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As of now, I’d say Ford has momentum and will outsell GM in the U.S. next year–and maybe even for one month this year.
Jerry Flint wonders (via Forbes) when, not if, Ford will overtake GM. Why?
GM, with its larger lineup, outsells Ford easily in cars, but the overall difference after seven months is only a 197,637-vehicle lead for GM (GM: 1,135,674 vs. Ford at 938,037). And some 172,000 of this lead are GM models to be sold or discontinued, such as Pontiac.
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How about after 8 months? Since Ford posted a 17% increase while GM was down 20%.
Did GM really think it could keep market share by axing three divisions? They will easily lose more than a 100,000 annual sales. Does anyone think people that bought orphaned cars from Saturn and Pontiac are going back to GM. At best I see GM having 17% of the US market.
you might want to edit that. it’s not Jerry York (Kerkorian’s buddy) rather Jerry Flint, the ex-Chrysler manufacturing guy who writes for Forbes & Ward’s.
I believe that it was in the July sales figures- Ford outsold GM if Pontiac, Saturn & Hummer were subtracted from GM’s numbers. I did not do the data dive for August. However, this trend (GM losing share and Ford gaining) has been going on all year now.
Once the Pontiac and Saturn output stops (I thought these brands were no longer part of GM anyway) Ford will handily outproduce and outsell GM. My prediction is that GM’s leadership will be toast as of 2010.
I always thought it was classy of Ford to do that light show.
I wouldn’t think that potential Pontiac and Saturn buyers will simply leave GM; they may choose another GM brand instead. So Ford’s ascension above GM may take a little bit longer, but they are definitely on two different tracks.
James2 :
I always thought it was classy of Ford to do that light show.
So it’s NOT a photoshop after all? Interesting.
The ham fisted way GM handled partially slimming down its nameplates and dealerships is ending badly.
When GM shut down Oldsmobile it lost almost all of the Oldsmobile volume. Those previous Oldsmobile customers didn’t move over to another GM brand, they moved out of reach.
Saturn, Saab and Hummer customers are not really candidates for any of GM’s other offerings.
Some Pontiac customers may migrate to Chevy or Buick, but most will simply go away.
Towns which used to have local Chevy and Ford dealerships suddenly find themselves with just a Ford dealership. That is going to matter when it comes time for a new car or truck.
I think Flint is right. Sometime soon Ford is going to blow by GM in North America and will never look back.
Saturn fans are livid with GM. Just look at the posting at Saturnfans.com if you don’t believe me. There is no way in hell they are going back to GM. Right there you can kiss goodbye at least 75,000 potential customers. In five years time GM will probably have lost about 120,000 customers by cancelling these divisions. I think for this reason GM’s market share will probably end up around 17% by the end of the next decade. I give Ford maybe a 40% chance of surpassing GM. Lets just say I would not be that surprised if Ford ends up being the sales leader.
GM is getting everything they deserve.
Flint has a point, particularly because it’s likely that Ford has more models attractive to the market in the pipeline. GM stalled models when money was tight.
But, he’s wrong about Lutz. The admiration Lutz seems to be able to attract is astonishing, even though if he were half the wonder he’s thought to be, GM would still be owned by stockholders.
But, of course, that’s just another reason to believe Flint’s overall conclusion will be correct.
At the risk of sounding like the chronic Ford bashers here, I have my doubts. I remember back in the mid 90’s when many “experts” predicted Ford would overtake GM by the early 2000’s. I can’t help but feel Ford will find a way to shoot itself in the foot again…without Jac Nasser this time.
Overtaking GM doesn’t sound all that impressive anymore.
Absolute vehicle numbers has no relationship to profit! Wasn’t “we sell the most” part of the problem previously?
Ford overtake GM? Niedermeyer, your coworker Farango says Ford is soon approaching bankruptcy because he claims (LMAO) it’s losing $1 billion cash per month.
Loser – Agreed, overtaking GM might not be as huge an accomplishment as it once was, but it is a great stepping stone on the road to overtaking Toyota in US sales and then Toyota and VW in worldwide sales.
akear :
September 3rd, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Saturn fans are livid with GM. Just look at the posting at Saturnfans.com if you don’t believe me. There is no way in hell they are going back to GM.
Point taken, but the problem was that there weren’t enough Saturn fans to begin with. If there had been, would we be having this conversation?
I can see Ford passing GM in the US but they have a looooong way to go to pass Toyota and VW in worldwide sales. Ford just isn’t strong enough in China and other emerging markets, where GM (China may keep the “new” company afloat) and VW are strong.
It’s improbable that Ford would surpass GM and VW worldwide, but it’s quite likely that Ford will outsell GM in North America, and soon.
(Disclaimer: was a Mopar fanboy, then became a Toyota fanboy, but we do now own a Ford product, along with a Toyota and GMC)
While GM has very publicly gone about bankruptcy and reorganization, Ford has gone about their business in a much more quiet manner. Ford has jettisoned many dealers, eliminated plenty of redundant jobs and streamlined operations all without the self-serving fanfare of GM.
IMO Ford has positioned itself with a much improved product line (while Ford isn’t the leader in every category, they have incrementally improved in almost every segment, and have developed some benchmark vehicles), and seem to have changed the corporate culture in Dearborn.
Slow and steady gains, including raising transaction prices and a constant upgrading of product, along with exciting new cars from the European division has put Ford in a position to reap the benefits of an improving economy. If Ford can tough it out until this time next year the returns on all of this change should be impressive.
Of course, there are still treacherous waters to navigate, but the upside is starting to look more possible with every passing month of increased sales. Ford will have turned the corner when sales are up over the same period in 2006 as opposed to the carpocolypse 2007 and 2008 years.