Automotive News [AN, sub] brings news from the Traverse City auto-exec seminary. Only their headline news is not the real news. AN proclaims "Toyota exec says pickup market will recover." And indeed Robert Carter does just that, in a distinctly vague, Detroit-like way. "We are absolutely confident that the recovery will take place," the GM of ToMoCo USA says, confidently. "It's just arguable when." But the real money shot (or, in this case, not) arrives in Carter's set-up. Before pushing Pollyanna on stage, Carter said he "expects full-size pickup truck sales to total 1.45 million in 2008 — a significant drop from last year's sales of 2.14 million units." Significant is just a word (as is "word"). As for that eventual, arguably-timed pickup pickup, Carter's "not sure what will happen to what he calls the 'recreational user' of pickup trucks — the weekend warrior who uses his pickup to tow a boat or pickup a grill at Home Depot." Uh, if that "non-core" but still sizable demographic doesn't return, what kind of recovery is he talking about? Semi, demi or quasi? Make mine non-fat.
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Is he trying to justify the expense in selling the new Tacoma and building the San Antonio plant? He might be trying to combat those who say it was a huge mistake by Toyota.
The weekend warriors will still want to have the truck. The difference is that the truck will not be the daily driver as had been the case. The truck will only be used when towing the boat or moving friends. Because of that, the truck will be used for a longer period of time before a newer one is purchased.
I think they have a lot more to worry about than only loosing the ‘recreational user’. I would expect commercial users to start bailing big time on full size trucks as soon as viable more fuel efficient commercial alternatives like the Ford Transit Connect hit the market.
I have to say that the rock bottom prices on trucks these days has me tempted to pick up a V6 Tacoma or Tundra. There are times that I do need a truck, and will need a truck in the future. If I can snag a new or slightly used one for $15k, I’d basically get a great deal on the last truck I’d ever have to buy. I’m sure I’d only put 3k miles or so on it each year, but I would have a truck I could get 20 years out of. When you break it down like that, it really doesn’t seem like much of an investment for a tool. I have good fuel efficient hatchbacks that I love driving daily (GTI & MCS). Gas mileage doesn’t matter when you are only putting 3k miles/year on it…
The wife would never go for it, though.
Is anyone really selling new pickups for $15? I’ve seen the occasional Mitsubishi Raider for circa $20 but unless the market has bottomed worse than i’m aware of, $15 is still used-sedan territory.
The truck market will recover in a big way like all cars will. The population is growing. We’ll be up to 20 million cars a year sold by 2012.
PunkViper:
You can get a no frills 4Cyl, 5M Tacoma or Ranger for 15k.
Because of that, the truck will be used for a longer period of time before a newer one is purchased.
That perfectly describes the 2007 Silverado Diesel in my driveway with about 10,000 miles. It has made a dozen trips to Home Depot/Lowe’s and otherwise has had my Airstream in tow for practically every mile I have ever driven it. Unles someone runs into me, I figure that it will outlast my towing days.
I think it’s safe to assume Toyota’s San Antonio employees will still be at it for many years to come, building something, though not necessarily Tundras.
And if they’re the last full-size pickup manufacturer in North America, their decision to build the plant will be validated, albeit belatedly.
Over at carsdirect.com they are quoting a brand new base Ford F150 at $14,670, a base Silverado at $14,699 and a base Tundra (which is much better equipped option wise than the base Ford or Chevy models) at $16,734.
If you really need a new pick ’em up, now is a great time to buy.
Davey,
Unless gas drops to $2.00 a gallon again the truck market will not recover to the numbers it was at over the last 10 years.
Is anyone really selling new pickups for $15?
Around Columbus I have seen $11-13 prices advertised.
John
Not all manufacturers will fall badly. The larger daily construction trucks are largely leased and will need to be replaced.
Not real trucks.
Just Toyotas and Nissans….
There are areas of current commercial use where pickups are unnecessary. The local Dominos Pizza, for example, uses pickup trucks by the pizzas go in the passenger seat–any 2-seat small car would work just fine.
There are areas of current commercial use where such large and capable pickups are unnecessary. Not everyone needs 200+ horsepower, 8 inches of ground clearance, and a vehicle weighing more than 4000 pounds.
Um, there’s a reason they use small trucks instead of cars.
They can’t carry unauthorized passengers when they’re carrying pizzas?
Some drivers double as cabbies if they drove cars…
And they have frames and are much more durable.