As the Brits say, it never rains; it only pours. The New York Times reports that pickup truck sales are falling into the same bottomless pit that swallowed-up full-size SUVs. Apparently, “the precipitous decline in pickup sales has been greater than many auto executives had expected.” Sure, ’cause the domestic automakers’ suits are so good at forecasting sales, or preparing for their forecasts to be wrong, or reacting when their forecasts turn out seriously awry. I’m not so sure the decline contains as much precipitation [sic] as the Old Gray Lady suggests. “When pickup sales were at their peak in 2004, the segment accounted for nearly 15 percent of all new vehicles sold. This year, pickup sales represent about 10 percent of the overall market.” And remember: even with enough cash on the hood to test their suspensions, pickups are still Motown’s number one money maker. How scary is that, Mr. GM owner? Anyway, it’s the cultural change that intrigues . . .
” . . . the biggest drop-off has been in consumers who bought pickups for personal use,” The NYT tells us. So, is that it for the urban cowboy? Are they happily motoring to the roadhouse in a Honda Pilot? GMC Acadia? Chevy Malibu?
As the only Detroit automaker with a hold on what’s commonly called reality, Ford’s ready to face the fact that the country music (e.g. “Hello Texas”) has stopped. Or not.
“The casual truck buyer is disappearing somewhat,” said George Pipas, the chief sales analyst at Ford. “Today people have to make choices between what they want and what they need. And the question is, Do they really need the capabilities of this type of product?”
Ford, for example, sold 939,000 of its industry-leading F-Series pickup in 2004. This year, through August, the company had sold just 261,000.
“We are pretty sure at Ford that we will never see pickups accounting for 15 percent of the total market again,” said Mr. Pipas. “What we’re looking at now is mostly the core buyer who needs this type of vehicle for work purposes.”
Somewhat? Pretty sure? FoMoCo supporters will see Pipas’ comments as indicative of sensible caution nad product-related prudence. As well they might. But a wider reading of the situation hints at an industry that doesn’t have a clue where the market is going next: hybrids, small cars, big cars, crossovers, SUVs, what? Meanwhile, September’s sales figures will reveal the ugly truth: it’s going nowhere fast.
It’s market share that’s dropped 5% – in a smaller market, the drop may or may not be as great as the 40% absolute sales drop suffered by SUVs. Full-sized pickups can be expensive, so I’m not surprised.
Nothing cultural. C4C drew some of the attention, plus the $5.00/gallon gas for awhile. When America’s amnesia sets in again, it will be business as usual.
Thanks NYT for stating the obvious that sales are down?
The top selling vehicle in the US through August is still the F-Series, with three of the top 10 vehicles being trucks. Wish away the truck sales all you want..
http://www.reuters.com/article/earningsSeason/idUSN0150798320090901
I may be reading these figures worng, but doesn’t a drop from 15% of total sales to 10% of total sales mean sales of pickups as a category have fallen 33.3333333(etc.)%?
In any event, this is great news for those of us in (relatively) low-slung “regular” cars. Maybe now we’ll be able to see traffic ahead rather than stearing at some gargantuan tailgate.
An alternative explanation may be that drivers haven’t abandoned pickup trucks, they’ve just decided not to buy a NEW pickup in 2009. What features does a 2009 or 2010 pickup offer that would cause the consumer to buy a new one vs. just repairing the old one? In addition, in 2009 it may be in poor taste to show off a new pickup to your unemployed friends.
“What we’re looking at now is mostly the core buyer who needs this type of vehicle for work purposes.”
Says the auto company that makes the SVT Raptor, “King Ranch”, and “Platinum” pickup trucks.
Well, when fashions change, fashions change. Ask the slap bracelet guys about that.
I see so many Explorer Sporttracs and Avalanches and huge hulking diesels with fancy rims, bed covers, and no tow hook, lets just say there’s a lot of lightly used F-150s and Rams in the repo lots these days. The whole trend was beyond me, but whatever it was, it is being driven into the same purgatory where mullets and Disco live by the collapse of easy credit. I won’t miss it. IMHO, Men should use sports cars to symbolize their virility and social status, not super sized trucks.
Maybe now we’ll be able to see traffic ahead rather than stearing at some gargantuan tailgate.
Nah, CUV’s are now blocking car drivers’ the line of sight.
Since pickup trucks result in oversize profits for the Detroit 3, the financial pain is worse than the ~60% drop (2.5 -> 1 million) in pickup sales.
@Richard Chen
Good point – staring at a CUV’s tail end is just as bad as staring at a pickup’s.
Let’s not forget the collateral damage that will be inflicted on the makers of charming objets d’ art usually associated with the pickup, such as Calvin peeing on (insert logo here), giant Confederate battle flag window stickers and Truck Nutz. The horror. The horror.
I recall reading (somewhere) that in 2005 Ford noticed that truck sales were down 15% from 2004 and started to rethink their long term survival which eventually led to their mortgaging to the hilt and hiring Alan Mulally, 2 years before GM and ChryCo were suddenly asking for money.
With Pipas at Ford mentioning a down in truck sales, it’ll be 2 years before GM and ChryCo realize it. And didn’t GM recently say it’s increasing production of trucks somewhere.
It is easy to blame the drop in pickup sales on the disappearance of the lifestyle poseurs and suburban air haulers from the market. But bear in mind that we are still in the midst of a recession, and the people who need pickups for their jobs aren’t buying them because they are either out of work or have no money left.
“Maybe now we’ll be able to see traffic ahead rather than stearing at some gargantuan tailgate.” …with plastic testicles hanging off of them.
Does this mean there is a dirt cheap Diesel pickup out there for me right now?
–chuck
A few execs at GM and Chrysler are reading this article right now, saying “whoa, this is news to me. I thought our buyers were rich and didn’t care about gas prices.”
It is easy to blame the drop in pickup sales on the disappearance of the lifestyle poseurs and suburban air haulers from the market. But bear in mind that we are still in the midst of a recession, and the people who need pickups for their jobs aren’t buying them because they are either out of work or have no money left.
Luckily they’re lasting and will see them out of this recession in good stead.
86er, yeah, but the impetus to drop the F-350 has to be even stronger for the suburban cowboy who has no need for any of it.
IMHO.. Ageing baby boomers contribute to the decline in pick up sales. From my late twenties to my early fifties,I always had a truck for a second vehicle. Great for landscape projects,dump runs,camping trips,and moving myself and lots of other peoples “stuff”.
Yeah.. like “mikey ya still got a truck?” I gott’a move a couch. What’a you do’in on Sat” Or “mikey can I borrow your truck to go to my buddies cottage?” “Dude, I promise I’ll bring it back clean this time”.
So I got pissed off and traded it in on a Jimmy.
When wifey retires the Jimmy goes on the craig list.
Life changes,and so do peoples needs.
Cheesecake has been used to sell vehicles, probably since Roman chariot times. Beefcake has no such pedigree. Did Kate choose the illustration?
Mikey! You gotta get another truck! The only kind of pickup I’ve ever driven is an OP!
They’re the best!
Oh, and if you buy another one, I promise that I’ll remember to fill up the tank this time… not just the $10 worth like the last time I drove it to Oregon. (Thanks by the way – oh, and you should have it checked out – think it’s leaking a little oil now, and needs an alignment for some reason) Don’t let ’em charge you too much!
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong! Once again, ‘It’s The Economy, Stupid’.
In 2004, blue colar workers were turning down overtime the economy being so red-hot. Every blue collar worker sent their old bailing wire and duct tape heap to the junkyard. That was called ‘relieving pent-up demand’. They now had a dependable truck to throw their tools into the back during the week and to haul the gas grill on Sundays. They’re all scrounging for a day’s work now. And holding those formerly new pickups together with bailing wire and duct tape until the economy gets back to where it was (which, I assure you, will not!).
# Commando :
September 30th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong! Once again, ‘It’s The Economy, Stupid’.
In 2004, blue colar workers were turning down overtime the economy being so red-hot. Every blue collar worker sent their old bailing wire and duct tape heap to the junkyard. That was called ‘relieving pent-up demand’. They now had a dependable truck to throw their tools into the back during the week and to haul the gas grill on Sundays. They’re all scrounging for a day’s work now. And holding those formerly new pickups together with bailing wire and duct tape until the economy gets back to where it was (which, I assure you, will not!).
Correct, except the formerly new pickups are not even close to the duct tape and bailing wire stage. Those <10 year old pickups have just now settled into the very useful somewhat scratched up but still reliable stage of their life. Pickup trucks can retain their basic utility for decades.
I’m hoping for the middle ground on this one. Sure the pussification of America is lamentable, BUT at the same time if enough people aren’t buying trucks then the price will drop and I may finally get the SVT Raptor of my dreams on the cheap. On the flipside there still needs to be enough demand for trucks else we’ll be stuck with nothing but underpowered, undersized euro-trucks (we used them in Iraq and they SUCK) or minivans. Oh the conflict!
Does this mean they pulled demand forward five years ago with aggressive ‘Employee Pricing’ and 7 year financing and ‘that thing got a Hemi?’ and now sales have dried up?
Good thing that isn’t happening now that Tax4Clunkers is over.
Personally, I blame the Man Step.
I am pretty sure that “lady” in the poster never drove a pickup truck, but probably drives a Candy White VW Beetle convertible.
@reclusive in nature: …did you just say “pussification?”
For many decades trucks were bought by people who needed trucks. Then there were a couple of really weird decades where trucks became the in fashion thing to have, and the bigger the better.
Now the market is returning to a place where people who need trucks buy trucks, but they are likely to buy the truck they actually need … not the biggest, baddest one they can find.
Meanwhile, lots of good used trucks with plenty of miles left in them are on the market as the fashion buyers get fuel price hangovers.
Nissan should take a hint and simply kill off the Titan. Now, how about a full range of more compact trucks and vans to suit the needs of commercial users? Ford got a hint and brought over the Transit Connect. How about some good SMALL pickup trucks?
“The casual truck buyer is disappearing somewhat,” said George Pipas, the chief sales analyst at Ford. “Today people have to make choices between what they want and what they need. And the question is, Do they really need the capabilities of this type of product?”
About f#$%ing time!
John Horner:
AMEN
John Horner : How about some good SMALL pickup trucks?
Mahindra is coming. With a diesel for Chuck.
6200#GVW+ for “personal” use were often depreciated quickly due to tax structure, now 1099’s have no work and or no profit to offset.
People do not pay 50K for a pickup truck with their own money.
But a wider reading of the situation hints at an industry that doesn’t have a clue where the market is going next: hybrids, small cars, big cars, crossovers, SUVs, what?
Priuses with truck nuts and window decals of Calvin pissing on a Honda Insight logo.
30 years ago pickups were utilitarian vehicles that were actually cheaper than cars.
More recently they have become blue collar luxury vehicles, and their prices are incredibly higher than those of cars.
Because of the crazy high prices, carmakers enjoyed wonderful margins on each unit.
People are now unwilling or unable to afford luxury cars, especially bad riding, thirsty fashion statements that feature a crazy high price tag.
Which means the sustaining margin provider for car companies is dying. Note that these include the same car companies that included models introduced by themselves as their company saviors– the recent Silverado or F150 rollouts, for example, clearly in the teeth of a growing recession and soaring gas prices.
Terrible product forecasting by companies addicted to high-margin crack. (As it proved out, they were absolutely correct: the fact that they were incompetent at their jobs made them deserving of free taxpayer money, hence these wrong-time wrong-product models WERE the comapny saviors).
But we already see the tide turning away from bloated (in size and sticker) pickups. Why else would Chevy be touting its new Malibu as something new, when its underpinnings had already been in the Pontiac G6 for several years. Why is Ford (and the media) touting its “new” Taurus, which is basically a refresh of the already existing Taurus, not to mention its long in the tooth Five-Hundred?
The carmakers really are pushing car models now more than they are big vehicles. Its just that they have stopped offering NEW new cars, whereas agile companies like Hyundai are coming up with completely new (I mean COMPLETELY new, not hey look at my Buick refresh new) Elantras and Sonatas every three years or so.
Case in point – the Chevy Impala. The “new” Impala (just a refresh of the old Impala) has been unchanged for, what, the 6th model year now?
All part of the pendulum swing of sales, I think.
I’m speaking as an on/off suburban pickup owner for over 20 years. Back in July I finally sold my Tacoma pickup and replaced it with an (older, higher mileage) 4runner because it suited my needs better.
For those that live in the middle of the country, the pickup is often the 2 seat sports car of the young single guy. When I was single my pickup (a Toyota, then a Mazda, then a Ford Ranger) was fine, but after I got married and needed to carry the wife and others around, the truck became impractical (as nice as it was to have on those many Lowe’s and Home Depot runs.)
Don’t forget that a lot of the pickups you see hauling air to and from the city Monday through Friday are well used as recreational vehicles on the weekend, whether they’re hauling a load of bicycles/motorcycles/atvs or pulling a boat/trailer/5th wheel.
IOW, just because the guy in the truck is wearing a tie and heading to the office on Wednesday it doesn’t automatically mean he doesn’t “need” a truck. He/she may well need it for reasons not related to work.
Second point, as 86er, George B and others have pointed out, looking only at “new” sales misses a huge segment of the market. The day when there was a significant difference between a new vehicle and a late-model-used vehicle is long in the past (along with the 5 digit odometer and the 12 month/12,000 mile warranty.) There are plenty of 2-10 year old trucks out there that are every bit as good as a new one for the things you need a truck to do (haul stuff and pull stuff.)
Frugal buyers know that if they can live without the bling factor of a new vehicle and the new-car smell, they can get a competent vehicle for at least $10k below the price of a new one.
Second point, as 86er, George B and others have pointed out, looking only at “new” sales misses a huge segment of the market. The day when there was a significant difference between a new vehicle and a late-model-used vehicle is long in the past (along with the 5 digit odometer and the 12 month/12,000 mile warranty.) There are plenty of 2-10 year old trucks out there that are every bit as good as a new one for the things you need a truck to do (haul stuff and pull stuff.)
Indeed. I am looking at “downgrading” and am looking at mid-90s Chev trucks to replace my shiny 2000 Dakota because it just isn’t seeing much use.
The stereotype-everything crowd don’t have the foggiest idea of what the truck market is really like, but Martin Albright illuminates it well above.
For example, would I consider buying a 1993 Chevy Corsica? Not in your life, are you crazy? But a 1993 Silverado? If it was looked after, absolutely.
Hippo nailed it.
The death of truck sales is more about the death of the construction industry and those jobs than anything else…
The bursting of the housing/retail/office bubble is breathtaking.