“A rapid emergence from bankruptcy creates the highest probability of avoiding the catastrophic and expensive meltdown in GM auto sales that virtually all industry observers predicted,” Harry Wilson of the Presidential Task Force on Autos tells Automotive News [sub]. Note the use of “auto sales.” Because bankrupt automakers don’t sell cars, right?
Let’s see . . . GM’s sales rate in May (the last month before its June 1 filing) was down 30 percent. In April it was down 34 percent. March sales were down 45 percent . . . February down 52.9 percent . . . are we seeing a pattern here? By golly, GM sales have been improving in the final months of its 30-year (exact dates vary) slouch towards bankruptcy. Chrysler’s sales improved during its May bankruptcy and were softening in the preceding months. Fritz Henderson himself “saw signs of recovery” in the market nearly two weeks ago. But by all means, rush the bankruptcy. Meanwhile, June results will shed further light. Can you tell we can’t wait?
as sales drop steadily month by month it makes comparative declines look smaller.
GM to end NUMMI production:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090629-714435.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aaJvBLhRWBBw
GM’s ownership interest will be sold off as part of old GM. Goodbye Pontiac Vibe.
IMO it was the only car GM had worth buying which I did 18 months ago. No problems so far.
Buickman: those are year-on-year numbers. And the broader point is that the scent of death has been upon GM for decades now. A month or two in bankruptcy court doesn’t make much difference in the sweep of things. Of course, that assumes that more time ensures a more equitable outcome. Unfortunately, given the Chrysler precedent, that’s not a safe assumption.
Buickman has a point: because of the decline in sales that set in last year this time, it makes comparisons to last year’s numbers increasingly…less relevant. From here on out, monthly sales numbers are likely to increasingly look better compared to ’08, regardless.
Maybe going forward, a new/second comparison is needed, like against ’07, or some composite, or?
The sales decline numbers should be adjusted to reflect the incentives GM is giving (with my tax money!). Maybe people are not running away from GM so quick because of the $ 8,000 cash on the hood? If they had the very same incentives as the transplants and imports, they sure would have lost nearly all sales.
Of course that all is speculation. But we only can judge the company at the moment when they don’t live on tax money anymore and have to provide their own incentives, their own warranties etc.
I’m sure if all incentives were similar, more people would buy Ford, Toyota etc.
Year-on-year is the standard format for the industry. It’s apples-to-apples without reaching for the spreadsheet. Because of the standard you still see the relative movement in brands and vehicles over any time period. Most OEMs publicize full breakdowns in volume, monthly (year-on-year) and year-to-date for brands, models and vehicle types. We highlight them in our monthly sales posts and link to the breakdowns where available.
That said, anyone volunteering to perform monthly spreadsheet magic would assuredly win TTAC fame (if not fortune).
Mr Niedermeyer:
With all the snarky cubicle tools that inhabit this site and the comment board, throw down the gauntlet:
Best excel model for noticing microtrends in the global monthy sales numbers, sorted by logical political unit. State, Country, Trade Agreement, Government Loan, Political Party, Tax Incentive, Economic Union, Political Alliance/Bloc.
Also get employee affinity sales into it.
Impress us fellas/ladies.
Bankruptcy is deathly to a carmaker except when everybody knows that the state is making sure it is just a Ch11 and not a Ch7. The economy of the US is at this moment so bad that if GM wouldn’t make another car it would still be prudent policy to keep GM on life support just for the jobs. Everybody knows that the politicians think that way so there is now no fear that GM will just disappear in a cloud of smoke so no fear of buying GM
charly :
June 29th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Bankruptcy is deathly to a carmaker except when everybody knows that the state is making sure it is just a Ch11 and not a Ch7.
Not quite. I believe that most GM consumers in April and May knew that GM was headed for bankruptcy reorganization vs. uncertainty on GM’s plans earlier in the year. Less uncertainty plus enough money on the hood and a new GM vehicle compares favorably to used vehicles.
PTFOA: “Faster, Harder, Etc.”
That’s what she said!
Sorry. Anyways, the question is, will this bankruptcy really make GM competitive again? Because as far as the new lineup is concerned, I have a bad feeling that they are making the same mistakes again with the Theta platform rebadging.
I don’t want to sound like a broken record around here, BUT…IMHO the biggest problem is the Michigan UAW. To be competitive going forward, GM can’t build one more car in the Wolverine State. The labor costs are still way too high.
While the American names lost market share the foreign names gained share. This is not a model GM or Chrysler can rely on to be successful. In fact, it’s why investors and consumers abandoned them. How many drivers of foreign cars were burned by an American car? Plenty, including me. The feeling of helplessness as you face a huge repair bill coupled with “your kidding me” trade in value leaves a nasty impression. Never again.
So we are left with the government forcing taxpayers to invest in something other taxpaying investors would not. Next will come a stick to get us to buy these cars by making the other cars way too expensive. But even at higher prices I think people will buy the foreign brands and thumb their noses at the efforts to save these companies, or GSEs as the case may be.
As we get closer to market share of zero the optimism from the rah rah cheerleaders will continue to grow.