In January 2009, China surpassed the USA as the world’s largest car market. Since then, the gap had widened month after month. While China is clocking in near triple digit growth rates, US sales are still down. Even GM’s Henderson believes that China will stay ahead of the USA for quite some times. “It’s not a blip,” Henderson said to AFP. Now, eleven months later, the news transpired to the Freep.
Funnily, they learned it at a conference of real estate developers, an unimpeachable source of reliable information. “China surpasses U.S. as top vehicle market” trumpeted the Freep yesterday, as if it’s news.
At the conference, the executive of a Chinese industrial real-estate developer said that the Chinese “are expected to buy as many as 50 million new cars and trucks a year by 2020.” That little tidbit (if the prediction will come true, China will buy three times as many cars as the USA in its 17m SAAR heydays, and the peak oil faction will suffer a coronary) remained uncommented. Apparently, when the Freep found out that China had passed the US of A, the paper became speechless.
Urghhhhhh….nah, just kidding, don’t worry Bertel, us peak oilers are already aware of this….it is the SUV drivers who will be having heart attacks!!
Have a read below and see if any of this makes sense…..full article after the jump at the end of the quote is very much worth a read….
http://www.epmag.com/Magazine/2009/11/item47352.php
P.S Good luck with fueling those 50 million cars!
If you cant be bothered to read it all….
“Peak global petroleum liquids (including unconventional and biofuels) production of 85 MMb/d set in May 2005 has been exceeded only in two months subsequently. Non-OPEC production peaked in May 2005 and has not seen that level again.
Looking forward, there are few optimists. Some analysts believe the July 2008 production number of 86.7 MMb/d will represent “practical peak oil,” arguing that, given the adverse impact of the recession on oil production, by the time the oil industry ramps up production again, accelerating production decline rates from existing wells will dominate new production additions.
Others, including the EIA, some oil companies, and Douglas-Westwood, take a somewhat more positive view and do not discount the potential for the oil supply (including unconventional and biofuels) to grow to around 100 MMb/d at peak. The EIA, in particular, sees the oil supply at 106 MMb/d in 2030, although one might note that the EIA has progressively reduced its forecast from 118 MMb/d in the last three years.
Demand, on the other hand, has enormous potential. China alone could increase its demand from around 8 MMb/d to nearly 45 MMb/d by 2030 if it follows the path of South Korea at similar stages of development. Other countries — notably India and Brazil — could see their consumption increased by 12 MMb/d over 2005 levels. And importantly, if invisibly, the other non-OECD countries could increase their consumption by nearly 28 MMb/d. This may be surprising, but the “other non-OECD” comprises many countries with a population of 2.5 billion, including all of Africa and the Middle East; all of South America excluding Brazil; and places like Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the rest of Indo-China. The oil demand of these countries rarely merits individual comment in the press, but collectively they represent a population almost as large as China and India combined and the lion’s share of population growth to 2030. Even if the advanced countries were assumed to hold consumption flat over the period, global oil demand might be expected to nearly double and approach 160 MMb/d by 2030, assuming the oil supply was available at affordable prices.”
Relax Sutski! Biped hominids had to give up eating mammoth meat, and wearing mammoth hides, which at one time, was totally unthinkable and incomprehensible.
China’s auto industry has a lot in common with American and European automobile history from about 100 years ago. That is, lots of manufacturers, lots of partnerships evolving and dissolving, companies appearing and disappearing overnight, patent infringement, not enough roads, no where to get gasoline conveniently, questionable reliability, a lack of understanding about rules of the road, questionable safety practices for motorists, questionable safety practices for workers, questionable amounts of pollution being created.
We know all that. What we don’t know is “How much of all that will China put up with before they throw the bullshit flag?” Chinese cars don’t have a reputation for being reliable or durable. GM could build old Chevettes and Vegas and be ahead of a lot of the products being cranked out now. Ford could breed a Pinto with a Bronco II and create an econobox that tips over and explodes. That would be an improvement over much of what’s getting cranked out of Chinese factories.
So the point is, if the rest of the world’s auto companies are going to survive, how can get into that market? It’s developing. How can they apply their expertise? It would be real easy to lose money on every car, but make it up in volume. And why isn’t the UAW over there trying to organize the workers and protect them from their dangerous working conditions and oppressive corporate masters?
If you really want to get palpitations, the keep in mind that 50m cars by 2020 assumes an annual growth rate of only 15%. As we have seen over the last few years, China is good and capable for much more. Assuming a linear growth rate of only 25% , then 50m cars sold annually would be reached some time around 2015. For the first nine months of this year, China’s vehicle sales increased 34.2%.
Yep. If you want to make money, you sell them in China or you’re a dummy.
People in the United States holding onto their used paid off cars / trucks / gas guzzling SUV. Well, most people anyway (sold my old Honda).
China is also facing a population bubble. long term projections based on the currently VERY productive population (that is only getting older) may be a bit… misguided.
The local governments of China have a mandate to enforce one-child policy for city residents and two-child policy for rural residents. Thus, they typically under report the real number of births. You are detached from reality if you think China’s poplulation is going to shrink.
The Chinese population bubble is a myth <a href=”http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ch/Age_distribution”> China is looking quite healthy </a> compared to <a href=”http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ja-japan/Age_distribution”> Japan </a> or <a href=”http://www.nationmaster.com/country/gm-germany/Age_distribution”> Germany </a> .
Sorry for the mess above. The editing function does not work. All I see is a white box …