TTAC commentator Holydonut shares some of his time with us:
I don’t know if you’ve tried out the Google Trends tool to see search and news activity on google.com for some auto-related searches. First: I just put in GM, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Toyota, and Nissan to see their trends [click here]. And another fun one . . . I compared searches of “gas prices” and “mpg” to some automaker names [click here]. I filtered the lists to show only USA region searches. Searching for “Ford” is misleading since the name is so common that you get several non-auto “Ford” topics all mashed together. If you go global, then Toyota and Honda become regular names of people, so it over-states the results as well. But for the selfish USA-only view, it seems mostly valid. Unfortunately this also means comparing a search for HUMMER versus Prius is invalid. The rankings themselves against each other aren’t very relevant, but the fun stuff lies in the change of the changes in the trend due to known events. Some interesting takeaways:
1) Normalized search activity trends for Toyota and Honda tend to increase versus a stagnant GM/Chevrolet. Of course the Japanese were passed by searches for GM only one very brief period in the last 12 months due to the BK. So even though GM is in the news much more frequently, the individuals in the public are increasing their interest in Toyota over time at a faster clip.2) Post bankruptcy, search interest in the General and Chrysler reverted to pre-BK levels . . . only to spike a bit during the Clunker fad.
3) If you view the “Rank By” lists at the bottom and filter by GM and Chrysler, you’ll see that the only people who care about Chrysler and Chevrolet are in Detroit and the Midwest. If you change the “Rank By” criteria to a car brand outside of Detroit, you’ll find that Chrysler is a non-factor in any region of the USA where people tend to search for BMW or Lexus.
4) When the USA has increased interest about gas prices and mpg, they also increased interest for Honda and Toyota. But for Chevrolet, the interest was flat.
5) Replace the companies in the gas-prices search with Chrysler, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda, Lexus, BMW, and Mercedes and you’ll see they’re flat as well during the gas-crunch. The biggest red flag is that that Nissan, Subaru, and Mazda have a problem where the public doesn’t perceive them as a brand that gets them better MPG even though they’re “efficient Japanese.” At least Mazda and Subaru are niche. But what of Nissan?
6) Replace a car company in the gas-prices search with “hybrid” or “Prius” and marvel at the spike in interest.
Fun stuff…
Very interesting, but not surprising, and it does not bode well for GM & Chrysler.
Good work!
The biggest red flag is that that Nissan, Subaru, and Mazda have a problem where the public doesn’t perceive them as a brand that gets them better MPG even though they’re “efficient Japanese.”
I’d exclude Subaru from that statement because:
1) They’re the odd man out in so many ways. Subarus aren’t “efficient Japanese” if that definition is by MPG (2010 Legacy CVT excluded). Soobs are “efficient Japanese” when that’s defined as a right-sized AWD vehicle that gets pretty good mileage considering its capabilities.
2) I don’t think Subaru is even on the radar for most of the public, but their loyalists compensate for that.
3) Look at their sales success over the last year.
That said, the rest of that info was interesting. Thanks for the heads up and pointing out the Google Trends tool.
I know of at least two locatons (just in my wife’s hometown) where the Google Streetview driver left the cameras running while he stopped to gas up, thus taking you somewhat “off-road” on your virtual journey…
Not really surprising about Subaru, Nissan and Mazda.
To yon American mainlanders, “Japanese” might equal “economy”, but Subaru has never been known for fuel economy… in fact, Mazda, Nissan and Mitsubishi don’t have a good reputation for it for their economy cars outside the US, not compared to Honda and Toyota.
Thanks to the Outback and Crocodile Dundee ads, non-enthusiasts in the US think Subaru is Australian.
Very interesting, but not surprising
Surely, but having facts to point to keeps this from becoming some sort of urban myth / conventional wisdom.