I hope our good friends over at Autoblog don’t mind me stealing their headline, but it illustrates my point about domestic automakers and their camp followers: they are seriously deluded. While you can’t fault New GM, New Chrysler and Mortgaged-Up-to-Their-Logo Ford for seizing good news like an iron chef stumbling over a plump, truffle-snuffling pig, the future’s not bright and they’re still wearing shades. While surveys like Consumer Reports headlined above may contain a kernel of truth and rally the troops, taking them as gospel instills, reinforces, and engenders company-killing complacency. I invite TTAC’s Best and Brightest to data dive this bad boy. Meanwhile, Michael Karesh: “Automotive News [sub] notes that, while Asian brands’ market share is 48 percent so far this year, only 47 percent of survey respondents reported that they would probably consider an Asian brand car in their next purchase. Two steps up the purchase funnel (might consider ⇒ do consider ⇒ buy), the percentage should be much higher than the final percentage. That it’s not suggests a sampling error.” Also, define “considering.”
I saw this earlier today, and yes, something is wrong with this survey. Which happens a lot. Without seeing the whole survey, including the full methodology, its hard to say why. Key thing is how the question is asked; if in any way it leads, overtly or covertly, the survey is flawed. And respondents are notorious for giving answers that they think they should give; i.e. “Buy American”.
More like 80% of the 50% of people who now buy domestic cars might consider another one…
I’m probably not representative of most of the American public. My favorite states are Massachusetts (where live) and Utah, I’m an atheist, I once bicycled across the country, I took my first legal drive in a Peugeot, my maternal grandmother was probably the first female coloradan to earn a PhD, and you’d have to pry my cold, dead left foot off of the clutch. But if somebody were to kill my ’99 Accord (it’s not about to die at 162k), no US cars would be on the radar screen.
Nonetheless, I would like to see the D-3 prosper — but only IF they produce cars that truly have great merit.
PN is absolutely correct about surveys.
This is irrelevant. Eighty percent may consider an American car, but only ~40% will buy one. Just look at CFC numbers.
David H:
And by truly ‘great merit’ I can only assume you mean a huge car with lots of steel, a monster big block V8, RWD, and enough horsepower to pull my house off its foundation.
The results don’t seem that unlikely – there’s no commitment in “considering”.
With the TAURUS SHO, LACROSSE and CTS out there, there’s never been a better time to buy American.
Its also not a bad time to be a FORD or GM stockholder.
Then again you probably already own GM stock* whether you like it or not.
*offer valid in US or Canada only.
With good products and excellent marketing they could do it. Obviously their backs are against the wall, but it’s not impossible. One of my buddies just bought a new focus, and for 14k it’s alot of car. No doubt they have made mistakes and they’ll have to earn their market share. Even though the survey results may be skewed it could be a lot worse. From what I have read here and via other sources almost no car maker is having a cake walk.
“…there’s never been a better time to buy American.”
Sure there has. 1967 comes to mind, but since then, not so much.
Seriously, I’d probably tell an interviewer that I’d consider an American car, and I would. However I’m over 50 and the last American car I owned was a 69 Camaro. Last American car in the immediate family was in 1978- a Caprice with the rear axle installed crooked.
So, all in all, it ain’t so likely that I’ll change my mind now, unless there’s someting really super out there. The G8? Car and Driver says the chrome peels off the doorhandles. That says the same ol GM to me.
No compelling hatches or wagons, so I’m out.
I’d buy a Mondeo though in a heartbeat, but I suppose that’s a moot point.
It’s irrelevant because 35 percent of families with debt have an average auto installment payment debt of $14,600. Those earning $100k or more have an average of $22,000 auto installment debt. Plus other consumer debt. Federal Reserve Consumer Survey 2007.
Exactly, TC. And this isn’t even “will consider,” it’s “will probably consider.” It’s considering to consider.
So my problem isn’t with the high percentage for Americans, it’s with the lowish percentage for Asians.
As Paul notes, it’s always important to see the actual survey. Unfortunately, CR rarely provides it.
Well…they may consider them…but they are buying the imports. Witness:
Camry 54,396
Corolla 43,061
Accord 39,726
Civic 43,294
Focus – 25,547
Fusion – 21,010
I am definitely considering several American cars including:
1961 – 1963 Lincoln Continental convertible
1932 – 1934 Packard convertible coupe
1930 – 1933 Chrysler sedan or dual-cowl Phaeton
1931 – 1934 Buick Deluxe 8 sedan or convertible coupe
Just waiting to find the right car in the right condition at the right price. Cash for clunkers does not seem to apply.
Twotone
It’s irrelevant because 35 percent of families with debt have an average auto installment payment debt of $14,600. Those earning $100k or more have an average of $22,000 auto installment debt. Plus other consumer debt. Federal Reserve Consumer Survey 2007.
You do realize that this doesn’t mean much, right, especially out of context? First off, this is irrelevant because you’re only saying the amount of auto debt people who are currently financing a car have. Yes, people who haven’t paid off their car still owe money on it, and wealthier people buy nicer cars and thus, on average, if they haven’t paid it off (because they’re not wealthy enough to pay cash) they owe more, but they can handle it with their greater income. 35% of people are paying down a car loan is relevant, but again, note that that percentage increases with income until you hit the highest levels. Married couples, especially with children, are also more likely to have auto debt.
You might as well point out how much money people owe on their mortgage, and that wealthier families on average owe more on their mortgages (since they buy more expensive homes), except at the very highest percentiles where they can pay cash. Also, married people are more likely to buy and thus have mortgage debt.
For example, from the Federal Reserve Consumer Survey, we see that the more money a family makes (except at the very higher percentile), the more likely they are to have debt. Naturally, this is because poor students often either don’t have cars, get an old car from their parents, or buy a used car that can be bought for cash. Also, they rent. Also people with more education, and people who are employed have more installment debt than people with less education or who are unemployed or employed as casual labor.
Looking at the survey, vehicle debt as a percentage of installment debt has actually been declining for a number of years; the problem for people has been in increasing educational debt and mortgage debt. Ratio of debt payments to family income hadn’t increased much either, and all of that is explained by people who otherwise would rent buying instead in the bubble market.
Also note that the mean figures, which you gave, are much larger than the medians, as you might expect.
Source.
@David Holzman:
Surveys say we atheists are the most distrusted group in America – though I think there’s a lot more of us than most people think.
My favorite segment is the mid-lux, ~$50K sport sedan class, and the two American entries are laughably uncompetitive in this space. When it comes time to sell my ’04 A6 2.7T, I’ll be looking at either another Audi, or an Infiniti.
I remember those ads when the current STS launched, of the ballroom scene with the E and 5 series backing away nervously when “tough guy” STS enters. Yeah, right. Both the E class and 5 series smashed the STS to bloody bits.
My favorite American cars – Auburns, Cords, and Pierce-Arrows, are all long gone.
Wow, 2 atheists commenting at TTAC. I’ll make it 3. My other favorite site, theoildrum.com, has at least 3 counting myself also.
I hadn’t completely lost my faith in American car companies back in 2004 when I bought my GMC Canyon but I have now. I’m about to tow it into the dealer because it won’t even start due to an electronic fault. The ignition is routed though the body control module and when an electrical fault occurs in the ABS system, which evidently happened, the engine will not start. This is only one of many other faults and flaws I’ve found in this vehicle.
I use the ABS sytem maybe a half dozen times a year. To me this is a serious design flaw. True safety is important, but what if this should happen in a blizzard and I freeze to death because I can’t get the truck started in the middle of nowhere.
I have no faith in GM anymore. Anyone who would consider buying a vehicle from them has to be a true believer or like to gamble just for the thrill of it.
It says that 80% of the public is considering the American brands, but those 80% could also be considering Japanese or European brands as well. However, I’m not sure if the survey mentions whether the 80% were considering American brands exclusively.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – more general interest, even if it is just consideration, for D3 vehicles is the best possible news for them right now. Rebuilding a brand and customers loyalty takes time measured in years or decades, not months. Ford is doing a great job on the product line and company stability fronts, GM is doing a good job on the product line, and Chrysler hasn’t started to pull itself out of the hole yet.
A lot of those who say they won’t consider a D3 vehicle don’t have any recent experience with them. It is understandable that the guy whose last Detroit vehicle was a ’02 Taurus might be reluctant to go back into a Ford showroom, but for those that do and see the ’10 Fusion a far better car in every regard, and not only much better than that old Taurus but competitive with the Accord and Camry, well, that is what is needed for the D3 to gain marketshare back.
There are still plenty of people who were burned by poor Detroit products seven, eight, nine years ago, and who are going to try out an Asian vehicle for their next car. That is why it is imperative that Ford and GM keep the quality up and continue to refine and innovate so that when it comes time for the car after the next car they are more than just a ‘might consider’ on the radar.
Make that 4 atheists.
With regards to the survey, I’m going to take it with a pinch of salt. As with all surveys (as we’ve seen with reliability surveys), you can make them say anything you want. In an episode of “Yes, Prime Minister”, Sir Humphrey Appleby gives Sir Bernard Woolley a masterclass in how to manipulate surveys for your own gain. I’ll adapt it for this topic:
Surveyer: Hello, Sir! May I ask you a few questions? (It helps at this point that the surveyer is a pretty lass/handsome lad (delete as applicable)).
Surveyee: Of course.
Surveyer: Do you think, as an American citizen, you should do everything you can to support this country?
Surveyee: Yes.
Surveyer: Do you believe in supporting American jobs?
Surveyee: Yes.
Surveyer: Would you like to support and keep manufacturing in the United States?
Surveyee: Yes.
Surveyer: Do you believe in keeping money within the United States and not exporting it abroad?
Surveyee: Yes.
Surveyer: Do you think the country should get a return on its investment?
Surveyee: Yes.
Surveyer: Would you consider buying a car from an American brand?
Surveyee: Erm…yes?
The surveyer has co-erced the surveyee down a particular route, whereby the surveyee can only give one answer without sounding like a hypocrite. Now see how easy it is to get the opposite reaction.
Surveyer: Hello, Sir! May I ask you a few questions?
Surveyee: Of course.
Surveyer: Do you believe in free market economics?
Surveyee: Yes.
Surveyer: Do you believe in practising socialism in any way, at all?
Surveyee: No.
Surveyer: Do you believe that failing companies should be supported by the government, even if they can’t turn a profit?
Surveyee: No.
Surveyer: Do you like the idea of a person on minimum wage, paying their taxes, and those taxes being used to support jobs which pay more than $35000?
Surveyee: No.
Surveyer: Would you boycott any company who gets bailout from the government?
Surveyee: Yes.
Surveyer: Would you consider buying a car from an American brand?
Surveyee: Erm…no?
Okay I am the contrarian on the board. I grew up in a family that only purchased foreign auto’s. My first three cars were made in Japan. Three years ago I was in Dearborn Michigan for a meeting. I stayed at the Dearborn Inn, the hotel is practicaly in front the new Ford F-150 plant. I had some free time so I decided to take a tour. I actually left with a changed mind about Ford. The new plant was complelty green,the roof of the plant was even bio as it was entirely covered with what is essentially a garden. At the end of the tour they actually had Ford workers available to talk to. Long story short, the workers that I spoke to all knew the quality gap between them and Toyota’s of the world, but really beleived that they had turned the corner. Flash foward a year, we needed a family mover, we where driving a Mazda MPV it was close to its death. We did our homework, testdrove and finally bought a Ford Freestyle. We love it. Its a great car. This summer my small SUV needed replacing, I test drove almost every small suv on the market and finally bought a Ford Escape. I can not speak to the quality of GM or Chrysler, but I have now have two Ford cars in my driveway. Why?, because I thought they were the best products. Bottom line, does the survery mean anything, maybe, maybe not. But if I am any proof, some Americans are looking at American cars for the first time in a long time.
As an atheist who has designed surveys, conducted surveys and pondered survey results, I can safely say they mean nothing. The questions can be stilted, intentionally or unintentionally into meaninglessness.
That being said, when it’s time to get a new car, I’ll “consider” an American car. But that means looking at pictures on a web site.
There’s a sucker born every minute. – P.T. Barnum
After buying domestic cars for decades we could no longer tolerate the poor designs, shoddy quality, and deplorable customer care. We found European brands even less reliable and more costly to maintain and repair, though they unquestionably drove better.
We now drive Japanese brands exclusively, genuine Nippon-made cars with a “J” VIN prefix. Distressing evidence is mounting they, like PT Barnum and the Detroit-3, believe the world is filled with gullible people who will keep coming back for more abuse. We’re thinking Korean next; the Genesis looks good.
We’re a long away from buying a domestic car notwithstanding our generation typically aspires to riding a Caddy into the sunset. If so, it will belong to the undertaker who will put up with the oil leaks and dealer nonsense.
Not an atheist, I’m a devout pagan of the Dionysian persuasion. Ive got the spares to keep my 3 1988 vintage cars going for another decade at least. My next vehicle purchase will prolly be an American car, a 40-70 year old one.
Make that 6 athiests.
I too believe this this survey was manipulated and is being used only as pro-Detroit propaganda. Either that, or the 80% of people are all considering Fords.
I don’t think Consumer Reports got their survey wrong. The “very likely” to consider an American brand number was 53%, so the 80% number includes the I might think about thinking about it group.
CR claims to be comparing this year’s survey to a similar one last year, and in that comparison found that Ford’s consideration rate is up 17% amongst new car buyers while Chrysler dropped by 25%. Considering the relative goodness of those two companies’ product lines, that makes sense.
The quality and desirability of Ford’s products has improved dramatically over the past four or five years and they have been getting lots of good press for that and for their hybrids. For much of the car buying populace, hybrids are the new halo cars.
After reading the whole CR piece I’m not inclined to throw stones at it.
A lot of people online say things like “I would never buy a car from Detroit, BUT I still support them and want them to prosper.” That is almost like saying “I support the troops, BUT not the war effort.” But I also have to ask…What does your religion has to do with making a car purchase?? Beats me why that matters here.
But this is the same thing I reads on the thousands of posts across the net. “I had an X-model Chevy and the tie rod snapped therefore all Chevys suck and Americans can’t engineer a good car.” Fortunately, the old shitty quality image at Ford is being tossed to the trash. I had the opposite thing happen where my aunt bought a Toyota Avalon after reading all the articles about it and hearing “raves” on discussion boards similar to this one. It was the worst auto purchase she had ever made. Transmission was blown at 14,000 miles. Now, I vow to never buy an Avalon BUT I will not paint an entire brand as shitty just for one car.
2 atheists commenting at TTAC. I’ll make it 3.
Methinks these posters doth protest too loudly.
Who cares if you’re atheists?
So enough on the subject….. Perhaps a nice quote to close the subject out?
“Everyone believes in something…. I believe I’ll have another drink”
No wonder you atheists out there have had bad experiences with domestic brands. Remember, your car won’t suffer breaks or wheezes, long as you got a plastic Jesus, sitting on the dashboard of your car.
How can you be an atheist and a car buff?
Doesn’t the fact that crappy cars continue to be designed and produced prove that there must be some sort of divine intervention going on…?
“I love my Dodge Caliber….”
Every time I hear that I think Oh, God.
Thanks Robert for covering this news item. Following the discussion, I thought I’d add some detail, though more information is available in the original report.
The random, nationwide survey measured the pulse of the American car owner, exploring issues of ownership and purchase intent. (The data was collected via telephone interviews with 1,777 adults in households that own at least one vehicle.)
The questions were crafted to seek information without influence. The “American” angle came from asking by brand, not based on the word “American” – which clearly has become fuzzy in the auto industry.
We explored the likelihood to consider a domestic-branded vehicle, compared to those from Europe or Asia. Consideration is different than a true purchase, but this finding was quite interesting, suggesting a patriotic mindset. Further, it identifies an opportunity for the domestic manufacturers, if they can deliver products that excel in the virtues that matter most to consumers.
So, the good news for the Detroit 3 is that about 80 percent of consumers are considering buying from them. In other words, they have a better chance than foreign competitors of converting shoppers into buyers. The ball is in their court.
We have blogged specifically on the American theme, providing more detail:
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/2009/09/survey-car-buyers-look-to-buy-american-sound-off-on-concerns.html
# Flashpoint :
September 2nd, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Its also not a bad time to be a FORD or GM stockholder.
Then again you probably already own GM stock* whether you like it or not.
*offer valid in US or Canada only.
————————————
1) As of now, there is no GM stock.
2) No, you don’t, or show me your stock certificate.
derm81 :
September 3rd, 2009 at 10:05 am
But I also have to ask…What does your religion has to do with making a car purchase?? Beats me why that matters here.
—————————————
Yes, it does.
For an atheist, it’s like “prove it before I can believe it.”
For a religious person, it’s like “it’s my faith and no proof is needed (or I will prove with my bible — a “buff book” published by the organization itself)”.
The attitudes could be applied to cars and gods.
I bought a new Ford F150 for my business last week. It replaced a 2002 Toyota Tundra. I am 40ish and this is the first “domestic” car I have bought – ever. But I bought it on it’s merits – it is the best truck on the road right now for my use.
I am more than willing to buy domestic as long as they don’t produce garbage.
I’m pretty sure the “consideration” involved in this amounts to being aware of a certain model’s existence, nothing more. Worthless, headline-making fluff.
gsp:
Same here. I’m 41 and recently bought a Ford Taurus X for my wife to schlep our two children (with the third on the way) and dog around town. It replaced a 2003 Saab 9-5 wagon – great car, ultimately too small. First domestic car I’ve ever owned, and I’ve owned 20+ cars in my life.
After comparing to the Pilot, Highlander, CX-9, etc., we bought it on its merits. It simply had the best combo of safety, features, economy, seating flexibility (important to us) and space. So far, so good – it’s been great through the first 5000 miles of ownership.
I was always willing to buy domestic when I felt a domestic car represented the best car in its class. To date, the Taurus X was the only one that met that criterion. Going forward, I will at least consider Ford in any future buying decision (provided the T-X doesn’t self-destruct).
I’m Catholic, live in Michigan, and work for a supplier to the auto industry. I’d consider a CTS if the styling appealed to me more, but I’ve got my heart set on a BMW. Used of course.
If I were in the market for a truck I’d get a Ford.
Well, I suppose that since I bought a Saab I technically DID buy a GM car, but I try not to think about that too much.
I would certainly consider (and even buy) a domestic American car if they actually made anything that suits my needs. Which would be a medium small station wagon (not CUV) with excellent gas mileage (min 30mpg hwy in the real world), a MANUAL transmission, without AWD, and excellent handling. Prefereably for <$25K. Of which the Detroit three make exactly, uh, NONE. The closest would be the Cadillac CTS Wagon, which is too expensive and fails my excellent gas mileage criteria anyway.
After stupid rebates and discounts, my 9-3SC fit like a glove. There are actually DAMNED few cars from any manufacturer that met my criteria. Lots got culled by the three-pedal requirement. Without the discount, I would have a Jetta TDI Sportwagen in my garage, but the Saab is sooooo much more fun to drive. I don’t drive enough on my own dime to care about the fuel economy difference.
WetWilly,
According to Edmunds, the top two — and three of the top four — selling C4C vehicles were Fords.
1. Ford Focus
2. Ford Escape
3. Honda Civic
4. Ford F150
5. Toyota Corolla
Looks like at least one domestic manufacturer did OK by C4C . . .
I have bought 2 new cars in my life. One ancient history (1985) and one recent (a 2007 Honda Fit.)
Frankly, I would have liked a US car, but there was nothing offered in the class I was considering. The Fit and the Versa were the two choices. The closest misses from a domestic company – Focus (no thank you), Cobalt (no way in Hell, and I am Catholic, so I mean it) and a Caliber (as an old Mopar kind of guy, I wanted to like the Caliber, but just conldn’t do it.) Trust me, I could have saved a lot of money with a domestic, but it would have been settling, not getting the best car in the class I was looking in.
Of the nearly 30 cars I have owned, all but 4 or 5 have been domestics, and they have been among my favorites. I can guarantee you that for my next car, whatever it is, I will consider a domestic brand. They just have to prove to me that they want my business by building something that is appealing and offers quality and durability. What I really want is an Expedition EL, but I need the economy to improve first. And I will probably buy it used.
I currently have a Volvo and an Infiniti in my garage. We’re expecting, so I went out to look at some minivans this weekend. At the Dodge store, I saw a Dodge Charger R/T with the Road and Track package that I felt I had to have. The Volvo is a leased XC90 that will be up next year and the G35 is paid in full. I came pretty close to considering trading the Infiniti (my wife was even on board) for the Dodge.
In the end, I couldn’t bring myself to trade our dead nuts reliable, paid for, made in Japan G35x for a Dodge. I do wonder what kind of deal I could get (sticker @ 38k) on the R/T though. Maybe I’ll take a drive over this weekend.
The only other US car I would consider is the CTS Sportwagon but it may be a bit on the small side for our needs. I will drive it when it comes to my local Caddy store.
So, I am considering domestic brands; whether or not I buy is another story. I’ve purchased 3 new Ford products in my lifetime and they have all been fine.
I have a deposit on a new TR40 Mahindra. Does that help?
Make that n+1 atheists. Maybe the first queer one tho.
Well, I have put in (through my bank’s car-buying service) a bid on a 2009 Nissan Frontier V6 4×4 manual, which is about $5,000 off MSRP. I really don’t expect that such a truck even exists in the entire northeastern US but WTF, I want.
Anyway, point is: it’s made in Smyrna, TN. Some part of that money goes back to Japan, but it’s doing as much, maybe more, for US workers as buying a Mexican-made Ford or soon, cars from China with a GM label pasted on. Whee.
Brand is no longer relevant and companies are, uh, spinning their wheels chasing non-existent brand loyalty. That died a long time ago.
I’ve never owned a Nissan, but I want a small(er) truck, and the deals are far better than what Toyota’s got, the Ranger is an absurd dinosaur of a truck that nobody should buy, and the GM/ChryCo offerings are lame, thirsty, unpleasant, and ugly.
Remember that US consumers buy about 15 million new cars each year. That’s 300 million consumers buying 15 million cars (10 million this year). The statistical error is enormous, considering that more than 95% of Americans will not buy a new car this year, and most will never buy a brand new car.
I believe the Supreme Being prefers American cars, specifcally Plymouth. After all, it is written: He drove them out in his Fury!