Toyota plans to roughly double its global production of hybrid vehicles to 1 million units in 2011. On the surface, this plan doesn’t sound too ambitious. Hybrids are flying off dealer’s lots in Japan. About 350,000 hybrids were sold in Japan last year, accounting for 11.9 percent of total sales. Toyota’s Prius took the lion’s share with 209,000 units sold. Honda’s Insight made up for another 94,000 units. Less that 50,000 were “others.”
And herein lies problem number one for Japanese hybrids:
“To develop the uptrend into a bona fide boom at home and abroad this year, Japanese carmakers must find a way to expand sales beyond a mere two offerings,” writes the Nikkei [sub].
Last year, the Japanese government offered tax breaks and subsidies for purchases of less-polluting cars. Toyota and Honda timed their releases of the Prius and Insight models to coincide with these measures, causing a run on their showrooms.
The stimulus will not last forever. The current program will most likely be extended until September of this year. Beyond? Unlikely.
Abroad, hybrids are all green talk, but little action. Sales in China and the USA are disappointing. In Europe, hybrids have yet to gain traction: The Prius accounted for 7 percent of Toyota’s European sales.
Other Japanese manufacturers are not helping. Honda is scheduled to unveil only the hybrid CR-Z sports car and the hybrid version of its Fit subcompact this year. Says the Nikkei: “It will not be able to sell a large number of CR-Zs because sports cars are a niche product, and the Fit will not hit the market until the second half, limiting its full-year sales potential.”
Nissan will roll out a hybrid version of its Fuga luxury sedan this fall, its first hybrid model for the Japanese market. No huge volume sales are expected from the high-end model.
So for 2010, it looks as if hybrids will remain mainly a Japanese affair, and that Prius and Insight will do the heavy lifting. Once the Japanese subsidies end, all bets are off. Suddenly, the 1 million Prii (Priores?) do sound a bit ambitious.
This isn’t solely a JDM-related comment, but perhaps people are coming to the realization that depreciation and insurance often cost more than gasoline, especially in a hybrid where the owner may not drive much. Yes, fuel cost is the most regular and visible of the cash expenditures, but I think there’s a bigger trend going on right now–the trend of overall financial prudence that may not include the purchase of a new car whose claim to fame is fuel economy.
Further, the fuel economy gap between the Prius and other cars is much smaller in Europe and Japan, where small economy cars and diesels are far more common.
If that’s true, it comes down to an environmental decision for the buyer, and I suspect that in times of recession or uncertainty, most people err on the side of caution with their personal finances rather than the nebulous concept of infinitesimally improving the environment through their own actions.
Just thinking out loud.
Big-T are starting production of their first large volume non-Prius vehicle this year in the UK: the Hybrid Auris (European version of Corolla). I imagine this will be the litmus test of how well a hybrid powertrain in a ‘normal’ car can compete against the low CO2 offerings using standard technology. Will the HV Auris take sales away from a Golf Diesel?
I reckon pricing is going to be a big issue on this and the extent to which the EU puts pressure on national governments to convert their car taxation schemes to become fully based on CO2 emission levels. Meanwhile, other OEMs will continue the two-pronged attack: on one hand, keep saying that diesel satisfies all environmental concerns (as long as no one talks about those nasty particulates which do so much to turn asthma into a modern plague). On the other hand, (let’s call it the French approach): try and kid everyone that hybrid is so last generation and that buyers should postpone changing powertrain choices until the new, best-ever Electric Vehicles come on stream, available to buy with big fat gov’t subsidies.
The trouble for Big-T is that they don’t really have any friends in Europe who are going to create a snug little tax-incentive incubator from which they can grow their niche.
All hybrids still get a free pass on the London congestion charge, though, right? While that’s not as aggressive as the US tax incentives for hybrids, I’m sure it helps a bit. Which is sad, since (as TG series 10 pointed out in one segment) this exclusion also allows big cars like the Lexus RXh in for free, while excluding many other, more efficient and cleaner vehicles based on traditional powertrains.
I think ash78 is onto something re: hybrid sales in Europe. It would, I suspect, be more difficult to make a case for a more complex, more expensive technology in a market where buyers already have so many relatively inexpensive, relatively high mileage choices. Also, different markets in Japan vs. Europe vs. the U.S. represent very different driving environments. Hybrids do best in dense urban environments which is one reason that Japan is the biggest hybrid market while buyers in Europe and the U.S. are less enthusiastic. For Toyota to expand global sales of hybrids to 1 million units by next year would be very ambitious.
Also, and I know this is a bit off-point, it’s a bit of a stretch to refer to the CR-Z as a sports car.
How come I can’t see any pics accompanying the posts? All I see are X’s and the title pic…
@Ash
Transport For London (London municipal authority responsible for setting the Congestion Charge) is reviewing it’s policies to give all HVs a free entry into London City Centre. There are now a bunch of vehicles with much lower CO2 emissions than certain HVs who still have to pay those charges. Of course, this isn’t really the issue.
European Union air quality targets are trying to pressurise national governments to reduce particulate matter in so-called “Urban Canyons”. Most low-CO2 cars are diesels. Most low CO2 cars also achieve this by having very greatly refined combustion – fuel is sprayed in much finer droplets into the combustion chamber resulting in a more efficient burn/ energy release. The unfortunate corollary of this is that the Particulate Matter is also much smaller.
Euro V diesel standards required a DPF filter on the exhaust to restrict PM emissions to 10 parts per million I believe – this is essentially the visioble black soot you can see when someone accelerates an old diesel hard. Leaner burn means that the PM becomes increasingly small, so it doesn’t get trapped in the DPF but it buries itself really deep in your lungs, nicely evading all those little hairs in your nostrils.
HVs don’t do that (nearly as much – there’s still some odious stuff that comes out of gasoline, but HVs tend to burn gas much more consistently). Which is why they make so much sense in city centres. Most OEMs would like to confuse the issue by saying they have low CO2, but that relates to the Greenhouse Gas Effect and is not the primary purpose of the congestion zones.