What is it with this PR conference speech? Why are we getting GM Car Czar Bob Lutz’ bon mots in les dribs and drabs? In this latest instalment from the spinmeisters ho’ down [via The Detroit Fress Press], Maximum Bob almost breaks his arm, patting himself on the back for being so open with the press about the Volt’s progress– or lack thereof (although he doesn’t say that, obviously). “In the unlikely event that we were going to hit some huge stumbling block, we wanted the world to kind of see how we got to that stumbling block and what that stumbling block was. As it happens, luckily, we don’t seem to be encountering any stumbling blocks.” Wow! Has Bob forgotten that the Volt blew past its original deadline like a Dodge Viper passing a Chevy Aveo? Meanwhile, the car is a raging success. “Volt has received 95% hugely positive coverage and has become really an iconic vehicle, which is strange to say about a vehicle that is not out yet.” Strange, and wonderful, really.

One of TTAC’s Best and Brightest sent us this little ditty from Credit Suisse re: U.S. new car sales for October. Needless to say, it’s a jug full of that sucks.

• We expect the October annualized light vehicle selling rate (SAAR) to land in a range of 11.5 – 11.8 million vehicles, the midpoint of which would be about 27% below the year-ago month pace of 16.0 million, and about 7% below last month’s pace of 12.5 million.

• We expect October unit volume (selling day adjusted) to be down in a range of 27% – 29% versus October 2007. The seasonal factors are slightly favorable this month (about 1%), which explains why our projected decline in the SAAR is not quite as deep as our projected decline in volume.

• We look for a modest decline in the truck mix in October, to about 49% from north of 50% in September, as much of the excess truck inventory has been cleared as automakers have cut production schedules and thrown big incentives at pickups, SUVs, and minivans.

• By maker, we see GM sales down in a range of 32% – 34% in October. Market share should suffer sequentially as GM experiences payback from its “employee discount for everyone” program that ran in August and September. We expect share of around 23%, down from 29% in September and 25% in the year-ago month.

• We look for Ford sales to tumble 33% – 35% in October, with market share bouncing to around 13.5%, up from about 12% in September (getting a boost as GM’s share comes back to earth), but down from nearly 15% in the year-ago month.

• We expect Chrysler sales to fall in a range of 32% – 34% in October, with market share coming in around 11%, down slightly from last month, and down about 80 basis points versus the year-ago month.

• Foreign brand sales should fall sharply in October as well, but will be supported by a 0% financing program at Toyota. We expect large sequential share gains for the foreign brands, to north of 52% from just under 48% in September.

• Assuming our sales forecasts are roughly correct for the month, we think inventories are likely to end October more overstocked than they were in September.

• Note that our year-end inventory forecast calls for overall improvement in dealer stocks between the end of Q3 and the end of Q4. But our year-end base case assumed a 13.0 million unit Q4 selling rate. To the extent the selling rate runs closer to 11 million units, fourth quarter production schedules at GM and Ford could be subject to further downward revision.

Huh. Did you know that Chrysler has a business plan, let alone a business plan based on a return to higher gas prices? If you believe everything you read, it does! “As a company, we are looking at a future of high gasoline prices,” Yvonne Malmgren, manager of global sales and incentive communications for Chrysler told Automotive News [AN, sub]. “That is what we expect, and we’re aligning our business plans with that idea in mind.” Don’t pass out, but GM spinmeister John McDonald is singing the same song. “GM is basing its product planning on higher fuel prices, not lower.” Ah, if only we’d heard those words ten years ago. Anyway, the media meme: the return of lower gas prices is stimulating sales of big rigs. In other words, stupid Americans! To be fair, AN is reporting this one fairly; pointing out that a) the rise represents a bigger slice of a MUCH smaller market b) profit-killing incentives have stimulated truck sales and c) the numbers aren’t actually out. (What’s the bet the nets don’t parse this one quite so well?) And just in case you gave ANY credibility to the story… “Says Joel Baker, owner of Baker Cadillac in Leominster, Mass.: ‘When gas was at $4 a gallon, we went for probably a 50-day period when we didn’t show any Escalades. When it hit $3.50, we started seeing some traffic again.'” Some traffic (not quantified), show (not sell). Works for me.

Market crash? Say what? Volkswagen’s stock price continue to defy market malaise and Newtonian physics. After wild gyrations last week, the Volkswagen stock– better known as WKN: 766400 / ISIN: DE0007664005– went berserk today. It opened at €500, and then more than doubled its value to €1005. At the time of this typing, it stands at €670. At its high, VW had a market cap of €296b ($369,272,943,612.85). For a while, VW was the most expensive corporation on the planet. VW represented half of the DAX, the German version of the Dow Jones. Again, it was the shorts that were caught with their pants down and the stock up. According to Automobilwoche (sub), when Porsche announced they’d raised their share in Volkswagen, it dawned on the traders “that only 6 percent of the shares are still available on the open market.” What’s more, funds that get compared with the DAX are now forced to buy Das Auto, Newton be damned. If someone played their options right, buying Volkswagen didn’t need the measly profits from a few Cayennes. While the financial world is falling apart, there is a tulip craze, Wolfsburg style. Detroit, eat your heart out.

This morning I rolled out of bed, performed my morning ablutions, downed a bowl of Raisin Bran, dropped my sons off at school and started my stop-and-go commute to work. A never-ending stream of blinking taillights precedes me up and down the interstate through the pre-dawn din. Wannabe comedians inanely chatter and squawk through my radio. Finally my exit arrives: a lightly traveled mile-long arcing two-lane spur that connects interstate to turnpike. In a brief burst of adrenaline energy that widens my bleary eyes, I break away from the gridlock and shoot up the ramp. In third gear I push up to 80 mph as my car confidently hunches down and steers precisely through the sweeping turn. By the time I join the turnpike I coast down and assimilate into the flow of the traffic. These brief thrills make me glad that I opted for a sportier, nimble handling family sedan. But I drive an ’01 Accord. The 2009 Accord LX is no fun at all.

For the few past years, European and American automakers looked to Chinese carmakers with hope and trepidation. They hoped the booming Chinese market would lift their worldwide sales. It did. They feared the Chinese would export cars en masse, swamping Europe and the U.S. with cheap vehicles. They did not.  For various reasons (crash tests, emissions, the economy), the arrival of the four-wheeled Yellow Peril was a non-starter.  What little exports the Chinese managed went to second- or third-tier markets like Africa or South America. Even those are are going down, down, down. In August, China exported a mere 44,400 units, a decline of 22.18 percent month-on-month and 11.29 percent year-on-year. This according to numbers straight from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, quoted in Gasgoo, which calls the news “discouraging.”

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We’ve already covered Detroit News columnist Daniel Howes’ Road to Damascus moment, when the hometown paper’s seriously smart scribe finally acknowledged that the domestics are going down. But Danny’s latest column indicates a bit of backsliding. “Fed help for GM merits tough terms” promises guidelines to protect taxpayer’s interests. You know something along the lines of Ken Elias’ recent General Motors Death Watch post. Of course, any such prescription would have to include a call for the dismissal of the Harvard-educated idiots runing GM, the Home Despots atop Chrysler and UAW jeffe Big Ron Gettelfinger. But that’s a bridge too far for the Detn’s Motown maven. “…the guys atop GM, Ford, Chrysler and the UAW with their collective hands out should be prepared to accept some onerous conditions in exchange for the federal dough — up to and including putting their jobs, legacies and golden parachutes on the line.” Putting them on the line? Danny, these guys needs to go (save that nice Mr. Mulally who rang us up the other day and totally coopted our coverage). Full marks for asking the right questions (albeit a bit late). Now, how about some answers?

Domestic branded car dealerships continue to throw in the towel at breakneck speed. Today’s Wall Street Journal reports on the rolling blackouts. As new vehicle sales have fallen to a “25-year low, car dealerships from New Jersey to California are going out of business at an accelerating pace, threatening greater economic pain for communities around the country.” Love ’em or hate ’em, car dealerships are a significant source of jobs and sales tax collections. “The country’s 20,700 dealerships accounted for $693 billion in sales last year, or 18% of all retail sales, according to NADA. Dealership wages and salaries make up 13% of the nation’s retail payroll.” Said NADA forecasts 5,000 fewer US new car dealerships by the end of 2008 than there were in 1990. The death knell blows are coming from bankers slamming the door in long time customer’s faces. Stories like this abound: “Joseph Pfeffer, owner of Bigelow Motors, a Chrysler and Jeep dealer in Belleville, N.J., closed shop Oct. 4 after his bank decided to exit automotive financing and cut him off from $5 million in inventory financing. He had been in business since 1942, getting his start selling DeSotos and Plymouths. ‘I always survived,’ said Mr. Pfeffer, 92 years old, ‘but nobody ever cut off my line of credit before.'” Bigelow sold forty units in August, but only seven in September. No buyers, no bankers, no business. Its ugly out there.

The average American has no idea that GM is run by a bunch of nimrods. And even if they knew about the Machiavellian machinations behind the automakers’ recent struggle for survival– including hiring a raft of ex-treasury officials to lobby their former employer for tens of billions of GM bailout bucks– they wouldn’t care. That’s all Inside Baseball stuff. Joe the Public has enough on their proverbial plate just running the kids to school, keeping food on the table and putting a roof overhead. But when it comes to buying a new car, well, that’s a horsepower of a different color.

As Moody’s has downgraded GM and GMAC to Caa2, it only makes sense that the ratings agency has assigned potential “partner” Chrysler and Chrysler Financial the exact same rating. MarketWatch reports that the ChryCo Bros. are now at Caa2. Folks, Caa2 is the third circle of junk credit Hell, only a blink away from the last part of this category (Caa3). In other words, “Obligations rated Caa are judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk, and have extremely poor credit quality.” There are only two ratings lower: Ca and then C. And then… game over. Bottom line: Chrysler’s “plenty o’ cash contention” was the complete B.S. anyone with industry insight knew it to be. Or, as Moody’s puts it, “The downgrade of the Chrysler rating reflects the increased pressure on the company’s liquidity position due to the precipitous decline in US automotive demand and the likelihood that shipment levels will remain depressed through 2009.” Bottom line II: the only institution that will lend GM. GMAC, Chrysler and Chrysler Financial is you (a.k.a. the U.S. government). That said, Chrysler’s owners Cerberus have plenty deep pockets. According to their website: “Cerberus holds controlling or significant minority interests in companies around the world. In aggregate, these companies currently generate over $100 billion in annual revenues [emphasis added].” But Feinberg’s Boyz know better than to throw good money after bad.

Next Tuesday, Washington state voters will consider Initiative 985. If adopted, I-985 would force local jurisdictions to synchronize traffic signals at high-volume intersections, open High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes during non-peak hours and prohibit the imposition of tolls to raise general revenue. I-985 pays for the synchronization mandate by, among other things, diverting red light camera profits into a traffic congestion relief fund. The measure’s co-sponsor, Tim Eyman, says taking away camera profits would stop local governments from installing the devices as a cash grab. After I-985 qualified for the ballot, five cities dropped plans to adopt photo enforcement. As you’d imagine, the revenue provisions have sparked vicious and vociferous opposition from groups that stand to lose money from the new deal.

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Down the rabbit hole our tax money goes, as a “merger” has become a “rescue.” Reuters reports General Motors and Cerberus Capital Management have asked the U.S. government for roughly $10b in an “unprecedented rescue package” to support a merger between GM and Chrysler, according to “two sources with direct knowledge of the talks.” But don’t worry, because only $3b of that would buy Uncle Sam preferred stock in the merged automaker, “according to one of the sources, who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.” You may have qualms about government ownership of a large slice of the American auto industry, but Reuters writers are down with that. “It would… give U.S. taxpayers a large stake in the turnaround of a struggling auto industry that employs over 350,000 American workers and is credited with supporting employment for another 4.5 million in related fields.” So what of the remaining $7b?

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How cheap are work trucks when no one’s working? Case in point. 2008 Ford F250 Superduty with rear seats, Automatic, and a throbbing 6.4L V8 powerstroke diesel with 350 Hp and 650 lbs. of torque. 41k highway miles, and, oh yeah. Like most other trucks at the auctions it’s a repo which has become a mantra for Atlanta inventory. Charge out price this morning at Carmax Auctions was $10,500, and that was with absolutely no announcements that would normally detract from the truck’s value (Engine Noise, Transmission Slips, Frame Damage, etc.). Oh, and every other truck and SUV repo that was at today’s sale, didn’t sell. Even a Toyota Tacoma and Hyundai Santa Fe Limited found no buyers.