Find Reviews by Make:
10-10-10 marks the tenth anniversary of the first Prius sold in the US. A total of 5800 of the pioneering hybrids were sold in that first year. North American sales peaked with 183.8k in 2007, and then drooped, and are pacing to 141k units in 2010.
Note how Japan’s Prius sales have boomed, surpassing NA, as a result of government incentives. What does the future hold for NA Prius sales in the next ten years?
22 Comments on “Prius Celebrates Ten Years In US; B&B: What Will Prius Sales Be In 2020?...”
Read all comments
With the Volt and Leaf coming to market and Ford not too far behind with their electric Focus, the Prius can only go one way…down.
But let’s work on the premise that electric (or PHEV’s) fail and we’re back to conventional combustion engines. Then the Prius will still have problems as the Germans bring their diesels or (possibly) the French bring their hybrid diesels over. However, the Prius can still win US customers over if they play this angle.
Remind customers that you get less diesel out of a barrel of oil than you get petrol. Since petrol maximises a barrel of oil, a petrol hybrid will be a very efficient use of a barrel of oil, in comparison to a diesel engine.
Anyway, to answer your question “where will Prius sales be in 10 years?”:
Haven’t got a clue.
I would disagree. All of the cars listed could have healthy shares then… it just depends upon the price of gas. I could see it going up, but realistically, it will be probably pretty flat or down.
I’ve just spent some time in Chicago and I couldn’t believe how clean the air is. Even the cabs run on petrol , of course. Complete absence of smokey diesels , unlike European cities.
If America is lucky the Prius will remain a big seller for years to come. Do you think anybody else is going to build such a clean , reliable car ? Well Honda could , but they are struggling to compete at present. If Mazda have licenced the Toyota technology then they might. As for French hybrid diesels , they will be very frugal when they are running , and they will be very clean when they are not running.
The fashion crowd (i.e., the ones who buy these things to “make a statement”) will split itself into Volts, Teslas, Leaves, other hybrids such as the Cayenne Hybrid, the Touareg Hybrid, etc.
On the other hand, as younger drivers, who have been indoctrinated raised to believe these cars are somehow “ecological”, reach driving age, the natural market for such fashionable products will increase.
Net/net, you will see an increase in Prius sales, but the thing is unlikely to become a top 10-sales vehicle ever.
In 10 years EVs will be more common. “Zero Emissions” > Low Emissions, so I guess the “ecologic” kids will go EV before going hybrid.
While I haven’t a clue about actual sales numbers, I boldly predict the Prius will still be around in 10 years.
The Volt? Not so much.
I don’t care.
There will be another fad that will replace it: EV, hydrogen, Mr. Fusion, unicorns…
Prius just celebrated its 10,000 sale here in Switzerland.
A Canadian auto journalist recently slammed “eco-weenies” for not buying more than the Prius’ modest sales.
It may be that cars like the Prius are attractive only to a narrow band of consumers. Those who believe there is no climate/oil problem have absolutely no reason to buy such a car. Many of those who beleive there is a climate/oil problem have moved beyond private car ownership to walking, cycling, transit, car coops, ride sharing, travelling less, living near work etc. So Prius etc. sales are limited by being only a “boundary layer” between these groups.
That’s my theory, anyway.
How many of those Prii sold in North America were fleet sales to taxi services, government agencies and corporate fleets? Go to Vancouver B.C. or Seattle and all you see are Prii plying the road as taxis and government vehicles.
Given that Toyota has announced plans to make Prius a sub-brand, you need to break out the sales for the Prius Supreme, Prius Ciera, Prius Calais, etc and then get a grand total.
How long do their Lithium batteries last? How are they disposed, whats the replacement cost? Are they subject to fire in high haed situtions
Prius uses nickel metal hydride batteries, not lithiums. (The plug-in Prius will use lithium batteries.) Currently battery pack replacement is about $2800 +/- at the dealer. It’s not very common, since the Prius system optimizes for battery lifetime. That cost is comparable to a transmission or other major component of an ordinary car.
Actually, the Prius has Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH) batteries rather than lithium. After 10 years of service, experience says they will outlast the automatic transmission on the average FWD vehicle.
They are also cheaper than the average FWD auto transmission:
http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/toyota/TYT2008092372406.aspx?ncid=12067
I think clizbe1 is answering the question of “where will Prius sales be in 10 years?” The Prius going forward will be using lithium batteries, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. A lot of people questioned the Prius’ reliabitlity when it first entered the market. It has since proven to be one of the most reliable vehicles on the road. It would be a safe gamble that it will continue to be.
Maybe 10/10/00 was an “official” date, but for the record, I took delivery of my 2001 Prius on Sept. 21, 2000 at Broadway Toyota in Portland. (Oregon plate LOW CO2) Its build date is 8/1/00. I was one of the early adopters who got first crack at production by signing up on the web. I was prepared to suffer as they worked the bugs out, but in fact it was great, the best car I ever owned.
After 125K miles I traded it last spring for a new 2010 Prius, which is even better in every way. Lots of friends and family are driving Priuses, they all love the car, and they’re not “eco freaks”. Toyota has been wise enough to know that a techno-stunt would be a passing fad. They’ve made the Prius an all-around great car for anyone.
Thanks for a very fine site, Paul.
As they expand the brand, I can assume sales will only go up. Personally I look forward to the wagon version. For better or worse, Toyota has made itself as the ‘go to’ brand for hybrids.
And Prii stopped being a fashion statement 5 or 6 years ago….now just us common folk buy them….
Projecting strong future Prius sales at this stage – now that the oil bubble, the global warming mania, and government inducements are all over – is a bit like Disco Stu’s prediction of future record sales based on 1976 trends. Past performance is definitely not guaranteed.
That is not to say that fuel economy will go out of style… nor should it. But complex hybrid fashion accessories almost certainly will. The near-term future belongs to simplicity, downsizing, and more efficient ICE powertrains.
Prius has been riding the wave of popularity becuase of its brand recognition. Will that last? who’s to say? Hybrids and the eventual successor electric vehicles are here to stay. They may be overly complex compared to other drivetrains, but that’s comparing a new technology to a mature technology, and that’s unfair. Anyone who’s seen how VW’s clean diesel engine systems work would probably agree than a hybrid is probably already simpler in construction and operation.
people need to keep persepective; there was a time when fuel injection was impractical. there was a time when turbocharging was impractical. And let’s not forget the wildly impractical Me262 jet fighter from WWII. It broke down all the time and wasted fuel. good thing those jet engines never caught on, eh?
You make a good point about fuel injection and turbochargers being examples of new technology which needed time to catch on. One might add GDI engines and CVT transmissions to this list. But where is the new technology in bolting an electric motor to an unremarkable gasoline engine? This is Frankenscience at best.
I speculate that the Prius’ greatest contribution to the automotive world will be its role as test mule for regenerative braking and battery technologies. But the hybridnesss – the combining of two engines in one car – is a technological dead-end IMO.
You make a good point about fuel injection and turbochargers being examples of new technology which needed time to catch on. One might add GDI engines and CVT transmissions to this list. But where is the new technology in bolting an electric motor to an unremarkable gasoline engine? This is Frankenscience at best.
I speculate that the Prius’ greatest contribution to the automotive world will be its role as test mule for regenerative braking and battery technologies. But the “hybridness” – the combining of two engines in one car – is counterintuitive to the concept of technological progress.
Agreed, Sundowner. Don, it’s actually quite a remarkable engine – Atkinson cycle, which is more efficient but lacks low end torque. Since electric motors have low end torque in abundance, the two compliment nicely. ‘Hybrid Synergy Drive’ is an apt term for it. The devil is in the details – Toyota said at introduction the hardest part was the software. Hardly a bolt-together job, it’s taken a huge amount of hard engineering, and it works.
We’ll see various mixes of combustion and battery systems as the transition to full-electric unfolds over the next 25 years. Prius will be a major player. Near-term I see the two-car household with a plug-in hybrid for trips and larger loads and a full electric logging local commute miles. (I wish someone would do a light affordable pure-electric sports car for my commute, say an eMiata. The Leaf is so big and heavy (and weird-looking). I’ll have to convert one myself I guess.)
It’s a fascinating time for car technology, best in a lifetime.
PS: I’m no hypermiler, I’m a lifelong car guy and I like to drive fast. The 2010 Prius gets me 46-48 real mileage daily, better on the highway. About 10% better than the smaller and slower 2001 model.