In January and February 2009, China sold more cars than the US. From all indications, the same will happen in March: The US is preparing for a REALLY bad month, whereas China reports brisk sales. If this continues, China will be the world’s biggest auto market in 2009—with nearly unlimited growth potential.
If the stars align just right, China may even end up as the world’s biggest auto producer in 2009. China surpassed the United States in 2008 as the world’s second-largest auto maker and could overtake Japan as the top global car manufacturer in 2009.
The reason is not China’s phenomenal growth; it’s the dismal performance of Japan and the US.
China manufactured 9.3 million cars in 2008 compared to 8.7 million cars in the US, iSuppli Corp. (El Segundo, Calif.) says as reported by EE Times. iSuppli estimates that China will produce just 8.7 million autos this year while Japanese auto production will drop to 7.6 million.
“China during the last five years more than doubled its domestic automobile production, while US manufacturing has declined by nearly 50 percent,” iSuppli automotive analyst Egil Juliussen said in a statement. “China will have the lowest production cutback of any nation and will become the auto production leader in 2009,” Juliussen predicted.
Meanwhile, iSuppli said, the decline in US auto making is being hastened by the outsourcing of a “major portion” of manufacturing of cars for the US market to Canada and Mexico.
China could easily end up being the world’s largest auto manufacturer since they are sitting on a mountain of capital and they are already geared for manufacturing, but, unless they are producing electric cars or promoting a hydrogen future, they are only going to increase pollution.
I honestly don’t want to buy a Chinese made car at all. If people are in an uproar about financing Islamo-Fascism then they should be just as resistant to financing Communist PRC governance.
GM and Chrysler need to combine so they can produce EV’s with Ford in the future otherwise they’ll get swallowed by the competition.
$1.39 gas this past holiday season. I should have taken a picture of myself by a gas station price sign because that (price) will never happen again!
Flashpoint, that’s funny considering our current administration’s admiration and love affair with all things Chinese. If I had to make a choice (which we probably do) I’d choose Communism any day.
I just don’t see Japan losing to China anytime soon. The U.S market is so dead it’s not even worth mentioning, but the japanese are still more than capable of putting up a good fight IMO
HighlyEvolved,
The Japanese have been in essentially a decade-long recession. The value of the Yen has only made it worse. Speaking as a tried-and true Otaku and lover of all things Japanese, there is *nothing* good about their economy atm. *especially* given their population shrinkage and lack of people at prime “car-buying” age.
Japan is demographically doomed with their current birth rate, -0.191% annually. Currently, more than 22% Japanese population is 65 or older, compared to China’s 8%. The auto market in Japan is not going to recover any time soon.
Again I’ll say it — these articles are very loose with words like “car” and “automobile”.
In case anyone cares, these reports actually refer to the the total vehicle market, including heavy commercial trucks and buses and weird looking utility trucks. The terms automobile and car do not usually apply to such. If you look at passenger light vehicles, which I suspect is what people have in mind when they see an article like this, China is a good bit behind the U.S.
From gasgoo.com, “In February, China sold a total of 827,600 vehicles, up 24.72% year on year (y/y) and up 12.43% month on month (m/m), according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Vehicle output increased 23.08% y/y to 807,900 units. Passenger car sales in February rose 24.23% from a year earlier to 607,300 units, the CAAM said.Last month, the auto sales in the United States stood at 689,000 units, down 41.3% from a year earlier, the biggest fall in six months, according to industry tracker Autodata.”
So, 607,300 passenger cars in China to 689,000 auto sales in the US. If China’s definition of a pass car doesn’t include p/u trucks, and US def of auto sales does, then they’re even closer.
In China, “passenger car” definitely doesn’t include p/u trucks. It doesn’t even include SUVs or minivans. Comparing Chinese (and to some degree European) numbers with US is tricky. In my book, the trickiest are in the U.S.: When it comes to CAFE, a pickup or a SUV is a truck, when it comes to numbers, suddenly it’s a “light vehicle”
Here in Tianjin, about the 3rd largest city in China, I see no full-size (and only a few smaller-size) pickup trucks on the road. Also, most cars sold here are quite small, cheap, minimalist vehicles. 2.0 liter engines are considered big. Mini-vans (e.g. Dodge Caravan) are considered huge and are relatively rare. Full-size SUV’s are even more rare.
Cars do not have 5-mph bumpers as in the US . . . the bumpers are simply hollow painted plastic. Foreign manufacturers (e.g. my VW Jetta) here take a number of shortcuts on safety and comvenience features . . . my US Jetta was a more complete automobile with transmission interlock, center rear brakelight, lights turning off with ignition key removal, under-hood light, reliable electric windows, etc.
Outside the city limits there are a lot of 3-wheeled vehicles with one or two cylinder engines and go-cart type mechanicals with bodies on them. Don’t know if they are counted in China’s vehicle sales totals, but I see a lot of new-looking examples.
Also, commercial transport trucks tend to be much smaller than in the US . . . averaging maybe a fifth the payload of a fully loaded 18-wheeler. Here drivers are cheap compared to vehicle costs.
One clear advantage here is that car repair labor costs, and usually parts, are amazingly cheap. A full inside/outside car wash is only $1, but the dirt falling out of the air means it lasts for less than a week.
It would be informative to see the total sales price of vehicles sold in China . . . before the high vehicle taxes here, that is. A car just isn’t the same thing in the US and China.
The shrinking of the Japanese domestic sales and the aging of the population has been a long process. Japanese domestic sales have deteriorated over many years. What is new is that Japanese PRODUCTION tanks.
Three reasons:
– Drastically dwindling exports (high exposure to U.S. market)
– Move of production to countries outside of Japan
– Deteriorating domestic market
The Chinese growth is nearly all domestic. China’s whole car exports are a non-event. So far.
@kevin:
Using a generous measure, the municipality of Tianjin is China’s 6th largest after Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, the provincial capital of Guangzhou, and the Shenzen Special Economic Zone. As a city, Tianjin with only 8m people is rather small by Chinese standards. My condolences to you for having to live there. If you want some fun, hop on the 30 minute high speed train to Beijing and I’ll entertain you. You will see an impressive and quite modern fleet of cars clogging the roads.
Yes, tricycles ( there are an estimated 15 million of them in China) and even motorbikes are counted as “motorvehicles” – same as in the US and Europe. As far as I know, they are not contained in the CAAM count. It has proven quite reliable and is based on registrations.
Sales price has no bearing on registration statistics. If that would be the case, then Europe would be the clear winner ….
As far as the Volkswagen Jetta goes (again, my condolences) it is not a “foreign manufacture.” It is made by FAW-VW, most likely in Changchun or Chengdu. For a long time, the Chinese jettas were based on the venerable Golf/Jetta Mark II of 1984 vintage – and FAW refused to change it, because it was on the top of the charts. Only last year, a new Chinese built Jetta was introduced, based on Volkswagen’s PQ34 platform, aka MkIV of 1998 vintage. If you want something more recent, then you have to wait for the new Golf, introduced by FAW this year, which is based on the current PQ36 or MKVI platform. You will find this car very much on par with its European siblings.
Welcome to China!
@bertel
Hey . . . I was in Beijing last weekend for the Green Building Conference. Yes, Tianjin has a lot to be desired. At least there are not enough foreigners here for the Taxi drivers to hone their scamming techniques. The convention center made me an obvious target I guess, but all was well after the yelling, license plate photos, and arm-waving.
Tianjin is 12 to 13 million by some estimates. May depend on where you draw the line . . . city proper or entire Tianjin mini-province.
My point above (since edited a little) is that the modern-looking fleet of Chinese cars hides a lot of shortcuts in safety/pollution/convenience/quality features we are accustomed to in the US. Counting cars in the US and China is largely an apples/oranges sort of thing.
Also curious is that cars over 15 years old are not allowed on the roads in China . . . I was considering bringing over a 1941 Plymouth for its gee-wiz factor.
Thanks for VW info . . . I’d love to have a near-genuine Golf GTI here sometime.
City proper has 8m and Tianjin municipality has 11m and change – officially. The actual numbers are always higher. drop me a line when you are back in BJ.