The Volt PR drip-feed continues. The Hail Mary's Design Director hung with his homies in Traverse City (rated E for everyone), then jumped into GM's FastLane to release some teaser pics and say absolutely nothing ("The Chevrolet Volt’s exterior design is an attractive balance between aerodynamic performance and styling.") The Volt's Chief Engineer was more forthcoming– and forthright. Andrew Farrah tells the AP [via Autonet] that "GM workers are testing batteries to make sure they last at least 10 years or 150,000 miles. It would cost more than $10,000 to replace them." The batteries or the engineers? Anyway, "The Volt also is going through the same design issues as a new car powered by a conventional engine, Farah said. 'The program has all of those same things built in. We're just doing them faster because we have to.'" How reassuring is that?
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“testing batteries to make sure they last at least 10 years”
Except of course, that isn’t really possible. Until ten years pass, of course. Everything else is “best guess using lab-condition accelerated simulations”
Might be safe to assume five years, and then hope for the best, eh? Call me cynical.
The Volt news drove GM shares up a buck at noon today.150 MPG? Oh yeah! that will grab some positive headlines{for a change}
Classic Corporate goal setting at its finest –
The top dogs set an absolute deadline and announced it to the public figuring it would force the engineers to push the program through the bureaucracy and ‘get ‘er done!’.
I see this all the time at work…. including the fact that the top dogs don’t know anything about engineering, let alone scientific research.
So, right now, the Volt looks line another classic embarrassment in the brewing for GM.
The Vega with those revolutionary aluminum engines without sleeves – the X cars with their bad brakes – the beauty that was Aztek (another ‘get ‘er done!’ project that came out well).
I think that this do-or-die approach is going to end badly as usual, and very badly in particular this time.
Suppose you built a revolutionary car that was too expensive, that not many people bought, and that died a premature, expensive death in the hands of those who screwed up and trusted GM – again.
Looks like they got more realistic with the rim size.
“But the 47-year-old veteran GM engineer who was recruited from a GM post in Germany to run the high-profile project is driven by knowing the entire company’s future could rest on it. ”
If the entire compay’s future depends on the Volt GM is screwed. 40 mile range on 400lbs of batteries, and it’ll be bigger than a Civic. So that means it’ll weigh at least 3000lbs, if not more ?. How’s that 40 mile range going to be in winter, or with passengers on board ?. Who’s going to buy an economy car at $30-$40,000 ?. What kind of high tech materials are they using to keep weight down ?. How about aerodynamics and rolling resistance ?. What outside firms do they have doing all the development work for them this time ?. No word on the electric motor size, or the engine size ?.
It seems that the goal is to make cars as disposable as laptops … but more expensive.
If the battery pack fails in 10 years and costs $10k to replace then the car is going to be scrapped. Ten year old cars which need new engines or transmissions are often scrapped because nobody wants to spend $2-$5k fixing them. A $10k battery pack?
I would bet that the total cost of ownership for a Volt over a 10 year lifespan, including fuel, is going to be higher than for a comparable capability vehicle built with less agressive technology.
GM seems addicted to Hail Mary corporate planning.
Remember the Saturn Experiment? Yep, that was a Hail Mary. Vega … yep. New GTO … uh, huh. Diesel V8, Caddy 4/6/8, Corvair, GM Rotary (killed before release, but after spending a fortune), buying EDS (later sold off), buying Hughes (sold), EV1, Hywire Hydrogen Prototype … the list goes on and on.
One of the big problems is that the people at the top do not have the science or engineering background to understand what is possible OR to have developed the habit of rigorous thought.
No one, including Volt battery suppliers (when named) knows what a battery pack for the car will cost 10 years out from intro. If the Volt succeeds or the category of lithium-ion-powered electric or hybrid cars takes off, the economies of scale will surely erode the consumer cost of the replacement batteries. If the category stalls and lithium ion proves too difficult for mobile automotive use, the unit price on battery packs is likely to stay high or yield to an alternative battery chemistry.
Let’s presume over 10 years there will be considerable progress on lithium ion battery chemistry and the unit cost of volume production will decline. This alarmism over a 10 year battery’s replacement cost is just conjecture — i.e. a guess — at the moment. History suggests it will be much less.
Phil
Phil, Do you mean cheaper like Oil will be in 10 years?
Lithium is a limited resource. In 10 years we will probably be watching the cost of lithium sky-rocket.
There may be some drop in battery prices with a chemistry change, but under $5000 for this battery capacity even in 10 years is unlikely.
It will be the equivalent of putting a brand new motor in a 10 year old car. In 10 years electric cars won’t be a novelty anymore, so putting the money into an old Volt won’t seem like such a great idea.
To Bob, we already know that the $40,000+ volt is no longer a competitor for prius II which comes out before the volt (january 09). With a $15000 extra price tag just this number won’t pay for any extra fuel it may save. And then it comes to fuel savings and range.
The volt will circle at a constant speed on the level test track and show who knows the mpg. But where I and many other Americans live you are either going up or down hills constantly. The local golf courses cannot use the Fl. and Ca. friendly electric golf carts. They need to buy gas because of the torque and a golf pro said the ability to go two rounds of an 18 hole golf course without a charge.
The smallest gas engine will with good gearing not miss a beat on hills just either auto or manually downshift one or two gears. This is where the juice pull (amps) from batteries along with a reduction in torque is so evident in electric vehicles. Even better, a little turbo-diesel seems to want to dig into hills and use it’s 23/1 compression ratio to it’s fullest.
The hybrid recognized this deficiency in electric vehicles and uses the gas engine to do what I described above. When it’s all electric there is still no technology that will match the torque of an internal combustion engine and be light enough to power a car.
So I say bring the Volt to Northeast Pa. (sometime after 2011?) and let’s put it on a real test of endurance.
I guess what worries me about the Volt is GM’s choice of a “serial hybrid” scheme, which relies heavily on the robustness of the battery pack. The Prius’ system can probably be adapted to different battery chemistries/capacities very easily, as long as the output voltage is within requirements.
jerry weber :
So I say bring the Volt to Northeast Pa. (sometime after 2011?) and let’s put it on a real test of endurance.
Very well spoken Jerry!!
I say bring it to Southwestern Pa (the bastard child of PA) and let’s give a go. The 2 mile crawl to get through the tunnels to get into the city every day for a year should be a good test.
Lithium is a limited resource. In 10 years we will probably be watching the cost of lithium sky-rocket
Lithium batteries are recyclable, albeit with an energy cost. Burned petroleum is not.
That doesn’t look like a photo to me, more like CGI. And whats the deal with those little LED lights in the front bumper, they aren’t turn signals, and don’t look like they would do much as fog lamps, looks like a neon strip.
The arguement over the batteries after 10 years is kind of premature. GM is going to sell the first years units no problem, for no profit, provided they get it out and are still in business at the time. The real question is will the car last those 10 years and I’m not talking about the batteries. I see major electrical system problems and durability problems before it reaches 10 years. GM doesn’t have a good track record, and this fast tracking means even more corner cutting to get it out on time. They can’t even build PCM’s for normal cars that are durable for the life of the car, the Volt is 100 times more complex.
I don’t see GM continually developing and addressing issues after that car is released when they aren’t seeing a profit on it, and start to lose money when the warranty claims start pouring in. They have done this many times in the past and present, why would the Volt be any different.
To paraphrase mel23, GM is really starting to “juggle the cowchips” now. They dont know when the camaro will hit the showrooms, but they know the battery cost in 2018 (8 years after the mystical year of 2010). On an upbeat note, I did see my first hybrid Tahoe. Really . Honest. On rt. 295 north at rt. 70 in Cherry Hill NJ. It did, however have Michigan tags. The hybrid banner under the beltline looks oh-so-stupid in person. Are we sure gm installs this and its not purchased from pep boys or autozone?
Brilliant for GM – in order to build in an excuse to not meet the 2010 deadline for the car but for 2017 instead (that 10 year battery test time frame). I better put down my deposit with the other 33k people.
All the while the Prius Gen 3 and Honda’s new low priced (~$20k) core hybrid will be selling 100k+ per year. Plus the other many hybrids they offer with their other vehicles.
Hey Barrack
How many of my tax dollars will be spent subsidizing each unit to make the cost of ownership appear to be as affordable as buying a Civic?
The Volt like everything at GM these days is all show no go. Gm keeps pumping the hype about their all electric car but reveals little about the actual nuts and bolts. Are they afraid that Toyota will steal their ideas? I suspect there are still some big engineering hurdles to overcome and so all you see is glimpses of the body and pie-in-the-sky performance figures. As to battery replacement after 10 years, ain’t gonna happen. This car will be disposable, with no resale value after 5-8 years. Considering that many cars are still on the road after 15-20 years why would you fork out $40,000 for something that lasts half that long.
Phil, Do you mean cheaper like Oil will be in 10 years?
Oil may be cheaper in 10 years than it is now, in real terms. That happened between 1981 and 1991, for instance. There are many ways to measure expense. For example, when factoring in disposable income to determine affordability, gasoline in the US today is more affordable than it was in the early 1960s.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-goklany11-2008aug11,0,3798951.story
I’m not worried about the cost of oil in 10 years. We’re not running out, and there will be more alternatives in ten years than there are today.
Lithium is a limited resource. In 10 years we will probably be watching the cost of lithium sky-rocket.
Lithium doesn’t have to get cheaper over time for the batteries made from it to get cheaper. In fact it can get more expensive while the batteries get cheaper in real terms. The commodities costs in finished products commonly fluctuate while finished goods get less expensive in both real and relative terms, as manufacturing scales.
There may be some drop in battery prices with a chemistry change, but under $5000 for this battery capacity even in 10 years is unlikely.
It will be the equivalent of putting a brand new motor in a 10 year old car. In 10 years electric cars won’t be a novelty anymore, so putting the money into an old Volt won’t seem like such a great idea.
I don’t know why you think a battery pack under $5,000 is unlikely. It wasn’t long ago that lithium-ion batteries for notebook PCs were 3X what they cost now, and the new ones are both cheaper *and* better — longer lasting, more power density, more reliable (less prone to spontaneous combustion).
Today 10 year old cars retain perhaps 1/10th their new value, and people put new or rebuilt engines in them occasionally. Aggregate repairs to ten year old cars can easily equal the cost of an engine. The nature of repair to a 10 year old electric car may be quite different than with an ICE car, particularly given there will be much less aging on the “dirty” technologies in an electric car with a gasoline mobile electric generating system, compared to a mechanical drivetrain petrol fueled car. As with Prius advocates who turn away criticism of that car’s battery replacement costs, properly noting that the battery lasts longer than feared, with a declining replacement price, Volt owners aren’t going to worry about this.
Phil
Never mind the Volt, I can’t get past Russ Meyer reference.
Phil Ressler: “Let’s presume over 10 years there will be considerable progress on lithium ion battery chemistry and the unit cost of volume production will decline. This alarmism over a 10 year battery’s replacement cost is just conjecture — i.e. a guess — at the moment. History suggests it will be much less.”
If you presume arbitrary conditions, you can draw any conclusions you like. However, you’ll have to return to the real world to sell and support cars.
While I think it likely that the batteries will go the distance, we still can’t make that assumption. And a buyer would be a fool to do so.
What will GM’s confidence be? How will they express that confidence? One of their suits recently talked about testing the battery, in a two-year span, to ensure a ten year life and then, in the same sentence he said they would be making the warranty appropriate but did not specifically say the warranty would cover the battery for ten years. That’s fairly weaselly and you know exactly why.
If the battery life turns out to be 5 years, someone, either the consumer or GM, is facing a $2K/year operating cost in batteries alone (enough to drive a Prius 18K miles/year with gas at $5/gallon). GM doesn’t want that cost and the customer surely is not anxious for it, either.
Further, after we set a time horizon for the warranty, what does an appropriate warranty mean? We know that the NiMH in the Prius does its job for a number of years. However, there is some thought that its capacity does gradually decline and the early Priora are now running about with batteries that are significantly degraded. If so, it appears this makes little difference in the operation of the Prius and owners remain happy. Therefore, few warranty claims and no bad press.
Fast-forward to the Volt, with a new battery chemistry. Over the course of the real battery life, capacity decreases and electric range (which is why people buy this car) declines gradually. Say this happens by year 7.75 and the warranty is an 8 year warranty. What happens? Does GM replace the battery? Offer the customer a pro-rated replacement? Ignore the situation altogether, pointing out that electric range and certain other specifications were “notional?” What if it declines to 20 miles in 8 years? What if the decline becomes more pronounced with increasing age? Who, exactly, is on the hook for how much?
There are certainly unkowns here: the car is heavily dependent on the battery capacity, the battery can’t be tested to the design life in calendar years and GM has a good track record for not delivering value to the customer when the chips are down.
I certainly wouldn’t buy a Volt hoping that decreases in battery cost over the next 5 to 10 years are going to pull my chestnuts out of the fire if the battery life turns out to be short.
—
Here’s a thought… inspired by real-life stories from GM customers…
Let’s say the battery capacity does gradually decline (this is almost surely the case). However, GM (like Toyota) does charge management, keeping the charge between 30 and 80%.
However, if battery capacity declines, what might GM do about that? To avoid warranty claims inside the warranty period… suppose GM’s software starts using more of the battery? Increasing the charge parameters to 25/85, then 20/90, then 10/100 to avoid a warranty call inside the warranty window?
If they can skate you through the warranty, your car ends the warranty period doing the 40 miles but will be running on a battery that’s basically being abused… Range is going to drop like a rock. But… that didn’t happen inside the warranty period.
What will GM’s confidence be? How will they express that confidence? One of their suits recently talked about testing the battery, in a two-year span, to ensure a ten year life and then, in the same sentence he said they would be making the warranty appropriate but did not specifically say the warranty would cover the battery for ten years. That’s fairly weaselly and you know exactly why.
While a ten year warranty’s marketing value is obvious, I see no reason whatsoever consumers should expect a ten year warranty on an electric car’s battery back, nor why any automaker should offer one. With the exception of marketing purposes for brands that have been either distressed or desperate to elbow into the market, we don’t have that kind of warranty coverage on conventional drivetrains. Batteries are going to degrade, and they are going to do so at different rates under different conditions. Software control of charge/discharge mitigates the variability of degradation. But this is going to be a fact of life for electric cars for quite some time. It’s OK with me.
While I think it likely that the batteries will go the distance, we still can’t make that assumption. And a buyer would be a fool to do so.
Well, if you think the batteries are likely to go the distance, then you’re not going to worry about it. Just as Prius is and has been a niche car appealing to most of its buyers for reasons other than strict end-to-end economics, same will be true for buyers of true electric cars from any maker for the early-adoption phase. If you fear what *might* happen relative to owning a known quantity like a Civic or Malibu, then you’re going to stick with the ICE option that seems safe and predictable. So be it. Volt buyers, or buyers of Mitsubishi electric cars, are going to ignore these fears of battery replacement costs. Mainstream buyers will come in as the early adopters break down their fear of the unknown.
I’m fully confident the Volt’s replacement battery pack won’t cost 10,000 2008 dollars when it’s needed, and I’ve no fear of what that cost might be. Every battery type has gotten progressively cheaper in every other application, over the past 20 years.
Phil
KixStart: If you presume arbitrary conditions, you can draw any conclusions you like.
Phil Ressler’s ‘conditions’ (as he has given them, above) are not unreasonable in the slightest. Indeed, them not coming to pass will be all the more remarkable, as such an outcome will be at odds with observed history.
the battery can’t be tested to the design life in calendar years
So what? Here is how you can get a simple estimate of the lifespan of a battery:
Begin with fresh battery. Capacity is 1.
Drive the PHEV for a year.
Measure battery capacity. Capacity is now E.
Extrapolate: battery will be kaput in 1/(1-E) years.
So if E is 0.9 after one year, 1/(1-0.9) == 10 years, at least under the conditions it was driven under. Better estimates will not fit straight lines like this but model the battery from basic chemical principles. Even better still would be to have many batteries simultaneously tested under difference conditions (hard driving, casual driving, up hills, down hills, on a race track, and even parked for the entire year in the blazing sun of summer and cracking cold of winter).
GM has enough problems selling mechanical propulsion. I wouldn’t be confident about the destiny of the electrified versions.
If I understand Kixstart’s position, the problem for the Volt (assuming that it actually ever exists) is that it is more dependent upon its battery than is the Prius. Because of that, the wear issues associated with the battery will create a worse outcome, because of that greater dependency.
The Prius doesn’t claim that you can travel 40 miles without using gasoline nor does Toyota try to do this. The Volt does make this claim. Since the battery is so important to the Volt’s reason for existence, it’s going to really suck if the vaunted 40 mile Volt becomes a 10 mile Volt.
There are, of course, a few ardent GM defenders who will overlook the sins of the Volt (assuming that there will be a Volt to do any sinning.) As the sales figures show, there aren’t enough of these people to keep GM profitable, so the value of their devotion is limited at best.
GM needs new customers, and I don’t see where they are going to come from. They’ll be at the Toyota dealer, buying a product that they know will most likely work and will be supported in the off chance that it doesn’t.
Everytime the Volt is discussed here I come away with more of a belief that the entire projects does NOT make any sense at all!
It appears that GM is on some kind of misguided mission filled with unobtainable, unrealistic goals in an attempt to outdo the Toyota Prius.
Everything I read about the Volt highlights just how much thought Toyota put into the Prius concept from the beginning. It appears that Toyota did some really deep research into the viablities of serveral different drivetrain concepts including diesel and have successfully arrived at what is the best fit for TODAYS current road transportation infrastruture. The Prius is a brilliant concept that can be built for a reasonable price and does not force the owner to change or adjust their day to day routine in anyway. The owner simply visits ANY gas station they want less frequently. No need to worry about forgetting to charge, no need to wait for the charge to complete, no need to worry about being close enough to a power outlet.
The battery pack is made of tried and true technology and is also a cost and resource effective solution. Unlike diesel powered cars no waiting to fill up at the sole diesel pump at your local station.
Toyota is not foolish they appear to understand that the battery (the key componet of the hybrid drivetrian)MUST be affrodable enough to replace, hence why they are sticking with their Nickel battery in the next version.
With the Volt it appears that GM is trying to achive to much at once with their first shot and have the nerve to be in a rush with a bunch of unproven tech!
Also, what is the big deal about a 40 mile battery driving range and how much of your auto fuel expense are you simply transfering to your home electric bill? Aint nothing free in this world!
The joke is that they are advertising the Volt as if they have already worked out these PROJECT KILLING details.
GOOD FREAKIN LUCK!
“While a ten year warranty’s marketing value is obvious, I see no reason whatsoever consumers should expect a ten year warranty on an electric car’s battery back, nor why any automaker should offer one. With the exception of marketing purposes for brands that have been either distressed or desperate to elbow into the market, we don’t have that kind of warranty coverage on conventional drivetrains.”
I think that you’ve identified the problem for GM – people are cautious about the potential problem of battery life. Battery driven cars are not convential drivetrains. The expectations for convential drivetrains are known. The best you can say is that the expectations for Batteries are not know. The battery-driven cars that have been on the market in the past haven’t had great battery life – and the Prius’ battery life et al is still unknown.
Are consumers really going to trust that a battery -that doesn’t exist yet, mind you- is going to last 10 years based on a 2 year test by a company with a vested interest in saying that it WILL last? I suspect not, or at least not in great numbers.
It’s the Lucy and Charlie Brown football problem for GM. As I stated above, GM’s new technology track record ain’t so great. Your faith in the life-span of a still undeveloped technology is (insert adjective expressing awe and wonder here). Perhaps I’ve a cynic, but when it’s my money I’m not betting on GM’s unproven battery technology.
The (gonna-be) Volt is going up against Japanese cars…. which are now (comparatively) proven technology, and which are cheaper. That’s the safe bet, and I believe people with take the safer bet and the $10K initial cost savings that comes with it.
Further, noting the ‘Pennsylvania problem’ noted above regarding hilly country in the north, we in the south face the ‘Savannah situation’ – that is that 80 percent of the year we need to have the air conditioning working. That is generally going going to require running the gasoline engine or putting a severe strain on the batteries.
whatdoiknow1: With the Volt it appears that GM is trying to achive to much at once with their first shot and have the nerve to be in a rush with a bunch of unproven tech!
“New and stirring things are belittled because if they are not belittled, the humiliating question arises, ‘Why then are you not taking part in them?\'” – H. G. Wells
“New and stirring things are belittled because if they are not belittled, the humiliating question arises, ‘Why then are you not taking part in them?’”
I don’t think that the Volt will be terribly “stirring” (at least in a good way) if it doesn’t work as promised.
Consumers won’t want to use their own hard earned money to beta test a rolling R&D project, they will want something that works as advertised straight out of the box.
It sounds to me that in an effort to claim some sort of promise, GM has given short shrift to the weakest link in this chain, namely the battery. That would be a bad thing, decidedly not stirring, and worthy of belittling.
The difference between Toyota and GM is that Toyota worries about pleasing its customers with trustworthy, reliable products, while GM worries about delivering promises and quarterly numbers to Wall Street brokerages. The wrong priorities get the wrong results, just about every time.
Lokki: The battery-driven cars that have been on the market in the past haven’t had great battery life – and the Prius’ battery life et al is still unknown.
No, actually, it isn’t “unknown”:
“”The Prius battery (and the battery-power management system) has been designed to maximize battery life. In part this is done by keeping the battery at an optimum charge level – never fully draining it and never fully recharging it. As a result, the Prius battery leads a pretty easy life. We have lab data showing the equivalent of 180,000 miles with no deterioration and expect it to last the life of the vehicle. We also expect battery technology to continue to improve: the second-generation model battery is 15% smaller, 25% lighter, and has 35% more specific power than the first. This is true of price as well. Between the 2003 and 2004 models, service battery costs came down 36% and we expect them to continue to drop so that by the time replacements may be needed it won’t be a much of an issue. Since the car went on sale in 2000, Toyota has not replaced a single battery for wear and tear.”
Presumably things have only gotten better in the four years since. I dont’ see why we can not expect the same for lithium batteries.
pch101: It sounds to me that in an effort to claim some sort of promise, GM has given short shrift to the weakest link in this chain, namely the battery. That would be a bad thing, decidedly not stirring, and worthy of belittling.
According to the article Mr. Farago points us at, GM says they “are testing batteries to make sure they last at least 10 years or 150,000 miles.”
This is “short shrift”? Ignoring their customer? Pandering to “Wall Street brokerages”?
GM says they “are testing batteries to make sure they last at least 10 years or 150,000 miles.”
I know enough about GM to know that they have a propensity for exaggeration and overselling. I would never accept their bold proclamations at face value.
Much of the reason why the GM PR machine is on full spin cycle with the Volt is because of the stockholders and the analysts. Based upon the current operations and balance sheet, the company is dead — the only reason to invest in it or loan it money is because there is allegedly some hope for the future due to the Volt.
If the present circumstances were so great, GM wouldn’t have to spend so much effort to talk up products that may not see the light of day or meet expectations.
As it stands, Toyota has delayed its lithium ion Prius until 2011. If Toyota needs more time, I can’t imagine what advantage GM could possibly have.
It’s not the 10 years or 150k miles that has everbody’s panties in a bunch — it’s the $10,000 replacement cost, which is a pessimistic assumption on GM’s part; why even mention it? As has been said here, battery tech is one of the hottest fields going right now – does GM assume that they’ll be the only source for Volt batteries 10 years from now?
Dumb to mention it – I swear they’re trying to kill their child before birth (I guess it’s still legal).
The Prius is a brilliant concept that can be built for a reasonable price and does not force the owner to change or adjust their day to day routine in anyway. The owner simply visits ANY gas station they want less frequently. No need to worry about forgetting to charge, no need to wait for the charge to complete, no need to worry about being close enough to a power outlet.
The battery pack is made of tried and true technology and is also a cost and resource effective solution. Unlike diesel powered cars no waiting to fill up at the sole diesel pump at your local station.
Prius is a pragmatic concept, not a brilliant one. It’s just a conventional internal combustion engine car with electric motor assist. It’s a dead end that has some value now and awhile longer. Volt is an electric car, which means it’s a renewed design vector for which the ICE charger is expendable. The supplemental electricity source could be a fuel cell, a super-battery, super-capacitors, an LP or CNG fueled engine, etc. Volt is a start, not a finish, for an entirely new line of vehicles.
With Volt, you also don’t have to worry about being near a power outlet. If you have to go days without charging, while using the car, you’ll just use more gasoline than if you had been able to keep the battery charged.
Toyota is not foolish they appear to understand that the battery (the key componet of the hybrid drivetrian)MUST be affrodable enough to replace, hence why they are sticking with their Nickel battery in the next version.
All experiences with Li-Ion batteries to date point to declining price over time. What once was very expensive for power tools, computers, phones, etc., has become cheap. Same will happen with the Volt’s battery pack. But there’s no reason Volt can’t also be offered in a cheaper version with NiMH batteries. You’d just get less electric-only range. I’m sure there’s a market for a 10 or 15 mile electric range Volt for less. The option remains open.
Also, what is the big deal about a 40 mile battery driving range and how much of your auto fuel expense are you simply transfering to your home electric bill? Aint nothing free in this world!
Indeed. The market is created by persistent effervescent environmental concern both real and imagined, as well as chronic consumer irrationality about anything associated with gasoline.
Consumers won’t want to use their own hard earned money to beta test a rolling R&D project, they will want something that works as advertised straight out of the box.
Consumers use their hard-earned money to beta test in-market R&D all the time. Everyone who bought a $30,000 plasma TV in 1998, or a $15,000 one in 2001, or an $8,000 example in 2005 did exactly that. Everyone who bought a $1000 Sony CDP-1 CD player in 1982 did just that. Everyone who bought an early PC or first gen McIntosh, or myriad other digital products has subsidized in-the-field R&D at high prices. Early Prius and Insight, and even EV1 owners did the same. Every technology push requires this. Nothing new; behavior already established.
Phil
Prius is a pragmatic concept, not a brilliant one. It’s just a conventional internal combustion engine car with electric motor assist. It’s a dead end that has some value now and awhile longer.
That “dead end” is a real product that exists today. It has generated a million sales, with the promise of many more to follow. GM should pray that achieves “dead ends” like that.
The Volt is just a promise, and given GM’s track record, may well prove to be a broken promise. A broken promise that arrives delayed, and underperforms if/when it gets here.
With Volt, you also don’t have to worry about being near a power outlet.
You used the wrong verb tenses and forgot add qualifiers. I’ll rephrase for you: “With Volt, IF it proves to be successful (and this is GM that we’re talking about here, so it might not), you also won’t have to worry about being near a power outlet. But the Volt doesn’t exist today, so if you want a solution now, you had better buy a Prius, instead.”
Consumers use their hard-earned money to beta test in-market R&D all the time. Everyone who bought a $30,000 plasma TV in 1998, or a $15,000 one in 2001, or an $8,000 example in 2005 did exactly that
That actually proves the point. There were very few customers for these products until the prices came down and they proved themselves. The only way for those products to achieve commercial success was in achieving a point at which they could be sold in large numbers.
GM comes into the situation with a lousy brand to back a product that will cause a lot of grief if it fails to work. If a TV doesn’t work, you might miss a soap opera or a game; the stakes with a car are much higher.
That actually proves the point. There were very few customers for these products until the prices came down and they proved themselves. The only way for those products to achieve commercial success was in achieving a point at which they could be sold in large numbers.
And this is the way new markets work for new products. Early plasma TVs sold in the tens of thousands and now they sell by the millions. Same with early personal computers, DVD, CD, etc. In cars, new technologies like rotary power, GPS navigation, paddle shifting, hybrid powertrains including the Prius itself, etc. all leveraged the same market dynamics of sliver start by early adopters, with market penetration expanding after.
A short-range Volt could be on the market today if there were no specific objectives on battery-powered range. The architecture can be supported with existing battery chemistry. GM, rightly or wrongly, has chosen to do something more ambitious, but a lesser-battery-range car is always an option.
Phil
The back-up plan for the Volt could be as a throwaway from GM in order to make new CAFE regulations. The driving cycle for the EPA mileage testing could be done on a 40 mile battery, giving the Volt a really really high mileage rating in order to offset the rest of the fleet. You could drop the battery rating to 20 miles for a cheaper purchase price and still make a good dent in EPA mileage, especially if the backup is a really tiny gas engine.
KixStart :
Here’s a thought… inspired by real-life stories from GM customers…
Let’s say the battery capacity does gradually decline (this is almost surely the case). However, GM (like Toyota) does charge management, keeping the charge between 30 and 80%.
However, if battery capacity declines, what might GM do about that? To avoid warranty claims inside the warranty period… suppose GM’s software starts using more of the battery? Increasing the charge parameters to 25/85, then 20/90, then 10/100 to avoid a warranty call inside the warranty window?
If they can skate you through the warranty, your car ends the warranty period doing the 40 miles but will be running on a battery that’s basically being abused… Range is going to drop like a rock. But… that didn’t happen inside the warranty period.
Oh man oh man oh man, I think you’ve hit on it. This is exactly what GM will do. I’m sure of it, absolutely positively certain, and you know why?
Because the consumer may well be unable to prove such fraud.
Oh man oh man oh man, I think you’ve hit on it. This is exactly what GM will do. I’m sure of it, absolutely positively certain, and you know why?
Because the consumer may well be unable to prove such fraud.
Except it wouldn’t be fraud; not in the least. In fact, it is not only entirely acceptable for GM’s software to progressively widen the use of the battery capacity on tap, it’s the right thing to do. If there’s, say, an eight year warranty period on the battery, fine.
Batteries are consumables, just like tires, fuel and lubrication. The motive force generator, the electric motor(s) should have very long life and be quite repairable for small money compared to an internal combustion engine. Managing the battery to be reliable through a reasonably extended warranty period is perfectly reasonable. Battery prices will decline, as they have in every other sector with volume demand, and there will be sources other than the automaker. Consumers should not expect any electric car to never need a battery replacement on their dime, if they keep the car beyond the warranty period. Batteries are consumables.
Phil
Normal batteries (the 12 volt thing in every vehicle made in the last fifty years) are consumables. Hybrid batteries are not; they should last the life of the car and be replaced as often as an engine or a transmission; that is, close to never.
This is what the battery in the Prius is considered; it is warranteed to last for eight years and 100,000 miles and probably will last for a quarter million miles or more. The Volt basically has to match or exceed that.
Except it wouldn’t be fraud; not in the least. In fact, it is not only entirely acceptable for GM’s software to progressively widen the use of the battery capacity on tap, it’s the right thing to do. If there’s, say, an eight year warranty period on the battery, fine.
Batteries are consumables, just like tires, fuel and lubrication. The motive force generator, the electric motor(s) should have very long life and be quite repairable for small money compared to an internal combustion engine. Managing the battery to be reliable through a reasonably extended warranty period is perfectly reasonable.
That’s a good representation of the can’t-do attitude that put GM in the (bad) place that it is in today. If you need to find excuses to not serve the customer, then don’t be surprised when the customer doesn’t serve you.
If you honestly believe that a $10,000 component is a “consumable,” then I’d suggest that you aren’t in tune with the needs of the consumer.
The upside is that this outlook could land you a senior management job at Ren Cen. You’ll undoubtedly find many at that level of the organization who agree with you.
That’s a good representation of the can’t-do attitude that put GM in the (bad) place that it is in today. If you need to find excuses to not serve the customer, then don’t be surprised when the customer doesn’t serve you.
It’s not an excuse not to serve the customer. Batteries are consumables. Everything you own with a battery consumes them over some timetable. Someone else offered that the Prius battery pack is warrantied for 8 years / 100,000 miles. The “will probably last for a quarter million miles” is highly uncertain and variable. Additionally, in a Prius, the battery pack is only powering electric assist. The car is primarily a gasoline engine car. Its battery pack only uses the middle 50% of its capacity.
In the Volt, the battery is both buffer and power storage for the primary motive force. If it performs under warranty for 8 years /100,000 miles and the computer is progressively widening the useful capacity of the battery pack, that’s OK. In practical use, my experience with Li-ion batteries is quite positive in this respect, except for in Apple products. I fully charge them and I run them quite low before I recharge. On batteries having essentially no warranty, performance doesn’t fall off a cliff. Li-ion in practical use is much more accommodating to user disinterest than NiMH.
If you honestly believe that a $10,000 component is a “consumable,” then I’d suggest that you aren’t in tune with the needs of the consumer.
Nothing in the real world of established history of battery economics suggests the Volt’s battery pack will be anywhere close to $10,000 by the time replacement is needed. I have absolutely no fear that the tab will be $10,000, nor that these batteries will suddenly fail shortly after the warranty expires.
The electric car is going to introduce more of what we see in the digital products realm, in terms of performance improvement curve and frequency of revision for introducing real improvements. In this respect getting into the market is vital, and early adopters will instigate the product improvement cycle that makes your battery replacement fears melt away. People who fear transition will conservatively stick with older technology. People who don’t mind using their own money to help move things along will leap into the Volt. There are always early adopters who accept the risks alerted by Chicken Littles and Luddites, knowing they are nearly always exaggerated.
Phil
Nothing in the real world of established history of battery economics suggests the Volt’s battery pack will be anywhere close to $10,000 by the time replacement is needed.
In that case, GM should have no problem with offering a price guarantee coupled with the warranty.
Consumers are increasingly unwilling to subsidize GM’s mistakes. They make that reluctance clear by buying other products instead. If GM can’t figure that out by now, then the company deserves to fail.
If you think that your cash alone is enough to save GM — and it had better be, because there aren’t many like you — I’d think again. You are a part of a tiny minority of consumers who will elevate brand loyalty above self preservation, something that very few people are willing to do.
If you think that your cash alone is enough to save GM — and it had better be, because there aren’t many like you — I’d think again. You are a part of a tiny minority of consumers who will elevate brand loyalty above self preservation, something that very few people are willing to do.
If there’s any carmaker I have brand loyalty to, it’s Ford. I bought ten Fords in 20 years. I don’t have brand loyalty to GM, though I like current Cadillacs, and the Corvette retains my interest. I do have a willingness to back ideas in execution, and I also include the larger social context in determining who gets my money on major purchases, which includes cars and influences my willingness to spend money with GM when they offer a quality product that meets my desires and / or needs. “Self-preservation” nearly mandates that I buy from GM or Ford, if you think of it that way. There is total alignment of my interests with theirs, if self-preservation is the criterion for selection.
GM sells to millions. Their customer base is not the “few,” it’s comprised of many. Volt offers a way to get more over an extended product evolution path that brings true electric cars to the mainstream. We’ll see how it turns out but the mythical $10,000 battery won’t be an obstacle.
Phil
The batteries being sampled are not high-volume production batteries. All kinds of interesting problems could come along when they try to speed up/cost-cut the process. The battery you buy down the road might be cheaper (might not) and might be more reliable (might not).
And none of the long-term testing is being done on production batteries. Remeber the recent snafu with GM’s battery supplier for their whybrids?
To put the battery risk into perspective, the battery costs more than a conventional engine AND transmission. Do we say the “life” of those components is 10 years? Is the “life” of a car 10 years? Do we repair a car that needs BOTH engine and transmission replaced? Or do we junk it?
Ressler: “Nothing in the real world of established history of battery economics suggests the Volt’s battery pack will be anywhere close to $10,000 by the time replacement is needed.”
And nothing guarantees it won’t still be $10K.
You can pump all the sunshine you like, Ressler, but GM’s using unproven and expensive tech in a far more critical role than ever before. Many people will be, justifiably, leery.
“You can pump all the sunshine you like, Ressler, but GM’s using unproven and expensive tech in a far more critical role than ever before.”
I hope so! It’s a new car architecture for most people; a new design vector in the modern era. Expensive tech is OK — it *will* get cheaper. Unproven is an overstatement. GM has electric car experience in the field. Years, not months. Battery chemistry is proven in small applications; now we have a matter of scale and automotive conditions. No matter how perfect Volt — or any other electric car by anyone else — may be on debut, the learning curve begins in market. It doesn’t matter if Toyota sells more older tech Prius for awhile. There are other ways to combat that. Volt is a new direction wherein the delta between what was and what will be becomes obvious in a few short years.
Phil
Ressler: “It doesn’t matter if Toyota sells more older tech Prius for awhile. There are other ways to combat that.”
Yeah? Which way is GM planning to combat that? Send in the Silverados? I don’t suppose you’ve noticed that GM does not have a product to combat that? The closest thing they’ll have to it, someday, is the Volt… available in quantity at reasonable manufacturing cost in 2015 or so.
—
In Volt Implosion Watch 75, our attention was turned to “213Cobra” a/k/a Ressler’s discussion of the XLR-V.
I find it amusing that, in his long-winded initial refutation of the review, Ressler wrote, “that said, part of the luxury experience is never having to worry.”
And over here we are talking about worry. The worries of the middle classes. But a $10K part, critical, untested, in a vehicle that Ressler has previously assured us is’t particularly up-market… No one will worry about it? Or it’s not worth worrying about? No worries, mate? It’s just $10K, pal, and probably less when you need one… Nothing to see here, move along, now?
Or is lack of worry only for the luxury buyers? Should those of us in mainstream cars accept worry as a normal part of automotive life?
Well… this is why GM’s on the ropes… people have found out that worry is NOT a normal part of automotive life with other manufacturers. There are manufacturers that deliver solid, long-term, reliable value.
And they are ascendant and GM is running a single Hail Mary play in the waning moments of the 4th quarter… when they’re 35 points down.
The closest thing they’ll have to it, someday, is the Volt… available in quantity at reasonable manufacturing cost in 2015 or so.
A gasoline engine car with electric assist will not win all economy car buyers. High mileage gasoline and diesel engine cars can and will be effective alternatives to Prius. GM can bring more small cars to market in the next 4 – 5 years during the Volt ramp-up.
And over here we are talking about worry. The worries of the middle classes. But a $10K part, critical, untested, in a vehicle that Ressler has previously assured us isn’t particularly up-market… No one will worry about it? Or it’s not worth worrying about? No worries, mate? It’s just $10K, pal, and probably less when you need one… Nothing to see here, move along, now?
Right, your worry is overblown. GM had an enthusiastic following for the EV-1, a vehicle that could have posed nothing but worry. Volt will have more range, more space, more utility and its battery pack will come with a warranty. It will be schematically less complex than a mechanical ICE / electric assist car that offers no real alternative in future direction.
It’s clear from GM’s own plans that Volt is important as a platform that can underpin a wide variety of automotive products, but the Volt car itself is not a bet-the-company proposition. When it is introduced, millions of trucks will still be sold in the US. Sedans, wagons, sports cars and even SUVs will remain in the mix. If the version 1.0 of the battery makes it just past the warranty period, subsequent versions will already be on the market having solved such a problem before that initial model’s warranty period is exceeded. Once people fully understand the implications of electric cars with extensive range all this pre-product hand-wringing by critics of Volt will look petty and foolish. Let them build the car and see how it plays out in the market of money, customers, ideas and product.
Or is lack of worry only for the luxury buyers? Should those of us in mainstream cars accept worry as a normal part of automotive life?
Well, there’s a certain amount of worry mainstream buyers accept. Luxury cars often have longer or more comprehensive warranties. Luxury cars are more apt to have run-flat tires. Luxury cars got tech items like navigation and OnStar first. Electric starters and automatic transmissions. Luxury cars got 100,000 mile maintenance-free engines before mass market cars. They get better brakes and more competent handling. Luxury cars got traction control early, platinum spark plugs, and anti-rollover protections; airbags, xenon, light pipe, LED and steerable headlights, magneto-rheological damping, etc. before mainstream cars. All of these developments reduced worry for luxury car buyers relative to the mainstream at point of introduction.
There are manufacturers that deliver solid, long-term, reliable value.
As has been my unbroken experience with Ford and GM products for 25 years.
GM is running a single Hail Mary play
Volt is not a Hail Mary. It’s a bold initiative to field a new technical direction for continued evolution of the car, but it is just an element of a continuing array improvements to GM’s product portfolio. Volt is an attempt to recapture the market’s imagination, to re-assert GM as a capable innovator and to claim concept leadership for a new direction in relevant personal transportation. If it succeeds, other improvements across the product portfolio must nevertheless continue for GM to be able to capitalize on Volt success. If Volt stumbles, gets out of the gate slowly or fails, the rest of GM’s product effort can overcome disappointment on one car. GM has to create many credible touch points with the market simultaneously and sustain the quality of those experiences. Cadillac sedans, Chevy trucks, compact cars and new tech alternatives will collectively have to be convincing. Volt is not a Hail Mary. It is merely an initiative to recast GM’s future, that needs the context of progress in conventional cars to be appreciated. Frankly, if you’re among those who find early adoption of a new technology too daunting, you can and should choose something more conventional.
Phil
If Volt stumbles, gets out of the gate slowly or fails, the rest of GM’s product effort can overcome disappointment on one car.
Riiiiight… which of new GM’s products will be doing that, Phil – the Colbalt? The Hummer?
GM has to create many credible touch points with the market simultaneously and sustain the quality of those experiences. Cadillac sedans, Chevy trucks, compact cars and new tech alternatives will collectively have to be convincing.
Where are they? We’re heard about the Volt… are they keeping the rest under a bushel somewhere? The Camaro isn’t going to save them…
Volt is not a Hail Mary.
Phil…. GM hasn’t got a lot more chances coming to it. My 233 year-old niece is car shopping. She only knows one thing for sure: “No American cars, right Uncle Lokki?”
She’s love a Prius, though.
GM hasn’t got a lot more chances coming to it. My 233 year-old niece is car shopping. She only knows one thing for sure: “No American cars, right Uncle Lokki?”
Well, then, you have an opportunity to correct her misguided conclusion, right? Did you take that opportunity to set her straight?
Phil
Ressler: “Well, then, you have an opportunity to correct her misguided conclusion, right?”
I’m sure “Uncle Lokki” did just that… “When they have proven reliability, into a decade and more, then you should reconsider that, my dear.”
The notion that worry is a natural part of life for the middle class auto buyer is a significant part of the reason why GM is on the ropes.
And if GM takes the stance that “10 years for a $10K – or even a $5K – part is perfectly natural,” the Volt will be DOA.
You can buy a lot of miles in a Prius for $1K/year, you can even buy a lot of miles in a Prius for $500/year.
Of course, GM hasn’t built the Volt, yet, anyway, and may never.
The notion that worry is a natural part of life for the middle class auto buyer is a significant part of the reason why GM is on the ropes.
There is no such notion other than that worry is a natural part of life, for everyone. It shouldn’t be an element of owning a car, and you can today buy Detroit 3 products that eliminate worry as effectively as anyone else does.
And if GM takes the stance that “10 years for a $10K – or even a $5K – part is perfectly natural,” the Volt will be DOA.
It won’t be $10,000 nor $5,000. Electric cars, however, will introduce different economic and maintenance properties that won’t be fully known until they’re in the market with significant presence. However, battery replacement cost isn’t going to be their inhibitor if there is one. If new scares you, stay old school. True, hand-wringers make up a large portion of the market, but people in the market for “next” will pave the way for worry-warts and vanity brand seekers to shed their fears.
Phil
Ressler: “you can today buy Detroit 3 products that eliminate worry as effectively as anyone else does.”
Few believe that. Without the belief, there is worry. And you’re evading the issue of an extra $10K of worry.
Ressler: “However, battery replacement cost isn’t going to be their inhibitor if there is one.”
Repeatedly asserted, entirely unproven.
Ressler: “… but people in the market for “next” will pave the way for worry-warts and vanity brand seekers to shed their fears.”
The people in the market for “next?” They already bought a Prius.