It’s that time of year: the media dead zone between Christmas and the New Year, when traditional “news” and “content” gets laid aside in favor of lists of things that happened last year and might happen next year. We’re not great list-makers here at TTAC, and we’re still waiting on December sales data to sum up last year’s industry performances, so rather than offer our “top ten moments” and “trends to watch,” we’ll simply ask you, our Best And Brightest, to whip out your crystal balls (in a safe-for-work manner, please) and make a wild prediction about next year. Will gas prices spike or recede? Will trucks outsell cars again? Will GM’s stock hit the $53/share price needed to pay back taxpayers, or will more tax money be funneled to the automakers? Will the Chinese market collapse or carry on? Will Chrysler’s rushed updates like the 200 sell significantly better than last year’s equivalent models? Will the return of Fiat to the US market be cheered or ignored? Can we expect another big recall scandal next year, and if so, from whom? Will the Motor Vehicle Safety Act be exhumed and passed, or will it rest in peace? So many questions… time to start predicting!
I’m going to predict that a revitalized Chrysler/North American Fiat is going to come back stronger than GM does in sheer percentages of growth and profitability. (Again in the North American market. I’m not making any GM predictions with GM China involved. Chinese Buicks might be the only thing left of GM in a decade.)
This put me in mind of the differences between my late Saab9000 and also late Alfa 164S. Both had the same chassis, but the differences were night and day. Even though Alfistis might claim the FWD 164 wasn’t a true Alfa, it had that wonderful to look at and listen to 3L V6. It also has a shifter that felt connected and precise – not at all rubbery. And of course it handled more precisely. I would look forward to Chryco cars that optionally offered some Italian suspension tuning and remapped ECUs – neither expensive to do. A jolt of enthusiasm couldn’t hurt Chrysler.
The only prediction I have is that this time – in 2011 – high gas prices will be permanent and $150-200 fill ups for the largest SUVs will at last force some new tech into these generally primitive vehicles. They’re cheap for a reason – much that is complex and expensive in them is amortized. And maybe we’ll get some lighter half ton pickup trucks that aren’t jacked up like a monster truck straight from the factory. I’m on vacation in SW Florida and I can’t believe the number of giant dust- and mud-free trucks with off road or mudder tires. I’ve only seen one superduty that even began to look like a work truck. This may be the year that you need to be rich to drive a big SUV.
Roads? Where we’re going we don’t need roads.
OK, 2015, not 2011…
Google make a $8 billion offer for TTAC as the first step in its strategy for world domination of the automotive industry.
W.A.G. in no particular order…
Chrysler will continue to recede from American releveancy and thusly re-brand “Ram” as Dodge again.
GM Stock price will never go above $45. It will likely hit a low of $9.
Hyundai will over-take America in 2011 but will suffer the inevitable recall syndrome. 2012 will be less kind.
Minivans will become chic again
CURBSIDE CLASSIC will be it’s best yet in 2011
The Seahawks will draft a quarterback.
Pot will become legal an all states but Texas.
Lamborghini will introduce an entry-level model.
The Ford Transit Connect will be cancelled.
Honda will right it’s listing ship and downsize the Accord on it’s next re-fresh.
I’m sure I have more but I’m gonna get back to work.
I don’t think the Transit will be cancelled, I’d have to find the sales numbers along with the development cost, but between use in Europe and North America I’m sure it does alright. Even Canada Post bought up some Transits.
Leaves and Volts will sell like hotcakes. Supply won’t keep up with demand.
Just kidding!!!
Can’t speak to the Volt, but I’m pretty sure the Leaf is already sold out for 2011.
In 2011, I’m probably going to end up buying a Panther platform car and a 2nd-gen F-body.
In 2011:
my driving soul and my right foot is going to say $#@! gas is more than 4 bucks!!! Booooo!!!
my stock portfolio is going to say $#@! gas is more than 4 bucks!!! Hell Yeah!!!
and then the world ends right after midnight Decemer 31st 2011.
Agreed with Educator Dan on Fiat/Chrysler’s powerful comeback.
Corruption at GM’s management levels will be discovered, leading to Obama doing some maneuvers and public opinion of the bailout plan to sink lower. GM’s Chevy Sonic fails to ignite the subcompact segment when it’s released later in the year.
However, FIAT will revitalize Chrysler, and Marchionne will be hailed by auto journalists as the next Carlos Ghosn. Chrysler announces the coming of the Fiat Panda Cross as the Jeep Rescue, leading Jeep enthusiasts to yet again bash Chrysler for ruining the Jeep nameplate. Jeep yet again announces that no Jeep truck, whether called the Nukizer or Gladiator, will be developed anytime soon.
Nissan Juke continues to sell in spite of its face. Fiesta begins to grab some sales from Toyota, Honda and Nissan, but the nameplate still doesn’t have the ability to erase people’s ideas about American-built subcompacts. Unfortunately for Dearborn, it will take many more years for Ford to finally grab a strong share of the market.
Ford Transit Connect is successful with businesses but carves a niche for itself as a truly small van for families, paving the way for the C-Max shortly after to shrink the minivan segment (in dimensions, not in sales.)
The Ford F-150 will get mileage slightly beating Ford’s predictions of 16/23. The Ecoboost will get 16/23 while the 3.7 will get 17/24, causing Blue Oval fanboys to leap with ecstacy. Ranger sales will go in the toilet at the announcement, confirming that the compact truck fans on auto sites are a very small group and that most Americans truly don’t care about a truck being “too big”, while Nissan announces it will cancel the Frontier until the Titan is released in 2014, and Chrysler will cancel the Dodge lifestyle truck and Chevy will cancel the Colorado, leaving the Tacoma as the last compact truck in America. Two years later, noting Tacoma’s declining sales and defects to the more fuel-efficient F-150, Toyota announces the end of the Tacoma line and the creation of a new, off-road capable version of the Tundra to compete with the Raptor. When Ford releases the Ecoboost four-cylinder F-150, it puts the final nail in the compact truck market coffin, as truck fans realize they can get a full-size with the same mileage as a compact truck.
Jeep announces that, indeed, neither the Patriot nor Liberty nor Wrangler nor Grand Cherokee will get a diesel anytime soon, causing great weeping on Internet chat boards and next to nothing anywhere else. Gas prices hit $4.00 a gallon, diesel prices rise to $4.50/gallon, leading the average American to ask, “why would I buy a smelly diesel? That’s for truck drivers, silly!”
Suzuki announces that the Suzuki Grand Vitara will be converted to a crossover based on the Kizashi platform. Mitsubishi and Suzuki’s sales remain flat.
Subaru announces that it is developing a short-wheelbase version of the Forester to compete in the subcompact crossover segment.
Finally, Kia and Hyundai continue to power through the competition and sell well.
tough to argue with these 3 predictions
Gas prices hit $4.00 a gallon, diesel prices rise to $4.50/gallon, leading the average American to ask, “why would I buy a smelly diesel? That’s for truck drivers, silly!”
Silly Rabbit, Diesel’s for trucks! (Even though it’s not)
Diesel is for Euros…
1. GM will announce that it will produce a ‘segment buster’ in 2012.
All the mags except TTAC will praise it before it comes out.
(In 2012 I’ll be back to predict it’s a huge disappointment after all the build-up).
2. The Volt will be recalled for a serious engineering problem.
3. Toyota wil have another major recall and a drop in sales as they lose their ‘magic quality’ reputation.
4. Ford will have another great year of steady progress.
5. Alfa Romeo will yet again fail to appear on American shores, remaining forever “2 years away”.
6. BMW will lose some luster (and sales to Audi) as they try to introduce yet another line of cars to add to the 1,3,5,6,7, X3,X5 Mini et al series). Disillusionment among owners will be ugly to behold.
1. Gas goes to $3.50-$4.00 a gallon. People slow down again.
2. Hyundai sales hit 600,000 on the backs of the Sonata Elantra and newly popular 2012 Accent
3. The Cruze outsells the new Focus
4. The Republicans try to eliminate the Ethanol subsidy, but chicken out
5. Sarah Palin does NOT run for President
6. Chrysler’s sales go nowhere – new interiors is not a story that will drive people back to the showroom
7. Ford hits $25 per share – many Best and Brightest dance a jig
dwford,
I think you are right about the gas, and I predict your high side of $4.00 and then a slight retreat when consumption drops. I sure do hope you are right about Ford stock. I bought a boatload at slightly over 5. They are the only domestic car company that has any stones, although the mytouch system seems to me to be a mistake. How has customer reaction to this been?
With the new Elantra, Accent, Optima, etc. – Hyundai and Kia may very well overtake Honda (not including Acura) in US sales for 2011.
Hyundai will not be able to build enough cars to take Honda next year. Honda will also be whoring out Civics and Accords like nobody’s business since both are in the final year of life. I predict Hyundai will announce a new North American assembly plant.
for 2011 I don’t foresee GM improving much, their shares never quite reaching their stated goals as so far I haven’t seen too much to lead me to believe they are making the necessary changes NOW.
Fiat and Chrysler, both making huge strides to improve their models and overall business do relatively fine on their own, but together, are a force to be reckoned with, progress is steady, but sure on most if not all segments, except for the big trucks as gas hovers ever closer to $4 a gallon or above.
RAM will have to do some rethinking on its trucks to survive as gas goes up, and perhaps stays up. I predict gas will not get much below $4 a gallon anytime soon and this may well be the future of gas for ALL.
America will slowly come to grips w/ overly large, gas guzzling vehicles and begin to discover the benefits of smaller cars with smaller motors, even if of the ICE variety.
I predict fully electric plug-ins will be slow to take off once people realize that getting them charged isn’t gonna be easy for many until the infrastructure is in place, meanwhile, hybrids will be mighty popular. Fiat offers a very small, thrifty 500 hybrid with the 900cc twinair motor, mated to a hybrid drive train and with small batteries that all can fit in the engine compartment, making it the first hybrid to have a regular interior without storage compromises.
Fiat brings over the TwinAir motor as a regular motor option along side the 1.4L 4 cylinder, the iconic 500 becomes quite popular, along side the Fiesta, the Mazda 2 and other similar sized cars.
Mazda introduces a new motor series and an improved engine for the Mazda 2 that brings in some improvement in performance and improves mileage.
And by years end, I’ll be driving either a gently used or new vehicle to replace my 18 YO Ford Ranger truck.
The small truck segment gets another look and makes steps for a comeback as gas prices go up.
Hatchbacks and small wagons make a comeback in the US.
Toyota and Honda continue to sink unless they do something about it and the Toyota works to improve gas mileage of their entire truck line, including the Tacoma to try and beat Ford at their game.
The Ranger ends up getting a reprieve and is on the drawing board for a total redesign/update as it needs it badly if its to succeed.
1. Fiat 500 will be a sales flop. I like this car but it has not been marketed properly and Americans still do not like small cars.
2. There will not be enough ev’s made to tell if consumers really want them or not. Many will be purchased by government agencies and corporations.
3. Cadillac will go forward building an Epsilon based vehicle that will compete primarily with the Buick Lacrosse illustrating that they have not learned from their mistakes.
4. Gas will be above $4.00/gallon be year end.
I second your #1: The Fiat 500 will utterly flop in the U.S. market. I haven’t driven one, but I saw one driving down the road. What a depressing sight. The Fiat 500 represents a premature solution to a bleak future (of post-peak-oil, vehicle compromise, for Americans). The Chevy Aveo and Cobalt, new or used, have the 500 beat.
I fully agree with the Fiat 500 being a sales flop. If they think they are going to hit 50k units of the 500 they are gonna be sorely disappointed. That being said I think Chrysler will do alright with it’s other new models such as the Durango, Grand Cherokee, maybe even the 200, and the 300.
Here in Canada gas will be $1.50 / litre (approx $5.70 / gallon – not impossible since we hit $1.47 / litre at the last oil spike and are floating around $1.15 / litre now)
Other websites will attack TTAC as part of the mainstream media
Only if Ed is stupid enough to quote me while on Fox News.
Wild-eyed, eh…
MIT will announce that they have created an engine that runs on emotions. It is made out of the pink ooze that flows in the abandoned pneumatic rail line under Manhattan.
Mazda will cancel the CX-7 and bring over the Mazda6 estate diesel six speed. It will be sold out for months.
Upon seeing the success of the Murano convertible, Chevy will make a Suburban convertible. It will become the official vehicle of Texas.
I only hope GM can get some sort of reprieve from these new front impact laws for pedestrians…because that would be awful to not allow longhorns mounted up front or have them “softened”.
I guess it’ll just add to another reason why Texas should secede and I should move back (prior).
A Suburban convertible? That is my favorite prediction.
You will not like my top ten. But here it is…
1) Gas goes up to the $4.50 level thanks to increased demand in Southeast Asia and dollar devaluation.
2) Europe experiences a severe currency crisis and agrees to effectively inflate their currency while cutting spending. The VW TDI models experience their best sales year ever.
3) Toyota hybrids become popular again. The CR-Z starts getting traction compared with right now, but still underperforms. The Insight remains a heavily discounted bastard child.
4) Secret mumblings begin within Fiat to sell certain portions of Chrysler, while folding the rest. A Chinese company agrees to purchase the marketing and distribution arms of the company, but backs away at the last minute due to a lack of product.
5) Minivans, SUV’s, and full-sized pickups all tank… again… but not as badly in percentage terms as in 08′.
6) The Fiesta and Cruze have moderate sales for their group. Fiesta surprisingly does better than the Cruze and puts Ford on the map with the under-40 crowd. The Civic, Corolla and Elantra still lead the segment. The Versa remains strong and the Fit improves.
7) Bribery and corruption issues take center stage in the industry.
8) TTAC emerges from the shadows of Farago and is no longer seen as the home of ‘GM bashing’ and the ‘flying vagina’. Ed does a half dozen more NYT pieces and I do two.
9) The US auto industry relapses into an 11 Mill a year average due to high unemployment and global economic uncertainty related to government debts.
and finally…
10) Stability issues in Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, and the Middle East all push oil prices to all time-highs. Cash for Clunkers II becomes a reality by late August despite all the political posturing of ‘fiscal conservatives’. The author takes steps to establish a second home outside the US.
My fearless forecast for 2011:
1. The price of gasoline will hit somewhere between $3.50 and $4.00 a gallon.
2.The market for used Geos will take off.
3.The sales of Fiat vehicles will do well, but that will not help Chrysler a great deal as they are too reliant on sales of trucks and SUV’s as gas prices rise.
4. The Chevy Volt will suffer recalls.
5. Kia and Hyundai sales will continue to grow exponentially.
6. Toyota will slowly recover from their problems; hybrid vehicles will sell extremely well.
7. Honda will continue to limp along without a sense of direction.
My 2011 predictions…
1. Chinese growth will slow a bit, and with it their demand for oil will moderate. Gas gets to around $3.50/gallon but may spike based on an unforeseen natural disaster.
2. Volkswagen’s attempt to build market share in North America will not meet expectations.
3. The Fiat 500 will find a niche following, just like the Mini.
4. The Volt will do okay. Not a panacea, but you’ll see them on the road.
5. Mahindra will finally get its truck into the U.S. market, but the wait won’t have been worth it.
1. As others have noted, the Hyundai/Kia juggernaut expands as the Sonata continues to roll and is joined by the attractive new Elantra.
2. Chrysler’s market share stabilizes, as the attractive new interiors keep the faithful in the tent, but the poor fuel economy limits gains in share. New 500 fails, as people don’t see shy they should pay up vs. Fiesta/Fit/Mini for an unreliable Fiat.
3. Car buyers increasingly value electronics/entertainment as a purchase criteria. Google gets in the game when automakers realize their best move is to simple provide an Android dock and let the market provide what they cannot. Ford does well here.
4. Overall sales will be up, likely in the 13M range, as consumers come back. Well, those who are still employed do. This helps GM retain its current level of sales, but they lose share in the expanding market. Too few new introductions beyond the Cruze.
5. EPA reverses itself and allows automakers a 10% boost to their City MPG numbers if they install start/stop systems. Automakers start to follow Ford in adopting this technology across their portfolios.
6. Diesels and manual transmissions continue to lag as few buyers outside TTAC give a damn. Wagons too. Sorry.
7. Fiat, impoverished by poor results in Europe and its ambitions in America, is forced to sell Jeep to VW for a pittance. Nissan/Renault kicks the tires on Ram again, but can’t make the numbers work. Chrysler talks to GM about collaborating on the next generation of full size pickups, but sensing weakness, GM pulls back.
8. Honda (finally) gets its mojo back. The entire Acura model range is relaunched with improved grills and the 2013 NSX is announced. The new Civic and Accord are introduced, and have not grown an inch this time. They lack some of the value and DI of Hyundais, but their superior refinement wins over the press, while consumers continue to value their reliability.
9. Mitsubishi and Suzuki finally throw in the towel and leave the US market. Mazda looks around for a partner, and deepens their relationship with Nissan/Renault. Subaru becomes resigned to its fate as makers of AWD Corollas, Camries and Highlanders. Will the boxer survive? Stay tuned.
10. Ford decides to throw down the gauntlet and starts development of a large RWD platform. Get ready panther-lovers: the 2014 Crown Vic is just 32 months away.
Regardless of what happens, happy new year to TTAC and the B&B!
1. $4 dollar gas and everything that usually goes along with that scenario.
2. The violence in Mexico starts to effect the Mexican auto industry. Disruption at either a parts plant or one of the assembly plants.
1. Gas hits $4.00/gallon leading to:
1a. Upswing in compact/subcompact vehicle sales
1b. More efficient V6 and turbo 4 cylinder engines being offered in trucks, CUVs, and SUVs
1c. Articles ad nauseum about the death of the V8, and from the NYT the death of the family car altogether.
1d. The republican candidate for office in 2012 will make China’s ‘theft’ of ‘our’ oil through increased demand a major factor in his campaign, with the possible outcome of hostilities..
2. Hyundai will have their biggest year ever
2b. Hyundai will also have their biggest recall ever
3. Ford continues to improve at a sustainable steady pace
3b. Euro designed smaller vehicles like the Fiesta, Focus, and C-Max find many happy owners with increasing gas prices.
3c. Improved efficiency from 2nd gen ecoboost engines and DSG gearboxes hold off the need for european diesels to be brought over, leaving enough time for hybrid battery tech to develop enough to fill the void.
4. Chrysler surprises a lot of people with the popularity of the Fiat models.
4a. The 500 replaces the Prius as the symbol of stylish eco-friendliness amongst the Hollywood elite and their followers.
4b. With “small-premium” becoming the big trend due to gas prices, Fiat accelerates the development and importation of US-spec Alfas.
5. Memory of GM’s bailout fades, and with new products, GM begins to regain some market share, mostly at the expense of Toyota.
5a. Some misteps with Cadillac, Buick, and Chevy stepping on each other’s toes happen, but to a lesser degree than in years before.
5b. The Volt continues to be a minor niche vehicle, and the hype machine moves to the new Corvette – now with turbo 6 cylinder power.
6. Toyota continues on its course of blandified, decontented, more-cheaply built automotive appliances.
6a. The Toyota faithful continue to eat them up without question.
6b. Thinking consumers start to look elsewhere and find superior vehicles in the lineups of Ford, GM, Chrysler, and Hyundai.
As said above, $4+ gas prices in the US. Chrysler begins to die yet again. With only trucks and SUVs to sell…their dealerships look like the summer of 08 again. The US government will continue to print money to prop up GM. But can’t afford to save both.
With already titanic unemployment, and millions about to be cut off benefits, the US market begins to contract again. Perhaps once and for all.
Hyundai sells every Sonata and Elantra they can build. Chevy has to deeply discount Cruises to get them out the door(wait that already started). Ford does the same with the Fiesta.
Honda…well, the new Civic will sell well. Accord will still be ugly.
The European union falls apart. The civil unrest there makes auto sales very hard. Fiat, already being propped up, will find itself in deep trouble. They end up selling Ferrari to some Middle Eastern countries soviergn fund.
And probably at least one new major war to distract from the worsening social and economic conditions.
The number of Panther orders will outstrip production capacity, resulting in MY2011 cars in production well into 2012 and playing hell with the factory closure.
A tuning house will start making some rumblings about an RWD Taurus. it will remain vaporware.
New car buyers will be hopelessly confused by the upmarket shifting of the Focus and introduction of the Fiesta. Sales of both models will be harmed.
Tragic offroad-racing accidents will continue to be highly publicized – the state of California will begin moving to ban it – initial draft legislation will be extremely broad and essentially blanket-ban ALL competitive motorsport and all offroad driving. Whether that scope is revised is beyond my ability to foretell.
Backlash against revenue-cameras (speed cameras) will continue. Large cities will by and large cease their contracts. Small towns will replace them – gone are the days of the small town cop camping the stupid abrupt 35mph speed limit change – now he’ll pull you over for some other imagined offense, and you’ll get your speeding ticket in the mail on top of the ticket he’ll write you for some bizarre new local ordinance that prohibits through traffic.
Conan O’Brien edition SHO. Same interior and exterior color as his ’92, and a special grille insert that swaps the Gillette nose for one styled after the Mk2 Taurus.
The Chrysler brands will continue to be irrelevant – Fiat, however, will succeed on account of a combination of the retro movement and certain people’s desire to be “ironic”. Early whisperings of Fiat returning Alfa Romeo to America.
Your Prediction about Ford with the Fiesta and Focus could be right. Ford has been down this road before in the 90’s when they introduced the too small and too expensive Contour and the too expensive and underengineered Taurus. Both flopped as customers used to Ford’s being cheap recoiled at the higher prices. One difference today: Ford doesn’t need to sell 400k of each to keep the lights on, they can be profitable at much lower volumes.
Many TTAC readers will marry and start a brood. When their wives complain about their rough riding whips, Sajeev will get a constant stream of requests asking how to soften their various sport suspensions. Tire makers will see an upsurge in sales of higher profile tires. “Baby aboard” signs will sprout once again. Minivans with vestigial ground effects (a pathetic conceit) will signal the last gasp of a lost generation. Everything old will be new again.
Here’s what I fear will happen, even as I hope it won’t:
* Ferdinand Piëch will get his way, and Alfa Romeo will become Audi Romeo.
* Sergio Marchionne’s lack of investment in new models will cause Fiat’s market share to plummet even more.
* The Chryslers and Dodges that are brought to Europe and rebadged as Lancias and Fiats will be huge flops.
Gas: $3.75 due to middling recovery and low (ish) demand.
GM does OK in a 12M / year market. After tanking during UAW talks, GM stock recovers nicely to $40 after deal. Ownership works and everyone’s giddy until SEC opens insider trading investigation.
Euros muddle through – drama limited to a Portugal Bailout. Greece continues decline. Enterprising German politician suggests using Leopard tanks to drag Acropolis to Berlin as collateral.
US averts double dip – but economy weak. Housing weak, lots of muni bond defaults, and major uncertainty with (possibly bankrupt) states like CA, IL, NY…
The Tesla Model S will remain behind schedule and unavailable for sale in 2011. Ditto the Fisker Karma.
1. Gas prices will continue to climb. This will cause:
– decreased sales of trucks, SUVs and crossovers that have propped up Detroit.
– increased sales of “sensible” cars like Fusion, Malibu…
– decreased travel, which means fewer rental cars bought and lower fleet sales.
2. Real rough times for Chrysler.
– Fiat will do well out of the blocks, but we’re looking at Smart FourTwo Part Deux (or is that doo-doo?)
3. Hyundai/Kia will continue to do well.
4. The small number of us who are automobile enthusiasts will continue to restrain our urges to wring-the-necks of Toyota Pious drivers.
Any planned vehicles that interest me will be commercial flops or never even get past the focus group stage. Keywords: diesel, stick, fullsize wagon, compact pickup, RWD
Realizing “cash for clunkers 2” would have negligible impact, gov’t will find new ways to “encourage” people to buy new cars, such as mandating that vehicles 20+ YO will be forced to have “historic vehicle” plates, which come with driving restrictions.
With the passing of Hummer brand behind us, a new vehicle (SUV) will be chosen to be the poster-child for wanton energy consumption. There will be a resurgence of news of SUVs being vandalized by enviro-nuts in the name of saving the world.
Corn ethanol subsidies will persist. After a protracted court battle, EPA will approve the sale of E15 for use in newer cars. Unscrupulous gas stations will fill all their tanks with E15 so they can attract customers with a lower gas price, to the detriment of older cars, boats and small engines.
TTAC posters will continue to profess that a hybrid vehicle doesn’t need to “pay for itself” with a lower TCO versus conventional ICE-powered vehicles. Meanwhile in the real world, most consumers considering a hybrid purchase will continue to place “saving money” above “better for the environment” in their priorities.
Still no flying car for you.
The Tea Party will win the hearts and minds of Americans everywhere when they join with the greens to end ethanol subsidies. The Sanders/Paul Act of 2011. This summer, with the price of oil linked to the price of corn, food prices will skyrocket. The public outcry will be immediate and corn will be out of our gas as quickly as it was out of our breads.
GM stock tanks when the institutionals and insiders can sell off. (look at Tesla, I am assuming the same rule applies to GM)
Redesigned Focus has an explosive year, stealing market share from all competitors, but especially the Mazda 3 – the Cruze flops hard!
Interesting reading the above and will wander back later to see what awaits below.
Since I am here will toss in my non-politically correct dos centavos, vatos.
La Raza will continue expanding across the USA.
An increasing number of USA citizens will ascertain that acquiring a job within the USA requires mastering Espanol.
Buenos dias, Senior Obbop. Feliz ano nuevo.
People will start living in their now parked cars, because they can no longer afford to pay their mortgages, or pay to fill the tank.
Divisions and rancor of any kind will be gone from TTAC, as liberals lie down with the conservatives, and Panther fans work with Porschephiles to beat their swords into plowshares, or something like that.
Enough dreaming…
Gasoline will climb slowly throughout the year, but the mainstream media will largely miss this story, because the price increases won’t be sudden.
The Ford Focus will sell below expectations, but it will sell well to the younger, better educated customers that have largely shunned Detroit products, and a surprisingly high percentage will be in the upper trim levels. Ford will thus gain a more “upscale” reputation than Chevrolet or Dodge. Unfortunately, these crucial facts will be missed by many news outlets, as they will focus more on total sales figures.
GM will continue to sputter along, with any increase in Cruze sales being held canceled out by lackluster Impala and Malibu sales. The Cruze’s main stumbling block will be that too many old-school GM customers aren’t about to pay that much for a smaller car, no matter how good it is, and too many old-school GM dealers aren’t about to push them to do so, when the Impala sits right on the same showroom floor. GM will also be plagued by too many backbenchers cluttering the lineup, and uneven reliability survey results.
The new Honda Civic will be an excellent car, but it won’t stand out as much in its segment, which will present new challenges to both Honda and its dealers. The latter, in particular, are not used to having potential customers threaten to visit the showrooms of competitors. The OLDER customers who have been driving Hondas since the 1980s and 1990s will largely remain loyal, but younger customers will be more willing to look at the competition. Thus, Honda could be faced with an aging customer base, and the challenges that brings.
Speed enforcement efforts generate even more skepticism, as the general public becomes increasingly aware that revenues, not safety, primarily drives enforcement efforts. The increased capability, refinement and quiet of even smaller cars will have more people happily cruising along at 80 mph on interstate highways, and not too happy when they get pulled over for doing it.
“Driving for fun” will become a new movement, as people who can afford to live close to work will take mass transit, or boast about short commutes, and drive for fun and relaxation in the countryside during the weekends, on vacation, etc.
I’ll try.
GM will continue to grow more slowly than the market as a whole, and everyone will wonder why.
Ford will either beat or come very close to GM in sales in the US.
Chrysler will have some great new vehicles that will not sell as they would have in 2010 due to rising fuel prices. They will, however, retain the minivan crown.
Honda will introduce an ugly Civic
The Crosstour will not make the top 10 in sales. (OK, this one was too easy)
OK… I’ll play along:
1) Several factors including a gulf hurricane scare will cause gas to spike to over $4 again. An unforeseen event (like an oil tanker mishap or small-scale terrorist attack) will cause even more panic, SUV sales continue to slide, yet trucks stay strong.
2) The Fiat 500 will draw crowds whenever it shows up, driving traffic to dealers, but sales will drop off very quickly. The ad campaign will be quarky and cute, with some YouTube parody becoming an instant classic.
3) Honda will jump (back) on the “turbo” bandwagon, offering a turbo in the Accord and as an option in most Acuras, claiming (like the CR-Z) you can have sporty and economy all in one package. This new car will pace the Indy 500 in 2012. The interior will feature some kind of new eco-friendly materials that only comes in a terrible color called “marsh green”. which actually looks blue-ish grey in photos.
4) Hatchbacks will start to become more popular when people realize the Prius is actually a 5 door. Mini van sales will drop off a cliff as a result.
5) V8s sales will become few and far between as V6s become very popular even in trucks & sports cars thanks to Dodge and Ford’s efforts.
6) GM’s stock will tank when people realize they are losing money by leasing Volts. A union scuffle will result in government intervention.
7) A new compact truck concept will come out from Kia and/or Hyundia. Toyota will claim they too have one in the works but its based off an 4WD Subbie platform and thus can’t tow anything.
8) Hyundia and Ford will make big gains as Dodge continues to fall of people’s radar. Toyota sales drop too as people grow sick of the Camry. Ditto Lexus as their offerings continue to make less and less sense. Mini finally loses its mojo, but BMW starts gaining ground. VW too makes gains only to hit with a massive recall similar to pedal-gate, were their safety creed comes under fire.
9) Jeep will announce a special edition Wrangler (more chrome!) with a summer block buster movie tie-in promotion. Along with a “Jeep” brand recreational vehicle… something like a snowmoblie, jetski or ATV.
10) Rumors of a turbo charged mid-engine Corvette will reach fever pitch (see #5) after some leaked document and fuzzy cell-phone images turn up on the internet. Later its relieved that these were leaked on purpose to judge fans reactions. Regardless of the out rage its announced that in 2015 Chevy will no longer offer any V8s in their line up.
Bonus: Chevy will announce a new platform for the “future” (no time line given) using the next generation Volt as the basis. There will be a wagon-like CUV and a sporty hatchback shown in “near production trim”, that (in the end) will become 2013 Buick models in China.
I’ll add to the cacaphony above:
– Gas prices will push northward of $4/gallon, causing SUV and truck sales to plummet
– Hyundai sales will continue in a meteoric rise
– Ford will continue with steady growth, and a steady increase in market share gains
– Sales in China will top 22 million next year, pushing the price of gas even higher
– Sales in North America will top out at 12 million units, and will start receding in 2012
– Mazda will begin to be romanced by Renault/Nissan
That’s all I’ve got.
I only have bad news :(
Saab, my beloved Saab, will leave the U.S. market despite having darn good products (finally). This is entirely their fault for not advertising.
VW will regret trying to lure CamCord buyers in N.A. Traditional VW buyers will hate the bloated, decontented messes that the new Jetta/Passat have/will become and they still won’t be big enough and cheap enough to entice mainstream Americans to bite.
The Fiat 500 will fizzle out, IF it ever takes off.
Here is a wish: Ford and Mazda start making the front clips of their cars optional/interchangable. Like the Fusion but hate the grill? Here’s a Milan grill for ya!
Scary, but:
In light of the upcoming hybrid and pure-electric vehicle sales increases over the next decade, some greedy bureaucrat with broach the subject in front of the press of supplementing gasoline tax revenue by introducing national road-user fees to be collected using transponders. No major or secondary highways are to be exempt. In a feeble attempt at damage control, his (or her) superiors will drag him by the collar into the back room. The verbal reaming will sound something like this:
“You $@%#ing idiot!! STFU about that! The peasants aren’t supposed to know about this until AFTER they’ve all bought electric cars, not before! You and your big mouth! You may have just killed the whole $#@%ing scheme! How the hell are we going to put the genie back in the $#@%ing bottle?!!”
A TV show (maybe Brian Ross?) will hire an engineer to defeat the overcharge protection mechanisms in the Volt and or Leaf. The end result will be a huge roman candle from the lithium batteries. Not sure if there will be an effect on sales.
These are my perpetual predictions that I’ll continue to use from 1990 to 2040…
1) Diesels are now clean, not like those from ______ (today’s year minus 5).
2) The new Porsche 911 is the best handling yet, not like the woolly handling monsters of ______ (today’s year minus 10).
3) Fuel cells are only 10 years away.
4) Detroit will be on a turnaround once next year’s model of _____ comes out.
5) Product is king! (Except where price is king! Or promotion is king!)
6) The domestics have almost caught up to the Japanese in quality.
I was reading classic 911 tests this weekend, bunch of them on Caranddriver.com. Every single one from 1976 930 to the present day contains some passage “the snap oversteer of the old 911 has been quelled, this is a 911 for normal people…”
plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose!