Top Gear presenter and Times carmudgeon Jeremy Clarkson is not one to walk away form a fight. In fact, you could say he never met a fist he didn’t lunge his towards. After Tesla and the MSM knocked Clarkson for pretending that a Roadster ran out of juice in an episode of the shark jumping car show, Clarkson mounted Ye Olde “Valid Yet Undeclared Fictional Recreation of Theoretical Facts” defense. And that, one presumed, was that. Only, of course, it wasn’t. In Clarkson’s Times column, the world’s most famous pistonhead attempts to disprove the English maxim “the first thing you do when you’re in a hole is stop digging.” “Tesla, when contacted by reporters, gave its account of what happened and it was exactly the same as ours. It explained that the brakes had stopped working because of a blown fuse and didn’t question at all our claim that the car would have run out of electricity after 55 miles.” Uh, yes it did. Anyway… “The problem is, though, that really and honestly, the US-made Tesla works only at dinner parties. Tell someone you have one and in minutes you will be having sex. But as a device for moving you and your things around, it is about as much use as a bag of muddy spinach.” Dodgy handling, high price, yada, yada, yada. And the Roadster’s greatest sin?
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Bloomberg has had a look at the U.S. new car market and it seems that American consumers are busy joining their Japanese counterparts in a new trend: hanging onto their cars until they die. “Used vehicles being traded in at dealerships averaged 6.3 years of age after the Wall Street meltdown in late 2008, about 6 months older than before the crisis, according to forecaster J.D. Power & Associates in Troy, Michigan.” And you know which way this one’s going. TTAC’s Best and Brightest have been connecting those dots for some time. Still, it’s a bit startling to see the MSM do the same. “If the industry sells fewer than 12 million vehicles this year, the government will have to write more checks” media-friendly auto analyst John Casesa told Bloomies. “Otherwise GM, Ford and Chrysler will be gone, bankrupt.” TARP this. “’Even with a drop in the price of gasoline, families aren’t changing their decision to keep running the old car’ said the Conference Board’s Goldstein. Nor will steps such as an easing of credit standards at lender GMAC be enough on their own to revive showroom traffic, said Tom Libby, a J.D. Power analyst. ‘Just because GMAC has become a bit more lenient, it’s not like a light switch,’ Libby said. ‘It will take economic stability to reignite car buying, it will take some calm. That’s what a shopper needs for the confidence to spend $26,000.'”
Next to Buddhism and Shinto, there is a third, equally important religion in Japan: “Seken tei wo kinisuru,” or be mindful of ones reputation. Japanese are neat, and polite, and they very much care of what their neighbors think. You don’t see many old and decrepit cars on Japan’s streets. Would be bad for your seken tei. Buying a new ride every few years is just the right thing to do. Make that “was the right thing to do.”
Most of the Japanese are now dead set to hang on to their current car for its dear life. Only if it dies will they set foot into a dealer again. This is the result of a study conducted by The Nikkei (sub) and C-News, a marketing data service operated by Yahoo Japan Value Insight Corp.
The question was simple and straightforward: “What do you plan to do with your current car?” 56.5 percent of the respondents said they would drive it until it breaks down, then buy a new one. Only 10 percent chose “replace it with a new one, as soon as I find a nice model.”
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An overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Beijing this week, from Berlin next week,
Chinese Buick: The Buick LaCrosse, set to debut at the North American International Auto Show next week, is a Chinese product. Due to Buick’s popularity in China, the company’s design team there took the lead in remodeling the LaCrosse, Gasgoo writes. Sales of Buicks in China reached 332,000 units in 2007, according to data supplied to IHS Global Insight, a consulting firm. The LaCrosse was the second-best seller there, with 71,500 cars sold. Figures for full-year 2008 year are not available yet. By comparison, GM sold 137,197 Buick branded cars and light trucks in the U.S. in 2008, down 26.4 percent from 2007. The company sold 36,873 LaCrosses in 2008, down 23 percent from 2007. In December alone, LaCrosse sales dipped 59 percent to 1,451 units.
The Detroit News and The Wall Street Journal are reporting that Motown automakers’ pensions funds are no longer fully-funded. “The outgoing director of the U.S. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. warned Friday that Detroit’s Big Three automakers face a $41 billion pension shortfall. “We’re not trying to tell people that the pension house is on fire,” quoth E.F. Millard in the DetN. “The point is that in many ways this has a similar look to other situations, such as a Bethlehem Steel.” Not surprisingly, the WSJ has an even more alarming sound bite. “An awful lot of people seem to think these plans are well funded or overfunded. Each of these plans is significantly underfunded [and] in three years I don’t want people coming back and saying, ‘How come the PBGC never told us that?'” Let’s drill down, then.
This subject came up in the comments underneath my review of the Bugatti T40. [If you haven’t come across dogboxes before, they’re explained (or at least chewed over) here.] Googling to shed some light on the debate, I came across this hair-raising video of BMW supercar with a straightcut dogbox eating up the competition, sounding like something out of Star Wars. My take is that while straight cut spur gear are weaker (in principle), they can be constructed to be enough bigger in the same space that they end up stronger (in practice). Perhaps TTAC’s Best and Brightest would care to comment?
• December sales might have been even weaker if not for a hefty slug of fleet deliveries at GM. GM’s overall sales were down 31%, which topped our forecast decline of 34% to 36%. But within that total, GM’s retail sales were down a sharp 41%, while fleet deliveries were about flat year-to-year. If GM’s fleet sales were down roughly in line with the industry average (mid-30% range) the SAAR [Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate] would have been closer to 10.0 million, or perhaps 9.9 million, we estimate.
• The outlook for sales in 1Q09 is no brighter than the 2008 exit rate. Both Ford and GM suggested that sales could run in the 10 to 11 million range in the first part of 2009, with somewhat of a (stimulus-driven) recovery in the back half of the year (has a familiar ring, doesn’t it?).
• GM slashed its production plans throughout the rest of the world, with Europe now set to fall 44%, Latin America 34%,and Asia pacific 27%, versus 1Q08.
• At the end of December, we find Big 3 dealer stocks to be about 31% above normal, which is about where they ended November. The truck mix headed higher again in December, and combined with weak industry sales to leave cars about 75% overstocked. Light trucks were about 12% overstocked.
• We estimate Chrysler to be the most overstocked of the Big 3, with dealer stocks about 45% above normal. Trucks are about 80% overstocked, while cars are about 37% overstocked.
• Ford ended the month overstocked by about 22%, with passenger cars a sharp 83% above normal, and trucks about 2% below normal.
• GM was about 29% overstocked at the end of December, with cars 70% overstocked, and light trucks about 9% overstocked.
• A look at days’ supply of foreign brand vehicles also shows a severe overstocked situation. For example, Honda dealers had 96 days of car supply in December, up from 50 days in the year-ago month; Toyota had 94 days of car supply, up from 42 days a year ago; BMW had 57 days of car supply, up from 22 days in December 2007.
When I read Autoblog’s post on the one-month delay to production of the new Camaro, I decided not to blog it. AB said a notice had been sent to Bow Tie dealers pinning the delay on their desire to assure quality control. I manually lowered my arched eyebrow and got on with the other business of the day. But now, scanning Automotive News [AN, sub], it seems that the delay isn’t quite as straight forward as I thought it wasn’t. “It’s due to a variety of factors that I’m not going to get into, but it’s nothing to be concerned about,” [GM spinmeister Terrance “I’m not a Dickens character”] Rhadigan said. “We’re still going to build every one we can, and we’re excited to get them out.” In a strange turn of events, AN fingers a previous flagged supplier “issue”– despite GM’s denial. “Automotive News reported in late December that GM is suing Cadence Innovation, a supplier of interior parts that is liquidating, to get machines and parts needed to make the Camaro. GM provided equipment to the supplier to make the Camaro parts, a standard industry practice. GM has said if it didn’t get the production equipment back by Jan. 12, the start of Camaro production would be delayed. Rhadigan said the postponement isn’t connected to the Cadence dispute.” So why mention it? Is AN beginning to lose patience with GM?
Two hours after President Bush announced he’d reversed his position– tapping into the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)– to bailout Detroit, United Auto Workers boss Ron Gettelfinger announced his intention to get the incoming president to remove the wage parity provisions included in the deal. Why wait? Reuters reveals that “Legislation proposed on Friday to tighten the sweeping U.S. corporate bailout program omitted specific targets for labor concessions that were a key feature of last month’s Bush administration rescue of distressed automakers. A portion of the bill proposed by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank sought to codify the auto bailout with terms, that with two exceptions, basically mirror those imposed by the White House when it extended $17.4 billion in emergency loans to General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC.” Meanwhile, “Frank’s plan also seeks to formalize oversight of the auto bailout under a trustee or ‘car czar.'” Bottom line: no UAW haircut (a.k.a. business as usual) unless the Senate reinserts the original language. And a Big Stick wielder to make sure that GM and Chrysler realize Congress’ green dreams. I mean, return to profitability. Don’t I?
Kids rule, telecoms drool. In this case, AT&T figures pester power will entice car owners to stump-up $1299 and $28 a month for an in-car satellite TV system. That and installation charges for a roof-mounted antenna pod thingie that will do for automotive aerodynamics what the Olsen twins did for the food pyramid. AT&T calls the service “Cruisecast,” ignoring the obvious connection to the Al Pacino movie and lifestyle choice known as Cruising. And what’s with that satellite following the car? Anyway, “A final channel lineup is still being developed,” PC World reveals, quoting this morning’s press release. “But AT&T says it will include lots of family-friendly entertainment, including Disney Channel, Disney XD, Discovery Kids, Animal Planet, Nickelodeon, Cartoon Network Mobile, USA, COMEDY CENTRAL, MSNBC, CNN Mobile Live and CNBC.” I know what you’re thinking: HOW much? And if you’re geeky, you’ll wonder how AT&T TV can keep on keeping on when it’s out of sight of the company’s birds. All hail its “breakthrough buffering technology keeps the show going even when you’re under a tunnel or other line-of-site obstacle.” Just in case that doesn’t fly with car buyers/owners, Avis and Budget car will offer Cruisecast in some of its rental cars for $9 a day or $63 a week. Or you could just toss a couple of iPhones in back.
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