When gas peaked in 2008, and carmageddon ensued thereafter, many predicted the end of the world, and if that won’t come to pass, the total extinction of the pickup and SUV genre. Along with that, the demise of the U.S. auto industry was prognosticated, because it supposedly was more dependent on trucks than Robert Downey Jr, on uppers and downers. Conventional wisdom had it that we’d be driving bicycles, midgetmobiles, solar powered EVs, or use public transportation. Pickups? Only at Match.com.
Well guess what, as with all the crises before, it didn’t happen. Actually, the dinosaurs reign supreme.
J.D. Power just counted that pickups, SUVs, and minivans made up 54 percent of all U.S. vehicle sales in October, while, duh, “cars made up 46 percent of the market.” That’s the biggest dosage of trucks since December 2005, when trucks orgasmed at 56 percent of sales.
And, is anybody complaining? Do people warn that it’s unsustainable if we keep on truckin’? Nah. It’s seen as a sign of recovery. According to AP, “strong truck sales make economists giddy because it means people are willing to spend money again. Small business owners feel comfortable enough to buy a new pickup truck or delivery van for their company; and regular folks are confident enough in their jobs and finances to take on beefy SUV payments.”
People save less (good!) and spend more (good!). Gasoline? Well, it costs about double than the buck fifty during the last truck craze, but don’t let statistics ruin a good thing. And honestly, while here in China, the only thing I miss is the new black Ford Expedition Eddie Bauer the good folks of Otis Ford in Quogue, NY, put in my driveway every second April without even asking. But come to think of it, the Chinese never swore off the SUV craze. And I’m not crazy enough to use it in Beijing traffic.
Ford ran a big truck promotion in October, just like they do every October. Sold lots of F-Series. That’s probably most of the story right there.
I don’t doubt these numbers, but living in the greater Seattle area, I have noticed a substantial shift from the full-size SUV-crazed, dot-com days 10-12 years ago and now, when I see a much higher number of cars, and the SUVs now on the road tend to be the jelly-bean car-based ones rather than the Explorers/Suburbans of old. I’m guessing that this has to do with the higher fuel prices we have seen in the last few years. I also think that Cash for Clunkers took a huge number of the 90s Explorers and other similar vehicles off the road (permanently).
Nothing against trucks and SUVs (I have one, an older work truck used only when NEEDED, it gets 9mpg), but I’m glad that at least some people here in suburbia seem to have shifted back to more sensible vehicles (extended-cab 1 ton dually 4×4 NOT really needed to haul around a laptop and a latte, I’ve seen that way too many times with not a speck of dirt in the bed).
If I lived in a rural area with a high annual snowfall, my family vehicle would be a quad-cab 4×4 pickup. Our front-wheel drive minivan with traction control is pretty good in the winter, but anything over 7-8″ of snow on the ground and it’s plowing pretty hard!
If you have a family, you invariably want the biggest car you can afford. This is news?
I wonder why my parents (when I was a kid) settled for Volvo and Mercedes sedans when they could have driven Suburbans, if that’s the case.
Nah. There must be more factors than size alone.
Great video.
Besides the return of the trucks, there is an abundance of smaller cars, however.
TTAC is that in the US, we’ll pay anything for a gallon of gas. So any dip in truck sales due to a fuel price spike is only temporary.
The market is a bifurcated one.
Commercial and personal customers. Even when the personal user feels constrained and delays a new car purchase, commercial users can only wait so long before their vehicles need to be replaced due to wear.
In addition (IDK what portion of the commercial fleet is made-up of leased vehicles, and this would bear investigating), but there could be any number of pre-crisis leased vehicles coming off-lease now, and due to the circumstances of the user may not be replaced with a like type of vehicle. Commercial use (trucks) have to be replaced with new commerical vehicles. Personal-use vehicles (truck or cars) coming off lease, however, could be replaced with a used car. (If this is true, higher used car transaction prices and off lease residual values for cars would tend to support this claim.)
As far as a shift in tastes from trucks to cars, this is only really practical in the personal-use segment because it is awfully difficult to carry a 4×8 sheet, or a yard of gravel in the back of a hatchback.
Truck sales may have bounced off the bottom, but they will never return to the good old days. Gas is still almost $3, and that’s a $100+ fill up on a full sized truck – to much for a personal use daily driver. I see this as business replacing worn out vehicles, not regular consumers returning to trucks.
Thank God, and I was afraid the globe would once again be cold and have predictable weather. :)
Btw;
Gas in Norway is 2$ pr liter, or around 8 bucks pr gallon. Luckily we have insane tax on engines so the average car does more than 30 mpg (suffice to say ,diesels are popular over here) , but still, I can hardly see what you are complaining about.
Wow, norwegian government has it good! Income on the extraction-side, income on the distribution side, and income on the export side (natural gas, oil crude, sands, refined products and the variety of Statol-owned petrol stations.)
Zykotec, does the government tax propane and heating oil at the same rates as gasoline and diesel? I would think that there would be a huge incentive to use some fuel with lower taxes. In rural areas of the US some red dye off-road diesel finds its way into on-road pickup trucks, but the tax savings don’t justify the effort unless you’re already buying it for your tractor.
Percentage of “trucks” sold depends on what qualifies as a truck. I don’t see as many new body-on-frame SUVs as before. They seem to be replaced by car based crossovers.
Well, the Norwegian government loves their taxes, and there’s a tax on everything, especially if it’s considered luxury or dangerous (alcohol and tobacco) :) .On the other hand, we are one of the best countries in the world to live in (according to the UN), if you count the money spent on each individual. And clothes, housing and food are reasonably cheap, compared to a normal income. (An average income is around 50k a year, not sure how that compares to the US ) I don’t really understand how the US system works for qualifying a car as a truck, I think I read somewhere that even the PTCruiser classified as a truck?
I don’t see it changing all that much for the forseeable future. The trucks are there for a reason. The total volume is down so you won’t see the traditional soccer mom driving as many, but the commercial market hasn’t changed their needs one iota.
The last crisis has really focussed the makers. A p/u has never been better. Ford’s s/crew is one hell of a good vehicle, period. GM’s SUV’s dominate the market for a reason. Chrysler’s offerings are … ok, two out of three ain’t bad.
The inflation-adjusted price of gasoline has been falling over the past 80 years, punctuated by isolated price spikes every few decades:
http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Gasoline_inflation_chart.htm
Of course, the peak-oil-global-warming-China-booming crowd will insist that this time things are different. And they might be right. But all we really know for sure is that dinosaurs last a lot longer than the average fad.
Its perfectly understandable to me that someone likes to ride in a big, comfy, dinosaur. What is of concern to me are the repercussions of such luxuries, not the luxuries themselves. Yet, still again and again I see many folks damning the luxuries as evil, shameful, and harmful, like sex. That being said, I feel I’d enjoy some time behind the wheel of a Cayenne.
Since U.S. CAFE rules drive automakers to make most every vehicle with a rear hatch meet the definition of a truck, this is not a very informative statistic.
It doesn’t distinguish between a Suburban or F-150 and a Subaru Forester or minivan, calling them all “trucks”.
Don’t forget taxes for small business owners. Our tax code provides a 10-12 k per year deduction if you buy a truck with over 6000 lbs GVWR, but only 3k per year if you buy a car. Leases are mostly deductable.
So the choices are, lease and toss away money, or buy, but if you do get a big truck (Escalade, Range Rover, etc) so you can write it off.
The car makers are also in on the game. A base truck is often slightly under the 6k GVWR but the optioned up model is not (current Volvo 90, Honda Pilot). You can’t buy the inexpensive truck, the car makers know this and in effect force you to buy the expensive version if the tax deduction is at issue. Credit to the past generation SRX, coming in at 6008 lbs in all versions.
Overall, as someone who has four full sized folks and friends to cart around, I’d like a classic Wagon, but the tax code for small business makes it WAY worth it, even accounting for 15 mpg, to buy the truck.
It costs me more to drive a Prius than an F150, Armada, Escalade, etc. That is whacked, but the whole write off scenario is clearly to benefit automakers and gas companies.
This is why your accountant, attorney and realtor drives a big vehicle, and why your contractor has a truck that never sees dirt for his family.
On the flip side, I’ve seen a LOT of folks buying tiny cars for short trips who don’t have this issue. My parking lot is full of newer “station cars”.
Meaningless because what they are calling SUVs has changed.
In 2005 GM sold half a million GMT800 based SUVs. Ford moved 430,000 Explorers and Expeditions including rebadges.
Through October this year, GM has sold 175,000 real SUVs. But 250,000 small crossovers and 180,000 Lambda minivans. Ford has sold just 85,000 real SUVs. And 335,000 crossovers.
America and oil is like Crackhead and crack. And the Middle East gets the last laugh.
The current truck-sales picture is an entirely different animal than the SUV craze of the 90’s. Those were largely vanity trucks and soccer-mom mobiles. In this economy people are buying only as much vehicle as they need. Which means small efficient commuter-cars for the cubicle crowd, and pickups for the rest of us. I live in a rural area, and most people I know require the use of a pickup in their work. In an urban setting that Prius or Camcord will get you to work just fine, and handle the family duties. That’s why you still see strong sales in both those areas.