The IBM Institute for Business Value polled some 125 automotive executives and "thought leaders." Their final report [via Green Car Congress] concludes that "sustainability concerns" will rule the industry's future. In fact, by 2020, they figure all new cars will incorporate some form of hybridization. Respondents were less bullish on hydrogen, daunted by "the added challenge of building an entirely new infrastructure." The study also predicts the rise of the two-car consumer, diving "a primary vehicle that best meets their daily needs… [with] the option to change to a different model, as needed." Telematics (e.g. remote vehicle prognostics and active safety), data downloads and streaming media; and powertrain innovations are all in the cards. The report tells industry types to embrace new mobility models, improve the retail experience, simplify complexity, build international partnerships and execute globally. Wow, huh. Meanwhile, I'm heading over to Tomorrowland to see yesterday's future today. 

Automotive Fleet has published their mid-year report of fleet sales, and there are a few surprises to be found. The Crown Vic's place at the top of the list (94.2 percent of sales to fleets) is not one of them. Nor will anyone gasp at the Sebring's (69.9 percent of convertibles and 62.2 percent of sedans) and Avenger's (65.5 percent) rankings. However, the stats show that 56.6 percent of Dodge Calibers went to fleets, as did 49.9 percent of Chevy Impalas. The highest import nameplate: the Mazda6 (59.5 percent) followed by the Suzuki XL7 (53.2 percent) and, believe it or not, the Volvo S40 (48.9 percent). Brands you'd think were naturals for fleets like Hyundai and Kia placed below the 50 percent level. Overall, 21.8 percent of the cars and 20.8 percent of the trucks sold the first half of this year went to fleets. As overall sales drop and inventory builds up, that number will probably grow for the second half. We'll offer a more detailed analysis of fleet sales soon. [Thanks to NoSubstitute for the link]

For 33 years Jane Hoyt has been driving her baby blue 1975 VW Beetle. Is it love? Madness? A '70's thing? When I asked her about the appeal of her longtime automotive companion, it was none of the above. "It's a story of inertia. Really, it's a metaphor for my life. I always stay too long at the fair." That last word struck me as kinda funny. If a car ownership is a metaphorical "fair," can you get a lifetime of kicks from a four-wheeled Ferris Wheel? 

Those of you headed to the California State Fair this month can take the kiddies along for brainwashing "a new eco-friendly show" at the "Buick-Pontiac-GMC Rainforest Pavilion." What the division that produces some of GM's biggest and thirstiest vehicles has to do with the rainforest escapes me at the moment, but the "'green' fun" features a "Dr. Greenius Biofuel" as host and "will engage fair-goers with interactive fun while also educating about alternative fuels and how to be more eco-friendly in day-to-day life." The kiddos can participate in "hands-on demonstrations like learning to juggle, piecing together puzzles, and playing with an easy squeezy biofuel tool demonstrating the difference between petroleum and ethanol in a fun-filled way." And then once you're through in the Rain Forest, you can shuffle over to the "Chevy Alt Fuel Magical Biodome" to see "Harry Hybrid-dini" with "an act that incorporates alternative fuel words of wisdom." And of course, "Chevrolet, Buick, Pontiac and GMC will present a variety of fuel-friendly vehicles to explore throughout the Fair." If you've managed to hold down your lunch so far, or really do believe that the children are our future, you can read the entire press release here.

Click here for the full press release

Memo to car manufacturers: naming contests don't work, except to grind my gears. It didn't work for Alfa Romeo, who had to ignore contest results for the car we now know as the MiTo (fan chosen name was Furiosa). And now General Motors has revealed that the production name of the Pontiac G8 ST concept – a "sport pickup" version of the Australian Pontiac G8 – will be the Pontiac G8 ST. Jalopnik's Jalops went so far as to hand out buttons calling for an El Camino revival. While that moniker might not have been GM's best call– it's a Chevy name– neither is G8 ST. Then again, with the G8 ST being a niche within a niche, big diff (no LSD implied). The name choice really does show, however, GM's incredible ability to minimize the impact of a car when it comes to market– especially one they've been talking up for the last twenty-some years. This really smacks of the Astra: an overseas product that car lovers craved that GM eventually pushed it into the corner. Same with the Commodore-cum-G8 (at least that one got a few TV commercials). And when it goes on sale in late 2009 (another year wait? are they kidding?), the G8 ST sport truck is likely to be yet another victim of GM's monumental ADD.

So Ford's President of the America's, Mark Fields, did his stint at the Traverse City auto industry management mahalo. Ford was kind enough to publish the formerly private jet-setting Fields' speech, which we present below. His opening theme is clear (expressed above): "I also have been watching some of the recent commentary – including from speakers this week – about who's to blame for the auto industry not anticipating the dramatic increase in fuel prices and the accelerated segmentation shifts this year. But I really wonder if that is where we should be spending our energy as industry leaders." No, of course not. (Ignoring the fact that Fields was in power way back then.) Even stranger: "While none of us would have planned for the sharp downturn in the industry or the dramatically accelerated segment shifts, we are seizing the opportunity in a dramatic way." Would have? Yes, the guy's got a 'tude. "Some of our rivals snickered when we first starting talking about EcoBoost nearly two years ago – but it's interesting to see others trying to catch up with us…" To be fair, Fields is making all the right noises, plan-wise. But you have to wonder why such a shoulder-chipped old school Detroit apologist (and aspiring CEO) wasn't swept away by Alan Mulally's new broom.

Mark Fields' Speech at the Traverse City Management Seminar 

Disney's Magic Kingdom has nothing on GM, the new Happiest Place on Earth. Why, things are so good there that CFO Ray Young told Bloomberg they may be able to reap a larger chunk of their projected $10b savings this year, instead of waiting for next year. Speaking at at the Traverse City auto management lovefest yesterday, Young said The General may have "as much as $17 billion" cash to get them through next year. And it's all because they're "accelerating all of [the] stuff" in Rick Wagoner's July 15 magical "Cut Your Way to Prosperity" plan. Of course, their model mix is still out of kilter for the market. And they have to look at "how strategic" GMAC will be as they enter "another stage" of their relationship with the floundering finance company (read: find some sucker to buy their share of that turkey). Oh, and they may have to "reconsider" their "contractual obligation… with the UAW" on retiree health care even before they make the first payment into the union-run superfund. And they'll do all this while "reinventing the automobile and GM," according to Young's slideshow. GM Deathwatch later today.

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Chrysler LLC will aggressively pursue partnerships with other auto makers to expand its global reach–" Hang on; "expand its global reach?" Don't you mean get something into Chrysler's American showrooms that customers will actually buy so we (Cerberus) can finally sell someone this turkey? No? OK. Carry on. "and its president dismissed the idea that joint ventures may damage the value of Chrysler's own brand." Well exactly! How could rebadging/reengineering someone else's product possibly hurt Chrysler's brand? (What brand, you say?) Especially when ChryCo Co-Prez Tom LaSorda promises "every joint venture will either produce an entirely new vehicle not already in Chrysler's lineup or it will be limited to a slightly modified car or truck made or designed by the partner but that doesn't compete with an existing Chrysler model in the same market." What's more, LaSorda says everyone should be doing it! "Partner early and partner often, because more strategic alliances and joint ventures are on the way. And the best time to partner with a company entering your market is before they enter." So let's see… Chrysler's cutting or trying to cut deals with VW, Nissan, Fiat, Great Wall, Chery, Mahindra and one Russian carmaker to be named (or not) later. Is there anyone "The New Chrysler" won't sleep with talk to?

The Detroit News reports that presidential candidate John McCain "declined to support any of several proposals to provide loan guarantees to the domestic carmakers." (Whatever happened to Just Say No?) During a campaign swing through Michigan, McCain dismissed calls to help Detroit make the cars they should have been making in the first place, or should be able to make now on their own damn dime given all the profits they banked during the SUV and pickup boom, or something like that. Anyway, McCain's rationale: supporting bail-outs would unleash karma that would jinx Detroit's automakers. No, really. "Asked if he backed such proposals, McCain suggested that such support might create a sense of doom around the companies. 'I have heard many of these proposals, but I have also had meetings with the Big 3 automakers, and they are confident that with the new hybrids and flex-fuels and other technology advances … they can succeed. So in all due respect, I worry a little bit about us predicting failure on the part of the automakers when they're struggling mightily.'" "Barack Obama supports loans and tax credits to retool the nation's auto plants and build the next generation of American cars," Brent Colburn, Obama's economic adviser, advised soon thereafter.

Manny Lopez is The Detroit News ' head cheerleader. The Auto Editor hires the team, chooses the cheers and makes sure everyone stays on message. Manny's megaphone emits the same hoarse polemic the paper's been shouting since the 60's: "they" don't understand us. His latest: if the "Planet Protectors" (Nancy Pelosi, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Al Gore) watched the Woodward Dream Cruise they'd leave us the fuck alone [paraphrasing]. Manny's madder than that though. He launches a personal attack that posits what cars the terrible trio MAY have owned before their rise to power, to show their possible hypocrisy. Nancy's imaginary past puts her at the wheel of a "sun-drenched yellow Bug that was dressed up and clean." Arnie drove "a 1974 Cadillac Eldorado with a 500-cubic inch V-8 engine pulling 300-plus horsepower." And Al Gore piloted "a 1970 Plymouth Barracuda complete with a 426 Hemi engine." And then Manny plays CYA. "Perhaps they drove econoboxes and my guesses are all wrong, but I bet they have distinct memories of classic cars, nonetheless." I don't suppose the Auto Editor thought about actually establishing the facts of the matter, any more than Detroit considers the possibility that "outsiders" may have something valid to say about the industry.

OK, so Streetfire.net pulled the suburban sreet racing 'Vette video from their site, to which this post was originally linked. Fair enough. Commendable, really– if you adhere to the school of thought that presenting dangerous criminal activities to the general public may not be the best possible use of bandwidth. Rest assured I see the other side of this: first amendment and all that. Besides, there are plenty of illegal automobiling videos on Streetfire and YouTube. Do we really expect them to police every one? 

PHILLY STREET RACING

Automotive News [AN, sub] brings news from the Traverse City auto-exec seminary. Only their headline news is not the real news. AN proclaims "Toyota exec says pickup market will recover." And indeed Robert Carter does just that, in a distinctly vague, Detroit-like way. "We are absolutely confident that the recovery will take place," the GM of ToMoCo USA says, confidently. "It's just arguable when." But the real money shot (or, in this case, not) arrives in Carter's set-up. Before pushing Pollyanna on stage, Carter said he "expects full-size pickup truck sales to total 1.45 million in 2008 — a significant drop from last year's sales of 2.14 million units." Significant is just a word (as is "word"). As for that eventual, arguably-timed pickup pickup, Carter's "not sure what will happen to what he calls the 'recreational user' of pickup trucks — the weekend warrior who uses his pickup to tow a boat or pickup a grill at Home Depot." Uh, if that "non-core" but still sizable demographic doesn't return, what kind of recovery is he talking about? Semi, demi or quasi? Make mine non-fat.  

The Detroit News reports that The People's Republic has a new strategy to combat air pollution: tax the shit out of large cars [paraphrasing]. "The tax on passenger vehicles with engines bigger than 4 liters will be doubled to 40 percent from 20 percent, effective Sept. 1, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday in a statement on its Web site. Those buying vehicles with engines sized from 2 liters up to 4 liters will have to pay a 25 percent tax, up from the current 15 percent, it said." So, Buick's big barges get blasted. Ditto Ford's Chinese Volvos and Lincolns. OK, so both companies sell small cars in China as well, as part of their [mandatory] joint ventures. Only just-auto [sub] reports China's new car market has hit the skids. July sales fell 17 percent. "The Chinese vehicle market has cooled this year under the combined influences of higher inflation (reducing consumers' disposable income), increased petrol prices, the effects of the Sichuan earthquake and generally lower consumer confidence (stock markets are down)." Things don't look so bad year-to-date, but the domestics' Chinese bright spot won't be shining a ray of sunshine on next quarter's financials. Beyond that, the threat of official action to tamp-down the JVs to help the home team looms large. [thanks to autoacct628 for the link]

If you live in Massachusetts, and you're among the roughly one in a million Americans that drives a hydrogen-powered car, you can refuel it without crossing state lines. The The Lowell Sun reports that PowerTap in Billerica, near Boston, is now open for biz, courtesy of Nuvera Fuel Cells. The hydrogen station opened just in time to replenish a parade of H-powered cars on a 13-day cross-country cavalcade from Portland, Maine to LA. The cross-country parade included a Honda Clarity, VW Tiguan, Toyota Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicle, Nissan X-Trail, Merc S-Cell and BMW H7. Speaking to your intrepid reporter, the Director of Technology and Communications for the National Hydrogen Association revealed that these and other H-powered vehicles can fill-up at 62 stations nationwide (25 in California, 'natch). Serfass also proudly pointed out that the hydrogen provided by these stations is produced entirely via renewable energy or natural gas, although he doesn't know what percentage comes from which source.

We have it from an insider that the bankrupt parts supplier Delphi is about to "downsize" its domestic ops. Not that it'll do them much good. Now that Appaloosa Investments and Friends bailed-out of Delphi's bail-out plan, the former GM division is on its last life. Although Delphi's suing its jilters, what are the odds that a judge can/will force Appaloosa to fork over the billions the money men didn't leave on the table? At best, more money will be lost on lawyers, all 'round. All of which means a Delphi Chapter 7 is just over the event horizon. GM will have to buy up (back) the Delphi bits it needs to keep building vehicles. And as GM's August 8th SEC filing points out, "In addition the Benefit Guarantees may be triggered which would result in additional liabilities to us. We may also be subject to additional litigation regarding Delphi." The flames of GM's cash conflagration continue… [thanks to you-know-who-you-are for the tip]