By on February 2, 2009

Announcing the single greatest transfer of wealth in the world in the last six hours. Well, GM and Chrysler would like their United Auto Workers (UAW) employees to take your tax money and quit. That way the ailing American automakers can replace the highly-paid union workers with lower paid union workers (that would still pay the same union dues, ‘natch). And, thus, prove to someone on Capitol Hill that they’re satisfying the provision of their $17.4b “bridge” loans. To that end, GM’s offering its high wage union workers a $20k “bonus” and a $25k car voucher to piss off. Chrysler’s offering $50k and a $25k voucher. But there are all kinds of problems with this plan.

First, the offer is worse than the last go. As The Detroit News reports, last time ’round there was more money on the table. This time, a car voucher replaces cash.

While The DetN (and perhaps GM and ChryCo management) wishfully suggest that the “gift certificate” provision will boost sales, UAW workers are the last people who’d ever consider a new car voucher on a one-for-one basis with George Washingtons. 

Second, the union workers simply aren’t buying it. Nor are they likely to. The take-up rate was low for the last round of UAW buyouts. That was before the bailout. Now that Uncle Sam is footing the bill, after their boss vowed to reverse the Big 1.8’s promise to institute wage and benefit parity with their transplant equivalents, why should they?

Third, GM and Chrysler are still chasing falling sales and market share. Even if the take-up rate was higher, they don’t need to replace anybody. So those “replacement hires” are a myth. 

I know the automakers must be seen to be trying to satisfy their loan conditions. But this is farce. Punishment glutton and taxpayer that I am, I can’t wait to hear GM CEO Rick Wagoner and Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli explain this one to my elected representatives. In their desperation to stay alive, will the automakers throw the UAW to the wolves? Are there any wolves left?

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43 Comments on “Bailout Watch 370: More GM and Chrysler UAW Buyouts. Or Not....”


  • avatar
    John Horner

    So the money being given to Detroit to “save jobs” is being spent to get rid of jobs. Yikes.

  • avatar
    Captain Tungsten

    Yeah, John, i was wondering when that little detail would come out. GM & Chrysler must be counting on the fear of what a C11 might mean to the “incentives” to separate from the company.

  • avatar
    BDB

    “So the money being given to Detroit to “save jobs” is being spent to get rid of jobs. Yikes.”

    They’re killing jobs, but fewer are being killed by doing this than would have been killed had they never gotten the bailout money and gone into Chapter 11 (or God forbid Chapter 7!)

  • avatar
    IOtheworldaliving

    While The DetN (and perhaps GM and ChryCo management) wishfully suggest that the “gift certificate” provision will boost sales, UAW workers are the last people who’d ever consider a new car voucher on a one-for-one basis with George Washingtons.

    Chrysler workers were offered $70k cash previously. Now it’s $50k cash and $25k voucher. I’d assume the vouchers are worth about 60 cents on the dollar, or $15k cash, so it’s slightly worse for Chrysler workers this time. (Although they did get paid good money for working between then and now). I don’t remember what GM workers were offered previously.

    The previous offers have no relevance in the decisions that folks have to make now, obviously. What’s important is what’s likely to come up in the future–or, metaphorically speaking, what’s inside Leyla’s case. What answer do you give Howie this round?

  • avatar
    Runfromcheney

    BDB: But GM DESPERATELY needs Chapter 11. The reason why they are bleeding red ink is not because of the recession, as they would like for you to believe, but because GM is built like a company that is holding 50% of the market, instead of 20%, which is what they actually hold. If GM wants to survive, they have to downsize, and downsize quick. This is not helped by idiots like Wagoner who care about nothing but their huge salaries, and seem adament about keeping GM as the biggest company on the block, no matter what the cost. Hence why the writers on TTAC referring to GM’s management as “living in a bubble”.

  • avatar
    BDB

    Runfromcheney–

    What makes you think a C11 wouldn’t snowball into a C7? Then we’re looking at Ford going down along with GM and the midwest turning into an economic wasteland.

    GM needs restructuring, yes, but through the federal government NOT through bankruptcy which is way too risky. That would be playing economic Russian Roulette.

    Screw Wagoner, yes, but letting GM go bankrupt because of jerk offs like Wagoner is cutting your nose to spite your face.

  • avatar

    BDB :

    So we should protect Detroit from the consequences of their actions to protect the midwest’s economy? In this case, we’re paying twice: federal “loans” AND higher prices at the car lot.

    I get it. So let me ask you a simple question. Why not directly subsidize the workers within this theoretical dead zone? For the price of all these bailouts, we could mail a check for $100k to all UAW workers. Before it’s all over, I reckon we could send a check for that amount to anyone even remotely connected with the U.S. auto industry and still come out ahead.

  • avatar
    bluecon

    The car companies are just the canary in the coal mine. The coal mine is on fire and the feds are going to throw gasoline on it to put out the fire.

  • avatar
    IOtheworldaliving

    Before it’s all over, I reckon we could send a check for that amount to anyone even remotely connected with the U.S. auto industry and still come out ahead.

    I now work for a company that manufacturers general aviation aircraft. Fortunately I am not in that division, but the company is laying off thousands of workers in that division as the market is currently imploding. The cratering is being exacerbated by the JetGate scandal. If Rick, Bob, and Al had some stones, they could have stood up for their industry and defended the prudent use of their planes. Of course, if they did have stones, they would have gone C11 a long time ago.

    My point is, I think all the workers who got laid off should get $100k, thanks to their betrayal by the D3 CEOs. As for me, I’ll just settle for having our merit increases reinstated (they were suspended company-wide last week).

  • avatar
    CommanderFish

    Is this really cheaper than just handing people pink slips?

  • avatar
    KixStart

    John Horner: “So the money being given to Detroit to “save jobs” is being spent to get rid of jobs. Yikes.”

    Yep. It’s actually in GM’s “Viability Plan.” Reduce from 85K to 65K workers. Presumably more offshoring. I have to wonder if anybody in DC spent a few minutes reading the plan.

    RF: “Why not directly subsidize the workers within this theoretical dead zone? For the price of all these bailouts, we could mail a check for $100k to all UAW workers.”

    That same thought had occurred to me and I rather like the idea. Republicans would never stand for giving cash money to the lower classes. It must be filtered through the CEOs’ and shareholders’ kidneys, first, and trickled down from there.

  • avatar
    Conslaw

    I’m struggling to understand this bailout. They are offering cash they don’t have to buy out workers they don’t and won’t need. As RF mentions, that doesn’t give them low cost workers, it just gives them fewer active workers, but more retirees. If this is the core of their viability plan for the Treasury Dept., they might as well not print the copies. That’s not what they were asked to do. They were asked to get concessions from the lenders to make the debt service reasonable, and concessions from labor to make their labor rate competitive with “the transplants”. They have done neither.

    Which brings us to their product plan. They couldn’t even come up with one. They had to hire an exchange student (Fiat) to write their term paper for them. The plan is apparently to sell the models they currently have (down 48% from last year), for another two years or more. At that time, they will import some small cars, and a couple years after that they will start building some Fiat-designed small cars in the US. Meanwhile, all of their competitors will have brought out A, B and C class competition. Also, in the meantime, loss-leader current generation Chryslers, subsidized by the government suck any profitability out of the industry.

    Of course, this whole thing depends upon getting political support for using government funds to pay some workers $50k and a car to not work while countless other workers are losing their jobs with no severance pay, no health insurance and precious little unemployment insurance.

    Good luck with that.

  • avatar
    Jerome10

    If they don’t voluntarily take it, they can still be involuntarily released. Your choice. Always has been that way.

    I have a few questions about it though. First, I applaud companies who lay people off as easily as they can. It does show some sort of appreciation to offer a severance. However, $70k (or earlier up to sometimes 100k) is RIDICULOUS for what are essentially line jobs. What is that, full year salary or more? There has to be a bigger motivation. Otherwise why wouldn’t they just let them go or give them $2500 and be done with it? Is this some type of exchange? Big buy out but agree to no future pension or you leave the union or you won’t be re-hired or you agree not to strike or what? Something has to be behind the amounts here.

    Uncle sam is gonna foot the bill either way folks, cuz everyone is gonna go on unemployment. That’s not cheap either. At least if they do this right, the companies can stay around, or land a lot softer. Probably a whole lot cheaper to pay to get rid of thousands than have millions head to the unemployment office.

    And finally, they should be glad they even have the freakin option. Seriously. I, unfortunately, got downsized out of my job as an engineer 2 weeks ago in this industry, and got my last paycheck, unpaid vacation time, less than 1 weeks pay severance (for which they still took the normal taxes of course), a thank you, and a see ya later. Oh to have gotten even $10k in severance. And you bet your ass if I had gotten $50k and a new car I would have taken it. Then I would be driving that new car to school to get my masters degree that was fully paid for by my former employer. Be glad if you even have that option. Most everyone else gets something like I did, or even less.

  • avatar
    mikey

    I turned down 5 incentive buy outs in a 6 year period.Each offer was an improvement and a little sweeter than the one before.I sat on the fence when the #6 offer came in the mail.5 days before the Sept 12 08 deadline I picked up some info.It came to my attention that about 90% of the elected union reps were taken the money and runnin.

    Mikey might have no education,but mom never raised any fools.I took the money and run.

  • avatar
    no_slushbox

    “If they don’t voluntarily take it, they can still be involuntarily released. Your choice. Always has been that way.”

    Ah, you are not very familiar with the UAW and union contracts.

    If the automakers don’t buy them out they have to put them on the jobs bank, paying them 85-95% of their pay, permanently.

    Nice work if you can get it. Unfortunately the scum bag UAW threw all the new workers under the bus with half the pay in exchange for the current workers not having to make any concessions to their failing employers, so you can’t.

    Even with the buyouts the automakers will still have to give the workers pensions, but those pensions won’t kick in until a certain age (normally 65, but with the UAW who knows).

    Until pension age the buyout will save the cost of keeping the worker at home on the jobs bank or on the assembly line doing a redundant, featherbedded job.

  • avatar
    CommanderFish

    I have some friends that got laid off at the Janesville, WI GM plant. Their severance was set to last 18 months, but it’s being cut considerably shorter now that the jobs bank program is being discontinued.

    Still better than what most professionals get.

  • avatar
    mikey

    @ slushbox I am familiar with UAW/CAW contracts.
    #1 Job banks are gone permanently
    #2 Nobody threw nobody under the bus with 2 tiered wages.New hires will soon out number old timers we will see who throws who under said bus.
    #3 Years of service determines your pension those with 30 years or more get a full pension regardless of age.
    #4 Redundant,feathbedded jobs do not exsist.

    Sorry to dispel your myths but untill you have spent some time on the factory floor you really are not in a position of knowledge.

  • avatar
    ihatetrees

    IOtheworldaliving :
    As for me, I’ll just settle for having our merit increases reinstated (they were suspended company-wide last week).

    Yeah. I’m in healthcare manufacturing – which is somewhat recession proof – but our wages are frozen for ’09.

  • avatar
    IOtheworldaliving

    ihatetrees: You and I will be relatively lucky if we aren’t asked to take a pay cut in the future. Particularly if we enter a deflationary period. :(

  • avatar
    Rix

    70k seems excessive, given that if Chrysler liquidates, they will be unsecured creditors and get nothing. Plus whatever “change” the Obama administration gives, of course. You think the US government can cover the UAW salary tab? Not likely.

  • avatar
    stuki

    BDB:

    There are plenty of regions in America without much of a Big 3 presence. They’re not all economic wastelands.

    Michigan supposedly has the highest per capita population of engineers of any state. There’s more than benevolent political and UAW overlords that keep people from starving to death up there.

    Absent powerful union lobbies (after a C 11 or 7), there is nothing preventing more pro business legislators from kicking the current crop of incompetents out of office in Michigan and surroundings; allowing these states to become just as competitive as those in the South.

    That would likely turn them solidly red, like other predominantly manufacturing regions, which ought to be all the encouragement our house and senate minorities would need to fight every silly auto bailout tooth and nail.

    Of course, the dems know this as well, so expect them to keep feeding the UAW and their dinosaur employers for as long as they can.

    Causing untold pain to America and her citizens in the process.

  • avatar
    joe_thousandaire

    R.F.:
    “For the price of all these bailouts, we could mail a check for $100k to all UAW workers”

    For even less than that you could buy a few hydrogen bombs and drop them on the midwest and just solve the whole problem in one shot. That’s basically what you’re saying, just let it all burn. What happens then? After the $100k a person is spent up and there are still no jobs? Welfare? (the non-corporate kind) Medicare? All that will cost you too. You can’t make millions of workers disappear. Keeping the U.S. auto manufactures on some sort of federal life support until people actually want to buy cars again is as cheap a way to get through this as any, and what Detroit is getting is a pittance compared to what wallstreet has been given to stay afloat. Keeping some crumbs of heavy industry and engineering in the U.S. might end up being worth the investment*

    * see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WWII)

  • avatar
    psarhjinian

    It came to my attention that about 90% of the elected union reps were taken the money and runnin.

    I’m reminded of when my father, when he still worked as a carpenter at a boat factory, quit the UBC board in disgust over that kind of behaviour (buy-out and contracts written in favour of union stewards, as the company is burning).

    I was very young at the time, but he wasn’t at all happy about they way they were run.

  • avatar

    I live in RI, the birthplace of America’s industrial revolution. Formerly the world’s largest producer of costume jewelry. Formerly an industrial powerhouse, next door to some of the largest textile mills ever created (Fall River). An engine of wealth and prosperity based on making things.

    High wages and taxes, ridiculous union contract conditions, union/mafia thuggishness, government and political corruption– it all pushed industry south, to right to work states.

    All of it. Gone. Within fifty years, the entire state became a ghost town. Real estate values disappeared. Once proud neighborhoods sank into crime and chaos. The state is still littered with huge brick factories that no one wants, save the arsonists that end their life (paid or unpaid, who knows?).

    Wash, rinse, repeat. The same process destroyed the entirety of New England’s industrial base. If it weren’t for natural resources and the high-tech belt around rt. 128 and the superb colleges left in prosperity’s wake, the area would probably still be an economic desert.

    The system, of course, it still broken. The corruption remains. The unions remain. The bloated government remains. Unemployment is currently the highest in the United States: over 10%. The unionized public school system has continued its downward trajectory.

    Start a small business in Rhode Island? Why?

    Like Rhode Island, Pittsburgh, upstate New York and the entirety of what’s called The Rust Belt, the midwest jumped the shark a long time ago. They are living off of borrowed time. And now, borrowed money.

    I criticize the Big 2.8 mercilessly because I’ve seen what happens next. Telling them that they’re driving off a cliff is the right thing to do.

    I hold little hope that they will reverse engines, given nothing has changed at the sharp end, in the executive suites or within the surrounding infrastructure. But at least this website can [continue to] be a voice for change.

    Adapt or die. Actions have consequences. The truth will set you free. That sort of thing.

  • avatar
    mikey

    I hear you Mr Farago.I see the results every day here in Canada’s motor city.A combination of a low
    dollar,and socialized medicine insulated us.Like GM management we lived in a bubble of prosperity.

    We all saw Roger and Me,our lower management types returned from trips to Buick city or Warren
    with tales of the devastation.We chose to ignore it,at our own peril.The mess in the rust belt evolved over 10 or 15 years.Here in Southern Ontario its happened in 18 months.

    With some time on my hands these days I’ll drive through the old Oshawa neighborhoods.I see the closed factorys the empty lots.I see the once well kept working class areas that our now homes to hookers and crack addicts.The closed stores and general disrepair.It all happened so fucking fast.

    It brings tears to this aging baby boomer’s eyes.

    Its starting to sink in with the rank and
    file.There is still are hard core group that won’t face reality.Thier numbers are thinning though.I talk to lots of people.The smarter/younger management people are sharpening thier resume’s.The older/high paid guys are in total denial.Higher education and all, thier every bit as dumb as the iliterate fuck on the floor,that won’t even watch the nightly news.

    As I type I watch CNN headline news announce more layoffs at more places.

    I’m afraid that a way of life that my generation took for granted is over,never to return.

  • avatar
    Bluegrass Dave

    Question, RF. If “High wages and taxes, ridiculous union contract conditions, union/mafia thuggishness, government and political corruption– it all pushed industry south, to right to work states,” then what moved those same industries from the low wage, no unions, pliable politicians, right to work south to Mexico and China? Clearly, other factors are responsible, such as the U.S. Tax Code and trade agreements.

  • avatar
    geeber

    KixStart: That same thought had occurred to me and I rather like the idea. Republicans would never stand for giving cash money to the lower classes. It must be filtered through the CEOs’ and shareholders’ kidneys, first, and trickled down from there.

    Actually, Republicans are asking why we should be paying anyone anything, when in virtually every other industry, workers are let go with a perhaps some severance and six months unemployment, especially if their employers can no longer afford them.

    That is the correct question to ask….

  • avatar
    njdave

    joe_thousandaire
    You and several others on these boards confuse a continuing US auto industry with the 3 existing companies. You think that if we don’t keep those companies alive, it will be the end. I believe that if we let those 3 companies die a merciful death, new companies will start up quickly to fill the void in domestic auto manufacturing. They will hire many of those same workers. But these will be new companies that actually make cars people want to buy, and that are viable ongoing companies instead of the zombies that are currently being kept alive on taxpayer life support. New companies can’t start until the old ones are gone. That leaves all the workers in limbo, nothing is changing and things will never get better for them. Is that what you really want? People talk of the thousands of jobs that will be lost when the big 3 go under, but a large portion of jobs have ALREADY been lost. What do you propose we do about them? Just leave them to starve while the taxpayers keep the relatively few that are still working going? Until there are new dynamic companies making new and exciting cars things will never get better for those workers currently idled. You talk of the midwest becoming an economic desert, but it already is that for many if not most of the people there. You are just living in an oasis in the desert, and don’t want anything to change that.

  • avatar
    no_slushbox

    mikey:

    “#1 Job banks are gone permanently”

    -Really, then why the massive buyouts, why not a month’s severance and you’re gone?

    “#2 Nobody threw nobody under the bus with 2 tiered wages.New hires will soon out number old timers we will see who throws who under said bus.”

    -Two tiered wages are directly screwing over any new workers, they are doing the same work for half the pay. And I seriously doubt that new
    hires will ever outnumber old timers. Unless the governments force it or buy it there will be no new hires in Union areas.

    “#3 Years of service determines your pension those with 30 years or more get a full pension regardless of age.”

    -Sweet, so someone can retire at 50 with a full pension. I’m glad that I’ll be supporting that welfare until my IRA allows retirement.

    “#4 Redundant,feathbedded jobs do not exsist.”

    -The Germans and Japanese avoid the UAW and CAW like the plague because of the perverted, featherbedded work rules much more than the union benefits.

    “Sorry to dispel your myths but untill you have spent some time on the factory floor you really are not in a position of knowledge.”

    -On the other hand, as someone that spent time on the factory floor your credibility is in question. I’m a US taxpayer so thank me for the bailout. Otherwise you would be on whatever pension guarantee insurance Canada has.

    For everyone else, here is an account of life on the “factory floor”:

    http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/detroits-downturn-its-the-productivity-stupid/

  • avatar
    vitek

    “Bluegrass Dave :
    February 3rd, 2009 at 9:34 am

    Question, RF. If “High wages and taxes, ridiculous union contract conditions, union/mafia thuggishness, government and political corruption– it all pushed industry south, to right to work states,” then what moved those same industries from the low wage, no unions, pliable politicians, right to work south to Mexico and China? Clearly, other factors are responsible, such as the U.S. Tax Code and trade agreements.”

    There is really only oneanswer, the American consumer. If that consumer sees a pair of jeans for $18(US made) and the same pair for $17 (SE asia)its a no brainer, the $17 pair is bought. The US manufacturer can continue to offer the $18 pair and not make any money. At some point it has to cut its costs (move overseas) or die. The American consumer isn’t go to pay anything more for US products. Exhibit A: Wal-Mart. I realize its a different calculus with cars (negative history).

    A couple of years ago I read an article in the LA Times. Customers of a mortgage service were given a choice, have their application processed in 5 working days by a team in the US or 3 working days in India. No price difference to the customer. Something like 90% opted for the quicker turnaround and giving jobs to the Indians.

  • avatar
    no_slushbox

    This is just one more symptom of the elephant in the room that no one is willing to face.

    There is no future in high wage simple assembly jobs.

    And those has nothing to do with China or any other low wage BRIC country.

    Those countries are just a distraction from the real truth – technological progress destroys jobs.

    If there were no low wage countries there would still no future in simple assembly jobs, and other simple jobs. Those jobs would be replaced by robots and other technology. Every year technological progress gives automation the ability to replace additionally complex human jobs.

    That’s what completely disgusts me about the jobs bank. It wasn’t originally created to keep jobs out of China; if it was honestly I wouldn’t have a problem with it. It was created to stop the automation of jobs.

    In other words, the UAW created to jobs bank to limit technological progress in the United States.

    On one hand it was self preservation, on the other it was self preservation at the expense of the country, a bit like draft dodging.

    Everyone interested in the current automotive political situation should read The End of Work.

    I do not agree with all of the author’s solutions. But the author is dead on accurate about where we are now, and the two possible directions that we are headed in.

    To quote a review:

    Rifkin (Biosphere Politics, LJ 5/15/91) argues that the Information Age is the third great Industrial Revolution. A consequence of these technological advances is the rapid decline in employment and purchasing power that could lead to a worldwide economic collapse. Rifkin foresees two possible outcomes: a near workerless world in which people are free, for the first time in history, to pursue a utopian life of leisure; or a world in which unemployment leads to an even further polarization of the economic classes and a decline in living conditions for millions of people.

    I am rather disgusted that, at this turning point, liberal politicians are wasting their political capital keeping a small special interest group busy doing busywork (automotive assemblers) at the expense of lesser paid people, education, technological progress, and much more important long term political challenges.

    And for people that want to whine about China and India taking jobs, don’t. Because they aren’t. Efficient production dictates that capital (automation) and labor be mixed based on the equalization of the ratios of their marginal productivity and marginal cost.

    It is very hard for capital (automation) to compete against $1 a day, but very easy for capital (automation) to compete against $70 per hour with legacy costs. If a someone in (insert developing country here) didn’t take your job a robot would.

    Instead of that low wage worker working at relatively high wages in (insert developing country here), and funding the progression of knowledge, rights and education in (insert developing country here) that person would be busy learning how if the world is destroyed he gets 72 virgins.

  • avatar
    Bunter1

    In addition to what no_slushbox and others have said…

    One thing many miss in the “the jobs will be GONE” panic is that a huge number of people now work in industies that did not exist even a short time ago.
    Not just at McRatchow.

    As any industry matures it needs fewer people to do the same work and eventually the market saturates. The artificial supporting of an industry that is shedding jobs or is dying prevents people from moving on to other industries.

    As one who has been through lay-offs and job change/relocation, I know the pain personally.

    I also know that looking at the world/country/economy with this static, change resistant view is both ignorant of history and destructive to recovery.

    Detroit as the center of the auto universe is over. Done.
    Look forward not back.

    I think that most of us who are viewed as “anti-Detroit” are not personally hostile to the community, workers or manufacturers based their. We simply recognize what is actually happening rather than complaining that what we think should happen isn’t. Reality vs illusion.
    Choose.

    And Jennifer G.- you might wan’t to think about diversifying our states economy a bit.

    Bunter

  • avatar
    watersketch

    Wow – I gotta say that I am very impressed with the level of discussion on this topic. Thanks all for the insight here. As a Detroiter whose home equity has shrunk to zero but is still gainfully employed (outside the auto industry) I am one of the lucky ones, but I see the bad news every day here.

    The internet forums of the Detroit papers don’t have half the honest ideas that I see here. Keep it up TTAC.

  • avatar
    vitek

    Its up to 72 virgins now? Talk about sweetening the “buy-out” offer…

  • avatar
    BDB

    “I believe that if we let those 3 companies die a merciful death, new companies will start up quickly to fill the void in domestic auto manufacturing.”

    Keep dreaming. Please name a company that will fill the void. Think Tesla is going to buy up all those factories or something? Give me a break.

    “There is no future in high wage simple assembly jobs.”

    Yes, that’s why Japan and South Korea don’t make cars or TV sets anymore either. Uh, what?

  • avatar
    26theone

    If the big 3 go under the demand for cars doesnt immediately evaporate. If anything it might finally provide some stability. I know there are people waiting for the dust to settle before buying a car. Whats wrong with moving south and working for a transplant?

  • avatar
    njdave

    @BDB
    I didn’t say that a company exists now that will fill the void. I said a company would be formed that would. One or more. No new mainstream car companies have been formed in the US for decades, because no one could compete with the big 3. If they go away, a new company can form and be successful. That is what needs to happen, and soon or else there will be no domestic auto industry left to save. If we leave 3 shriveling, slowly dying entities in a tri-opoly that locks out competition, the ONLY new cars customers want to buy will come from foreign companies and once we have a generation or more of customers whose only good car experience is from foreign companies it will be impossible to get a new thriving domestic car industry going in America. Because then the foreign companies will present the same roadblock to a new domestic company that the big 3 presented until recently – the perception that no one can compete with them, so no one will try. And anyone who does want to try will be unable to get backers to fund them, so they won’t be able to try, either. That would be very sad.

  • avatar
    BDB

    @NJDave

    I think as it stands now the foreign car companies could already either strangle or buyout any start up even if the Big Three died tomorrow. It would be pretty easy to strangle them using the “American cars are crap!” meme, and failing that, takeover any successful ones.

  • avatar
    njdave

    @BDB
    There is some truth to that, but I think it could be overcome. I remember when Saturn was launched, several people I knew who would never go into a GM showroom before bought them and liked them. There was excitement there, for a while. Then GM killed it. Most of the people I know do not hate Detroit and do not want the domestic car industry to die. They do hate companies selling them crappy cars, however. The newest D3 cars are better, but they are still not better than the Hondas and Toyotas they buy. But I think they would still “buy American” if a new car company came along and put out a car better than Honda or Toyota, and most importantly a better dealer experience. The dealer experience is killing a lot of domestic sales. Any new company would have to ride herd on their dealers and keep the outrageous behavior controlled. Then I believe they would stand a good chance of success.

  • avatar
    no_slushbox

    BDB:

    “Yes, that’s why Japan and South Korea don’t make cars or TV sets anymore either. Uh, what?”

    South Korea is still relatively low Wage. Japan is heavily automated. Take apart any South Korean or Japanese automobiles or electronics, you will see Made in China very often. Japan is having huge issues with preserving assembly jobs.

  • avatar
    BDB

    Well even though I disagree on the likelihood of a new startup succeeding if the Big Three go under, at least you see the need for some kind of domestic auto industry, instead of just basically saying we should become a colonial economy for Asia.

  • avatar
    njdave

    Oh yes I agree. And I WANT a domestic car industry as well. I want to be able to buy a car I really like from an American car company. But when I bought my last car, I wanted an AWD coupe with a reasonably powerful engine, decent handling, and a stick. No American company made such a car, but Mitsubishi made the Eclipse GSX. Too bad they don’t make that anymore, either. I don’t know what I’ll get when this one dies.

  • avatar
    no_slushbox

    The Detroit automakers can be successful, or they can employ a lot of US workers with union work rules and high pay and benefits.

    They cannot do both.

    If you want them to do the latter then you are sabotaging their ability to do the former.

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