For all the debate about strong sales of trucks and SUVs this year, American gasoline consumption is actually going down and may have reached an all-time high. Fox News may filed the AP story under “Disasters” but the worst news in the story is that
America will continue to burn more gasoline than any other country, in total and per capita, for decades to come. China is second in total consumption, but, despite its explosive growth, still uses just half of what the U.S. uses. Canada is second in consumption per capita but is on its own path toward a more fuel-efficient economy.
While America’s diminishing demand will temper global demand, it will be more than offset by rapidly growing demand in China, India, the Middle East and Africa. As a result, declining U.S. gasoline demand will not bring lower pump prices.
The AP gives most of the credit for the projected decline in gas consumption to demographic shifts and government policies like CAFE standards and ethanol blending credits. The coming of electric and plug-in vehicles is even given some credit as a long-term driver of lower gas consumption, but the success of alt-energy cars does seem to be dependent on the pump price of gasoline. And, in fact, if you look at medium-term historical gas prices it seems that unleaded is unlikely to ever cost less than it did in 2006, indicating that a gas tax would have been at least as effective as the convoluted CAFE and ethanol policies. Now that gas seems unlikely to ever drop below the $2.50/gallon mark, baby boomer demographics and complex government policies need not take all the credit.
So, we Canadians are second, only to the United States in per capita consumption.
Lets see 1.10 a litre converts to 4.09 CDN = 4.07 USD. So much for the “higher price higher tax” translates to less consumption theory eh?
So marginally higher gas prices ($1) means Canucks, who are JUST like us but cheaper, use an average of 1196 liters per person (I use Roman Catholic to make it bit easier on you) while Americans use 1618 liters per person. Sounds as if higher gas taxes are working.
The CERA analysts are largely correct. Take out a bunch of SUV, stop kids driving, and throw in a bad economy and gasoline demand peaks. And the amounts are staggering; I remember looking at a DoE study that said the US was only producing 6m b/d of gasoline? Some is imported, but gasoline demand is really really down.
A gasoline tax that takes us to about 5 dollars a gallon would be a lot of good. If anything, Obama’s wasteful spending on highway repaving has shown me just how bad US roads are and how we need a lot of investment to bring them back to bristol.
$1.OO a US gallon more in Canada, is a little more than marginal. 6O loonys to fill an Impala.
I like to think of us as being frugal….cheap seems a little harsh
mikey is right. We’d still drive just as much, even if we were all forced to do it in 72 Impalas.
I’d believe the all-time high if our population were stable, or growing very slowly. But we added nearly 30 million in the ’00s, and the Pew Research Center projected that the population, 296 million in ’06, would grow to 438 million in 2050 (82% of the growth due to mass immigration).
Excellent point.
We, the People, pretty much attained ZPG (zero population growth) by our own wants, desires and needs in the early 1970s but Ted Kennedy, his ilk and others desired to initiate a new round of MASS immigration and decided to basically ignore the even larger numbers entering the USA via the route that bypassed the basic criminal and health background checks to the extreme detriment of some USA socio-economic classes and that produced many long-term negative effects.
Look to history for the sordid details the mass media simply ignores and for various reasons feels compelled to sugar-coat.
For us old-timers that can recall the less crowded conditions of those now long-ago times, when a two-lane road was accommodations enough where presently a 6-lane freeway or more is inadequate (depending upon location) and the many societal differences between then and now, it is hard to be non-nostalgic even when the positice changes are considered.
Heck, even driving a BIG rig was much more fun back in the late 1970s than the obviously more road-crowded late 1980s were.
It even became difficult merely to find a place to park to clamber back into the sleeper for a snooze and the once fairly common quiet place to park and relax awhile, away from life’s hustle and bustle became increasingly difficult barring the declining areas out west far from major metro areas but even THOSE areas held restriction not present in the “old days.”
Sadness erupts in this Old Coots soul of days gone forever and how much of so many things a new and semi-new generation will likely never experience first-hand.
So maybe a dime/gal on fuel or a quarter on imported crude wouldnt be a bad idea? Cars are kinda cool…bridges that dont fall down and smooth roads? Priceless
I really think this has nothing to do with CAFE. High gas prices trigged more fuel efficient buying of cars. Cash for clunkers probably helped out here a bit as well, since many big trucks were turned in for more fuel efficient trucks or cars. That is probably the only gov’t program that helped at all.
On top of all this is the recession that we are in that put a lot of people out of work… and therefore no need for commuting for many of those people. I know my commute has been faster from the recession. Less fuel burned during it as well.
I doubt cash for clunkers made much difference. There were analyses showing that the replacement cars were not much more fuel efficient than the cars that got turned in. Furthermore, the cars retired represented a small percentage of the fleet. CfC was more of a stimulus program for Detroit than anything else. But raising the cost of gasoline has a profound effect on how much people drive and what they buy if they buy a new vehicle during the time when prices are up.
The price of gas certainly has a profound effect on me. I could get rid of my comfortable Impala,or my gas hog Jimmy. Or, drive less. I chose the latter. I’m retired and live in suburbia. A lot of my fellow Candians, don’t have that option.
I got to feel for some of my former work mates. They retired and moved out to the middle of nowhere. Now they find themselves driving back to the city two or three times a month.
CAFE had an enourmous effect – up until about 1984. Nowadays they keep playing with it in very weak ways, so no, I don’t think CAFE hasn’t done much lately. Light trucks still have far to lax a standard, and heavy trucks are still unregulated (a big mistake, in my opinion – considering how much CAFE improved fuel efficiency in lighter vehicles, a similar rise in efficiency of heavy vehicles would be wonderful).
I agree, unemployment and conservation have had a much larger effect.
A $10 per gallon gas tax would be great in that it would destroy the pathetic little lives of the “little people” and get them off the roads and stop them from breeding. As the American Empire crashes from it’s own internal self-destruction of government-loving Democracy retards who vote themselves into slavery by trying to vote themselves other people’s earnings, less energy consumption is predictable.
Ed or Bertel or sombody. Do us all a favor. Dust off Robert Farago’s “ban button” and dump this troll.
I’ll second mikey’s vote.
I third Mikey’s vote.
Nah, leave him.
I personally get a kick out of someone smack-talking public education while making egregious spelling and grammar mistakes. It’s practically a TTAC meme at this point.
Actually, he’s right that a gas tax is terribly regressive and hurts the “little people” – because the US has subsidized private transportation, ripped out it’s streetcar lines, and built it’s cities around cars, in many areas they are a necessity. For the “little people” such as the proverbial stripper in the Pontiac Vibe (gotta keep my examples up to TTAC spec), a rise in gas prices actually affects their pocketbook in a noticeable way (despite often driving relatively efficient small cars).
The problem is simply that we’ve boxed ourselves into a nasty little corner and the external realities of rising oil prices can’t be fought. At this point, US demand matters less each day with China and other developing countries in the mix. Besides that, we don’t have the oil (even if we drilled everywhere it would not change circumstances). US gas consumption will go down no matter what we do at this point – the question is whether we do it intentionally or whether it is done to us by economic collapses and such. Fun times!
I agree with Psar. Glenn Beck deserves a pseudonymous blog outlet as much as anyone else.
I’m never going to argue against limiting the ability of morons to breed.
But, if we take all their money, wouldn’t that lead to even MORE pregnancies, most of them unwanted? Procreation is a very cheap form of entertainment.
“A $10 per gallon gas tax would be great in that it would destroy the pathetic little lives of the “little people”…”
Not as rotund as in the past me, a Decrepit One with dusty synapses, detects the possible use of irony and other writing “tricks” and methods as a way to communicate complex thoughts outside a “normal” manner.
Of course, I can be as wrong as a politician under the influence of a clever, crafty lobbyist.
Increased fuel costs would assuredly lead to decreased use, even if the poor classes received some sort of rebate at some point.
I would applaud increased fuel expense locally if it would reduce the amount of driving and constant driving style of the local hick redneck hillbilly class who too often use a driving style of accelerate, coast, accelerate coast, endlessly, and with their modified exhaust makes their constant exaggerated noise output hearable, even inside my well-insulated shanty, from several blocks away.
Then the mental midgets return, seeming to prefer roaming relatively small areas.
I would willingly reduce my own driving even more by combining trips, refrain from seeking outside-the-shanty entertainment and other ……. there goes ANOTHER poorly-muffled vehicle, one of a dozen or more heard the last couple hours and I do not live on a major street and am two long blocks away from even a moderately-trafficked arterial street.
It is just reality…. many trashy red-neck types simply lead noise-producing lives with apparently psychological reasons they possess some compulsion to produce easily-heard noise, steadily and often.
Normally muffled vehicles driven in a “normal” manner pass by unnoticed!!!! Not even heard within the shanty.
In other dwelling areas I had to contend with the constant presence of the ultra-amplified mobile bass booming. That is relatively rare around these parts. Unsure why the difference. I am simply pleased that both noise out-putters are not prevalent.
Oh goody, he’s back. Accelerate, decelerate, accelerate, decelerate. what is exactly needed to maximize audio output.
Sigh.
Get the cost of gas UP. Please!!!!! The pleasing peace it would bring to within the shanty walls would be a small price to pay!!!!!!!!
If AaronH writes like he acts in real life I imagine that he’s a rather unpleasant companion at the dinner table — if he hasn’t long-since scared everyone away from it. Indeed, he may be a lonely man this time of year. And if AaronH is a concocted cyber-character I imagine that the author laughs his head off while trying to top his last modest proposal.
I work at a major midwest urban University. 20 years ago the parking facilities were overflowing. We had to turn cars away. Today the parking lots and garages have numerous spaces available all day long.
The students get “free” madated public transportation ($120/year), so that accounts for part of the loss in daily drivers, but the faculty, staff and visitors have also turned to public transportation to avoid the high costs of driving in every day. I tell people that the parking customers have left, and they are never coming back.
I don’t know if high taxes “help”. Here in Sweden it is now 7,20 USD/Gallon.
No wonder americans use a lot of gas, huge country and too big cars. But what surprises me is that the average american uses twice as much energy as the average european. But we are living the same life style. Cars, heating, air conditioning, forth and back to Cheap Mart to buy crap imported from china, vegatibiles in the middle of the winter from heated green houses etcetera. Or there might be a potential for americans to reduce the energy usage with halfs without sacrifying a comfy life style?
Naah. The U.S. really is much larger than Sweden so there is more driving. In addition, there are 6 flights per 1,000 persons per year.
Sweden? 3 flights per 1,000 persons.
A small turnaround in economic performance/employment and Americans will be off again in their wasteful ways.
Not necessarily. Many of those SUVs were bought with home equity that doesn’t exist any more. Plus, the first Baby Boomers are now in their 60s, and from what I’ve seen, older people drive less. So, while aging Baby Boomers will be straining Medicare and Social Security to their limits, they will be using less gasoline while doing so.
geeber:
I am a card-carrying baby-boomer about to turn 60. The way things are, I’ll never be able to retire unless my eyes and/or health fails and I can no longer use a computer or drive. My commute will double next year, so I’ll be driving more, just not so much joy-riding, at least not more than we currently do. We didn’t waste our home equity, either, so I guess I’m still among the “productive” group!
It would be interesting to see this graph back to the 1960s. I suspect each major dip coincided with an economic recession. As soon as the economy recovered, so did consumption. The difference this time is that the past 10 years of prosperity were built on loans rather than paychecks. People are now paying down those loans rather than continuing to spend.
Far be it for me to rain on anyone’s parade but instead of gas consumption, wouldn’t be more relevant for miles travelled? Seems to me that countries that have lots of wide open spaces and the tendency to spread out would drive more, yes?
I’m not sure if this is the right metric. Do we care about gas usage more? Pollution or some other metric (time waiting in traffic?)
I travel many more miles but probably use about the same or slightly more gas than a year ago, as I went from 7 miles from work (~ 15mpg in all city traffic for 45min-1hr minutes) to 35 miles from work (43mpg on my motorcycle 8 months a year, 32-33mpg in the wfies car or 23mpg in my car.
Why move so far from work? My apartment in Chicago (renting) cost 50% more than my house where I live now…
Total US gasoline consumption trending down is a good thing. Oddly enough, the fact that global demand is likely to keep prices going up is part of that dynamic.
One major factor which isn’t often discussed are the attitudes and behaviors of younger people. Today’s 20-something is, generally speaking, less enamored of cars, trucks and gotta-have-a-V8 thinking than today’s 50-somethings were in their youth. Cars are seen more and more as a costly PITA which are to be avoided if possible.
The times, they are a changing.
A PROCLAMATION:
“Appointing Obbop; TTAC Regular Commentor as the Official TTAC Poet Laureate”
WHEREAS
TTAC Writers in the United States; and
WHEREAS
TTAC Writers around the world, and
WHEREAS
TTAC Commentors, in the U.S. and abroad, and
WHEREAS
Current and former GM employees and executives
NOW, THEREFORE
Hereby proclaim Wednesday, December 22, 2011 and from here on as
“Appointing Obbop; TTAC Regular Commentor as the Official TTAC Poet Laureate” and encourages President Obama, Congress, state governments, TTAC, organizations, businesses, General Motors and all citizens to recognize this event, and to work together on this day and throughout the year to recognize the positive and humorous and insightful contributions of Obbop in making our lives extended considerably by laughter, much head-scratching and musing on his and our existence in general.
Amen.