A while ago, we predicted that China’s March new car sales might exceed expectations. We came to that conclusion by reading the usually reliable tea-leaves of the March GM sales. They came in at 68 percent above March 2009. Using them as an indicator, growth of overall March sales in China could be in the 50 to 60 percent range. Analysts polled by Reuters think the number will be 30 – 40 percent. It looks like they are wrong.

Official numbers aren’t out yet, but strong numbers of other manufacturers keep rolling in.

The Nikkei [sub] says that Nissan’s March sales in China are up 65 percent.

Mazda China reports March sales up 55 percent from a year earlier, its second best monthly sales record in China.

BMW China says their Q1 sales in China doubled in the first quarter of 2010.

Audi China’s March sales are reported up 65 percent

Changan’s March sales are up 66 percent

Pretty much the only one to predict a more sedate growth is the generally not very reliable National Passenger Car Information Exchange Association. Mid March, they predicted, a bit prematurely, a 40 percent rise for March, and they stuck with that prediction yesterday. Guess we’ll have to remain patient until the China Association of Auto Manufacturers (CAAM) announces the official number in a few days.  Why are the March sales so important? It had been widely expected that, following a world record 2009, China’s torrid growth would abate and settle into a still stellar 10 to 20 percent range. So far, it doesn’t look like it.