Earlier this year, GM Car Czar Bob Lutz announced that his employer was [theoretically] set to build about 10k plug-in electric – gas hybrid Volts in the car's first year of production, "so we can deal with any issues before we really crank up for high volumes." In an email to the Detroit Free Press, GM's Chairman of Vice confirmed the initial 10k run in 2011, and then set a number for 2012: 60k units. Considering that GM is what's commonly called a "volume automaker," and the fact that Toyota has sold 79,765 Priora so far this year, that seems like mighty small beer. Which just got smaller. Maximum Bob admitted that the production stats are "notional targets." GM may offer even less Voltage in the model's first year "to ensure that all vehicles built are safe and high quality." Oh yeah, and "the actual number [built in the first two years] is highly dependent on electrical component supplier capability and battery experience." So there you have it. GM will produce 10k Volts in the first year. Or not. And produce 60k Volts in the second year. Or not. But they definitely will produce Volts. Or not.
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Does the concept car count? That is 1 so if they produce that in 2010 then they succeeded. 1 > 0 and they have no other hard commitments. Brilliant!
He also, reportedly, said, “at $40K, demand is still high.”
I would guess you’d have to be high to demand a $40K Chevy.
It seems GM can’t produce the car at a profitable unit cost. Low volume is the answer… 10K units is probably low enough volume to save GM the embarassment of having these things gather dust on Chevy lots.
Maximum Bob didn’t really add anything new. GM’s VP or whatever of something Henderson sketched this out at the beginning of June; low production runs while they work on reducing the unit cost.
The question in 2010 will probably be, “What major automakers will NOT get their PHEV/RE-EV to market, in significant volume, ahead of the Volt?” The answer is likely to be “Chrysler and Ford.” To GM’s sorrow.
Maybe it’s because I didn’t get a MBA but sellinga car for twice the competition with belated questionable technology and no reliability basis does not seem like a good idea.
They might be planning to build 10K but will they sell?They brought 8K GTOs into the US and most were sold the next year when they littered lots.
I really wish GM had played it’s cards closer to it’s chest. It could have stuck with vague targets and fetching spy-shots, which would have had the same effect (chilling Prius sales today) rather than blabbering details constantly.
The thing is, GM has no restraint. If they have something even remotely attractive, they’ll shill the hell out of it just to stay in the public eye. It’s a marketing tactic left over from print-media days, where you couldn’t effectively “reach” your customers as easily. Today, pulling the same trick just fatigues your customer base and increases skepticism.
Of course, GM Marketing’s being stuck in the sixties is one of the biggest reason they’re behind the eight-ball right now.
KixStart :
He also, reportedly, said, “at $40K, demand is still high.”
I would guess you’d have to be high to demand a $40K Chevy.
Plenty of people pay over $40K for Chevrolets. Think Corvette. And Tahoe. And Suburban. And Silverado HDs.
Happens all the time…
I really wish GM had played it’s cards closer to it’s chest. It could have stuck with vague targets and fetching spy-shots, which would have had the same effect (chilling Prius sales today) rather than blabbering details constantly.
So a TV ad featuring nothing but a dog licking some dude’s toes while chatting about how great their vaporware cars are gonna be isn’t vague enough?
yank,
Not even close; I’d be happy with a shadowed profile shot and “Coming 2010” text. I know what GM is trying to do–deter people from signing Prius leases–but it’s not working, and it’s diminishing the Volt’s impact when it finally does arrive.
The Camaro has the same problem. We know everything there is to know about the car, we’ve seen it a few zillion times and we’re not excited anymore. The Volt’s worse because what we are learning isn’t happy.
I think it’s telling that we know less about the Toyota-friggin-Venza.
GS650G, GM can probably sell 10K in 2011. There are almost certainly 10,000 Volt fanatics out there that want an American EV. After that…
There’s some pent-up demand for Practical EVs. The Volt isn’t a particularly bad idea and the idea of going 40 miles gas-free will certainly appeal to some people, even at a very premium price. Throw some SPV on your roof and you’re OPEC and CO2-free – that will be worth $$ to some. Look at the current Rav4-EV owners, many of whom do have SPV to “fuel” their Rav4-EVs; ’01 Rav4-EVs go for perhaps $60K on eBay. But, right now, that’s $60K for quantities in, at most, the tens. Only the most eager buyers are buying at that price and everyone else is off the field.
However, after those with a strong preference are skimmed off (and we can’t say quite how big that number might be), the Volt has to start to compete on the merits.
Against a base Prius, the Volt is uneconomic at almost any price of fuel that doesn’t involve economic collapse. Still, for a price, there will still be some preference to be gas-free.
But a 20-mile EV-range Prius (and I’m using “Prius” for convenience, Honda will show up with a hybrid vehicle in ’09 and so may others) that’s significantly cheaper than a Volt actually takes a fair amount of business away from the Volt. Even if it’s not proportionately less expensive. Let’s say a zero-mile EV Prius is $22K. A 40 mile EV Volt is $40K. You’d think that a 20 mile EV Prius would have to hit $31K to sell but this isn’t the case, it could actually go for somewhat more. I’d bet Toyota delivers 20 miles EV for under $30K, regardless, but let’s continue this train of thought. Let’s say a 20 mile EV Prius is $33K.
The Volt’s economic and preferential sweet spot is at 40 miles daily driving. Economically, that’s where you get the least bleeding. Preferentially, that’s where the psychological impact of being oil-free is maximized. But although 40 miles is the median commute (or average or whatever), 20 miles EV is good enough for some (I only need 10 and I can probably get some charge at work, so I can actually do with less). Why spend a lot more money for a 40 mile EV Volt if you only routinely drive 20 miles or less?
For daily driving of 21 miles, shifting up to a 40 mile EV Volt is a big committment to go gas free for an additional 365 miles per year. I’d say many of these people will go with the less expensive 20-mile vehicle, rather than spend an incremental $7,000 for an extra mile of range.
Notice this is daily driving… benefit is maximized at 40 miles 365 days/year, not just the 240 or so workdays. People that can do math are going to notice this. People who don’t drive on the weekend or who drive radically further on the weekend are going to find the Volt less economically attractive.
So, in 2012 it all depends on the competition. If there’s no RE-EV or PHEV competition with decent range, the Volt will certainly sell 60K copies if GM can bring the price down a little. If the base ’09 Prius is really good and can go a very few miles on EV and there’s an upgrade available to do 20 miles EV and the Honda vehicle is good, GM’s going to find it extremely difficult to sell any significant number of Volts unless they are competitively priced (within 5-10%) or gas prices are so high that people will buy anything that promises relief (which is why Aveos and Cobalts are selling at present).
Buick61, Those are highly capable Chevys. Who pays $40K for a commuter car? And, come to think of it, a few of those on your list are less and less likely to command a $40K transaction price.
Slide the roll out by two years, cut the numbers in half, and possibly change the name to “Toyota’s GM Division”, and maybe that’ll be about right. Anyway another object lesson in just how achingly slow the emergence of any alt-fuel technology will be.
Sounds like reality is a “notional target” for Batty Bob.
If you don’t think the Volt is way overhyped already, just remember that by 2010 they mean LATE 2010. It’s only mid-2008 now, which means we get to hear about the Volt for two more years before they even produce the first one!
At least they years of over-promotion of the new Camaro are finally over and I can now buy one. Oh wait…