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Germany’s industry rag Automobilwoche [sub] is running an interesting ballot. “Who do you think would profit the most if GM goes bust?” (or German words to that effect). The options are kind of odd. Only Ford, Renault/Nissan, Toyota, and Volkswagen are eligible. But keep in mind, Automobilwoche is a German rag. They could have asked “What if Opel would die?” But they didn’t. Do they know more than we do? 846 souls have voted so far.
5 Comments on “GM Deathwatch, German Edition: Cui Bono?...”
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I voted on that one a couple of days ago, and the obvious choice was FORD. (The fact that Chrysler isn´t even mentioned says a lot.)
If Chrysler seems to be gone already, and GM was to go Chapter 11, basically there will always be a certain amount of petrolheads in the US that will refuse to buy a car that is not from a ´merkin manufacturer (even if the non-´merkin car is assembled in the US and the ´merkin car is assembled in Mexico).
So in the worst case, FORD might shrink by 50% – 90%, but they will still exist, possibly selling their cars for a premium of 100% compared to the Japanese/Germans/Koreans etc., but they will still be there, and maybe leading a rather comfortable life.
(Including Renault/Nissan in the survey while leaving Honda out is odd because Renaults are not on sale in the US.) Volkswagen is selling their cars at a loss I assume until their plant is up and running in the US.
I wonder if Automobilwoche staff can decide about things like these surveys on their own. After all, they´re a Crain Communications company (Autonews.com). I remember GM managers telling OPEL managers what they were allowed to do back in the 80s and 90s. Probably just getting paranoid…
Actually, I believe that in Europe the biggest winners will be French (PSA and Renault) and FIAT. They all compete in about the same market segment as Opel and Chevy/Daewoo/Suzuki.
If GM (Opel) fails it may create stigma towards “American” companies (just think what used Opel will fetch?) and this affect Ford negatively. VW is a little on expensive side, but Frenchies and FIAT are right in the sweet spot. Also, Ford is using FIAT motors and platforms to begin with, so why gamble and pay extra for an oval?
The fools! The obvious winner would be TTAC and Robert Farrago. I suppose there’d be a party followed by “what now?” — and then the filing of “Toyota Deathwatch #1: You’ve got to start somewhere”.
FIAT was almost broke a couple of years ago and maybe they can make the electric work in their cars but i have my doubts
Maybe we will luck out and GM will go broke allowing Saturn and Opel to spinoff and truely become a division of Opel and bringing us real Opel products and not the watered down stuff that GM tosses their way these days.
I could live with a few years of “Saturn (by Opel)” on the trunklids.
Then we could see the return of truly small trucks (original S-10 size), small vans, small MPVs, etc etc etc. clever products with some style.