Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC 11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”).
| Rank | Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrys | SAAR | SAAR Diff | OEM Diff | Overall |
| 1 | Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | 5.1% | 7.8% | 37.0% | 13.40 | 1.83% | 2.30% | 4.13% |
| 2 | Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | 5.5% | 8.3% | 35.0% | 13.40 | 1.83% | 4.20% | 6.03% |
| 3 | Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | 4.2% | 6.8% | 34.0% | 13.50 | 1.10% | 7.00% | 8.10% |
| 4 | Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | 4.5% | 7.0% | 33.0% | 13.30 | 2.56% | 7.50% | 10.06% |
| 5 | Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) | 2.4% | 6.4% | 34.0% | 13.50 | 1.10% | 9.20% | 10.30% |
| 6 | Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | 6.2% | 7.9% | 33.0% | 13.20 | 3.30% | 7.30% | 10.60% |
| 7 | Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) | 1.0% | 9.0% | 31.0% | 13.40 | 1.83% | 11.00% | 12.83% |
| 8 | Joseph Spak (RBC) | 6.0% | 8.0% | 30.0% | 13.20 | 3.30% | 10.00% | 13.30% |
| 9 | Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) | NA | NA | NA | 13.50 | 1.10% | 300.00% | 301.10% |
| 10 | Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) | NA | NA | NA | 13.50 | 1.10% | 300.00% | 301.10% |
| 11 | Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | NA | NA | NA | 13.50 | 1.10% | 300.00% | 301.10% |
| 12 | Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 13.50 | 1.10% | 300.00% | 301.10% |
| 13 | Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 13.40 | 1.83% | 300.00% | 301.83% |
| 14 | George Magliano (IHS Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 13.30 | 2.56% | 300.00% | 302.56% |
| Average | 4.4% | 7.7% | 33.0% | 13.40 | ||||
| Actual | 5.0% | 10.0% | 37.0% | 13.65 |
Looking back over four months of Grade The Analysts, Caldwell took fist place three out of four times. Having access to real-time data apparently is not everything. Jesse Toprak of Truecar, who also has access to real time data, came in third three out of four times, and once took 5th. Second place was occupied by a changing cast of bankers & brokers.
We had already given up on Bloomberg’s panel, which usually peers in its crystal ball BEFORE the year comes to an end. Finally, in the wee hours of Jan 4, the day the official results were scheduled to come in, Bloomberg caught up with its panel. Without it, there would have been nothing to grade.
The grading of the analysts was not degraded by both Daimler and BMW withholding December numbers. Autodata, which calculates the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, chose to ignore the dilly-dallying Deutsche and came out with a 13.65 million SAAR yesterday afternoon.
It may just be my browser, but it looks like there is a formatting issue as the last column of the table (Overall) is cut off. It looks fine in the “print” version though.
Perhaps Herr Schmitt will be gracious enough to let me deliver the award in person. Like the Nobel, the TTAC 11 comes with a mild financial bonus: dinner and unlimited drinks in a restaurant.
Bravo. Someone had to say it.
“…the TTAC 11 comes with a mild financial bonus: dinner and unlimited drinks in a restaurant”
And a spin around the… umm, racetrack.
At least someone has noticed how exceedingly HOT she is.
Jack, unlike your imaginary girlfriends, Jessica Caldwell happens to be a real person. Your fictional disillusions are starting to occupy facets of your psyche that were once left only for keyboard adventures.
You should seek help for this.
This advice would be more useful were it coming from a real person other than the aspect of my splintered personality manifesting itself as an extremely bitter TTAC poster.
Based on the nickname, this particular shard owns a Dvorak keyboard.
I always wonder the origin of the phase :”Who is your Daddy?” .
Applicable, it seems:
http://creepyfrog.com/overachieving-office-girl-part-2
(apologies for the link to a really crappy site)
On one condition: you have to offer the same to the other 13 on the list, that way, we can really “Grade the Analysts” (hopefully none of them are also therapists).
I’d be interested to hear about your experience with the awesomely named “Rod Lache”.
Wow, at the minimum a double threat. Smokin’ hot looks and a brain to go with the face and that million dollar smile.
When I first saw this young lass’s photo, my first thought was, “Jack’s going to try to hit that.”
Upon clicking through, the first post to this story did not disappoint.
I wish you well, Jack, and expect a full report upon your return.
Guys, go take a cold shower, she is married.
And why is nobody commenting on her skill at analyzing and predicting the often difficult to pin down auto market?
Isn’t that exactly what the title of the story did?
Does this mean that Edmunds is doing a great job of collecting sales information or that Jessica Caldwell is especially skilled at interpreting the available data to make an estimate? However she did it, her estimate was much more precise than that of higher paid analysts working in the financial industry.
i saw her at the LA auto show. she is TALL, which can be intimidating for an average size dude.
In JB’s defense, size doesn’t matter.
She can grade my analysis ANYTIME.
This simply further cements my opinion that Edmunds is still the best major online automotive magazine (read: non-blog) out there… at least from a consumer point of view. Thankfully, they even cater to gearheads, via Inside Line.
Even if the fetching Ms. Caldwell weren’t married, I’m sure her Ivy-educated reaction to Baruth is that he’s a bit of a showoff, probably living off daddy’s money, undoubtedly the type who boasts and brags to the boys, and is perhaps compensating for
feelings of inade…..well, you get the idea.
I’m really not trying to troll here; I think Jack’s an awesome writer. Maybe it’s 5 years of being married to a feminist, but I just hate it when he objectifies women. If Jack’s girlfriend hasn’t done it already, he deserves to be put in his place.