones slamming car doors into my classic 67 Ford parked in the garage as well.

    I’d like to get a basic swb minivan for around-town use with the family. The Mazda 5 is too narrow, and weird looking. I don’t really need a 3rd row, but two rows with seating for 2 adults and 3 children in booster or baby seats would be perfect.

    Our only choice right now is now to buy used.

  • avatar
    Rday

    Now if only Scion could bring back the original xB. Well the Cube will be out next year and that looks promising.

    There are many mazda 5 like vehicles in asia. I rode in a few of them and they were quite impressive. I think it is just a matter of time until they come here. PRobably another area where Detroit will have been sleeping. Well Ford has a small van in europe that may fit the bill.

  • avatar
    psarhjinian

    The problem is that, up until recently, the runt minivans never sold well. The first-gen Odyssey, previous Mazda MPV and short-wheelbase Chryslers were always derided by the press and media as “not large enough”, “cramped” or “bottom-of-class interior space”.

    When every aspect of minivan marketing has pushed size, year over year, it’s very hard to sell the virtues of smaller size because you’re fighting not just your competitor’s marketing, but the groupthink that’s percolated through every reviewer, dealer and consumer over the past, what, 25 years? This applies to every vehicle that has been deliberately undersized (Mazda6, Ranger, 1st & 2nd-gen RAV4), and it’s still the case as vehicles like the Mazda6 are still growing dramatically with each iteration.

    Heck, it applies to _anything_ sold in North America. No one wants to buy the smallest size of anything, even if it happens to be better. I’m not at all sure how marketers are going to manage this kind of paradigm shift, but whomever pulls it off successfully is going to be heralded as a genius.

  • avatar
    John Horner

    “The dark horse, maybe, is the Dodge Journey”

    No sliding doors = not a minivan.

  • avatar
    shaker

    A freshened Mazda 5 with a somewhat more capable and efficient powertrain would be “the bees knees” right around now.

  • avatar
    Strippo

    I actually really like our Mazda5.

    Sales of the Mazda5 are up 46.4% through May. They’ve still only sold 10.5K of them here this year and I’m sure Mazda would rather be moving more CX-9s, but it’s better than having no 4-cylinder people mover at all.

  • avatar
    Theodore

    I spent some time riding in a Mazda MPV recently. It had plenty of room for three adults and three small children, although when the kids get bigger they’ll probably move up to a larger van. Still, that size van is a good fit for a young family, and when I have kids I’ll probably be in the market for something similar.

  • avatar
    Robert Schwartz

    The Mazda 5 is too low and and too narrow. The original Plymouth/Dodge was the right size for most uses, albeit way cramped when we loaded the kids and the stuff for a long trip to the beach (we could have bought one of those roof things, that would have helped). The first gen odyssey was also nicely sized. I think longer and narrower than the Chrysler. BTW, I think it is still being sold in OZ.

    The motor on that Chrysler was a real weak spot. We killed it on those beach trips. It died after 75,000 mi. A diesel would have been great, and would hve taken the abuse.

    Minivans, like a lot of other cars got way to big and way to heavy, but they are still a great idea with a lot of utility for families and businesses. I can only hope that we some resized minivans in tyhe next few years.

  • avatar
    Richard Chen

    @psarhjinian: I just got my quarterly copy of Zoom Zoom magazine for Mazda owners, and the short blurb on the upcoming 2009 Mazda6 claims more interior room than Camry or Accord. Gulp.

    @Robert Schwartz; Yes, the original Honda Odyssey, 4cyl engine, 60″ tall with swing-out doors, is alive & well in Japan and Asian markets.

  • avatar
    Paul Niedermeyer

    guyincognito :

    Ford’s last minivan was the Freestar. It was completely re-designed from the ground up to have the exact same look, performance, and dimensions but more cost to Ford than the Windstar it replaced.

    RF: My bad. Text amended.

    I don’t know what the original text said, but guyincognito is not correct. The Freestar WAS the Windstar with a few changes to improve safety, etc. But the basic vehicle was very much the same.

    Nonbody builds a “completely re-designed from the ground up to have the same look, performance and dimensions” vehicle, especially when it was such a dog as the Windstar. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…

  • avatar
    gfen

    “Well Ford has a small van in europe that may fit the bill.”

    The Ford C-Max? Yeah, in America, they call that the Mazda5. ;) I know the C-Max has regular rear doors instead of sliders, and I think it does forgo the 3rd row and has a 2nd row bench instead of capt’s chairs. After owning them, I find sliding doors to be indispensible for loading kiddies into seats.

  • avatar
    guyincognito

    @ Paul Niedermeyer:

    I may be exaggerating the extent to which the Windstar was re-designed to become the Freestar, but it was not as superficial or cheap as you may believe. Yes, someone would dump all that money into that dog, it was Bill Ford.

    RF was merely changing the name from Windstar to Freestar based on my comment.

  • avatar
    Theodore

    I don’t understand all the flak the Windstar is catching. Maybe my family just got lucky, but we bought a new ’96 Windstar as a year-old leftover. It’s been used and abused beyond 200,000 miles by now and the only major repair has been to the air suspension in the rear. It’s not going to win any prizes in the fun-to-drive category, but it’s been all over two countries in all kinds of weather without giving any trouble – a worthy successor to the station wagons it replaced as the family hauler.

  • avatar
    eggsalad

    My last minivan was a ’92 Plymouth Voyager. Four cylinder, 5-speed stick. Got around 22mpg in town, close to 30 on the highway.

    Bring those back, and I’m first in line.

  • avatar
    jjdaddyo

    I think the cratering of minvan sales has less to do with gas prices/mileage than with the economic niche that minivan drivers inhabit.
    If you have a minivan, you usually have kids and all the expenses that go with them. If this is the case, you are being squeezed everywhere. Interest rates up, food costs up, everything else that contains oil going up (anything with plastic, for instance), and the overall US employment picture looking gloomy, and don’t even get me started on health care costs for a family.
    The auto companies have made a lot of hay in the last ten years from people buying new cars on a 2-3-4 year (or less) cycle. If people decide that getting a new car every 5-6-7 years is good enough (with all the other bills they have to pay), then car makers are in for a DECADE of pain.

  • avatar
    storminvormin

    It’s always been interesting to me how many grandparents eschew a more efficient car for a minivan to haul gradkids that they see once or twice a month. Maybe my attitude will change when I become a grandpa but as it stands my thoughts are “We’re a free babysitting service. Drive your own damn kids everywhere”. Maybe they’re just easier to get in and out of.

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