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Ford outsells The General for the second month since 1998, and suddenly an age-old rivalry seems to be spluttering back to life. And, based on our latest chart set from Morgan & Company, Ford’s got some middle-term momentum on its side… although the near-term picture is still delightfully uncertain. As we roll out our monthly sales analysis, we’ll keep a special eye on the key segment battles between these two cross-town combatants. After all, one of the all-time great American rivalries may just be as up for grabs as it’s been in decades.
[Note: given the divisive subject matter, the management asks that commenters in this thread take special care to temper their allegiances with mutual respect and an open mind.]
48 Comments on “Chart Of The Day: Can Ford Catch GM?...”
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Full disclosure, I was raised by a GM driving (Oldsmobile, Chevrolet, the occasional Pontiac) Father but my Grandfather (Dad’s father-in-law) was a strict Ford man (despite working in a GM foundary.) My first two cars were GM hand-me-downs from Dad. Every car I’ve purchase myself has been a used Ford. My fiance comes from a GM family (although mostly cause they like the dealer.) My prediction; Ford will catch and pass GM, the question is… When?
(Edit doesn’t seem to be working for me.) The only Ford my father has owned is the 1967 Mustang convertible he inherited from his Father-in-law. My Dad may be a GM loyalist but he’s not crazy enough to turn down a free Mustang.
Look at those market share slides… Urp… Pardon me a minute…
*ominous hacking noises*
*moaning*
*toilet flush*
Now where were we, Ford will surpass GM by 2015, at the latest.
Ford has the fresher lineup, and – best of all – has the Fiesta and Focus at a time of rising gas prices and curtailed Japanese production.
On the other side, GM has Washington, and Obama has an election to win. A slumping GM is not the Success Story! he needs, so I expect GM to have carte blanche to pile on incentives to keep the sales numbers up. This will be bankrolled by their vast stash of taxpayer cash.
BTW, I expect the main winner of Japan’s current problems will be Kia/Hyundai. That’s why GM won’t get much of a bump out of Japan’s pullback. I’m astounded at how many Kia/Hyundai products I’m seeing everywhere I go. Compared to K/H and Ford, GM’s cars are distinctly less nifty. GM is the buyer’s fourth or fifth choice.
Except Hyundai and Kia have a supply issue with their most popular products; not much more room for growth beyond what they sold in March (until some things change, such as the Optima starting to be built at Kia’s Georgia plant).
On a per segment basis there’s trouble in the RenCen. It’s bread and butter SUV market is not only aging but is going to get whacked by gas prices again. Ford’s is more modern, but they’re not so wedded to that market. Good thing after what happened to the Flex. :(
OTOH the light truck market is dominated by the F150. Ford’s bread and butter and I don’t see fuel pricing hurting that or even if it does, it’ll hit the others just as hard.
In the cars, GM still has small car syndrome, even the mightily hyped Cruze doesn’t seem to be an absolute homerun yet. I’ve yet to see any on the road which does surprise. Ford doesn’t have a huge breadth but seems to be executing well with what it does have while anything but Chevy and Cadillac is not getting the traction that I would expect. Bailout hangover still?
Agreed on all points.
The stereotype of GM as a company built on large SUVs isn’t very accurate anymore. The Lambdas and various GMT900 based SUVs made up just 17.5% of their deliveries so far this year.
The Silverado/Sierra 1500 also greatly outsell the F-150.
Too my surprise as I was always told if you add GMC they outsell Ford, for the last two years the ford has out sold them even combined
http://news.pickuptrucks.com/2011/03/february-2011-top-10-pickup-truck-sales.html
Trucks are going to sell. The market as a whole might take a hit as it did 3 years ago, but they’ll still sell. Remember if gas prices are the driving factor in another slide of the pickup market the F150 line will be well-positioned to increase its market share as they have the most fuel efficient entry-level offering with the 300hp 3.7L V6 plus the ecoboost V6 for the high-power guys. Dodge’s entry engine is a 3.7L V6 but with only 210hp and is rated only 20mpg highway to the Ford’s 23. A 15% increase in fuel economy on the fleet-special base configurations will weigh heavily on fleet managers’ minds if/when gas shoots further up in price.
Given Edwards warning, I think I will ignore the GM bashing in this piece.
I’d love to buy a new convertible. I’m torn in three directions.
From a user friendly, and practical stand point,the Mustang gives me a twitch. Its got presence,and its just sweet.
The Camaro, however,is not as user friendly for a late 50s couple. But O.M.G!, cartoonish and all, the looks just blow me away. That, and I’m and old school guy,that believes in and old fashioned concept called” loyalty” GM fed me and looked after me for 36 years, and still does. I really can’t see myself buying a Ford. Chrysler stuff doesn’t thrill me,and I’d walk before I drove an import.
Now the third direction, is the one that says I can’t afford either one,so shut the f– up and move on.
Interesting. I’m about two-thirds (or so) your age and I’d probably take the <strike>Sebring</strike>200 over the Mustang and Camaro precisely because it’s a more relaxed-fit ride.
But then, I have tried to fit two carseats in the back of Camaro and Mustang.
@mikey:
Maybe you should think about going classic: Bonneville Convertible
Early 70s Impala convertibles that I’ve seen haven’t been too crazy pricey. Although I’m sure he’d have to come down here among us ‘Mericans to find one that’s not rusted out.
Uh..uh….Love the 64 Bonneville, but American Pontiac parts are a nightmare to locate here.
Dan…. The big Chevys from the 70s are just a little too big for my garage.
Perhaps a used Mustang from NulloMullo?
Perhaps a used Mustang from NulloMullo? Bet he could find ya a CPO V6 model, you want stick or auto, leather or cloth?
@ Dan….Leather, six cyl {1.29 litre=$4.87 US Gallon} Low klms/miles,and a stick. I fly down, pay the tax/customs and drive it home.
Thats the plan for next winter?….I hope.
Reatta?
6 months ago I predicted Ford number one and GM at 16% share. last month it happened and it will happen again, and again. biggest difference? competent management and effective leadership. Mulally rakes in millions while Akerson/Girsky wonder who ate the strawberries…
I agree… The math is dead simple.. GM loses about 1% marketshare per year, year over year, like clockwork.. Ford has gained about 1% marketshare for the last two years…
Simple math…. Ford will pass GM within 18 months. Maybe sooner.
Wow…a “Caine Mutiny” reference…I’m impressed…Thank you Bill Ford for hiring Mulally. Now hopefully he can stick around long enough to groom a succussor. Ford has always done extremely well with its back against the wall its only when enjoying a successful run does it score an own goal.
My heart says GM. My head says Ford. I have never understood why the admittedly good F-150 outsells the Silverado/Sierra combo, but it’s all too obvious why Ford’s cars outsell GM’s.
This could shape up to be bad news for Chrysler though. The last time GM and Ford really got into a sales battle (early ’50s) it pretty well finished off the weak sister independants. I wonder if Chrysler could survive a prolonged battle today. None of thier products are really competitive without large incentives that Chrysler can ill afford. GM and Ford can’t really afford them either, but I suspect they could hold out longer if it came to that.
Here in Canada I believe Ford took #1 some time ago, but our entire market is smaller than the state of California in a normal year so I’m not sure that means much.
Interesting days ahead….
I have never understood why the admittedly good F-150 outsells the Silverado/Sierra combo
It doesn’t. The Silverado/Sierra outsold the F-150 4:3 last year. Ford’s strength is the Superduty.
Ford was well ahead of GM for all of 2010 in Canada with about a 2% higher share, and the trend continues for 2011 with a virtual tie for Jan and Ford whupping GM in Feb and Mar by about 5,000 vehicles.
Canadian car sales for the 7 major brands in 2010 were about 10% of those in the US which is consistent with the traditional 10% expectation based on the Canadian population vs. that of the US.
for the record I started my crusade against GM management incompetence back when John Smith insulted me while he ran VSSM and market share had dropped to 30%. I met Bill Lovejoy when he took over and promised him 5 points if he would implement Return to Greatness and warned him he would lose 5 points if he didn’t. next up was LaNeve who drove to my office his first week on the job. we made a deal but Wagoner killed it, and any respect I had for LaNaive. didn’t bother with Driving Miss Docherty as anyone could see she wasn’t going to last. new hope with Reuss (polite like Lovejoy) but alas he wouldn’t listen either…well he did listen a little, we got LOI’s but not much else and instead of Return to Greatness we got Ebonic and a new definition of pomposity (see John Smith and insults). sad really…
so when it comes to KNOWING what will happen, let me assure you I KNOW. I know these people and their failings, why GM is losing year after year…and specifically how to fix it. remember, it’s not narcissism if you can back it up.
I saw this same movie back in the late 80’s, early 90’s. Then along came Jac Nasser.
That’s the one thing about Ford… they seem to have a pretty strict 65 and out policy. Mulally is 64 I believe. Does Bill Ford have another one waiting in the wings as capable? Alan has given them a rather tough act to follow.
@Dimwit: It’s been so long since a Ford CEO actually retired that I’m not sure precedent holds, but Poling (who succeeded Caldwell briefly) was named CEO at age 65 and retired at 68. Perhaps more relevantly, Ford brought Allan Gilmour back from retirement to serve as CFO from 2002-2005; he re-retired at age 71.
May the best car win?
I’ll bet on Ford.
They have compelling designs that I’d actually want to purchase. A nicely optioned Focus sedan would make a lot of sense, the Fusion’s a very attractive midsize sedan and more fun than an uber-bland Camry, the new Exploder is a very good looking crossover and the ’11 Mustang (even the V6!) is loads of fun.
GM? What does GM have beyond halo cars like the ZR1, Z06, and CTS-V? Their mainstream stuff isn’t very compelling at all for anyone who owns an Asian or European car.
“When America needs a better idea, FORD puts it on wheels”
You made me think of an old Ray Steven’s song called “Working For The Japanese” (recorded after Sony bought the Rockefeller Center.) “Chrysler fights for survival, so does General Motors, Ford perseveres with “better ideas” and everybody drives Toyotas.”
I think the general public’s opinion of car companies is, based on the product the company was producing 8 years ago. If that is true, GM has some rocky years ahead while Ford will be doing quite nicely.
To Aspade
It doesn’t. The Silverado/Sierra outsold the F-150 4:3 last year. Ford’s strength is the Superduty.
you’ve made this point twice and both times have been wrong – this is easily found info;
2010 F150 sales 529,349
2010 C/K sales 370,135 + Sierra sales of 129,794 + 20,515 of Avalanche still lands ~8000 units shorts and the difference was even greater in 2009.
And neither Ford nor GM break out Superduty/HD sales
If it’s such easily found information then why didn’t you find it?
http://news.pickuptrucks.com/2011/01/the-ultimate-guide-to-us-pickup-truck-sales-in-2010.html
The Obama administration will make sure this doesn’t happen. We’re heading down a path since BK that eventually we are going to be forced to buy Government Motors junk or we’ll have a crew of union thugs at our doorstep looking to “rearrange our thought process” amongst other things if we do not.
Have another glass of Kool Aid.
GM doesn’t have to worry about me. They, and their smelly Obamaloon-worshipping unions will not have to ever worry about getting any more of my hard earned dollars than they already have stolen.
May one of their cars drive up their Obama-ends.
You stay classy.
@Psar….your politics may be a little bit left of mine. However you can say more in three words than most of us can say in thirty.
psar, Do this old Liberal a favour, and offer your speech writing services to Iggy. Were sinking fast.
Sorry guys….just a little Canuck politics there.
I’m more inclined to watch profits than market share. The best outcome for Obama and the US taxpayer alike is to sell off GM at a profit. Hence a raging incentive war does not really make sense. I don’t think it tarnishes GM if Ford continues to succeed, Detroit egos (are there any left?) notwithstanding. Shareholder value is the real issue. And I’m not in a good position to judge how well the quasi-new GM team can deliver on that, except by looking at product – on which I am presently neutral at best. More exceptional products are definitely the best cure for what has ailed GM since the 1970’s.
BTW: I’ve also procured a can of Troll Spray to ward off the inevitable Silvy “contribution” to this debate. Y’all may want to partake.
Ya….ya I’m in…… Truckducken…But we gotta save some for “GarbageMotorsCo”and “Da Coyote”
Truckducken,
You are exactly correct about profits vs market share. The sooner GM is a viable business the better for all taxpayers, US, Canadian or Ontario, all of whom have a lot riding on this. Market share is a bragging right, but profitability is a share selling point. GM has done a good job of dealing with quality issues in the last few years, now they need to focus on desireable mainstream product. I would love nothing better than to see a healthy market for domestic autos again, complete with lots of stable good paying jobs for North Americans.
Chrysler is a lost cause but I hope Ford and GM turn this into a healthy competition based on product superiority and not incentives. All North American vehicle customers would be better off.
A big wild card in the GM-Ford race will be the success of the Explorer. Ford badly needed a sales success in the 3 row segment to battle the Lamda’s (Traverse, Enclave, Acadia) and the Flex obviously is not cutting it.
If march sales are any indication….the Explorer seems to be taking off and doing quite well selling 12.5K vs. 6K in March vs. year ago. If gas prices continue to be an issue the Explorer sales rate may slow—but so will GM’s offerings so everything will be relative.
If gas prices continue to rise…Fiesta/Focus will give Ford the edge (no pun inteneded) on the small car front as they are better offerings to the Aveo/Cruze in my opinion
@Truckducken:
IIRC, GM vacillated between profit share and profit margins throughout the ’90’s. Look where that got them. It’s like trying to serve two masters. I wish they would pick a position (profilt margins would be nice…) and stick to it.
Yah! What matters is if these companies are going to pay back the tax payers. Even if both companies sell more vehicles, will they be profitable? I don’t see that happening within the foreseeable future. We simply have too many car makers selling in the US. Great for consumers. Not so hot for Ford and GM.
Aspade – pick a point.
Did ford outsell gm in pickups last year? Yes
Does ford and gm provide SD/HD breakout data? No but others such as JD powers try to figure it out.
Did “The Silverado/Sierra outsold the F-150 4:3 last year”. NO
Now, if you want to make a case about models and such, do it – but your original 2 statements are incorrect as presented.
Excluding the Avalanche & Escalade EXT, GM full size pickups outsold Ford every year from 2006-2009.
Ford edged GM 528,000 to 500,000 in 2010.
They are neck in neck for the first quarter of 2011- Ford=126,627, GM=126,400