Recently, we did an article in which we predicted that the big losers in the Brazilian market, in perceptual terms, were Fiat, VW, Honda and Toyota. Well the numbers bore those predictions out.
Now it’s time to see who the big winners are. Not in ranking. In terms of growth dynamics. Those who gain more than the market grows gain market share. And that’s what really counts.
The big winners are: Kia, BMW, Nissan and Hyundai. You could also arguably add Renault to that list. In a market that grew 10.6 percent, all of them gained quite solidly. Now Kia. Wow! That Peter guy is greatly admired down here! Kia outpaced the market a whopping 100 percent.
See the list for the top 15 selling brands below, grouped by growth.
| Maker | 2010 | 2009 | % Change | |
| 1 | Kia | 54,445 | 24,134 | 125.6 |
| 2 | BMW | 8,516 | 5,291 | 61.0 |
| 3 | Nissan | 35,908 | 23,270 | 54.3 |
| 4 | Hyundai | 106,033 | 71,069 | 49.2 |
| 5 | Renault | 160,298 | 117,528 | 36.4 |
| 6 | Mercedes Benz | 13,048 | 9,792 | 33.3 |
| 7 | Citroën | 84,063 | 69,306 | 21.3 |
| 8 | Mitsubishi | 44,611 | 37,505 | 18.9 |
| MARKET | 3,328,619 | 3,009,175 | 10.6 | |
| 9 | Ford | 336,298 | 303,964 | 10.6 |
| 10 | Chevrolet | 657,641 | 595,434 | 10.4 |
| 11 | Peugeot | 90,324 | 81,860 | 10.3 |
| 12 | Toyota | 99,572 | 93,482 | 6.5 |
| 13 | Fiat | 760,561 | 736,842 | 3.2 |
| 14 | Volkswagen | 697,257 | 684,409 | 1.9 |
| 15 | Honda | 126,166 | 125,882 | 0.2 |
So that’s how the top selling 15 car makers did in Brazil in 2010. Undoubtedly, if one of the Chinese had broken into the top 15, we would also be seeing Kia or BMW-like numbers. However they (the Chinese) are not here quite yet. Wait a year or two or three.
As you can see, the Brazilian market is split into a number of groups. The topselling are Fiat, VW and GM.
They all performed relatively badly in that they were unable to keep up with the market. Though all are producing near or at the top of their capacity. Fiat especially suffered from production undercapacity.
These numbers should be an early warning that Brazilians are tiring of the same old thing. In veering off so strongly into the loving arms of imports (here and here) the alarm should be ringing in Betim, São Bernardo do Campo and São Caetano do Sul (industrial HQs for the 3 makers respectively).
Ford is in a weird position. Though selling half of what the leaders do, they are comfortably ahead of the biggest maker in the following pack.
The next pack is very diverse. In terms of sales, in terms of country of origin, in terms of market insertion strategies. We could include everyone from Citroën (with sales of around 80K) to Renault (around 160K). This pack would include an unwelcome new kid on the block. Unwelcome because they sell only imported cars (until now). Unwelcome because they’re rocking the boat. Unwelcome because they are putting in more content for a lesser price than their rivals can manage.
Hyundai. As soon as their new factory starts producing (in 2012), you may well see Hyundai separating itself from this pack and getting closer and closer to Ford. The Japanese especially are hurting. As they see many clients going Korean, their pride and their slightly emptier wallets demonstrate their disbelief.
There is then a little group that includes Mitsu, Nissan and Kia. Citroën was here last year, but by selling more, they joined the cluster above. Probably the same will happen to Kia. This year, if they grow at half what they did last year, they’ll be grouped in the pack above. Nissan, too has hopes of moving away from this group. Especially with the beginning of sales of the March compact car. As always, it will depend on price (no, Nissan has little or no cachet in Brazil).
Below them, the final group. That sells in tiny numbers. The German lux trio is here. So is Volvo, Jaguar, Ferrari. Not to mention Chery, Changhe, Effa, Lifan and JAC. Some of this group will soon head up and join Mitsubishi in the next level (sales at 30k to 40k per year). Guess who that’ll be? My bet? It won’t be the Germans!
Why link a white belt BJJ match between two Americans?
Hahaha!
Ask Bertel! Sometimes I send suggestions and he accepts. Sometimes I send suggestions and he rules them out. This time I was too laxy to send any suggestions so he decided on the video.
Anyway, what did you think of the analysis?
Thanks for the interest.
Looks like gay porn.
Very interesting. Thanks Marcelo!
A few things jump out at me. Mitsu has as much — or more so — a presence in Brasil as it does in all of N/A. I can’t see why they can’t leverage that over here. Just bad models? Poor mgmt?
It’s obvious that the Japs are hurting big. I take it their pricing points and arrogance is hurting them. It looks like if they tried to enter the N/A market today intstead of back in the ’70’s the story would be much different. It just goes to show how bad the domestics were to allow that sort of conquest sales so easily back then.
Have you any feedback from word of mouth on the Korean’s and Chinese vehicles? Do people like them after the sweet taste of cheap pricing leaves? Particularly the Chinese, what’s the after sale servicing like. If that goes sour these conquests will be short lived.
Hey Dimwit! Thanks for the interest.
Let’s ssee if I caN ANSWER YOUR QUERIES.
Mitsu:
They tried with cars here too. But failed. They largely sell old generation Monteros and L200 pick ups here. These are built from mostly CKD kits (but 30 to 40 % local content too), but hold on to their own due to pioneering presence, Though expensive for the general populace, they are cheaper than similar offerings from Toyota and Nissan, but more expensive than Ford or GM. Also they have good marketing and for some reason, young rich ladies almost universally drive a Mitsu Pajero TR4. So they do have some cachet and history in Brazil. Though no cars.
Japanese:
I often compare their plight to Volvo. Like Volvo they have an unique selling point. In their case: reliability. Others now are catching up and, should I say it?, bettering them. Plus, in this market at least, maintenance for other brands tends to be cheaper. So the luster is wearing down.
In this market at keast we have seen this before. VW built and still wears as its main selling point the ruggedness of the Beetle. In the 60s and 70s, as Brazilians slowly motorized, ok they had a point. Now not so much. Fiat in particular now do the VW thing better than VW. Lower price, same ruggedness. VW, like the Japanese (because of culture?) have been slow to react. The market is punishing them, and they seem unwilling or incapable to reeact.
Like vwith VW, people are taking a chance on other brands. When they do it, many don’t go back. Koreans, Ford, some French are seen as viable alternatives. The Japanese (and GM which used to “own” this market in Brazil) are hurting bad.
As to Chinese, its still too early to tell. Though I’ve been noticing an ever increasing presence in the light commercial vehicles segment. Passenger cars not so much. Let’s wait a while.
As to Koreans I ‘ve been hearing a couple of things. Cars are good to better than average. Similar in technology and gadgetry to Japs (and usually better than locals), at discount prices. However, if help is needed the shine quickly comes off. Apparently, Hyundai is still not that well organized in Brazil. Parts are unavailable, the techs don’t know what to do. Prices practiced at dealerships are scandalous and their dealers are quickly earning a reputation even worse than that of the locals’ dealers! Amazing. They could be pretty well be shooting themselves in the foot. For now, all lights and attention belong to them. People are enchanted. Just cross your fingers your car is perfect. If not, you’re probably in for a rude awakening.
So Dimwit, hoped to have answered your questions. If not, please feel free to ask more. Always a pleasure!
Hola Marcello:
Who is the distributor of Hyundai and Kia in Brazil?
A Brazilian group called CAOA. I’m curious, why?
Marcelo: I just thought it could be the company that has the distribution in Chile and other countries in Latin America
hi Mercelo,
Interesting analysis I was just wondering if you could share with me the pricing and auto financing rates in Brazil. Are cars more expensive than in the states? How much more expensive are imports? Also, what are the loan rates and tenors the dealers are now promoting?
Thanks!
Marcelo how would you picture the perfect Brazilian car?