Kelley Blue Book has released its annual resale value data, and according to the WSJ, Toyota, Honda and BMW remain the top brands in five-year residual value. Still, Toyota’s average residual value dropped from 42.7 percent to 38.8 percent, while Honda fell from 44.5 percent to 38 percent. Those drops mirror an industry-wide decline in residual values, which had hovered around 35 percent for some time, but have fallen to about 32.6 percent for 2010 models. But American brands have bucked that trend:
KBB estimates Ford’s 2010 models will keep 32.4% of their value after five years. That’s an improvement—for 2009, KBB put the residual value of Ford’s models at 31.7%. Likewise, GM’s 2010 five-year residual value is 31.3%, up from 29.5% a year earlier. Chrysler’s figures are 29.5% for 2010 models, compared with 29% for 2009 models.
KBB’s top ten models for five-year residual value after the jump.
- MINI Cooper Clubman
- MINI Cooper
- Honda CR-V
- Toyota RAV4
- *Toyota Tacoma
- *Toyota Prius
- *Chevrolet Camaro SS
- BMW M3
- Chevrolet Corvette
- Audi A5
* denotes tie
I’d love to see the top 5 lowest in the list….
Has anyone checked KBB’s projections from five years ago against what has actually happened? Guessing what a 2010 new car will be worth as a used car in 2015 is more art than science.
Excellent point John.
Anyone here with some time on their hands want to crunch the numbers and see if these guys know anything?
Frankly a rise in the estimate for Chryslers products seems counterintuitive.
Bunter
The Mini? Really? I’m surprised a discretionary car would be that high up the list?
Here are the 2005 KBB resale award winners.
2005 Acura TL
2005 BMW 5 Series
2005 Infiniti G35 Coupe
2005 Lexus GX 470
2005 Mazda RX-8
2005 Mercedes Benz CLK 320 Cabriolet
2005 MINI Cooper
2005 Nissan 350 Z
2005 Porsche Cayenne
2005 Volvo XC90
The Mini was listed back then too.
I am not sure that there is a bigger factor in theoretical vs. actual resale than gasoline prices.
Ran the numbers today at work and using NADA, Manhiem and Galves the variable was a couple of hundred dollars amongst the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord and Ford Fusion. Kelly’s percentages are correct, the thing that I factored in that equals them out is the Fusion always has a rebate larger than the other two. As of today the fusion has $1,500.00 on the hood. The Camry as best I can discern has $500.00 and I would guess the Accord the same. When you reduce the purchase price of all three by the cash they are equal withing a few dollars one way or another based on condition. What is not told is that with Honda’s continuence of leasing that if you buy one of their cars and trade it within 2 years you’ll never get book for it on trade because I have seen many 2 year old Accords of various trim levels sit with untouched door handles on used car lots because you can lease a new one for the same monthly’s. Toyotas, not so much but still an issue. I’m not saying they don’t sell, they just sell eventually.
I often help relatives and friends buy used cars. I am more interested in the “Bottom 10”, used cars with an outstanding price to value ratio, good cars that are shunned by the public for no really good reason reducing their resale value.
You’ve just described my car-buying strategy. Overpaying is overrated.
There are an awful lot of good luxury cars on that list, I’d imagine. The Germans hold their value, but you can pick up used American luxury for a song. I’ve had my eye on a 2004 Lincoln LS, and it’s selling for less than V6 Accords with 100k on the clock.
For some reason, the Ford Focus seems to depreciate at an astonishing rate, too, which is odd, because they’re not bad cars at all.
Coming out of lurking to second this one. In fact, I’d really like a separate TTAC posting about such vehicles. Steven Lang? Hello?
What the average consumer must keep in mind is that the true cost of depreciation is measured in dollars, not percentages. For example, while a $40,000 vehicle retaining 40% of its value sounds impressive, a $33,000 vehicle retaining “only” 32% actually costs you less in depreciation.
Another thing to keep in mind is that future values are speculative and subject to change, whereas a higher up-front cost is guaranteed to cost you more in principal, interest and taxes. That big BMW or Toyota price premium should not be seen as investment… it should be seen as an added expense on which you might get a partial refund.