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By on March 2, 2012

 

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -5.0% 18.0% 32.0% 14.4 4.64% 18.15% 22.79%
2 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -3.6% 7.1% 32.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.34% 25.64%
3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -6.1% 14.0% 27.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.94% 26.24%
4 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -2.6% 11.0% 26.0% 14.3 5.30% 21.44% 26.74%
5 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) -5.9% 13.0% 27.0% 14.2 5.96% 21.74% 27.70%
6 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) -3.9% 5.6% 25.0% 14.5 3.97% 29.14% 33.12%
7 Joseph Spak (RBC) -5.2% 8.0% 24.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.04% 35.67%
8 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) -4.0% 8.7% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.14% 35.77%
9 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) -5.8% 5.6% 25.0% 13.8 8.61% 31.04% 39.65%
10 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) -5.6% 3.4% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 36.04% 42.67%
11 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
12 Matthew Stover (Guggenheim)  NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
13 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)  NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
14 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
16 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
17 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA  NA   NA 13.8 8.61% 300.00% 308.61%
Average -4.8% 9.4% 26.0% 14.2
Actual 1.1% 14.3% 40.4% 15.1

 

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2012

Of all the crazy ideas to come out of Dearborn in the 1960s, the Breezeway option on big Mercury cars is one of my favorites. You had a rear-canted back window that rolled up and down, providing a hurricane of wind through the car at speed, and no doubt enhancing the passengers’ intake of Vitamin CO. It made no sense, but so what? Not surprisingly, mid-60s Montereys and Park Lanes (the Mercury-ized Ford Galaxie), aren’t worth much in beat condition these days (nice ones are another story), but I still wasn’t expecting to find this one in a Northern California wrecking yard last month. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2012

Toyota says that a group of trial lawyers that sue Toyota for money “manufacture controversy where none exists and use media outlets like CNN as tools to serve their narrow, self-interested agenda.” Toyota thinks that “CNN is party of and party to an attempt by lawyers suing Toyota for money to manufacture doubt about the safety of Toyota’s vehicles in the absence of any scientific evidence whatsoever.”

Toyota makes noises that it may sue CNN. What happened? (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

General Motors sold 1023 Chevrolet Volts in February of 2012, but production figures totaled 2,347 units. Uh oh.

(Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

Audi fanboys who want emissions-free motoring will be sorely disappointed; the pilot program to try out an A3 E-Tron, will be limited to Audi personnel in Denver, Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and San Francisco.

For between 12 and 18 months, employees will evaluate the A3 e-tron, before an electric A3, based on the next-generation car, debuts in 2014. Unlike BMW and Mini, customers won’t be providing data to Audi to help develop the car, like with the test programs involving the Mini E and BMW 1ActiveE.

By on March 1, 2012

We’re still waiting to get the final February sales numbers on all automakers, but one emerging story is that the Ford Focus has finally outsold its domestic rival, the Chevrolet Cruze.

Throughout 2011 and January 2012, the Cruze led the Focus, with the Chevy beating the Ford last year by a substantial margin (231, 860 units for the Cruze versus 175,709 for the Focus). Last month the Cruze did 15,049 units versus 14,440 for the Focus. This month, independent analyst Timothy Cain is reporting that the Focus finally bested the Cruze. Chevrolet moved 20,427 Cruzes versus 23,350 for the Blue Oval’s small car.

Ford is touting a 115 percent year-over-year gain for the Focus, having sold 10,879 Foci in February 2011, but their fleet percentage back then, according to TrueCar, was just 1.6 percent.. One year later, it’s closer to 20 percent. February wasn’t even over when Ford started sending out press releases claiming that Focus sales are on pace to double this month compared to February of 2011. With reports of Ford Focus fleet sales hovering around 45 percent, we thought that it would be worthwhile to look at the fleet/retail breakdown for the Focus and Cruze in 2011, as a means of providing a bit of context . (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

I’ve been harvesting car clocks at junkyards for a few years now, stockpiling them for a project that requires at least two dozen functioning timepieces. Here’s one of the prizes of my collection. Believe it or not, this elderly mechanical clock, from a country not known for reliable machinery, still works! So, guess the year/make/model of the car that yielded this fine clock for my collection, then make the jump to see if you were right. (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

Over the last 5 years, my family has driven various Toyota and Honda hybrids for well over 100,000 miles. A 2003 Civic Hybrid, two Priuses (01 and 05), and a 2001 Honda Insight.  The results? About 50 mpg. Lots of complements with the 1st generation Insight in particular, and a driving experience totally devoid of high revs and Baruthian thrusts.

The good news is we’ve saved about $6000 in gas costs. For a family of four that can add up to a lot of alternative forms of excitement. We’re talking long vacations. Cheap cruises. IRA’s and 529’s.

Well OK. These aren’t the types of excitement that truly make an auto enthusiast. But for 98% of the driving that we do,  the hybrids have served as a brilliant way to keep us on a better financial path during this nasty recession.

There is a down side to those rosey financials. We still spent well over $6000 in gas. That money will be going, in part, to the Arab dictatorships and the Russian mafia. Not to go too deep into the ideological and religious morass. But as with many of you, I would strongly prefer to minimize our financial and political involvement with these forces.

Enter the Leaf. Can this all too known electric car solve our long-term oil dependence? Or is it a future footnote of automotive history like GM’s EV1?

(Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

We have been keeping one eye on the Nissan/Renault plans for low cost cars for a while. All indications have been that the alliance is working on a car that could sell in the neighborhood of $5,000 and still make a profit. The secret of doing this is spreading the development effort over as many units as possible.

Today, The Nikkei [sub] writes that Nissan will resurrect its Datsun brand in order to sell low-priced cars in emerging markets. According what the Nikkei “learned” without naming sources, the cars will initially be built and sold in India, Indonesia and Russia. Allegedly, Nissan hopes to “achieve annual sales of 300,000 Datsuns a year soon.” (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

Yet another hopeful maker of electric vehicles called it quits in Indiana. Bright Automotive of Anderson, Ind., announced this week that it will wind down operations after withdrawing an application for a DOE loan. This is the latest in a series of EV companies that went belly-up in Indiana, where Gov. Mitch Daniels had vowed in January 2010 to make the state “the electric vehicle state.” The Chicago Tribune lists the failed companies: (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

If you are thinking of buying some stock of an automaker, now could be a good time.  Not because of the strong sales. Because of dropping incentives, paired with strong sales. This indicates a strong first quarter, which should drive up stock prices. (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

February sales are coming in stronger than expected, indicating a post-Presidents Day boom. Chrysler and Volkswagen lead the charts with a 40 and 43 percent gain over February 2011. (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

First new car sale numbers are coming in for February, and they are better than the most optimistic projections.  Chrysler Group is up 40 percent, with the sales of Chrysler branded cars up a whopping 114 percent. GM did beat expectations by registering a small 1.1 percent gain on 209,306 units sold in February. Analysts had expected a drop of GM sales by several percent. (Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

This Beijing policeman has a hard look at this BMW X1. Not because it’s extremely dusty. A few days parked outside in Beijing, and any car looks like that. No, this car has no license plates. The plateless car has been gathering dust for a while on Beijing’s streets.
(Read More…)

By on March 1, 2012

The European malaise seems to have selective impact on European automakers. Audi announced record results today. Audi reported an operating profit of €5.35 billion ($7.16 billion) in 2011, and wants to have even better results this year. (Read More…)

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