We regret to inform you it is now a felony to shove a metermaid or interrupt the issuance of a parking ticket in the once-great state of New York. TheNewspaper.com reports that the New York state legislature has extended a special protection to metermaids that was once reserved for police, firefighters and paramedics. Under the new law, physical contact for which a meter maid can claim an injury is now a Class D felony, for which you could be sent to the big house for up to seven years. "No one likes to get a ticket," says Assemblyman J. Gary Pretlow, "but the contempt some persons have for the job of the TEA (Traffic Enforcement Agent. Aw) or New York City marshal does not warrant the violent confrontational approach they have taken." Pretlow was likely referring to a well-publicized incident this May in which a metermaid TEA was beaten by an off-duty police officer to the applause of onlookers. Which would lead you to believe that metermaids have it pretty rough out there, and indeed the NYPD says some sixty TEA assaults were reported last year. Of course, that is in a city which had a total 27,295 reported aggravated assaults in the same year. You'd actually expect that aggrieved dude-on-metermaid violence would make up a much higher percent of those statistics.
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Forbes is reporting that Chrysler and notorious industry-alliance slut Fiat are discussing terms of an agreement that could bring Fiat products back to America. Chrysler could lease North American production capacity and share retail space with the Italian automaker say enigmatic "people briefed on the talks." But Chrysler isn't in this just to have another competitor hocking its wares next door, luring the crowds away from Sebrings and Journeys. No, the Auburn Hills crowd has a cunning plan, and it involves Fiat's other, other squeeze: Tata Motors. Chrysler thinks the Wrangler would do well in India and other Asian markets, and talks with Tata are already underway. Since Fiat and Tata are becoming increasingly joined at the hip, Chrysler seems to be imagining a global triumvirate of second-tier automakers. Oh yes, and as one (again with the anonymity) investment banker puts it " "You could definitely see this evolve into something. It would make sense for Tata to buy Jeep if this partnership went through … and Chrysler could really do with selling a brand and getting some cash." So Fiat gets US market access, Chrysler gets a buyer for Jeep (and sweet, sweet cash), and Tata gets an armor-ready platform (Wrangler J8) to sell to the Indian military. Meanwhile Fiat has, quite by coincidence, agreed to finance all of Tata's Jaguar and Land Rover sales in Europe. This is starting to get kinky.
The day before I left in my jet for an exercise in Goldsboro, North Carolina on the 18th of this month, I filled my ancient Audi Quattro's 25 gallon tank to the tune of $98, with gas on-base hovering around $3.94. I then staggered into the station to get Swedish Fish and Tequila to drown my sorrows, as a 25 year-old Audi with AWD only gets 25mpg at best. Upon landing yesterday, the 30th, I drove past the pumps, and saw prices are now $3.34, a drop of $0.60 in 15 days. I would have only saved about $13 or so, but that buys at least three overpriced coffees at Starbucks. Are the plummeting gas prices in the most oil-cheap of states a portent of things to come? I believe so, as my father, an engineer for Occidental Petroleum in Texas has started analyzing all oil wells that cost more than $100 per barrel to extract the dino-juice from the Earth. Oxy is starting to prepare for a crash, as are the other oil companies (per rumor). The rumors flying around the offices in Midland, Texas are saying middle of 2009 to early 2010. Regardless of whether an oil crash occurs, who ever predicts the crash, or the rise in prices will surely make a lot of money.
When the new energy bill mandating higher CAFE ratings came out last December, it didn't offer automakers any kind of financial assistance to meet those goals. Since then, we've been treated to a parade of industry types wailing that with times so bleak, CAFE will kill Detroit unless the government bribes assists the domestics with following the law developing more efficient cars. Perhaps sensing John McCain's weakness with the industry, Senate Democrats are rushing to position their party to take advantage of the now free-floating "bailout vote." The Detroit News reports that Democrat leadership has agreed to support $6b in loan guarantees to domestic automakers, and is considering a further industry stimulus for plant retooling. All told, the package will total some $25b in loan guarantees that would cost taxpayers $3.75b. Tellingly, $300m of the initial $6b is earmarked for advanced battery development. If that sounds familiar, that's because it's a pretty handy preemption of John McCain's "Project Lexington." And since McCain seems happy to stick to his Nancy Reagan (just say no!) on bailouts, Obama and the Dems are going to go after the weird industry-worker alliance that wants bailout. It's populist, it's patriotic, and (post-Bear, Fannie and Freddie) it's principled. Best of all, it only costs the taxpayers a few billion. Game on!
Despite the fact that SUV are PC pariahs in The Land of Hope and Glory, despite the fact that unleaded costs $8.74 per gallon, SUV sales are up 11 percent on the year. Londoners are buying up SUVs faster than any other municipality. As London's roads haven't reverted to potholes and cobblestones, there must be some other way to logically explain this trend-defying headline. Are the expat Russian billionaires beefing-up their security entourages? Are conservatives celebrating the demise of Ken Livingstone and his $50/day C-charge plan? Is Clarkson on a Landie kick? Why is Old Blighty leading the Charge of the Light Truck Brigade while we here In The Land of the Free run for our Priora at first sign of $4 gas? Whatever the reason keep in mind that Britons consider things like the Daihatsu Terios an "SUV"– even though it sports a 1.5-liter engine and gets a combined 35mpg. Um, not that there's anything wrong with that…
I've been exceptionally busy on the flame-suppression front. This week, I've removed dozens of offensive comments, and permanently banned more than a few unruly malcontents. I'm not surprised. It's a painful time for anyone who had faith in the domestic automakers. The bad news coming from Detroit is coming fast and it makes them furious. At us. But a lot of the boneless chickens we've identified here over the last four years– giving credit to anyone with a pulse, bad branding, lousy product decisions, and on and on– are coming home to roost. Truth to tell, it's a good time for TTAC. Our visitor numbers are up. Nothing rad. Just the same organic growth. Which is fine by me. It means we're building a solid base of readers who "get it." And to this group I promise more solid journalistic work like Samir Syed's excellent interview with CAW leader Buzz Hargrove. We're limited by finances, but wherever we can, we will break news. Meanwhile, we, like you, watch the scene with an increasing sense of foreboding. Through it all, we'll be here, telling the truth about cars.
[New podcast inserted. Thanks for your patience.]
Once a car salesman "data captures" you, the calls never stop. Some are rude. Some are sweet. All are pushy. The salesman's goal: get the sale. Meet the quota (placate the Alpha Dog). Pay the bills (placate the Ex). In America's cratered new car market, the chances of a car salesman making his nut are only slightly less than that of the squirrel in Ice Age. Has this stopped dealers from getting up to their old tricks? Hell no. If anything, they're abusing their customers MORE. Still, if you know how to handle the heat, this is The Mother of All Buyer's Markets. Here's how to work the system…
We've just heard from our sources that GMAC is about to announce that it will no longer offer lease deals on the Yukon, Yukon XL, Suburban, Tahoe, all full-size trucks, Envoys and TrailBlazers as of tomorrow. The General's captive finance arm will also raise the "money factor" (the leasing rate) on Cadillacs by two percent. Needless to say, this will be an enormous blow to GM's sales. We're told that GM has called a meeting of all mid-western dealers at the Rock Financial Showcase for the same day, [presumably] so that marketing maven Mark LaNeve can announce the incentive deals that will replace leasing. We also hear that GM is about suspend employee pricing on most car lines, such as the Chevy Cobalt, in order to make money where they can. We'll have more info as we get it. [hat tip to you-know-who-you-are]
Why would anyone gloat about The Great American SUV's spectacular fall from grace? Why wouldn't they? As for San Francisco Chronicler Mark Morford's gleeful epitaph, the main question here is, "Dude! What took you so long?" Whatever your take on the topic, you gotta admit MM dances on the SUV's grave with pugnacious panache. "Who didn't note the beginning of the end when, five years ago, the world's worst consumer vehicle ever took its place as the poster child for all that went wrong with the condescending American ethos, the oil-sucking war-drunk Bush-mauled mind-set? Ah, the Hummer H2. Has any consumer product embodied our misguided arrogance better? The ridiculous scale, the horrible handling, the contemptible road manners, the false machismo, the Cro-Magnon design, the ability to traverse 60-degree rockslides in a hurricane even though all you ever really needed to do was run over those little concrete bumps in the Wal-Mart parking lot. Dude! Righteous!" And here's the really scary part: Detroit Free Press' Matt Helms' po-faced, mea culpa response. Has Motown's mauling put it into a terminal funk?
GM ALWAYS releases the really bad news on a Friday.The two-day interregnum gives Wall Street's money men a chance to get distracted by booze, babes and baubles. More SOP: auto analysts predictions of GM's losses are usually too high. (You might suggest an intentional disinformation campaign, but I couldn't possibly comment.) This time out, Bloomberg makes a pretty good case for, uh, what are we going to call THIS one? Holy Black Hole Friday? Anyway… "Collapsing values of leased sport-utility vehicles may force General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner to announce $2.3 billion in losses tomorrow on top of more than $1.4 billion that analysts have forecast." Uh-oh, here comes that damn "headwind" analogy again… "This is clearly one more headwind they have to fight,'' Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson opined. "If they end leasing, it could end up being a 5 to 10 percent headwind to sales.'' To paraphrase Police Chief Martin Brody, "You're going to need a smaller, faster and more seaworthy boat." [Triskadecaphobes note: Bloomie's survey of 13 auto analysts reckons GM will report a loss of $2.41 a share.]
At one point, GMAC was the tail that wagged the dog. The captive finance company dumped billions in profit into GM's corporate coffers. As the American automaker's decline gathered pace, GM CEO Rick Wagoner sold 51 percent of GMAC to Cerberus (current owners of Chrysler). The finance company immediately hit the rocks. Today, the gash in the hull widened. GMAC reported a net loss of $2.48b. In the second quarter. "A soft economic environment and continued volatility in the mortgage and credit markets have significantly affected results," GMAC Chief Executive Alvaro de Molina told Reuters. "Higher fuel prices and weaker consumer credit prove to be headwinds." That's a bit like calling a tornado a light breeze. We repeat: GMAC's NA leasing is heading for termination. The results included a $716m write-down of vehicle leases. And… "GMAC said it ended June with about $18 billion of SUV and truck leases in those countries on its books, out of a total $32.8 billion of leases." Expect GM to have to write-off at least three billion of lost residual values on those leases [blog coming] when it reports its financial results on, of course, Friday. Oh and ResCap, GMAC's mortgage arm, lost $1.86b in its seventh straight unprofitable quarter. If ResCap fails, it's all over bar the filing. Whether GM would be dragged under is an open question. Dark days.
Much to GM Car Czar Bob Lutz' chagrin, hybrids are a bit more than the flash in the pan he predicted . A study from RCNOS titled "Global Hybrid Car Market Forecast to 2010" (reported by Research and Markets) predicts global hybrid sales will experience a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12 percent in the next six to seven years. They also prognosticate that the hybrid battery market will grow by 10.4 percent between 2010 and 2015. From 2008 – 2012, the hybrid component market will increase at a CAGR of 17.4 percent. The U.S. is the top market for gas – electric vehicles. RCNS says American hybrid sales should crest the 1m mark by 2012. At the moment, there are only a few major (i.e. remotely credible) players in the hybrid game. But with the Koreans and the Chinese busily developing their own hybrids, the playing field could become crowded in a hurry. And since competition drives prices down, the consumer will be the overall winner. Not to mention air quality and CO2 emissions.
Spy shots of what could credibly be a new Toyota Prius have finally surfaced. The next-generation of "America's Car" looks bigger than the previous iteration, but that's about it in terms of differences. The new Prius sports styling that is nearly identical to the outgoing model, with only a tightened greenhouse to spoil the rear vision freshen up the looks. Of course it will be more powerful and more efficient (according to Toyota). The spy photographers who sent these shots in to Nextautos speculate that the larger dimensions mean wagon and convertible versions could be forthcoming. Though these possibilities would be good news for ToMoCo's ambitions to build the Prius brand, they'll be sure to have their hands full just supplying demand for the standard version. Although, with Honda's unnamed Prius-fighting sedan in the offing, Toyota might want to differentiate the Prius from its blatant knockoffs.
Oil prices go up. Gas prices go up. American consumers switch en masse to the kind of vehicles promoted by CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) regs since 1975. They also help reduce American oil imports (and pollution) by driving 3.7 percent less over the first five months of '08. The reduced demand lowers the price of gas (OK, in theory). Everyone happy? Of course not. The same feds who want us to reduce our dependence on foreign oil are hit with a drop in federal gas tax revenue (currently 18 cents a gallon). And so the "acting head" of the Federal Highways Agency declares [via The Detroit News] that "without a doubt, our federal approach to transportation is broken." No, REALLY. "No amount of tweaking, adjusting or adding new layers on top will make things better." And he drops the other shoe. "Ray [that's MR. May sonny] said the Bush administration was in favor of a 'more progressive direct user fee' similar to a system that is currently being tested in Oregon. Under that pilot program, cars were equipped with on-board mileage counting equipment that was read by pumps equipped with mileage reader devices." Can you drop a third shoe? Sure! May also wants to "encourage" private companies to lease federal highways and maintain them through tolls. With ideas like that, what's the bet that the acting head is shuffled off-stage, and soon?
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