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Every month, Bloomberg publishes monthly auto sales estimates from the leading analysts… and as this month’s survey proves, they’re all over the place. With SAAR estimates running from 11.4m units to 12.1m units, and with Ford’s growth estimates ranging from 4.2% to 11%, it’s clear that we will have some winners and losers from the bunch. In short, the analyst community needs a little truth injection… which, of course, is where TTAC comes in. This month, and every month in the future, TTAC will be grading analysts on the accuracy of their forecasts. By comparing analyses from month to month, we hope to build a case for which analysts are the most consistently accurate. Industry analysts beware: TTAC has put you on notice!
4 Comments on “How Accurate Are Auto Sales Estimates? TTAC Grades The Analysts...”
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The largest deviation from the average is only 4.2%. I consider that close enough.
Analysts don’t pick their estimates out of their ass — they receive “guidance” from the manufacturers. It is pointless to call up a handful of dealers when there are thousands. The differences largely reflect when they call (the later the better), whom they speak with, how much the contact likes the analyst (you can count on receiving misinformation if you have a sell rating on the company), etc.
Manufacturer….Estimate…..July 2011……Retail
GM…………………..7%……………….8%………….6%
Ford……………….7.8%………………9%……….didn’t report
Chrysler………….15%……………..20%………..33%
Great idea, since it is easy for analysts to make predictions and never get called out if they are consistently wrong.
I would like to see the actual figure added to the chart so it is easier to see who is right and wrong (comparing to an average doesn`t help since how close they are to the actual number is what counts, not close to each other).