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The chart is the problem: VW wants to sell a million cars in the US by 2018, and if Audi’s going to account for 200k of that volume, the VW brand has to get its sales headed towards the 800k range. Ostensibly, the pictures are the solution: with the Passat and Tiguan selling like they have herpes, these updates are going to be an important element of how VW gets from where it is to where it wants to be. And though neither of these images are of the highest quality, they point to some serious dullification. Apparently VW’s bid for “mainstream relevance” mean turning its vehicles into snooze-mobiles. But is the Toyota school of styling going to put Vee-Dub over the top?
36 Comments on “What’s Wrong With This Picture: A Million Little Volkswagens Edition...”
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A million? Good luck with that.
VW’s plans for world domination will be thwarted by:
1. Poor quality, year after year. My 02 Passat had repeated electrical problems, poor throttle response (drive-by-wire V6), poor fuel economy, poor resale value, and burned a quart of oil every 1000 miles at the tender age of 3, with only 30k miles on it. It also wouldn’t start once when it was 5 months old. I don’t miss that car.
2. Crazy product names. Hey VW – “Tiguan” sounds like something you need to take medicine for.
3. Boring (but clean) external design. OK, people rave about VW interiors, but look to Hyundai for interesting exteriors.
4. VW arrogance. The Germans are never wrong. Ever. If VW doesn’t hit the 1 million car target, it’s because US customers are too stupid to know a good car when they see one. :)
5. LOUSY dealer service and arrogant service managers.
@zbnutcase:
I have to say that my dealer experience was golden, from sales to service. I just had far too much of it – something like 12 unscheduled visits in 3 years.
I forgot to mention that the car also needed 4 brake rotors within the first month of ownership. At least they covered them under warranty.
This isn’t exactly new. VWs been cycling up and down for decades. It has a little to do with style, and a lot to do with being unable to retain customers. If they do get a sales spike (a la, diesels, or the new beetle, when it was new), most of the new blood gets scared off by indifferent quality and (especially) expensive repairs. Heck even the VW lovers on this board admit that owning one is a sort of masochistic relationship (not “British car” bad, but expensive and attention-hogging). Being boxy makes the first sale hard, but it’s the second-sales that make VW a footnote in the US.
Yeah I agree with some of gslippy’s points. It seems their sales drop occurred right about the time they experienced a drop in quality from the anecdotal evidence I have. My future sister-in-law has a 1997 Jetta sedan with 100s of thousands of miles that still runs well and has very little work done outside of routine maintenance. In fact, the plan is to keep it around until her 12 year old daughter can learn to drive standard on it and have it for her first car.
A family friend however bought a 2003 Golf/Rabbit when it was new and had loads of electrical gremlins (including the infamous coil packs) and unloaded it right after the warranty expired. If Wolfsburg wants world domination they better get the quality in line and please keep the driving experience. (BTW I always hope for ALL manufacturers to get their quality in line cause I like to see them succeed or fail on product not cause the car is just a POS.)
Getting to 800K looks like VW will need to quadruple their sales — and they will have to, almost. But a better way to look at is market share: from 2009’s 2.2% (IIRC) they will need to move up to about 5% of the long-term 16M market. Still more than double today’s market share but not impossible, especially as VW has two key volume models due out in the next 18 months: Jetta (NCS) and Passat (NMS).
But whether they can execute will depend on whether their styling will appeal to a broader audience (google for photos of the NCC concept from earlier this year for an idea of what the new Jetta will look like), whether the *perceived* reliability (more important than real reliability, in the end) is acceptable — and whether VW can improve dealer satisfaction.
Not an easy task, but how many here would have believed that VW will be neck-and-neck for #2 in the world if asked five years ago?
VW? A million units? Snort.
Quality interiors (I’ll give them that), snicky transmissions, and hip ad campaigns won’t offset the fiery, undying hatred cultivated by years of shoddy engine/transmission/electrical/body integrity quality and poor dealer experiences.
I feel genuinely sorry for whoever ended up owning my 2001.5 ‘new’ Passat, which I promptly traded in at only 11k after the transmission surrendered (“You’re lucky this was under warranty – this would have been an $11k job!” said the dealership). This before the sludge problem and electrical gremlins went Thunderdome over resale value.
Yes, they’re fun to drive, yes, the seats are comfy (and plaid! Want!), and the diesel gets great mpg, but I’m not sure what it would take to get me to seriously consider one again.
Exactly, my future SIL after her awesome experience with her Jetta purchased a Tiguan this past fall. I’m watching very carefully to see what the current state of VW quality is.
11K for a trans? Come on!
dadude53:
Yep, that’s what they said, scratching their heads. They showed me the invoice from VW for the new transmission (straight from Germany!) and it was just shy of 8 grand. Yeah.
The tech was tasked. This was the first one that he’d done.
The head of the service department said that 11k number to me and we all blinked.
I said, “…so… that means that in just a few years, the cost to replace a transmission in this car will be more than the car is worth.”
What could he say to that?
Not long after, my dad took his new Jetta (a ’99, I believe) in for an oil change and they forgot to tighten the drain plug. We made it within 500 yards of the house (after a 90 mile drive!) when the plug fell out completely, leaving a trail all the way to the garage which we discovered after parking the car and looking under it to see what that funny noise was and finding a growing puddle of oil.
Pop called the dealership and they were jerks about it. Of course it wasn’t their fault! And it was going to be up to us to have the car hauled up there to check it for damage, replace the plug, and refill the oil. Our dime!
He called the owner, who got to the bottom of this and apologized profusely for the conduct of his service department staff, and came and picked up the vehicle himself and delivered it back. So props to him for that.
But yeah, 11k for a tranny replacement. Wow.
Within the next few months I found out about several other Passat owners in my town who had the same problem and had to shell out over 8 grand for their new transmissions.
That puzzles me. VW usually only sells reconditioned trannies and engines. It lookes like the price level on a recondtioned 4 speed auto 4G for a 01 Passat,or Audi A6 runs around $2000 ex Germany.
dadude53:
This was a 5 speed automatic. It may have been too new (this was the ‘new’ Passat, they called it, 2001.5) for there to have been any used or rebuilts out there. Interestingly, they also told me that VW *didn’t* supply used or remans on transmissions and that a new one was my only option… which was why I had to wait two weeks for the crate to show up there.
I will not vouch for the accuracy of anything I was ever told at that service department, so who knows what the truth was/is.
Their cost on the unit was something like 7600-7800. It was… surreal.
Driving a rental Jetta today. Nice upgrade over the Cobalt I reserved. Kind of fun to drive even in base trim.
To get me to seriously consider buying a Volkswagen, VW needs to start with a long warranty. Also need to improve the styling a little. However, I could imagine owning a diesel Jetta with DSG as a daily driver.
Anybody that even considers buying a VW that has a radiator should have their head examed. Been sayin that since ’73 and after knowing countless people who have owned them over the years, I’m still saying it.
More on the Jetta. I like the packaging efficiency, but the proportions are just wrong. It’s got wasted height which just increases wind resistance and makes the Jetta look dorky parked next to American market cars. Tough, but the Jetta needs to get as close visually to long, low, and wide as it can without losing the nice interior volume for long legged drivers and pasengers. Can’t move into the American market mainstream with cars shaped like an econobox. The trunk on a Jetta is a visual improvement over the Golf, but the front aspect ratio also needs to change to get into high volume sales. Smaller company Honda used to “get” the shape vs. efficiency tradeoff (and the importance of reliability in he US) and was rewarded with high sales volume.
Honestly I find the new VW look far, far better than the bloated chrome quasi-Audi designs they’ve been peddling for the last few years. And the new look wasn’t designed specifically for the US market, it’s VW’s global design theme and is meant to refer back to the Golf and Jetta MkIV among other things.
As to whether they can really sell 800k a year within eight years, well, I doubt it. The new US-specific (and US-built) Passat will help as will the next-gen Jetta (which is supposed to be cheaper than the current car) but I don’t think that’ll be enough by itself. They undoubtedly have other stuff in mind…I’m interested to see what it is. Improved reliability (which they seem to have started on with the new Golf) and a better dealer network would be a good start.
The latest boring designs are not going to help VW make their sales targets. Boring does not hinder Toyota because they have low cost of long term ownership. VW, while offering much of what Toyota is lacking (nice interiors, engaging dynamics), fails horribly in terms of reliability and costly repairs. Laying out four figures on repairs doesn’t make for happy customers, especially when the odometer reads only five digits.
Best of both worlds: Have Toyota build VW’s.
and do it at the NUMMI plant alongside Tesla.
Good idea. And make cars with no brakes.
There are sexy and hot styles coming out of Korea for some reason that have much more chance of hitting their sale numbers.For instance for some reason the new Hyundai and Optima 2011 look sexy/attractive and have great mileage and value that means they’re very high on my shopping list of cars.
This German brand is drinking kool-aide. VW is expensive and repairs bills were no laughing matter on my last x wife’s Jetta. I’d only consider them if the cars were better priced. A passat sedan is just expensive. So much for the people’s car.
BTW.VW stopped making the Peoples Car in 2003.
I can’t say whether it’s absolutely true that VWs are maintenance queens, but that sure is their reputation. It seems to me that they need a Hyundai style 10 year warranty AT LEAST just to get people into them.
A big part of the problem with VW is that they are perceived as the “Apple” of cars – hip, cute, and expensive. They certainly aren’t seen as being notably efficient either, with the exception of the TDI which is seen as more hassle than it’s worth (not every gas station carries diesel, it has to be a certain grade of diesel, etc). The “hip, cute” part is great, the rest of that image – expensive, inefficient, a hassle – is absolutely terrible. They need to address these three issues before they can ever, ever hope to compete.
So far VW has not actively addressed any of these concerns in their marketing. I looked up their recent ads, all I could come up with was a super bowl commercial that promoted how common VWs are by showing people punching other people every time they see a VW – except if you punched people every time a Toyota or Honda went by it wouldn’t be cute, it would be assault. They fail.
I wonder what VW’s customer retention rate is and how it compares to Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai. It seems to me that if you want to grow your numbers, you HAVE to get repeat buyers, and you need those people telling their family and friends how much they love their VW.
I agree that WV needs to match Hyundai on powertrain warranties if they want to get serious. It’s easy enough for an owner of a buggy S-class or 7 to just get a new one after two years. A Jetta or Passat buyer on the other hand who expects 5+ years of reliable service and ends up with a piece of garbage will not be back. Ever.
I suspect their retention and repeat buyer stats are terrible.
Around the time of the sales swell on that chart, new VW’s were everywhere – and my town doesn’t have a dealer – they’re 90+ miles away.
Then, 3-4 years later, the cars vanished from the road – particularly Beetles.
You almost never see any from that sales hump – and you seldom see a new VW, either.
I think that people bought that hip ad campaign, bought a car, and ditched it within a few years once it started falling apart and never, ever went back.
What does VW stand for? Why do people buy a VW over a Hyundai, Honda, or Toyota? To get a 5 cylinder engine? To have fuel economy that is subpar? Reliability that is subpar?
The only thing compelling about VW’s (and I’m talking the bread and butter Golfs and Jettas) is the interior quality. And perhaps the German “mystique.”
If the Euro keeps falling through the floor relative to the $ the way it is going right now — and were to stay there for several years — VW might have a chance at competing more on price in North America. Golf VI is also a visual improvement (relatively speaking) to Golf V, but their overall design language was much better 10 years ago, IMHO.
VW has no chance in hell of hitting 800k sales per year in the U.S… and this is from someone who just bought a 2010 Golf.
It’s a long story, but my wife really wanted the car and I enjoyed driving it (smooth, quiet, and the Golf VI has terrific seats even in the base 3-door). Even then, I had to go against my better judgement given the bad news I see about their quality. So far we haven’t experienced any issues but the car only has 2k miles on it. The fuel economy from the 5-cylinder is mediocre at best, though it is a smooth and torquey engine.
The Koreans are gaining share rapidly with a lot of features for a lot less money. Even more telling is that I had no qualms about considering a Hyundai based on quality concerns but felt like I was taking a big chance on the VW.
@stevelovescars, as I said in another post above, it’s the perceived reliability that will be the biggest challenge for VW. On these forums, as well as others, there are many who complain about VW reliability, but actual surveys are showing improvements: TrueDelta shows most recent Golf/Jetta models as average reliability, while the CC is worse than average and the Tiguan is better than average.
(As an aside: while TrueDelta is by no means perfect, it’s far better than anecdotal data, and in my opinion is one of the best survey-based data sources, certainly better than JD Power, for example.)
In any case, you and your wife liked the product well enough to buy it, in spite of your reliability expectations. If VW can further improve the product fit (next-gen Passat and Jetta) and improve the perception of reliability at the same time, substantial market share increase should be possible for them.
Of course, the word “if” is critical there; check back on this site in 2015 to see what actually transpired!
I’ve had old VW’s back in the day, and they took a lot more maintenance than my old Toyotas of the same vintage. In 2004, I figured, surely they must have got their quality all figured out in the intervening 15 years? Um, no. When I took delivery, the LR taillight was full of water. The drive shaft of all things failed (would have been >$1000 if I had to pay for that), both cats, Interior trim broke, 1/2 dozen visits for a dangerous transmission computer malfunction (it starts off, then nothing for up to 10 seconds), airbag faults (have that one now), AWD solenoid failures (got that repeatedly), TPMS failures and it just keeps going….. Despite all that, we still like it, but if they got their quality down they would sell a lot more. Its a whole lot cheaper keeping a customer than getting new ones, but VW doesn’t get that for some reason, and too many first time buyers of VW are last time buyers due to the quality and HORRIBLE dealer service (Oddly, my Audi has been great).
I think VW USA is doing quite fine for what they are.
They manage to squeeze premium pricing out of their customers, they have a young and hip image, and they are getting as far as they possibly can with the “rest of the world” cars they are selling here. They dominate the rest of the world with their smaller cars that are great for places where gas is expensive and cars are taxed by displacement or weight. Their reliability issues are also due to their rest of the world focus: in the US labor costs are high and mechanics are bad and expensive, compared to the rest of the world.
VW’s “we’ll build a Camry” strategy leaves me skeptical. They will alienate their current customer base and will have to move into a cutthroat low profit segment? That just doesn’t sound like a winning strategy for VW. My strategy would be to try fine-tune their models for the US market, and be ready to strike big when $6 gas hits the US.
IF they could deliver enough TDI models to compete with the Prius, they would have it made, but that aint gonna happen. That is the only compelling advantage they have in this market.
In the 1960’s heyday, when they ruled the small car world, it was the dealer network that overcame the disadvantages of the car over a Falcon or Valiant. There were dealers everywhere and service was good, friendly and relatively cheap.
The only reason I drive a VW is because of the TDI. Besides the diesel engine, there’s no great reason to buy a VW. There are many manufacturers to choose from that make more efficient and reliable gasoline powered vehicles. TDI powered cars are responsible for a lot of VW’s recent sales. However, the people that just bought them for the impressive fuel economy will probably be going back to Honda/Toyota in a few years if the dealer network doesn’t improve in general.
As I tell people – if you plan to buy a VW, you or someone you know better either have mechanical ability to work on it, or else have deep pockets if you plan to have your dealer do all the work.
And VW definitely sells remanufactured transmissions. Reman parts always have X at the end of the part #.
BTW, if anyone owns a 4 speed automatic Golf/Jetta/Beetle, it’ll cost around $4000 to $5000 to replace the transmission when it goes TU. My wife’s 2000 Jetta had the transmission replaced at about 70000 miles and the car recently turned over to 150000 miles. Luckily the previous owner dealt with the transmission replacement. Supposedly the reman units last a lot longer than the originals. But they kind of should if you’re paying $4000 to $11000 for a transmission. I told my wife that if the transmission in her car fails again, then we’re just going to replace her car and sell it for parts.
My ex bought a used Beetle TDI (2001, I think) from a neighbor down the street. It had around 130k, and was a stick. I would have forbade her from buying an automatic.
I had great, great reservations about her buying this car, and warned her accordingly based on my ownership experience and the wealth of information out there.
However, in this case, it was a gamble she was willing to take, for one reason:
The previous owners had kept record of all service done to the vehicle back to day one. Every invoice, every repair, all of it.
And you should have seen the stack of papers. It was almost 3/4″ thick.
Most of the car was rebuilt (including an entire wiring harness – imagine what that took!) under warranty while the first owner had it. Or, rather, from the number of repairs, *didn’t* have it while it sat in the shop. It was incredible. Transmission repairs, clutch, fuel injectors, wiring harnesses, switches, struts, front end, the list went on and on.
The guy we bought it from was the second owner and he’s put something like 80-90k on it with only regular maintenance. So we figured, considering how much had been replaced, it was a safer bet than one that was either new or hadn’t had that amount of work.
She hasn’t had a problem yet in two years.
But still.
I am one of those lost customers. My first new car was an 85 GTI. 2 yr unlimited mile warranty. I sold the car right after the 2 years were up. Multiple fuel injection/engine management issues, and a nagging rain leak somewhere in the body. I loved the car, but it was too high maintenance (and I had been a Mopar guy). I have never been tempted by a VW since.
My sister, on the other hand, has been a diesel girl and has owned a string of diesel VWs since an 80 Rabbit. (I think it has been 6 of them). I don’t think her loyalty is so much a testament to VW, as it is the lack of any other diesel cars out there over the last 25 yrs.