GM is reporting sales drops for June; just how bad it is depends on what numbers you use. Their press release talks about deliveries, retail sales, sales, adjusted numbers, and unadjusted numbers. Like Automotive News , we prefer using numbers that aren't adjusted for "sales days," so GM's sales for June were down 18.5 percent from the previous year. For the first half of the year, they were down 16.5 percent from 2007. If you can believe it, car sales were down e ver more than light trucks (21.1 percent vs. 16 percent, unadjusted). Individual car models had increases, some large, that were more than balanced out by other car models having decreases.So, what about the Hail Mary 72-Hour-No-Make-That-10-Day 0 Percent Financing sale? "The 72 Hour Sale at the end of June was targeted at the 2008 vehicles left in inventory. Combined full-size pickup and utility inventory is down about 124,000 vehicles compared with June a year ago. The sale helped rebalance inventory to a stronger car mix. There were about 238,000 cars and 550,000 trucks in inventory at the end of June." Given the rate trucks are selling, a two-to-one ratio of trucks to cars still doesn't sound that promising. July's sales numbers will tell that story.
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Not as bad as it could have been, for sure.
However, Malibu sales were still a mediocre 13K. With a marketplace suddenly interested in small cars, Aveo sales dropped, Cobalt sales increased modestly and less than a thousand Astras moved.
The Lambdas may have been affected by a strike but then again, maybe not. There’s Outlooks a-plenty at the nearby Saturn dealer.
It would be nice to have the real lowdown on fleet sales (as in, what percentage of dealer sales really went to fleets).
And revenue for the quarter should be an interesting number, too.
CNBC has been reporting an 8.3% drop in sales, much better than anticipated, and the stock price has responded accordingly. are we looking at different stats?
There truly is a sucker born every minute. Apparently, people see that GM didn’t drop as much as Ford and think GM is doing better – hence, let’s buy, and the stock rises $1 per share. See what a little zero percent financing magic can do?
If Automotive News (and TTAC) prefers to report unadjusted sales numbers, why are Toyota’s numbers adjusted?
Adjusted: Down 11.5%
Unadjusted: Down 21% (or so)
Just sayin’.
GM is reporting strictly volume difference while Toyota is report DSR difference. Apples to Oranges.
If GM had reported DSR they are down 8.3%, actually outperforming Toyota’s 11.5% for the month.
Why GM didn’t report DSR, like Toyota did, who knows. Would have sounded much better.
Less horrible is still horrible. Fix Astra and bring over Corsa, Saturn.
The deals were structured where Cobalt was a better purchase than Aveo.
Lambdas…. hmm.
The might end up having to fire sale the rest of the big vehicles and hopefully, NOT replace them with 2009s to rot on the lot. Inventory management of SUV/trucks will be crucial.
Invicta/Regal/Lacrosse replacement cannot come fast enough.
G6 – where did that come from?
The 8.3% decrease is obtained by using “adjusted sales days” where they say one month had X number of selling days and the same month the following year had Y selling days so they adjust the sales numbers, ostensibly to equalize the numbers.The manufacturers love to play with numbers to get the most positive results, so GM (and others) primarily report the adjusted numbers.
Since the “selling days” will vary from city to city and state to state, depending on local “blue laws” that keep the dealerships from opening on Sundays, using “selling days” really isn’t a useful or relevant calculation any more. We don’t play the numbers games, instead comparing total sales to total sales.
I thought the policy was to use the number (adjusted v. unadjusted) that made the most sensational headline.
Tahoe sales for the month went from down from 11,564 (07) -> 10,426 (08), or -10%, vs. +1% using ASD. That’s just messed up.
Got it. and Automotive News just revised their headline to reflect Toyota’s drop was 21.4%, not 11.5%. As long as everything’s apples to apples, I’m good.
June 2007: 245,739
June 2008: 193,234
superskier :
Right you are. Automotive News “adjusted their headline.” As have we!
hitman1970 :
Fix Astra and bring over Corsa, Saturn.
Astra isn’t the problem; Saturn is. The fact that Saturn’s former bread and butter (the compact) is now represented by a total also-ran is indicative of how utterly useless Saturn now is.
Saturn’s main, volume-leading model should be a compact that:
1. Competes directly with the Kia Rio on price
2. Gets an EPA 27/37
3. Has plastic side panels
If Saturn can’t offer that, Saturn must die.
There is a simple reason why GMs percentage looks better than expected.
Go to the June 2007 numbers for GM.
They were down 21% last June (see June 07 BTN)so they are being compared with a terrible previous number which makes this one look (somewhat) better.
For comparison.
Ford June ’07= -8%
Toy June ’07= +10-12% (memory)
This means with a 30% cushion from last year they barely edged Toyota. Ummm, not a victory.
This will repeat in July as that was also horrible month for GM. In August IIRC they started a fleet dump which will probably make this years Aug/Sept numbers look very nasty.
Make no mistake this was not a rebound. Year over year percentages are a bit hazardous for comparisons.
Frank, do you have market share numbers?
Love and statistics,
Bunter
I am right there with you, Axel! I would add that just because it has plastic side panels does not mean you don’t have to screw the car together properly. The original Saturns were NVH nightmares and were cheaply slapped together.
If GM wanted to give Saturn an additional selling point, adding a 1.6l or 1.8l diesel would make a huge difference. Then you’re talking 40/50 mpg EPA – and something you can advertise like crazy.
@Bunter1 & hitman1970:
What is wrong with the Astra? It seems to be a fairly nice car. Is it because it does not conform to the original Saturn mission? I’d like to know.
Tyler D- no idea might be supply. The few reviews I have seen were mediocre and the mpg is non-special. OK, car can’t see why it shouldn’t do at least as well as the ‘Balt.
What about the Impala, -50%! GP, -93%, is it discontinued?
Or have fleet buyers turned up their noses on these?
Axel,
Saturn failed miserably in marketing their brand image change.
Tyler D- Astra is actually a good vehicle. The MPG is not very competitive for its size. Its Euro-strange interior may throw some people off. Its lack of an aux input is damn near unforgivable in a youth-oriented ride.
Go to the Saturn websitea and price one out. Now look at a 4-banger Aura XE. The Aura costs as much or less and gives you as good (or better for 2009) mileage as Astra.
This is why I recommended Corsa. If GM cannot create price separation due to the value of the Belgian waffle( Euro) vs the dollar then bring over the smaller, cheaper Corsa.
The Corsa is an egg. I taught my wife how to drive stick on a rental Corsa while stationed in Germany in the late 1990s. An econo-egg with great mileage would sell pretty damn good right now.
I guess JD Power got it slightly wrong on GM…
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/jd-power-on-june-sales-gm-262-ford-314-chrysler-301/
They weren’t too far off on Ford and Chrysler, though…
Bunter1, That Impala figure reflects a dramatic drop in fleet sales. Retail sales of the Impala were actually up 15% this June, according to GM.
ferrarimanf355 :
July 1st, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I guess JD Power got it slightly wrong on GM…
I’m going to guess that the 72-hour thing saved their butts at the last minute, something that JD Power might not have picked up on.
Geotpf :
That sounds likely. GM can’t dump their trucks fast enough in this market…
Wow, Saab dropped to 1,872 cars in June ’08 from 4,361 cars for June ’07. Oh, and don’t forget to add the 162 “trucks” Saab sold to unsuspecting fools in June ’08.
And BTW, how exactly does GM determine “selling days”? GM shows 24 of them in 2008 and 27 of these mythical days for ’07. My calendar shows five Sundays in June ’08 and four Sundays in June ’07, so if they are saying Sunday doesn’t count, the difference in “selling days” should only be one.
How special must you feel to have bought a Saab 9-2x before June and then look at this Sales release. You would be able to pick out exactly where you fall in this equation. How often can you say that about a car purchase.
hitman1970- unfortunately the Corsa would lose even more money than the Astra does. If they build the next version in North America we’ll probably see it.
Except for the missing aux jack you mentioned you can get a fairly nicely equipped Astra for the same price as the base Aura XE. Plus the Astra is a nicer finished car. The Aura EPA MPG is 2 less than the Astra but it’s probably more in real life because the Aura likely only achieves it’s fuel mileage because the auto trans is “tuned” for economy, with the typical reluctant downshifts.
The Astra is also available with ESC with the 4 (it’s only available with the V6 for the Aura) and a manual trans.
Personally I think a low torque automatic transmission car is the worst experience one can have driving.
It seems GM thinks total ’08 sales will be off by 15%.
That’s 600K vehicles.
GM North America will be down from 5.6 million vehicles in ’02 to 3.6 million vehicles in ’08.
Nasty slide.
Most vehicles lines look very weak. For instance, the important large crossovers (Acadia, Outlook, Enclave) sold only 8800 versus Toyota 15400 for Highlander + Sienna.
Reuters – Top 20 Selling Vehicles Jan – Jun 2008
RANK VEHICLE 2008 2007 ’07 RANK %Chng
1 Ford F-Series 274,713 355,438 1 -22.7
2 Toyota Camry 239,881 240,530 3 -0.3
3 Chevy Silverad 231,320 310,896 2 -25.6
4 Honda Accord 205,862 182,346 6 +12.9
5 Honda Civic 204,961 173,800 8 +17.9
6 Toyota Corolla 194,488 202,221 4 -3.8
7 Nissan Altima 158,006 140,253 9 +12.7
8 Chevy Impala 138,952 180,390 7 -23.0
9 Dodge Ram 128,944 185,257 5 -30.4
10 Ford Focus 123,449 96,732 15 +27.6
11 Chevy Cobalt 114,250 96,437 14 +18.5
12 Honda CR-V 104,811 104,179 11 +0.6
13 Ford Escape 92,065 92,205 17 -0.2
14 Toyota Prius 91,440 94,503 16 -3.2
15 Chevy Malibu 88,575 67,499 26 +31.2
16 Ford Fusion 87,923 78,695 20 +11.7
17 GM Pontiac G6 85,682 69,955 28 +22.5
18 GMC Sierra 83,174 99,293 12 -16.2
19 Toyota Tundra 76,516 82,516 23 -7.3
20 Chrysl Caravan 75,805 103,562 10 -26.8
Hmm…
Cadillac just announced the BLS is going to be offered with a more than 7000 Euro discount in the Netherlands.
A new BLS 2.0 Turbo Business used to cost EUR 35790, but from now on that will be EUR 28590. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact they’ve sold a whole 51 of them this year-to-date, including the wagon and 75 last year in total, which is way less than Porsche 911s in spite of heavy taxes. Obviously the total market is not that big (population 16 MM people –> about 500000 new cars/year) but (intended) competitors like the 3 series, A4 and C-Class all manage 5-10K a year.
Anyway, what is more interesting, the Saab 9-3 with the same engine (in other words, the same car with a different grill) still costs EUR36490, while the Opel Vectra with that engine (The same chassis) is also slightly more expensive while being the classic ‘budget brand’ if you don’t count the Daevrolets GM is selling here. I wonder what it does with sales of those two, although the Vectra is about to be replaced and Saab and Cadillac have two totally different brand images in Europe, apart from both being subpar premium brands…