The tires v.v. chicken war has sent stock exchanges lower. It has the price of rubber plunging. It has people deeply worried. The Wall Street Journal has arrayed comments from economists around the world who call the Obama decision everything from “something really stupid” to “disappointing news.”
State-run Chinese news agency Xinhua trotted out their own team of experts, which came to the conclusion that “the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese tire imports could escalate trade disputes between the two countries, but a full-blown trade war is unlikely.” What, no trade war? Wait, there’s worse.
What is interesting is that Xinhua gives wide coverage to the opinion of Stratfor, the “global intelligence company” as Xinhua labels them. Today, Xinhua carries a lame quote of Jennifer Richmond, China director at Stratfor, who opines that “this has the potential to be one of the more difficult points in U.S.-China relations.” Also, “it could affect the global economic rebound if it fired up further.” Where’s the beef?
It just so happens that just as Xinhua put this piece on the wire today, Stratfor’s paying customers received a piece by Stratfor with a completely new angle:
Under the heading “Chinese tire tariffs and U.S. plans,” Stratfor explains the not so immediately obvious: “In fact, the sanctions decision does not have much to do with China at all. Instead, it is an effort by the U.S. president to shore up support within his political base—specifically the United Steel Workers—before the congressional vote on his health care plan. The American president needs all the domestic support he can get at the moment and simply cannot afford to lose the unions.”
Stratfor then goes on to muse that China’s WTO complaint was likewise made for domestic consumption only: “For China, the challenge will be to bark with the ferocity of a Doberman in order to craft the image at home that China cannot be pushed around, but to nip with the strength of a chihuahua to ensure that the United States does not actually push it around.” So will they just (yuck) kiss and make up?
Stratfor thinks that China could retaliate elsewhere, “wholly outside its trading or financing relationship with the Americans.” Elsewhere: for instance, Iran. “The Obama administration is sliding toward confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program, specifically in the form of gasoline sanctions intended to make Tehran more pliable. China has the ability to supply gasoline to Tehran directly, provide shipping insurance for third parties to do the same or simply to block action at the U.N. Security Council, thereby denying any sanctions regime full international legitimacy in the first place.”
China plays an important role in the discussions about Iran’s nuclear program, if they will ever happen. Furthermore, the White House just expressed hopes that the tires will lose traction and not “cause friction on other issues of interest to the two countries such as the North Korean nuclear standoff.”
Xinhua usually avoids Stratfor’s insights on matters Chinese. That Xinhua draws attention on Stratfor on the same day Stratfor mentions the health care v.v. Iran conundrum, is far too coincidental.
Stratfor is really George Friedman, neo-con self styled intelligence analyst of Austin, Texas. Just because he says something doesn’t make it true.
That fine young fellow must be working on his enviromental merit badge.
How is this article relevant to the focus of TTAC?
John Horner:
The interesting part is that Xinhua gives Stratfor wide coverage the same day. As I said, usually they never mention Stratfor on Chinese matters … Xinhuaology is a complex craft ….
Whatsanobeen:
Supposedly its about tires, cars (exported to China,) and, well, chicken. Haven’t you heard?
How is this article relevant to the focus of TTAC?
1) Tyres are involved, cars use tyres. TTAC is about cars.
2) USA export cars to China, in more or less the same amount of money as the tires they import from there. Chinese can be pissed of about this decision, and well, ummm, raise the tariff on US made cars. USA gets PWNED, someone will LOL, except the UAW workers.
3) The chicken… is a bonus.
Easy enough.
Not sure if tires are where we should draw the line in the sand, but any sentient being should be able to see our multi-billion dollar trade deficit with China (and just about everyone else as well).
Somewhere, sometime, we have to begin an attempt to level the playing field and address the disadvantages we face at the hands of our ‘trade partners’.
If we don’t begin to bring back, and/or at least stop the deportation of jobs overseas… “do ya want fries with that?” is going to be an executive level position in the US, and WE are going to be the third world country.
“Stocks opened lower”…blah blah blah…screw Wall Street(!), a bunch of drama queen crooks who would rather sell their grandmothers into sex slavery if it brought a short term profit, than do the hard work of protecting American economic viability in the long term.
I’m surprised that China has not announced a counter tariff on imported chicken feet from the US.
Believe it or not, we export a lot of them to the middle kingdom.
Oldandslow: 96% of US chickenfeet exports go to China …
“Stocks opened lower”…blah blah blah…screw Wall Street(!), a bunch of drama queen crooks who would rather sell their grandmothers into sex slavery if it brought a short term profit, than do the hard work of protecting American economic viability in the long term.
Very well said, and true. That’s where we are today. And hopefully Obama can put a stop to it, but I doubt it.
Now the US has a band called Chickenfoot, too. We can export them to China and see what we get for them!
it must be Fry-day..
“Bertel Schmitt :
September 15th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Oldandslow: 96% of US chickenfeet exports go to China …”
How many chicken feet crossed the road?
RE: chicken war – playing chicken with Iranian nukes? Reminds me of that great Nashville classic by Cowboy Troy – “I played chicken with the train…”