Everyone in the car biz knows that June was a catastrophic month for the U.S. new car market. Total sales dropped by 18.3 percent. The big change this time 'round: it wasn't just light trucks that took it on the chin. Car sales received some body blows, as well. If you're an auto industry exec [still] living in denial, it's best to stop here. If not, read 'em and weep. [NB: As per TTAC policy, sales numbers not adjusted for "sales days."]
Family Cars
As SUV refugees seek car-shaped shelter, there were some big winners in June. Sales of the Chevy Malibu* rose by an astounding 73.4 percent over last June, up 31.2 percent year to date (YTD). Honda's Accord chalked-up a 37.3 percent gain for the month, up 12.9 percent YTD. Ford's Fusion finished the month 18.4 percent ahead of last June, up 11.7 percent YTD. Meanwhile… Chrysler's once-proud full-size sedan continues to tank; 300 sales dropped 61.6 percent from last June, down 36.5 percent YTD. And surprise: the Toyota Camry took a hard hit, dipping 10.8 percent below last June, posting a 0.3 percent loss for the year.
Compacts
The Chevy Cobalt was another winner for GM, up 21.6 percent for the month and 18.5 percent YTD. The Dodge Caliber was another loser for Chrysler, down 43.6 percent for the month and down 0.5 percent YTD. Worryingly, Ford's Focus dropped 5.5 percent in June. But it's still 27.6 percent ahead of last year. The Toyota Corolla** continues strong sales, up 15.6 percent on month. Yet it still trails last year by 3.8 percent. Honda's Civic* finished the month 9.5 percent ahead of last June and 17.9 percent ahead of last year. The Sentra didn't do as well for Nissan. It was down nine percent on month, struggling to finish the first half of the year up 3.5 percent.
Subcompacts
Honda's fuel-efficient Fit was a big winner. Sales leaped 78.2 percent ahead of last June, finishing the semester up 67.4 percent. Nissan's Versa finished the month up 17.4 percent for June and 20.7 percent ahead YTD. GM's entry in this genre ran out gas. Sales of their Korean econobox Aveo were down 19.7 percent; down 1.7 percent YTD. Toyota's Yaris also lost ground, ending June down 7.5 percent; though staying 39 percent ahead YTD.
Trucks
Brace yourself. Chevy's Silverado* sales tumbled by 23.7 percent on the month, 25.6 percent YTD. Dodge's Ram fell 48.1 percent in June, down 30.4 percent for the first six months. Ford's F-Series sales dropped by 40.5 percent from June '07, ending the first two quarters down 22.7 percent. The Toyota Tundra , which had posted sales gains for the first quarter, finished the second quarter down 52.9 percent from last June; down 7.6 percent YTD. The Texas-built Tundra may soon drop below 2006's sales line.
Truck-Based SUVs
Chevy's Tahoe* showed a surprising gain from May (fleet sales?), adding about 2.5k units to the tally. finishing the month "just" 9.8 percent below last June. However, Tahoe sales are still down 26.6 percent YTD. The Dodge Durango continued its descent into oblivion, dropping a massive 67.3 percent in June, down 48.4 percent on the year. The Ford Explorer showed an equally abysmal June, losing 52 percent from last June and 33.2 percent from last year. Toyota's Sequoia continued its death-defying growth, surging by 25.1 percent in June, showing a 28.8 percent gain YTD.
Crossovers
The crossover bubble's burst. Thanks to a slow start last year, GMC's Acadia is up 8.5 percent on the year. But June sales fell off a cliff, down 40.1 percent from last June. Ford's Edge also dropped in June, this time by 19.9 percent. Robust sales earlier this year puts it 16.9 percent ahead of last year– for now. Toyota's woes continued, with Highlander* sales down 38.9 percent in June and 5.2 percent compared to 2007. The new Honda Pilot wasn't exactly pulling them in either; sales were down 29.8 percent for the month and 16.7 percent YTD.
Prius
Toyota's Prius dropped for the second month in a row. Due to short supplies and high demand worldwide, stateside sales are down 33.7 percent from last June. Sales drops in May and June pulled its year-to-date sales to 3.2 percent below last year. Toyota plans to produce 450k Priora in 2008; they've already sold 91.4k of them in North America alone so far this year. So look for their sales numbers to remain relatively low, in spite of growing demand.
By Manufacturer
GM's Hail Mary end-of-month 0% financing deal helped stave off a total rout. The General managed to finish June a "mere" 18.2 percent below last June's pace, down 16.3 percent for the year. Toyota's performance was June's shocker. ToMoCo ended the month 21.4 percent below June '07 (well below GM's dismal performance), dropping 6.8 percent on the year. Meanwhile, Chrysler sales fell by a staggering 35.9 percent for the month. ChryCo's trailing last year's sales by 22 percent. Ford was down 29.5 percent for June, 14.5 percent YTD. Honda managed to finish the month relatively unscathed, showing a 1.1 percent increase, with a 4.1 percent increase year to date.
Looking Ahead
July's misery may well eclipse June's. GM ran their 0% financing deal for the first week of the month, so they've up you-know-where without a you-know-what (small car?). Ford, Chrysler and Toyota are all offering incentives of varying sizes, particularly on the trucks and SUVs nobody wants. At what point will the deals become sweet enough to overcome the fuel bill? The sales numbers show we aren't there yet. As fuel prices climb, or even just hold steady, as the Fed declares that the economic gloom will extend well into '09, it's clear we're still a long way from the bottom of this combination of a violent contraction and a wholesale shift in product preference.
*Includes hybrids
** Includes Matrix
Has anyone seen any body-on-frame vehicle “new” for sub $10k OTD that can tow at least 2000 pounds? I don’t care what it is, what I do know is I have a jet ski (and maybe/possibly) boat in my future, most likely around next summer.
“new” ??
I bet you could score a decently new SUV for around that if you shopped hard.
Anyone know whether there’s anything to the following: I’ve been told that Toyota is diverting Prius units to other markets, due to the dropping value of the dollar. Claim being that even with the steep demand, they can’t compensate by raising the price, and that they can get more in other markets.
i bet you could get a dodge ram right around $10k
Gentlemen – In countries where vehicles go OTD for (the equivalent of) sub $10k, people are lucky to have enough food to eat, much less jet skis and boats.
Can you guys zero your graphs? The GM and Chrysler charts are especially misleading. With all the criticism you give for spin, let’s have some nice, honest axes.
Also, isn’t it interesting how Ford’s graph trend month-to-month is identical for the past 3 years?
Lastly, where are the market share numbers, as promised?
Has anyone seen any body-on-frame vehicle “new” for sub $10k OTD that can tow at least 2000 pounds? I don’t care what it is, what I do know is I have a jet ski (and maybe/possibly) boat in my future, most likely around next summer.
One of the Ford dealers here in Columbus, Ohio, was advertising F-150s for $9999 (not sure for how long). Might be elsewhere also?
John
Stein, I’ve wondered the same thing, myself. Whenever Toyota gets around to reporting OUS numbers, we’ll get a hint. I would bet that they’re doing as you suggest.
—
It seems to me that, as a group, Lambda sales are down from last year. Anybody think the Traverse will reverse that trend?
I wonder if the new Corolla is stealing some Camry sales as you can get it nicely equipped including navigation for less.
My local Dodge dealer advertised a Dodge Ram today at about $12,900 with an MSRP of about $22,300, give or take a few dollars.
I also happened to notice this glimmer of glad tidings from offshore for GM:
GM Up 3 per cent in Europe
when I was checking to see how my portfolio is doing today (badly, thank you very much for asking).
I forgot to mention – June was the first month that Ford’s numbers didn’t include Jaguar and Land Rover, so they’d be down a bit because of that.
The Japanese CUVs are doing well. I see loads of new Honda CR-Vs around the Seattle area. Lots of RAV-4s too.
I was always skeptical of the crossover trend. It looks like an SUV, people associate SUV with bad gas mileage, and SUV’s are now deeply unfashionable.
Ford Flex will probably do better because it looks like a minivan and people don’t associate minivan with sucky gas mileage (although the mileage may be equally bad, people don’t do the math).
My buddy was looking at buying a Caliber and the dealer told him there were no 2008’s available anywhere. How do you explain that? I told him to go look at the Vibe.(needs to buy union made Big 2.8) Looks like he is going to buy a Vibe.
I think Toyota is suffering to some degree from its Consumer Reports downgrade. Toyota buyers won’t put up with second rate quality, especially from Toyota.
I suspect they will make prominent quality and feature upgrades in the next gen Camry to smooth buyers ruffled feathers. On the other hand I made the same prediction after the last model, and the model before.
seoultrain
where are the market share numbers, as promised?
Here.
bluecon
My buddy was looking at buying a Caliber and the dealer told him there were no 2008’s available anywhere. How do you explain that? I told him to go look at the Vibe.(needs to buy union made Big 2.8) Looks like he is going to buy a Vibe.
The inventory numbers show Chrysler had about 9700 Calibers on hand on the first of June. Records indicate they built approximately 13,000 more during the month. They only sold 6100 of them in June. Looks to me like he could have found one somewhere!
Just curious… did the dealer try to sell him something else like a Nitro (sales down 55% in June) or an Avenger (sales down 49%)?
“I’ve been told that Toyota is diverting Prius units to other markets, due to the dropping value of the dollar.”
I don’t know if Toyota admits to doing that, but it sure would make sense. If you have limited supply of a product and are not able to meet demand then the rational thing to do is to sell first to those who pay you the most in the currency of your choice.
With all the bad news about the economy. I wonder what the figures are for other high ticket items 6/07- 6/08. I’m guessing housing sales and starts are off too. My take is that the masses are waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Frank,
Gotta’ feeling that you are going to need to alter the Cry-slur graph next month, they are headed out the floor on that one.
Tundra inventories are not going to bankrupt Toyota like it could the big 3.
Hmmm…was impressed with the Malibu increases…until I looked at the chart.
They were selling as well, or better in 2006 (OK, probably more fleet).
Considering the improvement I would have expected better.
Aveo-maybe the market has figured out that it gets mid-size mpg. Being down for the year seems to indicate its not supply, anyone know the day on lot average for the industry’s wart?
Frank, do you have a percentage on the Ford drop do to the Jag/Landie loses?
Was it noticeable? Until this month they had performed well vs. the average (OK, less poorly).
Bunter1
Frank,
Gotta’ feeling that you are going to need to alter the Cry-slur graph next month, they are headed out the floor on that one.
I already had to do it this month. Next month the axis on those charts will be “zeroed” out.
Frank, do you have a percentage on the Ford drop do to the Jag/Landie loses?
Was it noticeable? Until this month they had performed well vs. the average (OK, less poorly).
In May, Jaguar and Land Rover sold 4760 vehicles combined. Ford’s total sales difference between May and June was 43,800 units, so roughly 11% of the sales drop can be attributed to their exit.
“Crossover” was the last gasp marketing effort to try to sell something big- or at least at a big cost- while downsizing the actual product.
In other words, without the huge SUV and truck margins, the automakers thought they could still wring nice margins from something they foisted called a crossover.
The biggest reason the crossovers aren’t selling isn’t their bloated thirstiness, it’s their bloated prices.
Let’s see, $43k for an Enclave, or $26k for a tricked out Accord (after the 4 or 5k discounts Honda, the we-don’t-have-to-incent carmaker is throwing out).
Andy D – For example, I personally fall into that category. I’m in an industry (not auto related) that can be hit by regional hard times so my car fund continues to gain interest while I hang onto my older but fuel stingy Acura. Same with the flat panel TV fund and other big ticket purchases – hanging onto the money until we get a better grasp of what the next administration might do (the whole “First 100 Days” mission statement…) I know I’m not the only one who might be uncomfortable writing a huge check at this moment in time.
Opinion on crossovers – much like (for example) the Pontiac G8 – right car, wrong time. It would have been great to move people into crossovers over five years ago for the basic reason of getting people into vehicles that handle better and have better bumpers that match autos in an accident, but let’s face it, people are doing more homework for an auto purchase and when they see a Pathfinder that averages 17 mpg and a Murano that averages 19 mpg, that isn’t enough to swing an opinion. That’s when (if their family or needs will fit) the Altima or G35 gets purchased. They could get mid-20’s in mixed driving.
I can only imagine how much worse this economic slowdown is going to get as I (for example) have been used to the past decade and a half of go-go-go type of money, purchasing power, credit, housing, and so on. The generation younger than me knows of nothing else but that. The auto and housing industries have thrived on that. This is going to be awful for quite some time…I would like to think that any other President would actually do something about this whole mess. I guess that’s asking too much. Of course Carter actually told the truth and we know how his term ended.
I simply can’t understand how anyone, especially after a test drive, can actually choose to buy a Chevrolet Aveo. I’m getting a little nauseous just thinking about it.
The Aveo has absolutely no redeeming qualities as a car, but it is actually useful for Chevy dealers. What better way to sell Cobalts than by first showing buyers a smaller, underpowered, poorly assembled Aveo that has WORSE fuel economy for about the same money!!! The lukewarm, average-at-best Cobalt must suddenly seem like a Lexus in comparison! =) It’s the same principal as hanging out with people who are uglier and/or fatter than you, so you look great in comparison. lol
Chevy has been advertising the Cobalt more aggressively for the last few months. Wisely the focus has been on fuel economy and the “XFE” version’s EPA ratings. It seems that the ads were effective, given the sales increases. It’s also likely that some would-be Aveo buyers were diverted to the Cobalt after seeing the ads.
The Toyota Camry has a lot more competition than it did a year ago. The Accord and, amazingly, the Malibu are as good or better than the Camry in all significant ways and they’re two years fresher, to boot.
I’ll be interested to see how well the ’09 Mazda6 performs when it hits the road. I’m also betting that Ford Fusion will see a healthy spike in sales just as soon as dealers begin to stock more well-equipped 4-cylinder SE/SEL models. The Fusion will also be trading it’s 2.3L for the 2.5L introduced in the new Mazda6. All reports so far say that it’s significantly quicker, much quieter and gets about 3mpg better highway fuel economy- sounds like a winner!
I suspect that the F150 and Dodge Ram numbers are down so greatly is because there are new models coming out shortly in addition to the gas price panic.
theflyersfan- I still see CUVs as a good idea. You have to think about the amount of sales/profit over 2-8 years as opposed to just 6 months. Sales might be depressed now but could easily pick up once the panicking stops. I don’t think that crossovers steal from sedan sales or vice versa. I think that crossovers actually entice new customers into a showroom. The large CUVs may steal minivan sales but so what.
The gas price/”I have to buy a small car” panic will end as it always has before and Americans will go back to buying the large comfortable cars they prefer. They may not be big trucks and SUVs but we won’t all be driving Civics, Priora and Corollas.
or Volts
Hey Frank! How about some Impala numbers eh?With all the doom and gloom,the last I heard was O.T right into the fall.Enlighten us all with some good news on the Impala situation,or not.
mikey Hey Frank! How about some Impala numbers eh?With all the doom and gloom,the last I heard was O.T right into the fall.Enlighten us all with some good news on the Impala situation,or not. Are you sure you really want to hear this, mikey? Impala was down 53.5% from last June and is down 23% from last year. I don't know why they'll be building all those Impalas or what they plan to do with them. Maybe there are some massive fleet orders coming up. (Before you ask, LaCrosse sales were down 30.5% in June and are down 8.4% year to date.)
Thanks for the info Frank.I knew Buick was in trouble but we are being told Impala is strong.
Ah,screw it, I’ll worry about it Monday,thanks again.
Finally, some year long, year to year data. All that is ever reported most places is current month versus current month of previous year (which, is irrelevant considering the economic situation faced right now versus last year).
The “percentage” data doesn’t tell the whole story, as shown by the Malibu graph. Up 73% sounds great until you realize that it is just matching the 2006 sales of the terrible Malibu. Things don’t look quite so rosy.
Regardless, I’m thrilled to see this sort of data. It tells so much more of a story than the generic garbage reported by the media. If someone was really motivated, they could normalize the sales based on economic conditions (total sales in the industry down) and carryover versus redesigned models. That is where you could really tell which cars are on the upswing and which are on the downswing. If only I didn’t have to do real numerical analysis at work, I’d tackle it!
One of the Ford dealers here in Columbus, Ohio, was advertising F-150s for $9999 (not sure for how long). Might be elsewhere also?
John
I tried to search it out but cant find this offer.
Does anyone know of a website that tracks these prices?
The Chrysler dealer here in Titusville Florida has the big balloon out again. “08 Rams 50% off – details inside.” I’d stop in to get the details, but I’m afraid the salesman would have a heart attack seeing someone on the lot.
The Chrysler dealer here in Titusville Florida has the big balloon out again. “08 Rams 50% off – details inside.” I’d stop in to get the details, but I’m afraid the salesman would have a heart attack seeing someone on the lot.
Getting 50% is better than get zilch/ SFA sitting on the lot anyways.
And probably tons of them sitting there.
Or they need to team up with Shady Tree Brothel for free BJ with new trucks. Call Truck & Trick sales. Heels & Wheels both at 50% off.
This dealer must be getting hit very hard!
Frank
, again their are numbers and other numbers. The key is not that sub-copacts are replacing lost volume for Suv’s and trucks. No, it is that profits are non-existant on these replacements. It is not accidental that the Detroit three are trying to hold on to the SUV market with crossovers. As someone else pointed out it is the only other refuge they have to make $10-20K per unit. These profit numbers don’t exist in any kind of car they may sell. As to the small cars being temporary, history will only repeat itself (ala 1970’s) if the gas prices come down. If they stay high or go higher, the trucks and SUV’s will go back to their 1950’s meaning. Those that need to haul will buy them. We will then see that the vast majority of these 5000lb trucks will dissapear as they were nothing but minivan and station wagon replacements (but with panache). It will be amazing to find out how many Americans will be able to get by with hatchbacks and small light weight wagons. Others who never filled their truck and SUV with large families or cargo, will almost certainly revert to sedans.(these being sexier than wagons or mini-vans)
Just heard this on the radio this morning: a local Nissan dealer in Omaha here (I think it was Laka Manawa Nissan) is giving away a free Sentra/Altima type sedan if you buy one of their SUVs/pickups/minivans, presumably for full price. Our Kia dealer does stuff like that sometimes too. Man that can not be good for the bottom line. I think.
For GM at least, it is encouraging that the engineers were able to tweak the Cobalt for 36 mpg HWY. The Cobalt was an inferior product in its class upon launch, but little by little, GM made nice improvements year upon year. (e.g., the interior in the most recent model is light years ahead of that at launch).
The Aveo, on the other hand, is terrible. However, suprisingly in Europe, the 1.4L engine is reported at combined 5.9 litres / 100 km. I just don’t get it.
It’s still very depressing that Daewoo/Chevy is the new team A. Does that mean that Saturn and Opel will be team B? Will Saturn absorb the better-built and designed Opel vehicles? The Ford Fiesta and Opel Corsa (neither of which the U.S. has) are brilliant small car designs, easily blowing away equivalent Japanese models.
Sigh.
Man your charts rock. BUT:
I would like to see market share charts for each segment.
Also YTD volumes would be nice.
Good job
Glad to see the Fusion numbers coming up, as I just bought one about a month ago. Granted, it was used (I won’t ever buy a new car again) with a fair amount of depreciation…but the 4 cyl/5 spd combo isn’t too bad. The 4 cyl is a tad buzzier than I would like, but at a steady 70 MPH, it’s a comfortable hauler. Toss in the 6 CD changer and sunroof and I’m pretty pleased with it overall. Mileage after my long road trip to Florida from South Carolina wound up just over 26 MPG. Relative to my Jeep Liberty, that’s an improvement. I’d love to see Ford, GM and Chrysler develop desirable small to mid-size cars with premium content. There are a few nuggets of promise out there, but they still have a way to go. I guess there was just too much time suckling at the teet of the almighty SUV and quitting cold turkey is proving to be a hard habit to break…
Nissan’s collapse in the truck market seemed kind of news-worthy to me, but isn’t mentioned:
Nissan’s June sales fell 17.7% and are down 2.4% year to date. The bottom literally fell out of the truck and SUV market for Nissan; Titan full-size pickup sales fell 71.4%, Pathfinder sales were down 71.7%, Quest sales fell 62.3%, Frontier sales fell 58.1%, Armada sales fell 63.4%, XTerra sales fell 68.3%, and the all-new 2009 Murano sales were off 24%. Overall, Nissan light truck sales were down 37.9% in June.
Has anyone seen any body-on-frame vehicle “new” for sub $10k OTD that can tow at least 2000 pounds?
You do mean 12,000 pounds right?
Because you could buy a four-cylinder Ranger, or even a Jeep Patriot with tow package that can tow 2000 pounds. It wouldn’t be that fun to drive but an F-150 to tow a jetski sounds a little like overkill to me.
Have you considered a used four-banger Tacoma?
I told him to go look at the Vibe.(needs to buy union made Big 2.8) Looks like he is going to buy a Vibe.
A union made Toyota (Matrix) that is…
Has anyone seen any body-on-frame vehicle “new” for sub $10k OTD that can tow at least 2000 pounds? I don’t care what it is, what I do know is I have a jet ski (and maybe/possibly) boat in my future, most likely around next summer.
I would think any small/medium size truck could be had for under 10k. Ford Ranger, Chevy Colorado or the Isuzu twins if they are still for sale, Dodge Dakota.
Although I wouldn’t actually recommend any of those. A four banger Tacoma or Frontier may be a better bet.
8Ring, a truck for under 10K ? Not around here. Finding a Nissan four banger is next to impossible and the base model (if you can find one) starts at 16K. The Tacoma prices are similar. I’m afraid you’ll need to wait for the Chinese or Indian companies to build a truck for that price.
eh_political Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
I think Toyota is suffering to some degree from its Consumer Reports downgrade. Toyota buyers won’t put up with second rate quality, especially from Toyota.
I suspect they will make prominent quality and feature upgrades in the next gen Camry to smooth buyers ruffled feathers. On the other hand I made the same prediction after the last model, and the model before.
That’s not it. They have a shortage of Priuses (possibly diverting some to non-dollar markets where they can sell them for more). They also are pretty close to selling out quickly of all their Toyota and Scion cars other than the Avalon (if you buy into the daily selling rate stuff, the Camry was basically flat both monthly and year to date according to that measure-also remember the Camry was all-new this time last year, with high sales then because of that, making comparisons look weak). All their Lexus models are between refreshes except the LX (Lexus sales are notoriously streaky, going sky high whenever they redesign a model and then coming crashing down to earth soon after). And their truck and SUV sales are in the toliet like everybody else.
That is, these numbers were not unexpected by Toyota Corporate. They had budgeted accordingly.
Here’s the overall numbers:
http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2008070177210
In any case, the CR downgrade was very specific. Three models (in particular engine/transmission groupings only on two of them, I believe-that is, there was a specific flaw in the transmission of the V6 Camry I believe that did not exist in the 4 cylinder version, so the V6 scored poorly and the 4 scored well-the flaw was fixed) scored below average, which was enough to make CR move them off the “automatically reliabile” list. The other twenty or thirty models were still above average.
That is, they are still miles ahead of the Americans, the Germans, the Koreans, and every other Japanese brand other than Honda and Subaru (the only other two brands that get the automatic pass on reliability for the first year, due to their history).
# Stein X Leikanger Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Anyone know whether there’s anything to the following: I’ve been told that Toyota is diverting Prius units to other markets, due to the dropping value of the dollar. Claim being that even with the steep demand, they can’t compensate by raising the price, and that they can get more in other markets.
I don’t know whether the rumour is true -but cars sure cost a lot more in Australia than the USA. Currently $A equals about US$0.95.
The list price of a new Prius here??… get this
$A 37,400 base model
$A 46,900 with all the fruit
Don’t ask me why
Chrysler’s once-proud full-size sedan continues to tank; 300 sales dropped 61.6 percent from last June, down 36.5 percent YTD
Funny, quite recently I expressed surprise that the 300 is tanking so badly. However, I parked a few spots down from one the other day and when I gazed over and looked at it from the side it occurred to me…’Damn, that car is ugly.’ From the front and back, it’s ok, but from the side? Awful.
[NB: As per TTAC policy, sales numbers not adjusted for “sales days.”]
Thank You!
Living in an area where dealerships are open 7 days per week, I never, never, understood why “sales days” “adjustments” served any purpose other than putting lipstick on a pig.