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As noted by Ed Niedermeyer, “it’s that time of year: the media dead zone between Christmas and the New Year, when traditional “news” and “content” gets laid aside in favor of lists of things that happened last year and might happen next year.”
So instead of making more predictions, let’s look for the absolutely worst, most awful, epic fail prediction of the year (please with source). Here is my current favorite:
“China is now the world’s largest passenger-car market. By 2105, J.D. Power expects passenger car sales to hit 13.5 million in China.”
Brought to you by The Globe and Mail, all the way from Toronto.
19 Comments on “Ask The Best And Brightest: The Worst Prediction Of The Year?...”
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PER DAY!!!!? O_o
Pike research white paper predictions for 2010: • The plug-in hybrids of 2020 may not resemble the plug-ins of 2010.
Who knew the Globe and Mail was so conservative?
A tightrope walker, or perhaps the lantern wielding madman who has come to soon? Definitely not the overman, but perhaps a herd following, will-to-power prophet operating on the eternally recurring principle that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger…. (sorry, but I couldn’t resist).
“Former CEO of Shell oil , John Hofmeister says gasoline prices in America could reach $5.00 gallon by 2012.”
What makes this the worst is the fact that it is probably accurate.
Stuff like this scares the hell out of me, but don’t panic yet — similar predictions from various pundits over the past 10 years have been wrong so far.
The most recent chicken little is the ass who recently was head of Shell but now heads up a “not for profit” think tank screaming that oil might soon be above 100 dollars a barrel. (it’s 90 now, so wow, what a prediction)
He then goes on to say that it will be 5.00 a gallon, unless another unforseen event causes it to go up more, such as major war or terroris.
DUH!
One of his funniest predictions was to watch for when the price of a gallon follows the increase of price per barrel. When they start moving together…that’s a sure sign.
Oh, really!!!!!!!
Welcome to the oil roller coaster ride….demand goes up, prices follow and production soon follows.
Prices go down, production slows.
Demand goes up, production is behind and prices go up.
Production picks up….on and on and on and on….
Get over it chicken little!
Oil speculation will have an even greater effect on prices in the near term than supply and demand. I expect to see another speculative bubble in 2011 very much like the one that we saw in 2008. A couple of traders will bet on futures, several more will try to get onboard, and then all kinds of speculators will start to inflate the bubble. There’s a lot of capital out there looking for a fast, juicy return, and petroleum products are quick way to get them. Out of our pockets, of course.
There’s a lot of capital out there looking for a fast, juicy return, and petroleum products are quick way to get them.
What pisses me off is that during the last oil bubble, my Royal Dutch Petroleum (Shell) stock did not reflect the going prices. My stock stayed fairly flat throughout the bubble rather than move in lock-step with the price at the pump. I’m not the smartest guy in the world, but it seems to me…
Wall Street has big expectations for GM.
http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2010/12/gm-stock-surges-as-analysts-give-maker-a-thumbs-up/#more-34320
To keep the silly feud angle going (what, it’s my fault we’re in a media dead zone?) I’ll nominate Jalop’s Justin Hyde for boldly predicting that in 2011 “America Will Decide Cars From Detroit Don’t Suck.”
His evidence: Motown’s “reasonable” comeback on sales and the JD Power IQS survey. The problem: take out fleet sales and trucks/SUVs and you’ll see that American consumers are still a long ways from falling in love with Detroit’s cars. Also, that “comeback” is from the depths of irrelevance. Plus, IQS is a joke and the competition isn’t standing still.
Still, I might have even given Hyde the benefit of the doubt if he’d picked the 2012 Focus as his example of the kind of car that will win consumer affection for Detroit… instead he picked the 2011 Charger, a nameplate that will be lucky to crack 100k units. Oh yes, and much as enthusiasts might like the new Charger, it brings nothing new to the table that might change overall perceptions about Detroit. I can see Detroit having a mediocre-to-decent 2011, but the idea that consumers will suddenly start swooning over American cars is pretty far-fetched. Especially when there’s a bailout bill still unpaid…
Justin’s job is to be a cheerleader. The only question is how analytically creative can he be in waving those pompoms.
All it should take is one massive recall for the bubble to once again burst utterly on GM. Volt battery fires? GMT900 rust issues? Daewoo Cruzes losing their rear wheels? So many choices… the fun is in the anticipation.
Before Chrysler needs to worry about its sales plummeting, first its sales need to crawl out of the gutter. And no, fleets don’t count… even if renters express amazement in all those soft-plastic dashboards.
Ford should still be fine, particularly as it’s the only domestic-branded automaker with a consistent emphasis on fuel efficiency AND performance across its lineup.
another decent choise would have been the Fusion.
My three nominees:
1. “We will sell 60.000 cars this year.” – Jan Åke Jonsson, CEO, Saab Automobile, spring 2010
2. “We will sell 45.000 cars this year.” – Jan Åke Jonsson, CEO, Saab Automobile, August 2010
3. “Volume is not our primary goal.” – Jan Åke Jonsson, CEO, Saab Automobile, December 2010
“The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others.” Thus spake Carathustra
Jack Baruth’s penis falls off. Just kidding. :-) We love ya and your writing man!
“Toyota is a large car company with a high level of sales, ergo they will falter and fail just like GM.”
Except that they are based in Japan, have different management methodologies, different cultural perspective, way higher brand equity, non-UAW anchors.
Most of all, they have a vastly higher market capitalization in the real world.
But other than that, Toyota is just like (old) GM. Even though Toyota beat old GM until old GM went into a govt diapered bankruptcy.
(2009) General Motors claims the Chevrolet Volt range-extended electric vehicle will get at least 230 mpg in the city when it hits the road late next year (2010).
(2010) Popular Mechanics calculates a 33 mile average EV mode range, and between 32 and 36 MPG in CS mode.
C&D claims between 26 and “the upper 30s” for EV range in miles, and 35 MPG for CS mode.