Scion brand manager Jack Hollis tells the WSJ [sub] that
The sales are nowhere where they should be and they will never be this low again
And with only 29,672 units sold through 2010, he ain’t kidding either (well, except for maybe the last part). Meanwhile, with the Yen headed up, profits on Scion’s small, Japanese-built offerings aren’t in great shape either. In short, it is with good reason that Scion is the subject of the most-recent TTAC Deathwatch. Meanwhile, Scion’s bid for renewed relevance hangs on the success of two cars: the neo-Corolla Coupe tC, and the A-Segment Scion iQ three-seater. TTAC will have an early review of the tC before the end of the week, but before we get into the specifics of that vehicle, let’s ponder the wider question of Scion’s viability. Will these two cars bring back Scion’s sales to their previous levels? Let’s take a look at Scion’s historical sales for answers…
As the graph above proves, a popular tC model alone is theoretically capable of doubling Scion’s 2010 sales levels… as long as it’s as popular as its predecessor. On the other hand, Scion now has a lot more competition than it once did, from models like the Honda CR-Z, Nissan’s Cube and Kia’s Soul. And, as the latest iteration of the xB shows, if Scion doesn’t get its new models right, it sees little to no sales bump. Meanwhile, the iQ has little precedent in the US market, outside of the highly disappointing Smart experiment.
In short, the tC might be able to keep the brand above water before a spiritual successor to the Mk.1 xB arrives in the form of a Scionized Verso S. Even then though, a return to 100k+ annual sales for the brand seems unlikely. If gas prices take off, the iQ could make a splash, and Toyota’s small car brand experiment could be back in business, but it’s hard to recommend that Toyota spend any more money keeping its “youth brand” alive. If these cars have a shot at sales success, they’re just as likely to achieve it as Toyotas rather than Scions. Still, we’ve been wrong before… do you reckon these forthcoming Scions can move the needle?
The iQ seemed quite popular during my trip to the Netherlands, Belgium, and France last week. I’d definitely go for it over a Smart.
As much as I think the tC was improved with the update (new gen engine, 6MT, etc), I think that the style is too subdued to really make a splash.
Well, Paul said the orginal Corolla coupe was a rip off of the Mustang, the new “tc” looks like a rip off of the curent Camaro. Looks like a Japanese “baby” Camaro.
You’re kidding, right?
You’re too young to be suffering from cataracts.
edit- now that I’ve stared at it a while (whilst suffering from the power of suggestion) I am starting to see a boxy mini-Camaro in there.
That’s the first thing I thought of as well.
Not seeing it.
Reminds me more of the Nissan GT-R than a Camaro
Yeah, I agree to a point about the Camaro. What about the iQ? All they did was rip off the smart which ripped off the Isetta.
One thought about most new car designs: they keep stretching the headlight lenses farther and farther back and soon may meet the windshield. These already remind me of Phyllis Diller – five too many facelifts over the years!
Hey I didn’t mean it was a stinkin’ clone or mini-me version. I just ment they look like they came from the same family. Kinda like a family I knew in the community I grew up in. Four kids and every one had exactally the same eyes and nose, you couldn’t deny who they belonged to.
Four wheels and tires, a couple of doors and a windshield. I totally see what you mean.
It’s the front engine packaging. Way, way better than Smart. But honestly I do not see a market room for a brilliant reimplementation of a retard idea. If someone is looking for a car-like conveyance this small in America, he ought to either a) move from his cesspool to a livable city with parking or b) suck it up and ride a bus with other hippies and hobos.
Just returned from a tC drive event. The view forward from the driver’s seat is similar to that in the Camaro.
Scion was supposed to be a way to sell JDM Toyotas and Daihatsus that don’t make sense under the Toyota brand but would result in useful sales and, eventually, sales of mainstream Toyotas down the road.
The problem, from what I can tell, is that someone at Toyota thought that, with the RAV/4 growing substantially and the exit surveys on xB showing that it was turned down for refinement issues, they could kill two birds with one stone: slot a small crossover under the RAV. What they didn’t take into account was that people who don’t want the RAV don’t want the xB either; they went CR-V or Matrix, and that xB intenders don’t want the new xB. It’s what happens when you don’t think holistically about who your customers really are and start taking for granted that they’ll never leave the fold.
Honda did something similar with Acura: they killed the RSX, thinking they’d split the difference between the RDX, TSX and Si. What happened is that the difference was split between the GTI, MS3, Mini and WRX. Oops.
Lest you think this a Japanese disease, witness Saab: they turned the 9-3 into a poor 3-Series thinking that they’d a) keep existing Saab buyers and b) net a few 3-Series intenders. What happened was c) no one bought the car; Saab buyers either kept their old rides or went Subaru, and anyone set on a 3-Series got a 3-Series, or possibly a G35.
And then you have Oldsmobile…
Streamlining is all well and good, but you really need to think about where your existing customers will go. They’re not a given; not when you’re talking about fickle-market toys like these.
As always, interesting. How much was the push to sell from JDM cars in the US, and how much was just bad-marketing think?
And don’t “youth” brands have a definite lifespan – things can only be cool twice, right?
Scion is aimed at the market demographic that has had a very difficult time finding jobs since, oh, around 2006-2007.
This time, it isn’t the cars that’s the problem.
Demographics are a healthy part of the problem, but the products and increased competition have contributed.
Scion’s heart stopped when they abandoned the Gen-1 xB design themes in the 08 xB. They don’t offer anything truly unique today. Even the xA was unique in 2004/5.
The story of early innovation, followed by improved copycats, followed by decline of the originator, has been played out many times in several industries.
So no, unless Scion provides an interesting vehicle that is uniquely different in appearance, utility, value, or performance, they will die.
When I was shopping for a new, boxy car to replace my trusty Volvo 245, I looked at the Cube and Soul. I didn’t even shop the current xB.
I wound up buying a 2005 xB instead. It’s no Volvo, but even current Volvos don’t please me. I might look at a Verso-based Scion, if and when it comes out.
Scion should not be compared to the manufacturers listed. A better comparison would be Saturn. Came out of the gate strong, did reasonably well, until upper management lost track of the original idea, and let it falter and die.
Dead brand walking! We have a dead brand walking here!
A stripper Scion tC can stand alone on its own merits. Put just a few options on one and there is a long list of other cars in the $22K to $25K range that stomp it into the ground:
1) Subaru WRX $24K and change
2) VW GTI $23K and change
3) V6 Ford Mustang $22K and change
4) V6 Chevy Camaro $23K and change
5) 3.8L V6 Hyundai Genesis $25K on the button
6) MazdaSpeed3 $22K and change
7) Mini Cooper S $23K and change
With FWD and under 200 HP many of the above cars offer far more power, RWD or AWD, better handling, and better performance. Sure, you could sink $5K into a Scion tC to fix all the problems with it, or get any of the above out of the box and still run circles around the Scion.
Dead – brand – walking
Yeah that is the problem. Currently a stripped model carries a fairly competitive price but try tacking some popular options in it.
Exactly so!
the new xA-class Scion has a chance, because your only alternative is a Stupid, but I don’t see it turning around because the product isn’t right.
I am amazed that the TC sold as well as it did for so long considering that sporty coupes usually have a shelf life of two years before buyers look for the next cool design. Also I concur that the redesign of the xB was a huge mistake.
Yaris was a better implementation of the platform than xD when xB became a Corolla Wagon. The mind-boggling fact: Yaris 3D is offered with a smaller engine than xD (1.5 from Prius vs. 1.8). And in most cases both were sold on the same floor, so the customer could check both in one visit. What were they thinking?!
As an xD owner ,I’ve always thought that by the time you price out the Yaris W/ PW/PL/CC you list @ just short of the xD. And the bigger 1.8 & normally placed gauges were worth that premium.I agree the big issue is @ the Toyota dealer,who would be willing to “make deals” on the Yaris, but is stuck W/ the crappy one price policy on the Scion. (which worked out about as well for Saturn) Add to that , domestically produced Corollas which do not suffer fom the Yen /dollar problem can also be bargined down to xD levels of cost. And both the dealer & manufacturer,both benefit by talking the customer ^ into a Corolla @ xD money.
BTW I bought my xD as an 1 year old CPO car to avoid the whole one price for all issue.Not that that matters in this case.
Sorta off the topic. Smart sales may not fulfilling sales expectations, but I see quite a few of them around eastern MA. Thrift is now “in”. I’m sure people are just not buying cars as often as they did in the past.
I was trying to find a parking spot in East Boston yesterday and there were a lot a spots ether an iQ or a Smart would have fit nicely. I see a lot of Smarts in MA as well and it’s a lot easier to find an on-street parking space for one. If I was living in East Boston or the Back Bay etc. I’d look real close at an iQ. I guess you’d have to go for a 500 in the North End – Boston’s little Italy with notoriously scarce parking!
Give me that Verso already!
I’d say the question is ?
Can any car company with a pay one price policy succeed?
A fixed price policy can only succeed if there are no other similar products. It worked for Saturn as long as Saturn had somewhat unique products. As soon as they were badge engineered, one price was a major problem.
Nope!
Next question
NO, but for nothing to do with the cars. The problem is that the target buyers for these cars no longer exists. Young people will never be able to afford new cars. With unemployment for those under 25 at more than 50 percent, and underemployment very high…it is over for a generation of car buyers.
Yep, the target market here is dead, and quite possibly for a very long time. Most corporations have very strict limits on pay increases for internal promotions, and those tend to be based on percentages of current pay. That means that even those ‘lucky’ few in the ‘Scion generation’ who recently landed jobs will be perpetually underpaid, unless they jump between employers and negotiate hard when they make the leap. This latter approach is something most people don’t have ambition/skills/flexibility to pull off, at least not on a consistent basis.
It is very hard to sell a new car to folks who can barely afford rent and health insurance.
I always thought the very idea of Scion was kind of…off. Initially I remember these cars advertised at incredibly low prices (before sub-16k cars were widely available), but then they pushed all this crap about how you make your Scion “yours” with thousands of dollars worth of options. It was like they were saying, “here’s a budget car for young hip kids, but you’re missing the whole point of buying it if you’re not going to dump another 3 or 4g’s on it before leaving the showroom”. I’m not really sure how this combination of contradictory ideas gained tracton from the start.
Seriously? Underpaid FOREVER?? Folks, the economy is quite cyclical – it’s down now, but it will go back up. Really. I graduated from college into the the early 90’s recession, which was pretty bad too – I was wildly underemployed for a while. But things swung around and I have had a great career the past 15 years.
But back to the topic, I think the whole idea of Scion is stupid, and the brand needs to die. All Toyota needs is Toyota and Lexus.
And I actually had an interesting conversation with my boss (also COO of the company) today. He drives a Lexus RX300, which is now out of warranty. He was expressing his increasing annoyance with the local Lexus dealers prices and arrogant attitude and was looking for alternatives! Lexus taking more lessons from the Germans??
Make the Xb longer and taller so the future homeless have a place to dwell and slash the cos to the bone and market it as a future dwelling place for those riding the ever-downward economy downwards as they keep pace with the economic end of the USA.
I remain convinced the “end” is inevitable for a large portion of the USA population.
Of course, it will be hard for a new smaller vehicle to compete with a used cargo-type van that offers max living space.
Still, desperate times call for desperate measures and Scion may have to become creative to at least make one model successful.
I wonder which manufacturer will be the first to actually include in their marketing that a model can be used as an abode for those who lose their tradition dwelling-type?
Wasn’t the point of Scion to drive down the average age demographic of Toyota buyers? Where is the equivalent of a Civic-R hatch. That’s what they need. Nothing Toyota makes is exciting, except an outrageous supercar. They needs some spice at the lower end, not a Smart clone. I’ve never seen anyone under 50 driving a Smart. Young people have friends to cart around.