What is the difference between the November U.S. car market and my wife? The answer is: None. Edmunds says the U.S. annual sales rate for new vehicles in November will be essentially flat from the prior month.
This reiterates equally flat predictions Wardsauto and J.D.Power had made a few days ago. Edmunds analyst Jessica Calwell paints a pretty face on the prediction: “We’re seeing some stability and consistency in the marketplace for the first time since the economic downturn. The auto makers have realized that they can achieve profitability at this level of sales, and they seem to be settling into that reality.”
Edmunds sees November SAAR to stay at 12.2 million, just like October. Compared to the horrendous November of 2009, sales are expected to be up 17 percent, so there will be something to celebrate.
Edmunds already has forecasts for the largest automakers. As per their crystal ball, it will look as follows:
| Change from November 2009 | Change from October 2010 | |
| Chrysler | 22.4% | -15.4% |
| Ford | 25.6% | -2.0% |
| GM | 11.5% | -8.5% |
| Honda | 16.2% | -13.3% |
| Nissan | 10.0% | -12.4% |
| Toyota | -1.8% | -9.8% |
| Industry total | 17.0% | -8.1% |
(Unadjusted for selling days)
Two other closely followed metrics will be up. Average auto incentives in the U.S. are expected to be $2,490 per vehicle sold in November, up 2.1 percent from the prior month, but down 8.6 percent from the desperate month of the prior year. Buy (North) American proponents will be pleased to hear that the combined U.S. monthly market share for Chrysler, Ford and GM is expected to be 45.5 percent in November, up from 44.8 percent a year ago and up from 45.2 percent in October. If you look at it this way, the market appears much better proportioned.
But with one month to go, it’s time to settle into the reality of an 11.5m car market. Compared to the 10.4 million units in 2009, we’ll call that an A-cup.
What does a negative “Change from November 2010” mean?
Ooops. Corrected. Thank you!
Uncorrected for selling days? In November, I would think there would be significantly fewer than normal due to a slew of holidays and near holidays… My guess is that that -8% composite value looks much more like zero, or as (near to what) Bertel said (as Google translate seems capable of coming after mult attempts), “のすらりとした女性の胸のフラット.”
Your wife likes to go fishing, eh? Or maybe she’s from Hainan Island: Wan quan he shui, qing you qing? Hard to tell what you mean, Bertel. But if it’s what I think, I’ve got one too. It’s an Oriental thing.
Wo wan quan mei you. Nah, she’s from that bigger island that used to be the world’s second largest economy …
California? ;O)
This is the new normal. The industry won’t be getting anywhere near the credit bubble 16-17m per year rate any time soon. Bad economy, high costs of ownership, high initial purchase costs are all driving people out of cars. The US auto fleet will probably keep shrinking over the next decade as people give up cars.
Give the current high prices for used cars, I suspect there’s room for the U.S. market to grow by a million or two within a couple of years.
The incoming stream of high-mileage compacts and subcompacts also has the potential to capture the interest of young drivers.
You are a brave man, Bertel. My wife is also Japanese, but I would never have the courage to remark about the size of her chest. Ever. No matter where or how private.
I’ve asked her. She said: “Sure, go ahead.”
Bertel and his wife have a very honest relationship, no BS (other than Bertel Schmitt) allowed. You’ll find that often in a truly successful relationship and an undercurrent of kinkiness. Which often happens when a man is a little older when he find the love of his life. (Yes I speak from experience. Although my lady is 1/8 Japanese, 1/4 Navajo, and 5/8 Mexican/Spanish mix – Asian looks with Latina attitude. :P And yes I can honestly tell her that.)
Flat is great, but not so much for car sales.