“A new order is emerging where the Detroit companies may no longer be the volume leaders in their home market,” says GT’s Kim Rodriguez in a release [via PRNewswire] which spins the news as an opportunity for US suppliers. The upshot is that even if the Detroit firms return to profitability by 2012 (hello, Vegas?), suppliers will have to diversify because expansion in US production is coming from the transplants. VW and BMW plan on doubling their US production capacity in that timeframe (to 1m units) while Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai will collectively add another million units. GT expects other firms to add another 200,000 units of production to the US mix by 2012 as well. Meanwhile, Chrysler and GM are shuttering plants and shedding capacity while taxpayers bail them out in the name of the “American automotive industry and manufacturing base.”
Does anyone remember the movie, Gung Ho made in 1986? Its premise was When a Japanese car company buys an American plant, the American liason must mediate the clash of work attitudes between the foreign management and native labor. Seriously if you haven’t see this, go rent it. Its terribly profitic.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091159/
‘Profitic’? Is that like trying to predict how GM will cross the Red Ink Sea?
I wonder if the economy will be that much improved by 2012 that there will be expansion in the automotive market – not just here but anywhere. Does VW really think they’re going to sell a million more new cars in 2012? Until automakers realize that north of 40 is dead there won’t be any hot market in America.
The Automatic Earth did a blog on this on June 2 based on their interpretation of a clusterstock graph. http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-2-2009-not-worry-in-world.html
In true form, The Automatic Earth is not enthusiastic about the outcome.
this is more a reaction to the NY times graphic, but I have a strong feeling that more CARS are already produced in the US by transplants than by Detroit. I counted one or two dodge products, Caddy, cobalt, and the Ford Taurus family as being made here. Contrast that along against the corolla, camry and accords.
If VW sells a million cars in the US in 2012, I’ll eat my entire Jetta service manual.
gossard267, yes Lutz was the Profit for GM, wait, check that. He made his profit off GM, that’s what I meant to say. Essentially GM wandered the desert for 40 years to find…they were lost.
Watch it and send it to your friends.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYscnFpEyA
We need to get back to a middle class designed country.
Wouldnt it be nice if GM or Chrysler could be allowed to do the same in Japan or South Korea?
VW could take off with a hot product or two and a 10yr/100k mi warranty. They could also pick up some of the better dealers that were dropped by GM and Chrysler.
I doubt that they could get to 1M; roughly 10% of the US market. They could still grow their share a good 2-4%.
I can see VW picking up some sales when/if the general public ever realizes that their TDI cars are a viable alternative to the Prius for the MPG-conscious.