Hybrid sales in October outpaced the market, increasing 11.4% over October 2008. The heavy lifter as usual, was Toyota, up 15%; Toyota’s hybrids now represent 77% of the total US hybrid market, which is 2.9% of the total market. The Prius continues to dominate the whole hybrid sector, with a 55% market share, and sales of 13,496 units. Prius outsold the Honda Insight by an 8 to 1 margin.
Other Toyota hybrids showed mixed results: Camry: down 50%; Highlander: down 32%; Lexus RX: up 155%; GS: down 77%; LS: down 62%. But the new Lexus HS 250 sold a very respectable 1,527 units, only slightly less than the Insight.
Honda’s Insight (1,739 units) is a sales dud, only modestly improving on last year’s Civic hybrid numbers. Seems there’s more to the Prius’ success than its body shape. The Civic Hybrid (down 85%) is becoming irrelevant.
In light of the highly-hyped new Fusion/Milan hybrids (1,333 units), Ford’s 14.3% increase in hybrid sales looks feeble. Escape/Mariner hybrid sales dripped 53%. This continues the raise the question as to whether Ford’s hybrid program is anything other than a PR/EPA/Govt. fleet sales gambit, with volumes limited purposely because Ford’s hybrid costs likely exceed incremental revenue.
GM sold 1,159 hybrids, down 23%, out of its arsenal of various hybrid technology systems. Nissan sold an irrelevant 229 Altima hybrids.
VW sold 4,008 TDI units in October, which represents 24% of total VW sales. TDI share of models sales is: Jetta SportsWagon: 90%; Tuareg: 45%; Jetta Sedan: 26%; Golf: 19%. Total Jetta sales: 3658. VW’s total diesel sales represent an amount equal to 16% of the hybrid market.
Again Ford Motor sold more hybrids in the U.S. than Honda (2,282 vs 1,978). A distant second to Toyota, but second place nevertheless.
Honda still leads YTD hybrid sales 31,936 vs. 28,298 of Ford.
Maybe Ford should ‘less focus’ its hybrid Escape/Mariner sales on Taxi, Gov’t, life guard etc fleet sales and focus more on real customers.
At Oct.’s selling rate, it’ll take, um, 11.9 months to catch up to Honda. Shot, poor Ford is going to lose the BIG chance to brag its second place in hybrid sales for 2009. Oh, poor Ford, may be its time to reinvent a year of 24 months.
The Prius really does hit the sweet spot for those that value MPG’s and green cred in a new car purchase. The Insight is a half-assed copy that is only slightly cheaper. The Civic doesn’t get the Prius’s MPGs and doesn’t look like a hybrid. The Escape/Mariner is expensive, hard to find, and not as efficient. The Fusion/Milan is expensive and not as efficient. And diesel cars are expensive and still suffer from all the negative diesel stereotypes as well as being dirtier than gas hybrids.
Seems there’s more to the Prius’ success than its body shape.
I would argue that it’s not that simple. Look at how far all the “standard design” hybrids fell. Seems that there IS something to buying a hybrid – in general – that has to do with it looking like a hybrid. (The lone cited exception being a large increase in RX400h sales)
And in any event, we’re only talking about a market of about 25,000 vehicles…
ret :
November 5th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
And in any event, we’re only talking about a market of about 25,000 vehicles…
—
Toyota sold as many hybrids as VW sold all cars combined…
Honda has two recent flops on the record books now. The Acura RDX and the Honda Insight. Honda has a relatively narrow product line and cannot afford flops. I hope they figure out how come the company which once did so many things right has lately been getting so many products wrong.
The Prius nearly outsold the entire VW brand, so it’s not surprising that it far outsells the Jetta TDI.
However, if you look at it from a different perspective, diesels make up a greater percentage of VW sales (24%) than hybrids do of Toyota sales (12%).
I don’t know that either factoid really means much, though.
MrDot :
November 5th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
…And diesel cars are expensive and still suffer from all the negative diesel stereotypes as well as being dirtier than gas hybrids.
No, Volkswagen diesel cars suffer from the Volkswagen negative stereotype of being unreliable and expensive to repair plus they insist on selling them with plastic seats. I couldn’t detect any diesel smell or smoke when I test drove a Jetta diesel. If Toyota or Honda offered a similar diesel for the US market, consumers would assume it was reliable unless experience proved otherwise.
But VW diesel rattles like hell, if you’re inside the car next to it at the traffic light.
If you really don’t realise you’re driving a diesel car, be careful not to put gas in. It has happened to many careless diesel drivers in the U.K. LOL.
Uh, did any of you try buying a TDI last month? They’re nearly impossible to find- VW is selling every one it brings over here.
I hope they figure out how come the company which once did so many things right has lately been getting so many products wrong.
The company that once did so many things right didn’t follow the herd, they did their own thing. The company that once did so many things right also maintained a narrow focus, only doing a few things but doing them exceptionally well. Honda has been trying to branch out into every segment of the market one way or another, and has even tried creating some niche vehicles with little success. If Honda scaled their lineup back a bit and focused all of their energy on making just a few nameplates great, they’d get their mojo back.
@wsn
I think the point he was trying to make is that 25k cars is the entire market of hybrid sold in Oct.
F150 sales 39496
Silverado sales 31754
Sierra sales 11894 (only to show both GM Models)
The Prius is the only real player in the hybrid market right now. The Insight was too poorly executed to work here. When people talk about hybrids, it is really the only one that people consider. Many others pick Corolla, Civics, Cobalts, or Focus.
http://www.examiner.com/x-1017-DC-Car-Examiner~y2009m11d4-Trucks-are-big-again-and-other-October-2009-new-car-sales-results
VW isn’t producing a 1/3 of as many TDIs as Toyota is hybrids. Its obviously going to skew the shit out of these numbers. Id say these numbers only show how popular the TDI is.
We just rented a 2010 Prius for three days as an extended test drive. Notable for us (once past the electronic whizbangs) was the hatchback configuration and interior space (you can load up at Costo), stability and solid feel on the road (although the steering is on the numb side), and good views of the road and passing scenery (no gunslit windows).
The gas mileage was excellent, of course, but it was factors other than its hybridness that impressed us.
Honda has a relatively narrow product line and cannot afford flops.
Honda needs to admit to itself that what it thinks people should want and what they actually buy are two different things. There’s far too many products coming out of Honda that seem more like an executive, designer or project manager’s pet than a real product.
When Honda gets over its ego and sells cars people want to buy (eg, the Civic, CR/V or Accord) they sell well. When they think they know better (most of Acura, both Insights) they fail. They’ve done this for years, by the way.
Toyota, to it’s credit, isn’t nearly so arrogant.
If anything, this shows how successful the Jetta TDI is, especially compared to the Insight. I would have guessed that the Insight, not the diesel, was selling in numbers 25% of the Prius.
Dethroning the Prius looks a lot like dethroning the iPod, it’s hard to get into a market when the consumer associates the market with a single product.
@ psarhjinian
Don’t forget the Ridgeline.
Honda builds crap. Not nearly the crap Subaru makes, but Honda is one of the few manufacturers willing to put out a crappy car and justify its crappiness by telling us it’s “reliable” or “sporty” (but likely neither)
The Prius is doing just great but it’s probably at its very peek with every wind blowing into its sails.
Wait for the crosswinds to hit; Oil to tank (back down to $40 a barrel next year); the Republicans to get in and hopefully consign much of climate change junk science to the bin where it belongs; industry cost cutting to the bone with uber-competitively priced vehicles.
The Prius’ complex, over-weight, over-expensive lardy weight won’t look either green or quite so clever (which it isn’t anyway quite frankly!).
For me, the more interesting figure is the Prius being the 10th most popular US car, and within shooting distance of the 6th spot which is the Civic.
Ford F – Series 39,496
Chevrolet Silverado 31,754
Toyota Camry 30,136
Toyota Corolla 25,717
Honda Accord 23,210
Honda Civic 15,868
Honda CR-V 15,667
Nissan Altima 14,773
Toyota RAV4 13,971
Toyota Prius 13,496
At 14% growth (Prius), it won’t be long before it overtakes the Civic.
Honda would not be amused.
@ Spanner77
You clearly have inside info.
Tell you what, I’ll buy 10m Nov 2010 barrels for $50/barrel each.
As you’re sure that the price will be $40, you can make 25%, a tidy profit for you.
How can I contact you to get this deal done?
hello everyone, I am a long time lurker but a first time poster. I would like to say:
It is funny how people speculate that oil will go down/up but people should consider that hybrids have a side benefit of developing future technologies such as batteries, solar cells, etc. Those who claim that their S-Class is superior should be happy to know that previously exclusive features such as radar-cruise control are now available on a 25-30k Toyota vehicle; this same vehicle is also equipped with features such as a solar panel roof that is unavailable on the S-Class. Many take abide by the theory that “fewer parts=greater reliability” yet the Prius was ranked more reliable than a conventional 4-cylinder powered Mazda-derived Ford. Current CR reliability ratings have placed one (grouping Fusion and Milan together) model above most in the midsize sedan category; we shall use this data to predict and validate the reliability of all vehicles built by Ford. Ford is now superior to Toyota in every way. Toyota can’t even get its floormats correct and we hate the Prius which outsells our beloved Taurus. We shall claim that the TDi is far more efficient than the Prius by stating freeway mpg figures and ignoring the fact that diesel has a greater energy density per volume than gasoline. Ford will turn around completely based off the Fusion and Taurus even though they may lose the police, taxi, and livery market dominated by the Panther Platform. Global Warming is a farce and we should heat up the Earth so that we will not be so cold in the winter; the Earth will magically fix itself long after the human race has become extinct so we should consume as much stuff as we can while we are still alive.
Right now a lot of people (relatively speaking, of course) want to buy a VW. VW are also planning on expanding significantly into the US market. This is really the time for VW to walk the walk. If these Jetta diesel drivers (I really wonder how many are new to VW?) have good experiences with both car and dealer then things may look up for VW in the US. If they blow it with poor dealer satisfaction and/or owners living at the service department I think VW can kiss the US goodbye.
I gave up on Volkswagen 15 years ago when they decided what they really wanted was to be was BMW instead of VW. Phaeton anyone? The Prius 3rd Gen is sweet regardless of prognostications on the price of barrels which will really only drop when there are more hybrids and plug ins on the road driving the cost down.
TTAC review ratings:
Prius 1/5
Jetta TDI 4/5
Haha on the lackluster Milan+Fusion sales; after all the hype about them, they were actually outsold by a much more expensive Lexus Luxury hybrid (HS 250).
As to the TDI, LOL. The VW Beetle was cool (just like the Prius), but I don’t even know what a TDI looks like – it’s just one of the many faceless cars out there.
drifter, the second Prius review was a 5/5
Honda’s leadership has become fat, lazy, bureaucratic, careerist, insular, and stupid, kicking the can down the road to retirement riches. Many of them need to be fired.
One positive aspect of the Insight disaster failure is that it is clearcut enough to set someone at the company thinking, “Perhaps it is not the Insight that failed. Perhaps it is Honda that is failing.”
Are these global stats? The Golf TDI isn’t even on VWoA’s website but it got a 19% share of Golf sales?
Petemoran
Oil, like all commodities, is blessed to be the nodding donkey that faithfully follows and just underperforms inflation year after year. Then every 12yrs, or 40, we hit recession and investors/speculators pile in which (briefly) drives the price high. Why? Because the cretins in Washington are debauching the currency by printing money like its wallpaper to plaster over the cracks, US Govt debt and banking debt.
Investors don’t want their money trashed, so they go to the ‘true’ currencies of the world, commodities, like oil and gold. Clever stuff.
So reason Oil is high, like gold, wheat etc, is investors are piling in, and the US Govt, run by cretins like Geithner and cronies at the Fed that do their bidding, is trashing the Dollar by printing it. But this can’t go on. Indeed the Fed is giving ‘wind down’ signals about withdrawing all this cheap wallpaper. It should happen over next 6 months.
Then this bubble in oil prices will return to normal, probably quite rapidly, back to oils usual trudging nodding donkey (my gues is June-Aug 2010) even if we might spike to $100 before we return to base.
No I won’t take you bet on oil, my timings not quite accurate enough to date the month this WILL occur
Prius Outsells Jetta TDI 4 to 1
…sob.. as the Jetta TDI driver, I’m crushed….
Actually, I’m stunned. The Jetta TDI came that close? Things are really changing. Consider the full-court press of both the media and word-of-mouth for the Prius (You too can drive the most boring computer driving video in history!), I’m surprised the TDI did better than 5-8%. *If* VWoA really piled on the ads and their intensity…or if they had the cars to sell to increased demand, they could double or triple what they’re selling…and recreate the VW brand as hot, gotta-have. They could do a MINI with the efficient car that’s fun to drive. But they won’t. Yawn, they say. We could be a winner. Yawn. But why try to be the Apple of cars, when they can coast along, clueless, with a fantastic line of car that they hardly bother to push or market. Do we really havta import the Polo and the UP? Puleeze, you’re disturbing our beauty rest…snore…
Oil, like all commodities, is blessed to be the nodding donkey that faithfully follows and just underperforms inflation year after year.
Errr, not really. The inflation adjusted trend is at worst flat or upward since the 1970s.
The US Energy Information Administration has maintained a low/high case outlook for at least 20 years that I recall. The low-case has never materialised that I’m aware of.
No-one that I work with believes the low price case, because there is a much more significant cost floor under current oil production.
We’re working project budgets on $100/barrel in 2010, expecting it to be higher on developing economy demand.
With regards oil “speculators”, this discussion is useful.
I generally love VW cars and currently own one. My GTI will be 2 cars in 1: my first and my last VW. I’ve had it not yet 3 years and it has been to the dealer for warranty-covered defects 10 times. It is paid for and I do really like the car, but I won’t be buying another vehicle that requires that many things to be fixed in 50k miles. It is just now out of warranty, so I’m mentally preparing myself for what is going to fail next and how much it will cost me to fix it. Again, I love the car… it is simply irritating to live with sometimes. My 1st Subaru gave me similar troubles but it had 80k miles and was 7 years old when I bought it. My 2nd Subaru had 2 sensors (knock & O2) fail in 6 years of ownership.
@PeteMoran :
November 5th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
For me, the more interesting figure is the Prius being the 10th most popular US car, and within shooting distance of the 6th spot which is the Civic.
Ford F – Series 39,496
Chevrolet Silverado 31,754
Toyota Camry 30,136
Toyota Corolla 25,717
Honda Accord 23,210
Honda Civic 15,868
Honda CR-V 15,667
Nissan Altima 14,773
Toyota RAV4 13,971
Toyota Prius 13,496
Aaaaand here are the top 10 of the German market in September, just to show it’s a different world…
# 1 VW Golf/Jetta: 37,785
# 2 Skoda Fabia: 10,785
# 3 Opel Astra: 10,578
# 4 Ford Fiesta: 8,848
# 5 Opel Corsa: 8,336
# 6 VW Passat: 8,189
# 7 Mercedes C-Class: 7,738
# 8 VW Polo: 6,796
# 9 Audi A3: 5,627
#10 Ford Focus: 5,542
Some American favorites are doing less well:
#63 Toyota Auris: 1,288 (closest thing we get to a Corolla)
#69 Honda Civic: 1,158
#74 Honda Accord: 991 (OK, that would be the US TSX)
#89 Toyota Avensis: 743 (closest thing we have to a Camry)
#93 Toyota Prius: 707 (second best month ever)
#97 Honda CR-V: 669
RAV4 is not in the Top 100, and Nissan doesn’t have a mid-size in Europe
@ Mirko Reinhardt
Thanks for those. Not a BMW to be seen. Where does the first one place?
@trollthattellsthetruth :
Those who claim that their S-Class is superior should be happy to know that previously exclusive features such as radar-cruise control are now available on a 25-30k Toyota vehicle; this same vehicle is also equipped with features such as a solar panel roof that is unavailable on the S-Class
You can get laser guided active cruise control on a Golf. It’s nothing special. Solar panel roofs have been available on Audis and Volkswagens since the late 1980s. You can get one in a humble Seat or Skoda. Nothing special.
http://www.webastosolar.de/en/
You can get aftermarket solar moonroofs too.
*If* VWoA really piled on the ads and their intensity…or if they had the cars to sell to increased demand, they could double or triple what they’re selling
You know why they don’t build double or triple the number of cars? Because they wouldn’t be able to sell them. If they could sell them profitably, they would build them.
VW sold fewer diesels of all types last month than Toyota sold of the Yaris alone. Diesel just isn’t that popular in the US. The numbers tell the story quite plainly. Why it’s so important for some to believe otherwise, I don’t know.
@PeteMoran :
Thanks for those. Not a BMW to be seen. Where does the first one place?
The 1- and the 3-series both used to be Top-10 sellers with more than 10,000 units a month until mid-2008.
Now it looks like that:
# 13 BMW 3-series: 5,323
# 16 BMW 1-series: 4,759
# 38 BMW 5-series: 2,219
# 78 BMW X3: 954
# 83 BMW X5: 816
#100 BMW 7-series: 661
An for fun, Prius sales in Germany in 2009:
January: 121
February: 253
March: 269
April: 90
May: 86
June: 187
July: 549
August: 585 (A few hundred of the July/August Prii were promotion cars for the Toyota sponsored 2009 Athletics World Championship in Berlin)
September: 707
We are actively in the market for a fuel efficient hatchback/wagon. When we called our nearest VW dealer about a wagon TDI, we were told that before discussions went further we would have to give them a deposit.
As if.
VW diesels may be great, but the dealer experience is so poor and vehicle reliability has been so low that we went no farther down that road.
That BMW is putting $4000 on the hood to move the diesel 3-series tells you something, I guess. But, the reality is that diesels and hybrids are appropriate for different types of uses — a point infrequently made. If most of your driving is stop and go commuting, averaging 25 mph and never exceeding 35, the hybrid is the car for you, because it does not idle and it recaptures braking energy. On the other hand, if stop and go driving is not you, and you do a lot of driving at speed, then the diesel is the far better solution. Hybrids really don’t help in those circumstances, and their extra weight is literally a drag.
Perhaps, in their subconscious way, most Americans actually realize that for the kind of driving they do, the hybrid is a better solution than the diesel, leaving aside the diesel’s bad reputation in America from the 1980s (MB’s indestructible 4 and 5-cylinder diesels aside).
The question is:Will Honda be able to admit to this failure on their part. Honda has had so many market misses in the last decade and they seem to ignore their failures. That’s do-able but not if you continue to fail. Who at Honda figured that smaller than a Prius, less MPG than a Prius would be a success because its $2k cheaper? Leave cheaper to Hyundai and Kia( and soon the Chinese)
Honda is pissing away it’s good name all accross the Honda product line.
My wife and I recently traded our 2006 Jetta TDI for a 2010 Honda Odyssey. The TDI was a great car. We logged over 94,000 miles with zero problems. My only complaint is that required maintenance like the DSG service and timing belt replacement were horrifically expensive.
The VW dealers are a mixed bag. The local dealership where I bought the Jetta was a bunch of jerks. The other local dealer where I always had the car seviced was honest, polite and professional.
When we needed a bigger vehicle we didn’t even consider VW. A Jetta Wagon or Passat wagon would be pricey to maintain, and the Routan combines VW’s price premium with Chrysler’s reliability.
Honda may have erred with the Ridgeline and the new Insight, but one thing they have nailed is the minivan.
@ Mirko
Thank you for your clarification. I am ignorant in that regard; my knowledge only dates back to 1999 and it only encompasses the US domestic market and some JDM. One thing that I have never seen mentioned here is the possible higher maintenance costs for a diesel. For example, I know that diesel pickup trucks there is a fuel/water separator that must be replaced like a fuel filter and that diesel oil (for the engine) is usually more expensive than oil for gasoline engines. I also don’t know if this is still true but the TDi 1.9 liter sold here a few years ago required a special specification of oil per Volkswagen.
@ Bruce from DC
Perhaps, in their subconscious way, most Americans actually realize that for the kind of driving they do, the hybrid is a better solution than the diesel
So says the guy who lives in DC… Is that where “most” Americans live? Perhaps in a land of 300,000,000 people there are a few who have a long highway commute? Of my current 15 mile commute, 12 is on the highway. In my last job, it was more like 35 of 45 miles. Would a hybrd have been right for me?
I’m not saying you’re wrong that a hybrid is a good idea as a city car, but not everyone lives and drives in a city, so your “most Americans” statement is a bit myopic.
@trollthattellsthetruth
The 1.9 litre PD TDIs do/did require VW 505.01 oil. Although since a lot of them are now out of warranty, some people are starting to use 505.00 oil like Mobil 1 Turbo diesel truck.
The current 2.0 litre engine also requires VW 507.00 approved oil. VW dealers are supposed to stock Castrol SLX for the new cars, but there are other oils that meet the 507.00 spec.
>>Uh, did any of you try buying a TDI last month? They’re nearly impossible to find- VW is selling every one it brings over here.<<
Actually, I did. They are long oversold. I also tried to buy the Audi A-3 diesel in it too was oversold.
I ended up buying a BMW diesel which was sold out but available to order for present production which means mine will be here later this month. Diesels are actually selling better than most people realize.
As to the OP's comment on being dirty, he hasn't looked at diesels that meet the current emissions standards. Run a handkerchief into the exhaust of a new BMW diesel, they run it into the exhaust of a Prius. You won't need two hankies. It will still be clean after being in the exhaust of a BMW diesel. You'll have to throw it away after it comes out of the Prius, though…
@ PeteMoran
I agree, it is interesting to see the Civic so low, I haven’t been tracking Civic sales, so I don’t know exactly why that would be. The Civic is going on its 5th model year with the current design, while the Prius just had major upgrades. It will be interesting to see how this plays out later.
Honda really can’t seem to nail the hybrid technology:
1st gen Insight: Great mileage, but too much of a science project. Pity it was not around when 2008 and $4/gal hit, though…
Accord hybrid: Here’s an idea: performance hybrid! Unfortunately, most customers expect great mileage from a hybrid, and performance not so much. Failed marketing?
Latest Insight: To add insult to injury Honda gave up and tried to “just copy the #$@# Prius”. Except the copy is not close enough to the original in key metrics. Whoops.
Back to the drawing board, Honda.
Peter Moran
Thanks for the links. Doesn’t matter which way you look at the oil price, it’s pants at beating inflation. Consider you need to double your money every 10yrs to stay level and oil, like all commodities (wheat, cocoa, gold etc), underperforms.
The spikes we see at times of recession brings commodities back up to the average trend line for inflation, but only briefly. Gold, silver and oil have been at oil time highs but these still fall quite a ways short of inflation (which suggests gold still has a ways to go).
Regards ‘Nobelled’ Krugman he states “telltale signs of a speculative price boom are missing”. Apart from the tanking of the Dollar there’s no other explanation than what i’d describe as investors seeking safe harbour as their currency is trashed by Govt printing presses combined with speculators piling in to ride the wave.
Krugman gives iron ore as example. But like oil and copper the demand curves are almost flat and the supply plentiful. We’ve oil coming out of our ears, even supertankers anchored all over the world with billions of gallons of the stuff. Sugar has seen a 300% price rise but poor harvets in India and Brazil were cause. Namely there was a shortage of demand. No such luck in either supply or demand to explain the oil price spike to $140+
Regards “there is a much more significant cost floor under current oil production” i presume you’re referring to an averaged global cost floor, including higher costs to extract deep sea oil. An averaged cost base is academic, but not reality. Saudi oil still costs little different to extract today as 30 years ago ($1.50 per barrel). North Sea or Mexican Gulf oil approx £3.50 per barrel.
The market cost just depends on where you choose to buy. We know the Saudis are pumping at only 50% capacity. If they wanted they could floor the accelerator anytime they like and blast all other producers, particularly deep sea companies/countries, out of the water (pun intended).
Doesn’t matter which way you look at the oil price, it’s pants at beating inflation.
Did you notice the chart was already corrected for inflation?????????
currency is trashed by Govt printing presses
That sounds like a Conservative talking point rather than a serious argument, but again the oil price chart I gave you was already corrected for inflation.
even supertankers anchored all over the world with billions of gallons of the stuff.
Mostly because the Saudis WILL NOT give the stuff away. A little cabal called OPEC needs to keep a higher and higher minimum price for their economies. The Chinese have made offers for “all” that “supertanker stored” oil at $35-$40/barrel for their reserves but have been knocked back repeatedly. India too.
Saudi oil still costs little different to extract today as 30 years ago ($1.50 per barrel). North Sea or Mexican Gulf oil approx £3.50 per barrel.
Errr… I’ve no idea where you’re getting those figures, but they look nothing like the ones we work with via our petro-connected/contracting clients.
We know the Saudis are pumping at only 50% capacity.
The Saudis (to keep using your example) have never provided auditable proof of their reserves, and they very definitely are trying to preserve a higher price. Many in the industry suspect that have hit a significant peak. Anyone who claims to know rates/reserves is guessing.
Saudi oil still costs little different to extract today as 30 years ago ($1.50 per barrel). North Sea or Mexican Gulf oil approx £3.50 per barrel.
Perhaps true, but.
One of the tenets of peak oil is that all the oil that’s cheap to find and get out of the ground (like S.A.) has been found, that we are now prospecting for the stuff that’s harder (=more expensive to) find and extract. Witness your own words: $1.50 from S.A., vs. $6. for your underwater sources. And I wonder if your extraction price covers the exploration price. It’s got to be hideously more expensive to search for oil underwater and in the Arctic than it is in Texas.
Peter Moran
What you do in Saudi is stick a straw in the sand and suck. Not very difficult is it and cheap as chips to extract?
Where do your “petro-connected/contracting clients” get their costs from? Have they got gold plated platinum tipped straws? Looks to me like you’re being shafted over a barrel by industry spin on their costs!
You adjusted for inflation graff is inaccurate. Oil has plodded around $25 a barrel for decades. Adjusted for inflation it should be over $100 a barrel as a matter average today. Instead it barely scrapes above $60 for brief periods.
One minute you argue the Saudis are holding out for higher prices, next you say they spurn cheap Chinese and Indian offers. Connect the dots!
Your average cost rise for oil is based on more expensive to extract (deep sea) oil. The truth is it’s as cheap as ever but the Saudis choose to ‘allow’ competitors to develop knowing full well they could put peddle to the floor at any point with their $1.50 cost base, flood the market with cheap oil and level the competitors inside a year.
Regards Saudi peak oil well we all know the ‘strictly audited’ international oil reserves are a joke. This is a game of poker where everyone holds their cards to their chests. World reserves are colossal and getting higher every year. It pays not mention this fact of life.
Stewart Dean
“Peak Oil” is bunkum. Leftie loons appear every 40 years with shrill cries the end of the world in nigh. They came out of the long grass last year aided and abetted by the left leaning Western media as they did in the last big recession in the 70’s. Where are these cretins now for their fabricated looney tunes?
Oil is produced by the Abiotic process, a process deep in the Earths mantle. Namely it is constantly replenishing reserve for mans use. It is sustainable and infinite for mans purposes. It will never run out.
Large hydrocarbon deposits have been found on Titan, one of Saturns moons. Oil is not the result of dead forests or dead Dinos.
Many companies and mainly countries seek their own oil deposits for a novel idea called “energy security”. That’s their choice, and their expense. There has been no danger to secure oil supplies, we’ve enjoyed 100 years of reliable unbroken supply. You couldn’t ask for a more secure or reliable energy source. McDonals will run out of chips before we have oil shortages.
Dear spanner77:
If you persist is treating other appenders as idiots, as you have above, will we either descend into flame wars and/or thoughtful people will go elsewhere than TTAC. Your tone is that of Beck or Malkin or O’Reilly: ferocious pejorative attack and not a whole lot of substance.
I’d love for you to be right, for there to be cheap petrochemicals forever…it’d make things a lot easier for our kids. But the vast majority of the *hard* science people are telling a different story.
Sure, you can always find a few scientists to sing your song and be deaf to the rest…
Strive to be civil and reasonable and debate in some good faith. Let’s keep our enthusiasms from becoming holy wars.
Oil is produced by the Abiotic process, a process deep in the Earths mantle. Namely it is constantly replenishing reserve for mans use. It is sustainable and infinite for mans purposes.
Phew, that’s a relief. Is there anything we can do to make sure the “replenishment” rate is greater than ~85million barrels per day?
I have to say I’m a bit surprised to discover we’re still living in the Jurassic or Cretaceous periods.
@ Spanner77
I prefer the latest theory not the more dated one and hope you do too.
I prefer donuts over danishes, but I know I’m wrong.
EVERY petro geologist I’ve worked with starts the oil exploration process looking for rock formations, at the very least, in the many many many millions of years old. Strangely enough they find oil at those ages, suggesting the “crackpot” carbon deposit theory is proving it’s worth.
I’m familiar with the abiogenic “theory”, and no-one has discovered anything resembling a commercial resource using that theory. Not to mention those inconvenient diamond-like crystals found in all oil deposits (oh, and the carbon dating) which tend to make the abiogenic theory harder to explain.
It’s also based mostly on a false and unscientific premise from Kudryavtsev that “no one had made oil like substances in the lab from organic matter”.
Even allowing for expodential growth in demand from upcoming Inida and China it’s going to be coming out of our ears for at least another 1,000 years.
This is just laughable. To think some people believe this carp is just incredible.
Pete Moran
You may prefer donuts over danishes but you don’t find either on Titan, Saturns moon. You find huge deposits of hydrocarbon deposits on Titan but no dead dinos or old rotting vedgetation.
Regards geologists looking for oil in million year old rocks i think you’re confusing old rock with producing oil. We find oil bubbling to the surface. Is oil therefore 2 months old?
Namely oil is a product of the Earths mantle and pressure. It seeps up through rocks (passing million year old rock just for being there). Oil is found in rock formations nothing to do with dead Din or forest times. We have not only surpassed all possible quantities of dead Dinos and dead forests but we also discover oil wells are not finite, they just keep (self) refilling.
Regards 1,000 years (and counting) of oil left being “laughable” i think you should have a laugh at the worlds estimated world oil reserves. Every year we consumer more, every year the reserves seem to actually get larger. Yet we still hear the shrill cry of “peak oil”. This of course plays into the hands of those that like a high oil price for a basic commodity coming out of ears.
The UK’s stated oil reserves have been 4 years left. That’s been for each of the last 40 years. We should have run out 36 times by now yet still we’re pumping the black stuff and just increased license explorations for the North Sea to find more. This oil industry, just such a laugh isn’t it?
Saudis stated official reserves were 260 billion barrels. The Saudi oil minister admitted some years ago it was nearer 1.2 Trillion barrels.
Are you disputing my estimates on Saudi or the oil sands or world demand or just calling them “crap” and laughing. If so can you state your estimates rather than reply to fact with laughing gas?
If you can’t see the motive behind the oil industry perpetrating limited reserves or the dead dino myth and hiding real oil reserves then stick to baking donuts. I may put cries of “peak oil” down to the loons of the left but I can certainly see why so many geologists on oil company pay rolls keep perpetrating myths.
You find huge deposits of hydrocarbon deposits on Titan but no dead dinos or old rotting vedgetation.
Sure, look hard enough and the ingredients of cheese are there too.
I can certainly see why so many geologists on oil company pay rolls keep perpetrating myths.
Oh yes, we’re surrounded by conspirators. Did you check under the bed this morning?
Those within the oil industry want nothing more than to destroy it, inside the next 30 years preferably.
You find huge deposits of hydrocarbon deposits on Titan but no dead dinos or old rotting vegetation.
The reason for that is that hydrogen is the building block of the universe and there’s a lot of carbon,too and they get together a lot. The process is abiotic in the sense that biological processes as we think of them are probably non-existent in crucibles of most stars are planets. Gas giant planets like Saturn and Jupiter have atmospheres largely comprised of methane and, yes, it’s a hydrocarbon gas and yes, no dinos.
But.
That doesn’t mean that if you use up a substance that has an combustion energy potential (like oil) that more of it will be magically made because the Creator likes us and automobiles.
The only thing that would make more of it would be for energy to be reapplied to the building blocks again, as it was before and since the Cretaceous to make more of that substance.